Spanish IBEX Head and ShouldersAlready outlined on how central banks will HAVE to keep stocks propped up. This is due to pensions and also the fact that central banks have forced money into stocks as yields were suppressed. A decade ago, you could retire with 1,000,000 and buy government bonds yielding 6-8% making 60,000-80,000 a year...enough to live off of in retirement. Now a days, you would make less than 30,000. In fact, bonds are now being used to trade rather than for yields!
Pensions funds are heavy in bonds and fixed income. They are not making the 8% required per year. In Canada, or pension funds have had to go into stocks and real estate. American social security is still 100% in fixed income...
Now, in some places, even real estate cannot be purchased for 1,000,000 meaning stocks are the only place to go for yield! There is nowhere else to go. Plus, stocks can be liquidated quickly which is important in this environment.
Expect central banks to prop stocks up because they have to in order to keep system propped up. Yes, a geopolitical situation can change this. Watch China for this. But you need to remember, central banks will keep stocks up. Cutting rates means you can only go to stocks for yield. Stimulus will also be reintroduced (very soon imo) but cannot be called QE. When stimulus comes back online there will be a CONFIDENCE CRISIS as people realize we are in 0 rates and fake/managed markets for life.
Check my other posts on these topics.
