buy usd/nzdThe Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) is expected to cut the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.5% tomorrow, as global economic conditions and domestic data signal a weaker outlook. While there are risks of a larger cut, the RBNZ is likely to hold back, as uncertainties surrounding the global trade environment, particularly tensions between the US and China, are contributing to global growth concerns.
The New Zealand economy is facing sluggish growth, with recent domestic business surveys showing weak economic indicators and lower-than-expected GDP growth for Q1. Despite this, the RBNZ is still inclined to reduce the OCR further, with the intention of bringing it closer to a neutral level of around 3%. However, they will likely avoid committing to a sub-3% OCR at this stage, leaving that decision for future discussions in May.
The RBNZ aims to avoid creating market instability with a dramatic policy shift, opting instead to focus on financial stability and making gradual adjustments. The May Monetary Policy Statement will provide clearer guidance as the economic outlook and budget details become more defined. The current OCR forecast of 3.25% may be revised downwards, reflecting the growing downside risks.
