Overview
Ideas
DE10YBEUR trade ideas
Bund Smooth UptrendThe bund has been in a smooth uptrend since Oct 2018.
The bias to enter a trade is to the long.
Enter on a retracement to the past swing high and monthly R1 pivot.
Go long for the R4 pivot.
Stop is just below the swing low
Risk Reward = 2,5
You can use the 50 MAV as a trailing stop loss.
Back the BundThe bund is in an uptrend ( all 3 MAV moving up )
Look to enter with the trend on a pull back to an area of value
1. Prior Swing high now acting as support
2. Fib .5 - .618 retracement
3. 50 MAV acting as dynamic resistance.
Stop is at the prior swing low.
IF you wish to have a target you can set at the midpoint of the fib extensions .272 and .618
Your trigger for entry would be a candlestick rejection to the downside within this area of value......
Bund is at channel support ahead of the ECB.Ahead of the ECB decision the German 10yr bund is at an inflection point with the 166.66 breakout point and channel support being tested. This goes without saying, a break below is bearish, but a pivot from here keeps the bullish momentum alive. RSI was divergent and signaled the turn two weeks ago, but with daily RSI back to mid range, it could go either way now.
Short BundSL 162.6
TP1 161.9 (1:~2)
TP2 161.6 (1:~2.5/3)
Optional TP3 ~161.2 (1:~3.5/4)
4/12/18 price action has extended well past its upper true range value and touched overhead resistance + upper weekly true range. Short from here and aim for minimum 1:2 RR. Move SL down to initial position when TP1 hit, then aim for just before next support @ 161.515. If you want to hold some position thinking it will reach its trendline, go ahead.
Bunds Long Term ViewGerman Government Bonds continue to languish aimlessly in a down-trending channel. The gradual convergence of the moving averages tells us that the market may be close in time to a decision point. Unless the market confidently closes above this channel, it can be assumed that Bunds are topping out in earnest.
The fundamental story behind Bunds is that the rest of Europe sees Germany as the safe haven. This assumption is based on economic political correctness, which refuses to acknowledge the flawed design of the Euro. Thus, whilst the Euro has largely fallen in the same time period, Bunds have benefited from ignorance.
The play will be the short side. It is possible that we are now rounding over. Confirmation will be provided by a break of the channel lows.
We are within a consolidation, so caution is still advised.