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DE10YBEUR trade ideas

German Bund Is On The Rise, So As EURUSD PairWe talked about a bullish turn on German Bund back on June 20th, where we mentioned and highlighted more gains within wave C of an A-B-C rally, which can also recover the EURUSD pair. As you can see today on August 05, German Bund is extending strongly higher within a five-wave bullish cycle for wave C with space up to 140 area. At the same time EURUSD is also nicely recovering due to a positive correlation and with still bullish Bund, EURUSD can easily see more upside.
OANDA:DE10YBEURLong
by ew-forecast
Bund BashThis shouldn't happen. But I imagined it and I thought that I would make it real. The drawing. The market might not agree with me. But I will be looking forward to see any price action that might signal the end of another wave. Regardless of the direction of the future. Easier to draw the past, than to predict the end and the beginning. Of another wave. Of another move. Or another bounce. A rebound. From a level. Or a shape. Or a drawing. I am still exploring the potential of my imagination and this is a new type of approach. Hopefully it doesn't disappoint me.
OANDA:DE10YBEUR
by nen
1
Bund StepsA simple representation of potential support and resistance zones (larger rectangles) projected in time, meaning once the price is past their time zone, the price levels might not hold the same amount of relevance. Looking for price action with potential candlestick patterns for reversals (pivot points), also looking for candlestick shadows at the shapes. Small rectangles pose just as milestones or guiding elements for potential price tendencies. Icons are usually potential price predictions/projections in time but a hit is not required. Considering the overall picture the main scenario might suggest resistance zone at the red rectangle, and support level at the blue, with overall tendency pointing upwards through the orange rectangles toward the Target Icon. A short at the red might be too bold for the swing trader even though the recent general move was downwards, from 133 to 127. The blue rectangle is also quite low, and there is the possibility of having a pivot point above it, without it ever being touched. This is a continuation of the previous Matrix project on this market. (Linked Idea)
OANDA:DE10YBEUR
by nen
No coincidences hereThis is a new type of experiment regarding the simulation of scenarios. I am bullish biased on this one because of the candlestick pattern on the Daily chart. Looking forward to see if there is any meaning to these drawings and their correlation with the future price action. Strategy and money management are key to success? The law of large numbers has its own story and puts everything in context. The context of probabilities and potentials. I am more interested in creating drawings that make sense after the future unfolds, exploring the computational potential of the unconscious brain activity, if it exists.
OANDA:DE10YBEUR
by nen
Actual end of an era. And it is happening fast.Western interest rates starting going back up in the end. Looks like the whole "new paradigm" is over. Money is not free anymore. To sum up: - Boomers got 110% of the wealth (other generations are in debt), they are aging and getting more conservative, covid got them even more scared and conservative (risk averse); - Generally investor outlook on the economy which was not even positive for the last 20 years (buybacks and money printing were the bulls) is now rather negative; - Average people are starting to notice the money printing. Memes and permabears are doing their jobs. And those that do not notice want to go far right or far socialist even thought they have no clue why they want to. So central bankers cannot continue to print to infinity; - All the indicators clearly show people are not spending or lending their money since early 2020, they are hodling, no arguing is possible (unless the data is somehow incorrect), it is necessary to somehow entice them (with higher rates) to get that money; - And boy does the west need the money Bonus (technical): - Well just look at it go I'm going to go straight to the point and not go into a lenghty explanation about every point. i doubt many beginners are reading about the bund anyway. A shame, might be easy money... The TA/chart reminds me of the typical textbook stairs up elevator down chart. Reminds me of AUDJPY when the "housewives" were mass buying the AUD because of high rates, and then all ran for the exits in just months. In the case of bonds people are not running for the exits but it's the same idea mirrored. People with $$$ are not as eager to lend it anymore, and euro governments need as much magical ponzi beans as they can get to bounce back from the whole covid thing, and maintain fake prosperity and power for a few more years... or months. Well french president Emmanuel Macron said "abundance is over" and warned we should get ready, so at least he is honest. Germany has been teaching its population to warm itself without electricity last year. France relies on nuclear power but hey guess what french nuclear worker are on strike, french favorite national passtime. People have been spending less as you can see in this chart. So it takes a bigger carrot on a stick to get them to lend it. Reminder: velocity of money is the frequency at which it is spent. Lower value on the chart means people are holding tight on their liquidities more. Hey, people thought the USD not going to zero with all the printing and government spending and usstock bubble getting inflated would have no downside. Ye investors were buying us dollars because they were optimistic and just super bullish on this awesome not-a-scam currency and us economy right. I am also short on oil price will go down but for all the bad reasons, I'm feeling like the barrel price will be low low low but price at the pump will be high high high which won't even matter since the gaz station probably won't even have gaz. Boomers got all the money and boomers are aging, and scared to die soon, they are starting to not care about progress. Average humans stay in denial so long, but once panic starts to hit does it go fast. Any herd thing goes fast. I mean ask anyone that studies crowds. Mindless reptilian brains (85% of the population) at a concert watch a dozen people dancing like they are martians, they think they are so weird, then a few zombies start to dance and it's like a nuclear chain reaction all the zombie-sheep dance in seconds, only a dozen people are not dancing and the zombies stare at them and think they are weird stuck-up psychopaths. One could potentially take at least 5R, even 10-15 if it accelerates down (/up). Does it get harder and harder to find people to lend money (especially as high IR makes people/boomers scaaaared we are becoming Argentina)? Or will the increasing rates convince more and more people to lend? No one actually holds cash do they? Apart from boomers people have between $0 and 50k in debt and I am not making that up (most experienced traders know this). A handful of people we call traders have cash and they definitely are going long the interest rate (short the bund contract) - a few hundred retail traders going countertrend is like a few hundred mosquitoes trying to stop a herd of thousands of raging elephants, ye good luck guys just #HODL. They could continue to monetize the debt and rob poor people, but poor people even thought they have no idea what is going on are starting to get pissed, want to destroy everything and go socialist or far right. When I say poor people I really mean middle class, from low middle class to upper middle class. So every one except hobos collecting food stamps and Bezos & friends. Plus with the democratization of trading in part because of crypto and Robinhood, as well as permabears Peter Schiff and Mike Maloney reaching millions of people on social media, people are starting to figure out what is going on. Even the US socialists have mentionned taxing unrealized gains, I am scared, why do they know about this? Guess what happens when old people hold all the money? Guess what happens when those were promised they would live forever with magical futuristic cyber hearts? Guess what happens when hospitals are getting more and more expensive and they might (immediately) need all the money they have to afford lifesaving intervention (or they could just stop overeating but we all know this is not going to happen). I wonder if covid reminded them of their mortality and they are done investing for the long term, or at all. I wonder if some lost trust in the west capacity to pay back, but I do not have the answer to that it is not part of the analysis. I know "10/10 AAAA++++" France got downgraded years ago. They should all get downgraded really but will they? In 2008 junk bonds did not get downgraded... Well anyway... I don't want to predict the future or be a lifetime permabear I just want to make some money. We are traders we do not care if everything implodes do we?
OANDA:DE10YBEURShort
by MrRenev
Major breakdown in the Bund?The German Bund has broken new trend lows. Despite coming out of the descending wedge a couple weeks back the bullish setup could not produce a sustained bounce. Normally, this would not be a big deal. Just a continuation in trend. However, the reason why this is such a big deal today is that we have broken the 38% Fibonacci retracement that was forged from the 2008 lows to all time highs in 2020. The risk is that the Bund market could freely drop aggressively. However, the RSI is divergent, and on the heels the FOMC this would could influence bond yields globally, including the Bund. Will the major break hold? We should know by the end of the week.
OANDA:DE10YBEUR
by ForexAnalytix
Bunds at major pivotAll the talk in the market these days are that "rates are moving higher" globally, and they are not wrong. And when trying to gauge if the US bond market will continue lower (10yr yields towards 2%), sometimes helping confirm the move with other markets is very important. What we see with the German 10yr bund we are at very critical support which has held as a pivot in the market on July 2016, January 2020, May 2021, November 2021 and today. A break of the 168.70 level could expose a move to the 167.41 level and also confirm yields are rising globally. Our assumption we are at risk of a breakdown tomorrow following the US jobs report. 
OANDA:DE10YBEURShort
by ForexAnalytix