NZDUSD trade ideas
NZD/USD Recovery Stalls Ahead of November HighThe recovery in NZD/USD seems to have stalled ahead of the November high (0.6038) as it gives back the advance from the start of the week.
In turn, a move/close below the 0.5920 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) to 0.5930 (78.6% Fibonacci extension) region may push NZD/USD towards the 0.5740 (78.6% Fibonacci retracement) to 0.5760 (100% Fibonacci extension) zone, with the next area of interest coming in around the 2020 low (0.5470).
At the same time, a breach above the November high (0.6038) brings 0.6070 (61.8% Fibonacci extension) on the radar, with the next region of interest coming in around 0.6170 (50% Fibonacci extension).
--- Written by David Song, Senior Strategist at FOREX.com
Precision Trading Using UKL Signal and RM2 – NCI System LogicIn this setup, I carefully skipped a trade due to an unclear UKL signal despite a potentially predictable trend — choosing discipline over guessing.
Later, I closed a position early based on RM2 logic, reacting to a strong downward impulse.
This chart reflects my decision-making process, using:
✅ UKL signal confirmation (clear vs. unclear zone logic)
✅ RM2 rule for exit based on risk reappearance
✅ Focused execution on a single pair only (NZDUSD)
✅ Risk-to-reward targeting RR1.2+
Your feedback is welcome! I continue to journal, refine, and strictly follow the NCI structure for long-term consistency.
NZDUSD Bearish moveShort-setup: breakdown of support
Trigger: Price has decisively broken below S1 (0.59337) and the 200-hour MA (red) on the 1h chart.
Confirmation: RFI just dipped below its ascending trendline and failed to reclaim it—momentum is bearish.
Entry: Short at market 0.5930–0.5925 (just below S1).
Initial Stop: Above R2 at 0.5944 (≈15-18 pips stop).
Targets:
T1: S2 at 0.5886 (~45 pips → RRR ≈ 1:3)
T2: R3 (long-term) at 0.5853 if momentum stays strong (~75 pips → RRR ≈ 1:5)
⚡ Highlight: This is a bank-order-flow style fade—selling the break of the minor support after a test of the 200-hour MA confluence.
NZDUSD: Bullish Forecast & Bullish Scenario
The recent price action on the NZDUSD pair was keeping me on the fence, however, my bias is slowly but surely changing into the bullish one and I think we will see the price go up.
Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis.
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NZD/USD: Confidence Boost Signals Potential ReversalHello,
OANDA:NZDUSD : Business confidence in New Zealand improved in the fourth quarter, reaching its highest level since Q2 2021, according to a private think tank on Tuesday. The NZIER's quarterly survey showed that a net 16% of firms expect better business conditions, compared to just 1% expressing pessimism in the previous quarter. This suggests we may see further support tests before a potential bullish reversal.
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NZDUSD LONG SIGNALUnder current market conditions, the area near 0.5947 has been identified as a critical support zone, where the AI model detects a high-probability trade setup.
From a technical perspective, a clear directional bias based on recent price action patterns. Suppose the market demonstrates increased volume and price stability above key moving averages in the 0.5947 area. In that case, traders are advised to monitor for trend-continuation entry opportunities in alignment with the prevailing momentum.
Profit targets are defined at 0.5981 and 0.6030, corresponding to logical technical resistance zones. These levels are designed for staged profit-taking across different trade management styles. Stop-loss should be strictly enforced at the designated level; once breached, the strategy is considered invalidated in order to limit potential downside.
NZDUSD hit our Take Profit. NZDUSD hit our Take Profit.
NZDUSD is hitting our Take Profit just as we projected in the analysis. This confirms that when we follow a clear plan and stay on the right path, results follow. Still, in trading, being cautious is part of success: protecting capital is always more important than chasing uncontrolled profits.
Descending triangleThe price has formed a descending triangle and now looks to breakout for a bearish impulse
You can wait for another pullback to go short, or you can take the breakout as the price had already made a false break which is also a confirmation
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NZDUSD UPDATEI am still waiting for a clear push up and break the trendline. After it has done so i will wait to see if on the small time frame we do actually have a strong level that is preventing it to come back inside the trendline then i will enter thereby preventing premature trade of jumping the gun too soon. My analysis are based on research and collection of past data to predict the future. so based on that information i know that 75% chance of the time my edge do play out.
NZDUSD LONG SIGNAL IDEAUnder current market conditions, the area near 0.5928 has been identified as a critical support zone, where the AI model detects a high-probability trade setup.
From a technical perspective, a clear directional bias based on recent price action patterns. If the market demonstrates increased volume and price stability above key moving averages in the 0.5928 area, traders are advised to monitor for trend-continuation entry opportunities in alignment with the prevailing momentum.
Profit targets are defined at 0.5971 and 0.6013, corresponding to logical technical resistance zones. These levels are designed for staged profit-taking across different trade management styles. Stop-loss should be strictly enforced at the designated level; once breached, the strategy is considered invalidated in order to limit potential downside.
Possible Buy of NZDUSD I received an alert that the price of this pair has hit a Demand Zone on 1H chart. I am looking to see a close of a hammer or bullish engulfing candle in the next few hours. I am NOT opening a trade just yet. Fundamentally I see a weaker dollar longer team.
If I do open a trade the position size will risk be 0.5% as I am wary erratic market conditions these days.
Long trade
Trade Overview: NZDUSD – Long Position (Trade 1) & 2
Entry Price: 0.59545
Take Profit: 0.60138 (+1.00%)
Stop Loss: 0.59391 (–0.26%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 3.85
🕕 Entry Time: 6:00 PM (NY Time)
📅 Date: Wednesday, 23rd April 2025
🌍 Session: New York to Tokyo Overlap (PM)
⏱ Entry Timeframe: 5-Minute TF
Reasoning Narrative
Price action on NZDUSD leading into the New York close suggested bullish intent, as price had formed a higher low within a broader 1h bullish structure.