AUS200 Risk On VS Risk Off (Trade Plans)AUS200 alike many equities has taken a hit and rebounded on calming sentiment pre US data.
This sentiment can easily twist today, although price still seems reasonably weak.
Maintaining short bias.
AU200AUD trade ideas
AUS200 in Bullish TrendAUS200 is in bullish trend making HHS and HLs. The chart is in upward trend on daily and hourly chart. I have chosen 4H time frame for analysis. There is a bearish divergence along with bullish hidden divergence and hidden divergence is stronger than regular divergence. Also for confluence sake, the SMA of 10, 20 and 50 are in the trend support and the static support is also very strong as it was a strong resistance and SR flip occurred. It is complimenting the trend line. The Fib retracement for downward trend has also exceeded 0.618 level considering the trend to be a weak one for downward movement.
The Signal is:
EP: 8124.86
SL: 7980.71
TP: 8269.01
ASX200 to finish the month higher as stunning rebound continuesThe ASX200 finished 26 pts (-0.33%) ⬇️ yesterday at 8045 after earnings reports at home, and the US missed the mark.
However, in a repeat of Wednesday's price action, heavier losses were trimmed after month-end buying emerged around lunchtime.
Watch today for more month-end buying, which will see the ASX200 likely finish the month in the green—a remarkable recovery after being down 5.7% in early August.
ASX futures closed 46 points (0.57%) higher this morning at 8055, indicating the ASX200 cash will open higher at 8089.
SET UP SHORT FOR AUS200Good morning everyone, beautiful day in Melbourne after 6 months cold in winter. I have a set up short position for AUS200. STOP LOSS at 8075, target 1 at 8013- target 2 at 7989 and target 3 at 7973.
AUS200/ASX200 - waiting for CPI come out soonIf the monthly consumer price index is 3.4%, as consensus, i think more room to go down.
Please refer to the set up short position at 8029-30, with stop loss at 8060. with target at 8009-7989. Please be patience and wait for data come out. as it could volatile and trigger your stop loss.
AUS200 - In bullish trendAUS200 is in bullish trend and my analysis is on an hourly chart. There is no divergence on 1H time frame. AXY (Australian Dollar Index) is falling hence giving a boost to AUS200. I have planned my entry after apply FIB @ 0.382 (Buy Limit Order).
The Signal is:
EP: 8088.10
SL: 8036.56
TP: 8139.60
AUS200 OR ASX200 continue bullish. AUS200 update. if you see a strong pullback in 5-15 minutes, 2 red candles continue and get out of the long position. Otherwise, targets 2 and 3 continue.
ASX200 recovery under review With two weeks left in August, the ASX200 is down 1.50% MTD after being down a hefty 5.7%.
The ASX200’s rebound from the 7600/7500 support area which includes the 200 day ma highlights its importance as the downside level to watch going forward. While the focus has switched to the topside, a retest of the 7600/7500 support area before year end is a strong possibility with an eye on the seasonally challenging month of September.
ASX futures closed 14 points (-0.18%) lower on Saturday morning at 7898, indicating the ASX200 cash will open lower at 7965.
AUS200 - In Bullish Trend (Multi Time Frame Analysis)This index is bullish on a daily time frame and a resistance and support level are drawn (purple rectangle). The bullish trend is also denoted by a purple trend line. There was a divergence on 1D time frame which resulted in a downward trend for few days but after that it again got back in bullish trend. On hourly chart there was a bullish diversion which reversed the trend back to bullish which can been seen from daily time frame. A trend line is also drawn on an hourly chart along with an ABCD bearish reversal harmonic. Currently there is no divergence on a hourly chart but there is one on 15m that would result in a form of correction in the trend on hourly chart. I have placed my order of Buy Stop on 15m time frame because the probability is high for an upward trend till it test the 1D resistance level.
The Signal is:
EP: 7966.60
SL: 7916.80
TP: 8016.40
RR: 0.25%
Strong Bullish Outlook Amid Potential 1W Support RetestHello Everyone,
We’ve reached our previous target of 8123 for AUS200, and the price is once again testing the lows, preparing for another upward push. However, there’s currently a strong likelihood that the price may retest the 1-week support structure. Despite this, our long-term outlook remains strongly bullish!
TradeWithTheTrend3344
Domino Effect -Australia's Exposure to a Sino-Taiwanese ConflictA potential armed conflict in the Taiwan Strait poses significant geopolitical risks with profound economic implications for Australia. As a key member of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, Australia’s strategic interests are deeply intertwined with regional stability. The potential impact of such a conflict on the Australian economy.
Economic Impact Assessment
A Sino-Taiwanese conflict would likely trigger severe economic disruptions for Australia. The nation's reliance on China as a primary trading partner, particularly in the mining and agricultural sectors, would exacerbate the negative impacts. Key sectors and their potential implications are outlined below:
Mining: As a dominant contributor to Australia's GDP and a significant component of the S&P/ASX 200, the mining sector would face substantial challenges. Disruptions to iron ore and coal exports to China would negatively impact major mining companies such as BHP Group and Rio Tinto, collectively representing approximately 5% of the index.
Agriculture: Given China's status as a key market for Australian agricultural products, the sector would experience significant revenue losses. This would affect companies involved in grain, meat, and dairy production, although their overall weight in the S&P/ASX 200 is relatively smaller.
Tourism: The tourism industry, still recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic, would face renewed challenges due to decreased international travel. Qantas Airways, a prominent component of the S&P/ASX 200, would be directly affected by declining passenger numbers.
Financial Services: The broader financial system would likely experience increased volatility, credit rating downgrades, and elevated insurance claims. Australia's major banks, including Commonwealth Bank, Westpac, and ANZ, which collectively hold substantial weight in the S&P/ASX 200, would be exposed to these risks.
Implications for the S&P/ASX 200
The S&P/ASX 200, as a market-capitalization-weighted index, would undoubtedly reflect the economic challenges posed by a Sino-Taiwanese conflict. Given the significant weightings of mining and financial services in the index, a sharp decline is highly probable. The severity and duration of the market downturn would depend on the scale and duration of the conflict.
Historical Precedent
While direct comparisons are limited due to evolving economic structures and geopolitical contexts, historical data from World War II and the Korean War provide valuable insights. Both periods were characterized by significant market volatility, with sharp declines followed by varying recovery periods.
Conclusion
A Sino-Taiwanese conflict presents substantial economic risks for Australia, with the S&P/ASX 200 serving as a barometer of these challenges. The potential impact on the Australian economy and financial markets underscores the importance of robust risk management strategies and contingency planning.
AUS200 in Bullish TrendI have been monitoring this index for quite a while. It made a bearish flag on an hourly chart. There was a bullish divergence which propelled the chart to get bullish which resulted in the formation of a bearish flag. I was waiting for a breakout of a bearish flag to put a short trade for the index but the breakout turned out to be a false one. The trend is bullish now and I have marked a key support level. I have now placed a pending order of Buy Limit by using FIB. No divergence is noted on the current trend.
The Signal is:
EP: 7828.22
SL: 7765.61
TP: 7890.83
RR: 0.5%
AUS200 ANALYSIS AUS200 has formed a sweep of the previous high and then change of Character waiting for the retest of the the failed order block which will be my entry.
AUS----200-------Bearish there are series of lower low and low high and before there is bearish divergence and trend is retest the support becomes resistance
Cypher to Break Aussie FlagASX200 is in a Bullish Flag configuration, as this equity index (as with many others) is in
a corrective mode.
Within this pattern, a Harmonic may also be in the making. Specifically, a Cypher Pattern with
a 1.41 extension.
Keeping a watch on this index for a move towards 7825-7850.
In a larger scheme, this move is simply a retest of a HTF breakout.
If price holds above 8000 , it would be a bullish sign.
Below 7800, and its back into the Rectangular consolidation.
AUS2001) Range breakout
2) Aus200 Printing HH and HL
Move your Stop Loss to the Entry Point when TP 1 get hit.
Is it over for AUS200 bulls? The Australian Stock Market Index ended last week with a powerful breakout from a 107-day-old triangle pattern. Despite corrections this pattern remains valid as long as the index stays above the breakout candle low of 7795. Between 7902 and 7795, traders are likely to seek buying opportunities on dips, aiming for the pattern target of 8197.
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Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information.
XJO (ASX200): 19 JUL, 2024© Master of Elliott Wave Analysis: Hua (Shane) Cuong, CEWA-M (Master's Designation).
Forecast: Bullish
Position: Fourth Wave
Wave (iii)-orange is opening up to push higher, it is subdividing into wave iv-gray. The fourth wave will push down a bit and soon expire, then the gray v-wave will return to continue pushing higher.
Invalidation point: 7,819.0
Aussie Flag BreakoutThe ASX 200 on the intraday chart has formed a Pole and Flag Pattern. It appears there maybe a breakout to the upside.
The long trade is on chart
1. Enter - at breakout of 8050
2. Stop - if this is a valid breakout, then 1/3 the flag consolidation should be sufficient.
3. Target - Either a measured move or the D point
RR = 3+
AUS---200-----Bullishthere is no divergence in H4 when see round shape make a entry and there is break of resistance
AUS200-----Bearishthere is price rejection at resistance with divergence also there is cross of 20ema with 50 ema
