#202412 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - daxGood Morning and i hope you are well.
Last week the dax bulls created a potential exhaustive very big island gap, US indexes ranged at the highs, gold ranged after the uber bullish move up and oil did exactly what i have been writing for many weeks now.
No matter how you want to draw it, Nasdaq made lower lows, printed 2 consecutive weekly bear bars (last time was end of October) and closed below the daily 20ema. You can bet your Glutes that i have my hopes up, this will finally roll over. The drops in Bitcoin were also big enough to flip the market to always in short if bulls cant bring this above 70000 again. So i think given Opex and FOMC next week and the price action, we are probably having a key week for the markets ahead of us.
dax
Quote from last week:
bull case: Bears printing a small pullback on the daily chart which probably will be bought up to 18000 and maybe higher. Market gives no signal to stop buying for new highs so algos won't stop. Adjusted my wave outlooks a bit. Nothing bearish about this at all, 18000 is the next logical target and my bullish wave thesis is still going strong. My target was 18400 for this bull leg but ofc it could be that we over/undershoot. If bears manage to get it down to 17700, that was support last time and i expect bulls to buy it again.
This week, bulls formed the third big bullish gap on the daily time frame, since the bull market started 2023-10. So what are the odds of the market doing a fourth before having a bigger correction? If you find an example where German GDP contracted while Dax did this, please let me know. We will close 2 of those 3 gaps in Q2, which would only bring us down to around 17000. The odds of this gap being a measuring one to break above the bull trend line starting 2023-02 are so abysmally small, that we could actually see an island reversal here to mark this as a top. If bulls can keep the gap to 18000 open and break above the bull trend line 18300, i’m fairly certain this won’t stop until 19500/20000.
bull case: Bulls want the daily gap to 18000 to stay open and have the next breakout which could be the third leg up for the latest bull trend that started with the breakout on 2024-02-21. That third leg could give us 18600 and would invalidated the smaller bull trend lines on the chart and give us the bigger one, which started before the Covid crash and could lead to 20000. I think the probability of this happening is as great as Tesla FSD actually being FSD in the next 2 years. Daily 20ema is still 500 points away and has not been touched for more than a month.
bear case: Everything you read in this section makes more sense than the bull case, however, until bears close those bullish gaps and we see the market trading below the daily 20ema, everything in here is low probability as well. Can 18329 be the high and we drop 500 points to trap many bulls? Absolutely. Did the market stop making new all time highs for some time? Hell naw and that’s why you don’t look for shorts until bears show strength.
We again are at multiple upper trend lines, calculated measured move targets and so far away from the 20ema, that if the market turns, it will probably turn violently. Bears first target is still to stop the market from making new ath and close the gap to 18000.
outlook last week: “up is the only way and it will take way more from the bears to stop it. should only look for longs or very big consecutive bear bars with follow through before shorting”
→ Last Sunday we traded 17775 and now we are at 17791. Ok outlook. Bears created very weak bear bars on the daily chart, which made every bear cautious and scalping. Bulls took over on Wednesday where they stalled the market and bears then gave up on Thursday.
short term: break above 18400 and this might just run straight to 18600 and that would open the door for 19000 and 20000. Invalid below 18000 and if bears actually show up, depending on the strength, could easily fall straight to 17700.
medium-long term: the weekly chart gives nothing but bullishness so higher prices are expected. my long term outlook stays bearish and i expect at least a -30% correction in 2024. —unchanged
Chart wave thesis was not updated and is still valid. Will update if either of mentioned breakouts happen.
