Overview
Ideas
DE10YBEUR trade ideas
Sell Bunds on rallies!On thursday ECB president Mario Draghi maintains a dovish tone on rates, Bund reacted with an attempt to rally from lows of 162 and closed 162.36 that day. However that rally was short-lived as the US Dollar continued to strengthen ahead of Trump's inauguration while pushing global bond yields higher.
Bund closed on a critical support level of 162, which has been an area of consolidation since the beginning of 2017. I do expect the markets to rebound on this technical level however, I believe the underlying trend is still intact. As the market reaches a critical resistance at 163.56 it sells off at a much faster pace, as you can see the market grinds slow on rebounds suggesting that selling pressure is still strong. My bias would be to stay short on Bund as sell into corrective rallies.
Macro highlights next week:
- Draghi speaks (23/1/2017)
- German IFO Business Climate (25/1/2017)
- UK Prelim GDP (26/1/2017)
BUND (DE10YBEUR) - Daily - 12/7/2016The price has reached increasing channel's bottom
Resistance has turned into support
positive divergence in RSI and CCI (daily chart)
positive hidden divergence in RSI and CCI (monthly chart)
Time divergence (monthly chart)
RSI has broken trend line (daily chart)
RSI has moved from oversold area
ES/BUND is reaching its resistance and all-time high
Price target is either top of the channel or 179 which is reached by modeling the previous increase.
Bund (DE10YBEUR) - bullish signals in trendAfter an analisys, on the weekly we can see how the price shape a bullish harami.
Going on the daily chart we can see that the price action in trend has started with a doji that will be a resistance point.
Now we are a bit late with time for entry but the price pierced 38,2% Fibo.
Anyway, I think we can go long with first target at the other Fibo level at 164,78 price level with SL at low of the doji.
I'll glad if someone will give below suggestions or his prospectives.
Thanks.
Inverse correlation between Bunds and USD/JPYBunds and USD/JPY are inversely correlated since June 2015. This is precisely the time when market began questioning the efficacy of the BOJ policy and Yen began to rise.
Prior to June 2015, Bunds and USD/JPY pair shared a direct relationship…given that stimulus in Kapan pushed bond prices higher across the globe.
10-yr Bund prices could extend the recovery to 167.00 levels or so over the next week… given the Dollar-Yen pair has suffered repeated failure around September highs and the retreat to 103.60 today amid bearish crossover on the daily MACD suggests the bird is likely to extend losses further over the next week.
Given the inverse relationship… losses in Dollar-Yen means Bund prices could move higher to 167.00 levels.
German 10-yr Bunds at key support, bullish divergence on intradaGerman 10-yr Bund prices dropped to rising trend line support coming from June low and July low.
Prices are attempting a rebound form the rising trend line support and the odds of a solid rebound are high, if we take into consideration the bullish price RSI divergence on the hourly and 4-hr chart. Even the MACD is suggesting the bearish momentum has run out of steam.
Possible rebound in Bund (drop in yields) suggests we may be in for a more pronounced bout of risk aversion in the financial markets.
