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SMPN2026 trade ideas

Dairy Market Update (2.21.25)U.S. Milk Production and Supply Adjustments The USDA has revised its U.S. milk production forecast for 2025 downward to 229.2 billion pounds, reflecting a 0.5-billion-pound reduction from previous estimates. This adjustment is due to a slower-than-expected increase in milk output per cow and ongoing reductions in the national dairy herd. Rising feed costs and tight margins have contributed to a more cautious expansion strategy among dairy producers. Cheese and Butter Price Forecasts The updated WASDE report projects mixed price movements across major dairy products: Cheese prices CME:CSC1! are expected to average $1.79 per pound, down slightly due to softer domestic demand and increased competition from imports. Butter prices NZX:BTR1! are forecasted at $2.54 per pound, reflecting strong consumer demand and tighter domestic inventories. Nonfat dry milk (NFDM) and whey prices remain stable, with minor adjustments driven by export trends and global production levels. U.S. Dairy Exports and Global Trade Trends The U.S. dairy export outlook has softened slightly, with total dairy exports projected at 4.9 billion pounds in 2025, reflecting weaker demand from key international markets. China’s dairy imports are expected to remain subdued due to high domestic milk powder inventories and slower economic growth. Mexico continues to be a strong buyer of U.S. dairy products, particularly cheese and NFDM, supporting export stability. The European Union and New Zealand remain competitive in global dairy markets, challenging U.S. pricing power in certain categories. Price Outlook and Market Implications The all-milk price forecast for 2025 has been adjusted to $19.85 per hundredweight (cwt), reflecting a $0.25 decline from prior estimates. Global dairy market volatility, particularly in trade-sensitive products like whey and NFDM, could influence price movements in the coming months. Potential shifts in U.S. farm policy and trade agreements may also impact dairy market dynamics, as discussions on export incentives and tariff adjustments continue. Investment Considerations For traders and investors, the dairy market presents multiple areas of interest: • Futures and Options Trading: The volatility in milk and butter prices could create opportunities in dairy futures markets. • Agribusiness and Processing Stocks: Companies involved in dairy production, processing, and exports may see earnings fluctuations based on price and trade developments. • Feed and Input Costs: Rising feed costs could pressure dairy farm margins, affecting profitability and long-term supply trends. ECONOMICS:WWDRPI
CME:DC1!
by juliakhandoshko
Milk and Dairy Prices: Rising Costs Amid Declining ProductionDecline in U.S. Milk Production and Its Drivers In recent months, milk production in the United States has declined significantly. These changes comes to us as result of rising feed costs, adverse weather and a lack of farm labour. With input prices rising sharply due to disruptions in the global supply chain and the volatility of energy prices, many dairy farmers are finding it increasingly difficult to maintain profitability. As a result, some farmers have reduced the size of their farms or left the industry altogether, further contributing to the contraction in supply. This trend is particularly concerning, given that the U.S. remains one of the largest dairy producers globally, accounting for approximately 20% of total world milk output. The decline in domestic production not only affects local markets, but also reverberates through international trade channels, where the U.S. plays a crucial role as both an exporter and importer of dairy products. Upward Pressure on Cheese, Butter, and Whey Prices As milk production decreases, downstream dairy products such as cheese CME:CSC1! , butter NZX:BTR1! , and whey CME:DY1! are experiencing upward pressure on prices. According to USDA forecasts, cheese prices are expected to rise by 8–10% year-over-year, while butter prices could increase by up to 15% during the same period. These increases reflect tighter supplies and heightened demand from both domestic consumers and export markets. Whey, a byproduct of cheese production widely used in nutritional supplements and animal feed, is also seeing significant price appreciation. Global demand for whey protein concentrates (WPC) continues to grow, driven by expanding fitness and health-conscious consumer segments in Asia and Europe. However, constrained milk availability limits the ability of manufacturers to meet this growing appetite, exacerbating price inflation. Implications for Global Dairy Trade The reduction in U.S. milk production has far-reaching implications for global dairy trade dynamics. Historically, the U.S. has been a reliable supplier of dairy commodities to countries like Mexico, China, and Southeast Asian nations. As domestic output shrinks, however, these regions may seek alternative sources to fulfill their needs. Key competitors such as New Zealand, Australia, and the European Union stand poised to capitalize on this opportunity, potentially altering long-standing trade relationships. For instance, Mexico, the largest importer of U.S. dairy products, relies heavily on American cheese and milk powders to support its burgeoning food processing sector. A sustained decline in U.S. exports could force Mexican buyers to diversify their supplier base, leading to shifts in market share among major players. Similarly, China's increasing self-sufficiency efforts in agriculture may accelerate if imports from the U.S. become less dependable. Looking Ahead: Challenges and Opportunities The current state of the U.S. dairy industry underscores the need for strategic adaptation to address structural challenges. Producers must explore ways to optimize resource utilization, adopt advanced technologies, and secure sustainable financing options to remain competitive in a volatile environment. Policymakers, meanwhile, face the task of balancing producer support programs with broader economic goals, ensuring equitable access to subsidies without distorting market mechanisms. On the global stage, emerging economies present promising opportunities for expansion, provided they can overcome logistical hurdles and regulatory barriers. By fostering partnerships with international stakeholders and investing in value-added product development, the U.S. dairy sector can position itself for resilience in an ever-changing landscape. ECONOMICS:WWDRPI
CME:DC1!
by juliakhandoshko
The “real” Price of a Gallon of Milk? (Farm Bankruptcies) What is the “real” price of a gallon of milk? Why are we seeing one of the largest milk companies in the world file a REAL bankruptcies… Whats going on in the foods industry? For one gallon of milk, (most people) in the United States think of the “national weighted average” price. The price for milk and in “most cities” according to the USDA is $3.50 to $4.00, compared to about $6.00 to 8.00+ for organic milk. (USDA Retail Milk Price Index 2020) Unfortunately milk on the commodities market isn’t traded it “gallons”. So its difficult to understand the “price”. Class Grade “A” Milk futures are typically traded under the symbol “DA” and in a contract sizes of 200,000 lbs of Grade “A” cow's milk. The contracts are traded on something very similar to the “normal stock market” but are traded as “futures” in ticks of $.01 per “cwt”. worth $20 per contract. In North America, a “cwt” is equal to about 100 pounds or 112 pounds in the Europe (UK). So the “price” of milk to a stock broker is about $20 for 100 gallons. However, the price has CRASHED to about $10 or less (lowest in 10+ to 20 years!?) The price of milk has crashed! What about the health of the animals? What about the farms? We have all been hearing these quotes in the news. That “the current prices” are maybe some of the “lowest we will see in our lifetime?” But Milk!?!? and certainly the lowest in 10 years and including inflation of about 250% since the same gallon of milk in the 1970’s shouldn’t be the same price as one today? So we have to divide the prices by 2.5! I happen to live in one of the 3 largest “milk producing” states in the United States (Idaho!). The largest “milk producing” states are California, Wisconsin, and Idaho. Idaho actually produces more milk then New York, Texas, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota, New Mexico, or Washington. However, they all produce a LOT of milk! Each of these states produce about 10 BILLION pounds of milk EACH… with states like California and Wisconsin producing more then 30 to 40 billion pounds of milk? This is a LOT of milk! a billion is a thousand million! (1,000,000,000) and its 30 to 10 times even this number and globally the estimates are in the trillions of pounds of milk each year!?! The United States is the largest milk producer in the world?! Here are the “weight” totals for milk globally are measured in Kilograms not Pounds. So these numbers are multiplied by x2.2 to get “pounds”. Keep in mind that one of the largest producers of Milk is filing for Bankrupt in the United States. USA (91.3 billion kilograms) India (60.6 billion kilograms) … China (35.7 billion kilograms) ... Brazil (34.3 billion kilograms) … Germany (31.1 billion kilograms) ... Russia (30.3 billion kilograms) ... France (23.7 billion kilograms) ... New Zealand (18.9 billion kilograms) .. How are we treating the “big” animals? Is this a different bankruptcy because its with “real live animals?” Many cows are treated HORRIBLY! It is actually totally terrifying to see videos of how cows are actually treated on farms today! Its TERRIFYING. I was totally shocked at the videos its almost impossible to describe how horrible some of the things done to cows are in these milking videos. Today’s average dairy cow produces six to seven times as much milk as she did a century ago. With the rise of factory farming, milk is now a totally unnatural operation.  Videos on the internet show cows latterly being dumped using tractors, electrocuted, shot in the head, burned on the head while still alive, many many cows barely able to walk, having their font lags not able to stand and being dragged across the floor while their knee caps bleed. This month one of the largest dairy company in the world and in the United States if finishing up and “filing” new paperwork for Bankruptcy and to “fire sale” everything all of their assets. We need someone to work on helping these farms! This cow milk company has been around for 94 years!? And is now in the final stages of their bankruptcy? They have made almost 7 billion dollars a year from cows milk? And had more than 50 national, regional and local dairy brands as well as private labels will all be “bankrupt” giving many dairy farmers “90 days” (from what you hear on the videos posted on the internet about farm closures). (Dean Foods, Organic Valley, Land-o-Lakes sound familiar?) Cows in the dairy industry spend their lives in a constant cycle of “antibiotics to cure infections”... (chicken farmers are not legally allowed to give chickens hormone treatments anymore) however, cows seem to be injected with hormones to increase milk production (as long as they are not “traceable” by the USDA blood screening? and I personally live on a University Farm in Idaho where they actually cut holes it appears on “live cows” and attach “strange devices” that look like they are giving vitamins “for quick injection of experimental hormones” to the cows directly into these patches on their stomachs? The cows do NOT look happy! Imagine a field of cows all with “frisbees” disks surgically on their stomachs so that they “grow faster?” and injections can be make “easily”? This is maybe for real? And it looks like that from the roadside of the University Farms? What is the price of milk?
CME:DC1!
by idasuperman
April Milk Bear CypherApril Milk formed a bearish Cypher last week. Higher prices were rejected on Thursday. Target maybe the 20 day Moving Average for another rise further up. Pivot at 14.92 would be first target before MA. If it falls through the MA then S1 would be the next available target at 14.55. If we get a rise on MA then we might be moving towards an Elliot Wave upwards. Prices have been in decline for a couple of months now. USDA price average is the yellow box, 14.70 - 15.40.
DLong
by hopscotch