NZDUSD trade ideas
New Zealand central bank sees less growth, FOMC says it will remThe New Zealand dollar declined as much as 0.67% earlier but has recovered. In the European session, NZDS/USD is trading at 0.5969, up 0.04% on the day.
A day after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand lowered interest rates, Governor Christian Hawkesby testified before a parliamentary committee on Thursday. Hawkesby said the central bank could hold rates in July and that rate decisions would be data-dependent. The Governor said he expected slower global growth would dampen New Zealand's recovery and there was uncertainty around the impact of the US tariffs.
The RBNZ has been aggressive, chopping 225 basis points in the current easing cycle, which has brought the cash rate down to 3.25%, its lowest level in almost three years. At yesterday's meeting, the RBNZ said that the cash rate was currently in a neutral zone, where it neither stimulates nor curbs economic growth.
FOMC minutes: Increasing uncertainly could mean "difficult tradeoffs"
In the FOMC minutes of the May 7 meeting, members expressed concern about the government's fiscal and trade policy. Members said that "uncertainty about the economic outlook had increased further", making it appropriate to remain cautious until these policies became clearer. Members warned that if inflation remained high and growth and employment weakened, the Fed might have to make "difficult tradeoffs".
There was another twist to the Trump tariffs saga as the US Court of International Trade declared the tariffs illegal. The Court ruled that Trump had exceeded his authority by imposing wide-sweeping tariffs against US trading partners. The decision puts a hold on the tariffs, but that may not last long as the US Justice Department has filed an appeal.
Potential bearish drop off major resistance?NZD/USD has rejected off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit.
Entry: 0.6061
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Stop loss: 0.6080
Why we like it:
There is a pullback resistance level.
Take profit: 0.6010
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level.
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A Detailed Technical, Fundamental, and Macro AnalysisNZD/USD Trading Plan: A Detailed Technical, Fundamental, and Macro Analysis
1. Technical Analysis:
The 30-minute chart of NZD/USD highlights key price action within a well-defined channel between crucial support and resistance levels:
Resistance (0.60769): The price is testing significant resistance around 0.60769. If this level is broken, the price could continue higher, indicating further upward momentum.
Support (0.60271): A strong support level is found at 0.60271. If the price retraces and holds this level, a potential rebound could take place.
EMA (Exponential Moving Averages):
EMA 13 (Blue): Currently moving upwards, confirming a bullish short-term trend.
EMA 34 (Yellow) and EMA 89 (Red): These are trending sideways, suggesting that the market is in a consolidation phase, waiting for further signals.
2. Fundamental Analysis:
FED's Monetary Policy: The actions and statements of the Federal Reserve regarding interest rates have a significant impact on the USD. If the FED maintains or hikes rates, this could push the USD higher, putting downward pressure on NZD.
New Zealand Economic Indicators: The strength of New Zealand's economy, particularly export data, plays a vital role in supporting or weakening the NZD. Positive economic reports could support a bullish NZD.
3. Macroeconomic Analysis:
Global Risk Sentiment: Market sentiment is being influenced by global factors like trade tensions, economic growth projections, and political factors. A shift in risk sentiment, especially regarding the U.S. economy or geopolitical tensions, could lead to significant price movements in the NZD/USD pair.
4. Buy and Sell Zones:
BUY ZONE:
Entry: 0.60271 - 0.60300
SL (Stop Loss): 0.60200
TP (Take Profit): 0.60700 → 0.60769 → 0.60900
SELL ZONE:
Entry: 0.60750 - 0.60800
SL: 0.60900
TP: 0.60300 → 0.60200 → 0.60100
5. Strategy:
Buy Orders: If price consolidates at the support level of 0.60271 and shows confirmation with EMA indicators, consider a buy with a target at 0.60769.
Sell Orders: If price fails to break through the resistance at 0.60769, a sell order could be placed, targeting the 0.60271 support level.
6. Market Sentiment:
The market is highly sensitive to news and economic reports, and therefore, it is essential to remain alert to potential volatility. Any major economic release from New Zealand or U.S. Federal Reserve news could significantly influence the pair.
NZDUSD ready to make new HH!!bullish trendline seems quite intact as the price has tested multiple times, giving opportunities in long positions. Currently the price is gain going to hit that drawn support level(trendline) make sure to enter at that time. Long position has also been shown on the chart for more clarity
NZDUSD Long📊 Chart Elements Breakdown
✅ Trade Setup
Buy Entry Zone: Around 0.60385
Stop Loss (Red Zone): Below 0.60163
Take Profit (Green Zone): Near 0.60795
Risk/Reward Ratio: Roughly 1:2, showing a favorable setup
📈 Indicators & Tools Used
1. Volume Profile (Visible Range)
Displays where the most trading activity (volume) occurred in each session.
You’ve marked high-volume nodes (HVN) and low-volume areas.
Price is moving away from a high-volume consolidation zone, suggesting a breakout attempt.
2. Volume Delta (Histogram)
Shows the difference between buying and selling volume.
Currently showing increasing green bars → bullish delta, indicating buyers are gaining control.
3. CCI (Commodity Channel Index)
CCI(20) is above +100, signaling overbought conditions but also confirming bullish momentum.
This supports the bullish move continuation theory.
🧠 Trading Logic
Accumulation Zone identified before the breakout (low-volume area marked).
Price retested support and showed strength with a bounce.
The break above recent structure around 0.6035 combined with positive delta and CCI signals is a bullish confluence.
Targeting the previous swing high at 0.60795 aligns with volume-based resistance.
🔍 Summary
You're anticipating:
A bullish continuation after a clean retest of support.
Strong buying pressure confirmed by Volume Delta and CCI.
A breakout from a range, potentially targeting liquidity above 0.6079.
NU Short prespectiveLooking at NU on the 4 hr, we have a nice rejection with the pinbar taking out sell side liquidity. We can also observe that price retraced back into the resistance zone before the further push to the down side. Friday Market closed with bearish sentiment.
As such we have a good amount of Fvg that we can potentially target as an entry. Here we have established the .62% as an entry using the fib retracement to target the previous lows.
Now, this trade will be invalid if price fails to stay below the new LH and would make this short invalid. Currently price is testing a resistance as per historical data would present.
NZDUSD Wave Analysis – 3 June 2025
- NZDUSD reversed from the resistance zone
- Likely to fall to support level 0.5900
NZDUSD currency pair recently reversed down from the resistance zone between the resistance level 0.6030 (which has been reversing the price from November), the upper daily Bollinger Band and the 61.8% Fibonacci correction of the downward impulse from September.
The downward reversal from this resistance zone stopped the C-wave of the previous ABC correction (2).
Given the strength of the resistance level of 0.6030 and the bearish divergence on the daily Stochastic, the NZDUSD currency pair can be expected to fall to the next support level of 0.5900.
Waiting for a Short-Term Pullback Before the Next Bullish Leg? NZDUSD – Waiting for a Short-Term Pullback Before the Next Bullish Leg?
As global markets await the upcoming U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report later this week, NZDUSD is showing early signs of short-term weakness following a strong bullish rally from the 0.5905 low. While the broader structure remains bullish, a corrective move may be necessary to shake out weak hands and reload liquidity before a renewed surge.
🌐 Macro & Fundamental Outlook:
New Zealand: Recent economic releases from New Zealand have been lackluster, yet the RBNZ's hawkish policy stance (high interest rates) continues to support the Kiwi. However, pressure from China – New Zealand’s top trading partner – remains a drag.
United States: The U.S. Dollar remains under pressure due to rising expectations that the Fed will start cutting rates by Q3 2025, despite some hawkish tones from FOMC officials. This week’s NFP report will be a decisive factor.
Market Sentiment: After a ~150-pip rally, traders are beginning to take profits. The correction could offer a golden re-entry opportunity.
📊 Technical Analysis:
Trend Bias: The market structure is still in an uptrend, maintaining Higher Highs and Higher Lows.
Fibonacci Retracement: Price is currently pulling back toward the 0.5 – 0.618 Fibo zone (0.5992 – 0.5978), aligning with the H1 89 & 200 EMAs.
EMA Structure (13 – 34 – 89 – 200): Still bullish but currently signaling a short-term pullback.
🔑 Key Price Zones:
Resistance Levels: 0.6014 – 0.6052
Support Levels: 0.5973 – 0.5951 – 0.5932
🧭 Trade Plan
📌 Buy Setup (trend continuation):
BUY ZONE: 0.5951 – 0.5932
SL: 0.5900
TP: 0.5978 → 0.6014 → 0.6052
📌 Expecting a bullish bounce off the 61.8% Fibo + EMA 200 confluence ahead of NFP.
📌 Sell Setup (short-term countertrend scalp):
SELL ZONE: 0.6014 – 0.6025
SL: 0.6060
TP: 0.5978 → 0.5951
📌 Anticipating a reaction at a key resistance zone – ideal for intraday scalpers.
⚠️ Risk Management Notes:
Stay cautious ahead of high-impact U.S. data (ADP, Jobless Claims, NFP).
Favor buying the dip in line with the higher-timeframe trend.
Maintain discipline with tight SLs (30–35 pips max per setup).
NZDUSD 4Hr. Wave 5 North Likely in progress towards .60751). Price has very likely completed wave C @ .5950! 2). Risk Assets are strong today on US$ strength! 3). BANKS ARE BUYING! 4). Volume is increasing... 5). Trendline intersecting with target fib. level 72.8%. 6).US $ WEAKNESS AT THE MOMENT IS ALSO ADDING TO THE ANTICIPATED RISK ASSET UPWARD SCENARIO!
US Dollar May Face a Major Downtrend — NZDUSD Full Case Study
One-sentence key takeaway:
"The coming dollar downtrend is unfolding—NZDUSD has already taken off! Catch the structural breakout; the next station may witness a major dollar reversal."
1. Key Breakout Trigger — May 13
Signal time: 2025-05-13 22:01
Trigger price: 0.58932
Insight: Multi-timeframe signal confluence on NZDUSD, 0.58932 marks a major bullish breakout.
Strategy: As long as price holds above 0.59, stay bullish and ride the trend from the start.
《NZD(纽元)大级别上涨启动点(05月13日)》
2. First Follow-up — May 20
Price remained above 0.59; signal confirmed
Conclusion: Signal fully respected, trend intact, stay long and patient.
《NZD(纽元)大级别上涨启动点 —— 跟踪篇(1)(05月20日)》
3. Temporary Resistance — May 26
Current price: 0.60206
Non-USD pairs facing resistance, some consolidation appearing.
Strategy: Any pullback is not a concern; watch the structure, the main trend is unchanged.
《NZD(纽元)大级别上涨启动点 —— 跟踪篇(2)(非美遇到阻力)(05月26日)》
4. Second Breakout — May 28
Current price: 0.59691
Non-USD currencies re-ignite; strong inflow and bullish momentum.
Strategy: Buy dips in line with the trend, bullish bias unchanged.
《https://cn.tradingview.com/chart/idea/hDlgFQsc/》
5. Latest Update — June 2
Current price: 0.6005
Dollar Index: 98.965, down 0.48% today
NZDUSD and other non-USD pairs remain strong, Dollar Index keeps weakening.
Conclusion: The major dollar downtrend is clearly in play; non-USD bullish momentum remains dominant.
My Bias
Strongly bearish on USD; looking to buy NZDUSD and other non-USD pairs on dips
As long as 0.59 holds, the main trend stands
Every correction is a new chance to get on the next leg up
"Only big signals. Only key inflection points—miss one, and you could miss an entire cycle of wealth!"
NZD/USD Setup – Smart Money Demand Zone ReactionPrice has been respecting a well-defined demand zone with multiple rejections and clear signs of accumulation. We're now seeing strong bullish intent building up, especially with the current weakness in the U.S. Dollar (DXY).
This trade idea is structured around:
🔹 A clean liquidity sweep below recent lows
🔹 Strong reaction from institutional demand
🔹 Favorable RRR and market structure support
🔹 Aligns with broader macro sentiment
Momentum is shifting — and this looks like the beginning of an expansion leg to the upside.
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adm:I would like to apologize especially to EuroMotif, for breaking a rule and I am sure that this will not happen again. I am responding through the post because unfortunately the SMS does not arrive. I thank you in advance for the opportunity.
NZDUSD: weekly overviewTraders, this is weekly view of the pair.
Our long-term TP is the 0.6300 but for now we have a strong trendline on our way! the only tradable zone for this week is 0.58497.
In case of bullish trades, from 0.60264 level. Please consider the trend line as mid-way TPS.
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The indicated levels are determined based on the most reaction points and the assumption of approximately equal distance between the zones.
Some of these points can also be confirmed by the mathematical intervals of Murray.
You can enter with/without confirmation. IF you want to take confirmation you can use LTF analysis, Spike move confirmation, Trend Strength confirmation and ETC.
SL could be placed below the zone or regarding the LTF swings.
TP is the next zone or the nearest moving S&R, which are median and borders of the drawn channels.
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Role of different zones:
GREEN: Just long trades allowed on them.
RED: Just Short trades allowed on them.
BLUE: both long and short trades allowed on them.
WHITE: No trades allowed on them! just use them as TP points
NZDUSD 4Hr. Wave 3 North Likely in progress towards .604331). Price has very likely completed wave C @ .5950! 2). Risk Assets are strong today on US$ strength! 3). BANKS ARE BUYING! 4). Volume is increasing... 5). Trendline intersecting with target fib. level 72.8%. 6).US $ WEAKNESS AT THE MOMENT IS ALSO ADDING TO THE ANTICIPATED RISK ASSET UPWARD SCENARIO!