NZDUSDAfter a month of bears- indicators suggest the bulls will take over in Nov. we can expect a 50% correction with a good possibility of returning to the last major zone above...
NZDUSD trade ideas
Quick Swing on NZDUSDSeeing an impulse move higher earlier today could indicate a shift in trend as NZDUSD has been on a downtrend since the start of October. As price consolidates, I am keen to find a trade setup on the M15 timeframe with a 20/30pips RR.
Let's see how this trade idea pans out!
NZDUSD in a Clear Bearish TrendNZDUSD in a Clear Bearish Trend
NZD/USD is moving inside a "Descending Channel" in a well-defined bearish trend.
The market's focus has been on the US election results, with the anticipated Trump victory supporting USD strength throughout the month.
Now that the election period is winding down, market activity is slowing.
However, as long as the price continues to respect this pattern, there is a chance for further downside in the short term, as shown on the 60-minute chart.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
nzdusdnzdusd for buy
The pair is in a good buying zone after executing the Turtle Soup trick and taking liquidity from the FVG area.
NZDUSD Bullish viewNZDUSD may take a turn from the marked area.
Wait for the reversal confirmation and trade accordingly.
View is shared only for the educational purpose only.
NZD/USD at Key Support Zone: Signals Potential ReversalThe NZD/USD pair has been in a long term downtrend, with multiple ups and downs. Recently, the pair has formed an AB=CD harmonic pattern, reaching point D near a critical support level around 0.595. This level coincides with a strong psychological and technical support zone, which has historically held up well for the pair. The TDI indicator reveals a bullish divergence, suggesting selling momentum may be weakening and indicating a potential upward reversal. Although the overall trend is still bearish, the price is near a significant support zone, opening up the possibility of a corrective move.
Trade Strategy: Buy at Harmonic Support Zone
Entry: 0.596
Stop Loss (SL): 0.5906
Take Profit (TP): 0.6201
Risk-Reward Ratio: 1:4+
Rationale: The 0.595 zone aligns with point D of the harmonic pattern, hinting at trend exhaustion. The TDI indicator strengthens the likelihood of a temporary reversal, aiming to test higher resistance levels. The historical support and the harmonic pattern confluence offer a high-probability setup with strong risk-reward potential.
NZD/USD is positioned at a crucial support level, with technical patterns and indicators pointing towards a potential short-term reversal. A buy setup at support appears favorable, leveraging the harmonic pattern's proximity and divergence signals. Should price breach resistance, selling opportunities near this region may also arise to capture a rejection move. The primary outlook is for a short-term bullish bounce from support, possibly followed by a continuation of the downtrend at higher levels.
Monitor Key Levels at lower time frames and Trade Wisely!
Trading NZDUSD | Judas Swing Strategy 28/10/2024 Last week highlighted the importance of a risk management plan for all traders using the Judas swing strategy as a case study. The strategy produced two trades on FX:GBPUSD and one on $EURUSD. Despite facing two losses and securing only one win, proper risk management ensured that the single win offset the losses, allowing us to end the week at breakeven. With these results in hand, we were excited to see what the upcoming week would bring. We got to our trading desk at 8:25EST and started our day by demarcating our trading zones.
Once we have demarcated our zones, we wait for the high or low of this zone to be swept, as this will assist us in determining our bias for the trading session. After 35 minutes, the high of the zone was swept, indicating that we should look for potential selling opportunities during this trading session.
Next on our checklist is to wait for a Break of Structure (BOS) on the sell side. After an hour, we observed a BOS on the sell side, which resulted in a Fair Value Gap (FVG) being formed in the process
We must wait for the price to retrace back into the Fair Value Gap (FVG). A trade can only be initiated once price has entered the FVG, and it is crucial to be patient and wait for the price to close before executing any trades. This waiting period acts as a filter to avoid scenarios where the candle entering the FVG proceeds to hit our stop-loss. The next five-minute candle entered the Fair Value Gap and closed, indicating that we can proceed with executing the trade
The position experienced a drawdown shortly after the trade was executed, but this did not concern us as we had only risked 1% of our trading account, targeting a 2% gain. Additionally, we implemented a minimum 10 pip stop loss to allow the trade sufficient space to fluctuate without prematurely stopping us out and then proceeding in our anticipated direction.
Upon checking the position later, we found it had shifted in our favor. However, we needed to remain composed since it had not yet reached our ultimate target. Our task was simply to be patient and wait for our targets to be achieved
Upon reevaluating the position, we noticed that price had returned to the entry point. At such moments, individuals who have risked more than they can afford may start to panic. That's why we continually stress the importance of only risking what you can afford to lose, as it greatly diminishes the emotional investment in trades. We have encountered situations like this before and will likely face them again. However, what remains within our control is the decision to risk only an amount we are comfortable with losing, which in turn lessens the emotional attachment to the trades.
According to our data, we can anticipate being in a position for an average of 11 hours, so the duration of this trade meeting our objective is not a concern we simply need to remain patient for it to occur. After 13 hours and 25 minutes, our patience was rewarded when our Take Profit (TP) was reached, resulting in a 2% gain on the OANDA:NZDUSD trade
NZD/USD Still Subdued, Here's Why..Markets are calming somewhat pre NFP and importantly pre election.
The lack of USD weakness off the back of stronger economic data previously is the main culprit alongside a lack of demand for Antipodean currencies.
This, unsurprisingly has not changed. Price levels below are far more favourable for traders and there is still no impetus for longs (see current price action, pushes lead to instant rejection off early MA's).
I am willing to scale in lower, no rush to get massively long whatsoever. Only light entries if need be.
See bottom black line in line with prev PA zones.
NZDUSD Daily Outlook: Slight Bullish Bias Amid Today !!NZDUSD Daily Outlook: Slight Bullish Bias Amid Current Market Conditions (31/10/2024)
Introduction
As we delve into today’s trading session, the NZDUSD pair shows signs of a slightly bullish bias due to a combination of fundamental drivers and current market conditions. This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the NZDUSD's outlook on October 31, 2024, shedding light on the key factors impacting the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) and the US Dollar (USD) in today’s trading environment. With the right blend of technical and fundamental insights, we aim to offer valuable insights for traders considering NZDUSD positions.
Key Fundamental Drivers Impacting NZDUSD Today
1. China's Economic Growth and Its Influence on NZD
- The New Zealand Dollar, a commodity-linked currency, closely correlates with China's economic health due to New Zealand's export reliance. Recent reports suggest a moderate recovery in China's industrial and manufacturing data, which bodes well for NZD. Increased demand for New Zealand exports, especially dairy, bolsters the Kiwi's outlook, creating an overall positive sentiment for NZDUSD.
2. Federal Reserve’s Dovish Stance
- A significant driver for NZDUSD is the Federal Reserve’s dovish stance, with expectations for a pause on future rate hikes. This has resulted in a softer USD as investors anticipate fewer rate hikes going forward. A dovish Fed policy tends to weaken the USD, increasing the attractiveness of the NZD and slightly tilting NZDUSD towards bullishness.
3. New Zealand's Stable Economic Indicators
- New Zealand’s recent economic data reveals consistent GDP growth, low unemployment rates, and a robust labor market. This stability has created an optimistic environment for the New Zealand Dollar. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) has maintained a steady rate outlook, supporting the Kiwi by keeping investors interested in NZD assets due to positive yields.
4. US Treasury Yield Fluctuations and Its Impact on USD
- The ongoing fluctuations in US Treasury yields have contributed to the USD's recent mixed performance. A decline in yields typically makes the USD less attractive, as lower yields reduce the appeal for foreign investors. As a result, NZDUSD may benefit from a weaker USD, supporting a bullish bias in today’s trading.
5. Market Sentiment and Risk Appetite
- Recent geopolitical tensions and global market fluctuations have impacted the broader market sentiment. The Kiwi typically gains when there is a higher risk appetite among investors. As volatility stabilizes, we may see increased demand for higher-yielding currencies, which could strengthen NZDUSD’s position, albeit moderately.
Technical Analysis of NZDUSD (31/10/2024)
Looking at today’s technical setup for NZDUSD, the pair trades above its 50-day moving average, a potential bullish indicator. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently sits near the 60 mark, indicating a neutral to slightly bullish sentiment. Support levels at 0.5850 and resistance near 0.5920 will be critical zones to monitor.
Key Support: 0.5850
Key Resistance: 0.5920
Conclusion: NZDUSD Outlook for 31/10/2024
With today’s economic data and current sentiment, the NZDUSD pair leans towards a slightly bullish outlook. Strong economic fundamentals from New Zealand, coupled with a softer US Dollar from a dovish Federal Reserve stance, are influencing the pair's potential upward movement. However, traders should stay vigilant to potential changes in Treasury yields and any abrupt shifts in global risk sentiment.
By focusing on today’s fundamental and technical drivers, NZDUSD traders can better gauge the market’s slight bullish bias.
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NZDUSD SHORTPrice is at the moment trying to rally for a bit, make a push to the marked entry level and sell all the to thd weekly support. I personally will hopefully bag about 120pips from this setup, as trend towards the downside is eminent. Fingers crossed
Swing Short for NZDUSDEntry: 0.635
TP1: 0.611
TP2: 0.585
TP3: 0.578
SL: 0.658
Dollar strength will likely return with this new fiscal year beginning.
NZDUSD BUYNZDUSD has successfully broken the trendline and formed a double bottom, i expect a move to the upside to 0.60800 level.
NzdUsd Trade IdeaLooking for the same up to play out on NU like it did in the past! Set up is pretty simple with a solid risk to reward. We'll see how price decides to move with USD having news until 10:30.
NZDUSD Analysis Today: Technical and Order Flow !In this video I will be sharing my NZDUSD analysis today, by providing my complete technical and order flow analysis, so you can watch it to possibly improve your forex trading skillset. The video is structured in 3 parts, first I will be performing my complete technical analysis, then I will be moving to the COT data analysis, so how the big payers in market are moving their orders, and to do this I will be using my customized proprietary software and then I will be putting together these two different types of analysis.
NZDUSD: Intraday Bullish MovementCheck a price action on 📈NZDUSD.
After a drop below an important intraday/daily level, the NZDUSD price began trading within a tight range.
The price with a single candle surge, breaking through a resistance line in a downward channel and a horizontal range resistance based on the daily key level.
There is potential for the pair to keep climbing towards targets of 0.6010 - 0.6026.
NZD/USD Bullish reversal setup and trade planDivergence Setup:
The RSI shows bullish divergence, where the price is making lower lows, but the RSI is making higher lows. This suggests a potential reversal to the upside.
Trendline Break:
A descending trendline has been drawn connecting lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL) on the chart. The recent candle seems to be testing or breaking this trendline, which could signal a reversal if it holds above.
Entry:
A "Buy Limit" order is placed at 0.59820, just below the current price. This suggests waiting for a slight retracement for a better entry point.
Stop Loss:
The Stop Loss is set at 0.59498, below the recent low, aiming to protect the trade if the price moves against the setup.
Take Profit (TP):
TP1 at 0.60140, which is a conservative target.
TP2 at 0.60460, a higher target.
This trade plan is set up for a potential bullish reversal based on RSI divergence, trendline break, and Fibonacci retracement levels. The entry and take profit levels are positioned to capture gains if the price reverses upward, while the stop loss limits downside risk.
NZDUSD is BullishPrice was in a strong downtrend, however a matured bullish divergence seems to be at play on four hourly time frame, as previous lower high is broken. If the bulls manage to sustain pressure then we can expect a reversal as per Dow theory. Targets are mentioned on the chart.
Monday Range, CLS setup targeting MR highsMonday Range, CLS setup targeting MR highs
I will be looking to position myself with my students and followers as highlighted on the chart if we get the confirmation.
Accumulation / Manipulation / Distribution
- No liquidity raid = No trade
- Never buy high and never sell low
“Adapt what is useful, reject what is useless, and add what is specifically your own.”
Dave FX Hunter ⚔
NZDUSD Analysis: Potential Bullish Bias for October 30, 2024Discover the latest analysis on NZDUSD and explore the key market drivers that could impact the pair’s movements today. Is NZDUSD gearing up for a bullish trend?
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Introduction
Today, October 30, 2024, NZDUSD could present a slight bullish bias, driven by key macroeconomic developments and currency market sentiment. In this article, we will analyze the factors influencing the potential appreciation of the New Zealand dollar (NZD) against the U.S. dollar (USD), including central bank policies, economic data releases, and general risk sentiment. For those tracking NZDUSD, these insights provide an up-to-date perspective for informed trading decisions.
Current Market Sentiment
The global financial market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, reflecting a slight increase in risk appetite, which generally favors higher-yielding currencies like the NZD. A rebound in commodity prices also supports the New Zealand dollar, as New Zealand’s economy is heavily commodity-dependent, notably in dairy, forestry, and agriculture. This positive sentiment may give a short-term boost to NZDUSD, particularly as investors look to diversify amid uncertain U.S. economic data.
Key Drivers Influencing NZDUSD
1. RBNZ Policy Outlook
Recent signals from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) suggest a steady stance, with the central bank keeping a cautious eye on inflation while avoiding any immediate rate hikes. The RBNZ’s approach is contrasting with the recent hawkishness from the Federal Reserve, yet a positive growth outlook in New Zealand still supports the Kiwi dollar. If the RBNZ indicates stability, NZDUSD may see a lift as investors view the NZD as an attractive option in a low-volatility environment.
2. U.S. Federal Reserve Policy and Economic Data
The U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate path continues to be a decisive factor in determining NZDUSD trends. If the Fed's upcoming economic data releases hint at any economic cooling, it could reduce demand for the U.S. dollar, potentially encouraging NZDUSD to move higher. Investors should keep an eye on any U.S. economic updates today, particularly in employment or inflation, as they might temper the USD's strength and further support the NZD.
3. Commodity Price Trends
As a key exporter of commodities, New Zealand’s dollar is highly correlated with global commodity price trends. A recent uptick in dairy prices, New Zealand’s primary export, has lent support to the NZD, as has a steady demand for agricultural and forestry products. If commodity prices maintain an upward trajectory, this could strengthen the New Zealand dollar, pushing NZDUSD higher.
4. Risk Sentiment and Geopolitical Considerations
Risk sentiment plays a crucial role in NZDUSD’s movement, as the New Zealand dollar is often viewed as a “risk-on” currency. Current stability in geopolitical factors, along with market optimism in global growth prospects, could continue to attract buyers to the NZD. Positive developments from Asian markets or constructive trade discussions could offer additional support to the NZD.
Technical Overview
The technical picture for NZDUSD also indicates potential for a slight upward bias. With NZDUSD hovering near a support level and moving averages hinting at a potential breakout, bullish momentum could drive the pair higher. Traders may want to watch for any break above the 50-day moving average as a potential entry point for a long position.
Conclusion
Overall, the NZDUSD outlook for today suggests a slight bullish bias, supported by a favorable risk sentiment, steady commodity prices, and nuanced central bank positions. While uncertainties remain, particularly with U.S. data releases, the fundamentals provide a supportive environment for a mild upward movement in NZDUSD.
Remember to follow this NZDUSD forecast closely to stay updated on any shifts in market sentiment or fundamental data impacting this currency pair.
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NZDUSD - 4hrs ( Sell Trade Target range 100 PIP ) 🟢 Pair Name : NZD/USD
Time Frame : 4hrs Chart / Close
Scale Type : Large Scale
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spreading knowledge among us and to clarify the most importan+t points of entry, exit and entry with more than 5 reasons
We seek to spread understanding rather than make money
🟢 Key Technical / Direction ( Short )
———————————
Bearish Break
0.59600 Area
Reasons
- Major Turn level
- Visible range Hvn
- Trend Contnuation
- Fibo Golden / Choch
- Day low Break
Bullish Reversal
0.58900 Area
Reasons
- Major Turn level
- Visible Range Lvn
- Pattern Target
- Major Choch zone
- Quarter low
NZDUSD LONGI have observed an inverted H&S pattern for NU on the daily and weekly time frame. We are also at the .236 FIB retracement. May be a good entry for reversal.
