NIKKEI VS JPY/USDNIKKEI VS JPY/USD
Both seems to be diverging which translates an inverse relationship. Strategy to follow here is as NIKKEI keeps up momentum, then short the JPY/USD is a good bet and Vice Versa
JP225USD trade ideas
Japans Nikkei 225 Analysis | Will The Rally Last?Hey Traders,
The strong accommodation supplied by the BOJ with their rate setting approach has allowed for continuous growth in the japanese stockmarket.
This needs handling with care. Will it last?
Watch for more.
NIKKIE 225 in bearish using trend lineIf the NIKKEI 225 index is consistently trading below the trend line and the trend line acts as a resistance level, it suggests that the bearish sentiment is strong, and the index is likely to continue its downward movement. Traders often look for additional confirmation signals such as price rejections or bearish candlestick patterns to strengthen their analysis.
Expecting: Price to implied fvg then move back to mid point.Implied fair value gap averages shown by grey box on top and bottom in the SL area. Expecting price to hit one of the two areas then move back towards the mid line center in green tp area
iFVG is purple lines
JPN225 is showing divergence.JPN225 is showing a perfect bearish trend according to DOW theory. FIB numbers also shows that it is moving upward to make another LH but if we look at RSI indicator it is showing divergence at value below 30 so will avoid trading and will wait until the RSI is neutralized and trend is not broken.
JPN225 is showing divergence.JPN225 is showing a perfect bearish trend according to DOW theory. FIB numbers also shows that it is moving upward to make another LH but if we look at RSI indicator it is showing divergence at value below 30 so will avoid trading and will wait until the RSI is neutralized and trend is not broken.
TOP of wave 5 of 3 decline to start NOW I am now moving to a full 90 to 110 % long PUTS in spy and dia I am waiting to be filled in the QQQ puts at some point today We can see a cycle due 4/8 turn
JP225 LET'S FLY SELL ↘️
Its gonna hit the old SUPPORT TEMPLE .
A few lovely pips .
A Use your risk management carefully
Nikkei 225 in weekly outlookDear analysts and traders,
I hope you are doing well and are motivated for the week ahead. I wish you all the success in your business endeavors. Remember that success in trading lies in consistently defining and sticking to your rules.
As someone interested in the Elliott Wave Principle, I find it to be an invaluable tool for market analysis. I have developed my approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and by considering different scenarios that are likely to occur in the market. It should be noted that I do not like to be surprised in the market, and that's why I have different market prospects. I follow them to be sure and recognize the structure that is forming so that I can 100% recognize it.
I will share my analysis with you, but please note that I am not providing any buy or sell signals. My perspective on idea analysis is completely unbiased, so if the idea analysis meets your standards, you can use it as a guide to make an informed decision.
I have attached my previous analysis of the same market so that you can compare and see the differences. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, making it easy for you to understand. However, having a basic familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory will help you understand the analytical idea more easily.
I have been studying the Elliott Wave Principle for almost three years now, and over time, my understanding of this knowledge and experience has grown. What I have achieved so far is the legacy of a genius called Ralph Nelson Eliot, and I am really happy with my progress. May peace be upon him.
Thank you for your support so far. I will always remember your kindness. Please share your comments and criticisms with me.
I hope my analysis will be useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best.
Sincerely,
Mr. Nobody
Five waves! Is the 5th wave extended?Dear analysts and traders,
I hope you are doing well and are motivated for the week ahead. I wish you all the success in your business endeavors. Remember that success in trading lies in consistently defining and sticking to your rules.
As someone interested in the Elliott Wave Principle, I find it to be an invaluable tool for market analysis. I have developed my approach by combining this principle with my personal experience and by considering different scenarios that are likely to occur in the market. It should be noted that I do not like to be surprised in the market, and that's why I have different market prospects. I follow them to be sure and recognize the structure that is forming so that I can 100% recognize it.
I will share my analysis with you, but please note that I am not providing any buy or sell signals. My perspective on idea analysis is completely unbiased, so if the idea analysis meets your standards, you can use it as a guide to make an informed decision.
I have attached my previous analysis of the same market so that you can compare and see the differences. All the details of my analysis are clearly labeled, making it easy for you to understand. However, having a basic familiarity with the Elliott Wave Principle theory will help you understand the analytical idea more easily.
I have been studying the Elliott Wave Principle for almost three years now, and over time, my understanding of this knowledge and experience has grown. What I have achieved so far is the legacy of a genius called Ralph Nelson Eliot, and I am really happy with my progress. May peace be upon him.
Thank you for your support so far. I will always remember your kindness. Please share your comments and criticisms with me.
I hope my analysis will be useful to you in your business journey, and I wish you all the best.
Sincerely,
Mr. Nobody
Nikkei225 held back by yen devaluationDuring today's Asian trading day, Japan's Finance Minister expressed concern over the yen's remarkable weakness against the dollar, reaching a 34-year low. Faced with this situation, the Japanese government is considering taking decisive measures, "Decisive Steps", as expressed by Shunichi Suzuki in autumn 2022, and November 2023, when it intervened in the currency and yesterday he repeated this expression again, forcing the aforementioned historical low to a new state intervention. From last Thursday until yesterday, Wednesday, the Japanese index corrected around 1000 points by -2.25% reaching 40181.08 points, rising again yesterday by 1.97% reaching 40971.02 points and closing the Asian session at 40589.65 points. These strong fluctuations coincide with two elements, on the one hand, as we said, the changes in the Yen, which has reached a devaluation high of ¥151.97 and reduced its price to ¥151.94 after the government's notification.
Markets are assessing the limits of Tokyo and the index in anticipation of significant government intervention, which may signal a new economic cycle high. Speculative investors may push for a devaluation of the yen against the dollar in this currency cross to benefit the market in the coming weeks. This move, a policy change since 2007, may have a significant ripple effect, especially as the yen is used in carry trades, where investors borrow in a low interest rate currency and invest the proceeds in a higher yielding currency. Japanese investors can also earn much higher returns abroad, depriving the yen of support from repatriation flows. During this quarter the yen has been one of the worst performing currencies falling 7% against the dollar.
On the other hand, the Nikkei 225 has performed well, closing the last session at 40791 points, up 0.73% from the previous session, with apparent interest from foreign buyers. An appetite for Asian stocks by non-domestic investors, especially those seeking to diversify in the face of the high appreciation of the main US and European indices. This, coupled with the affordability for foreigners to buy Asian stocks, is driving the index higher.
However, from a technical point of view, looking at the technical aspect, the currency has made several breakouts from the strongest trading zone, which is where the strongest trading zone is located, with a strong control price at 38432.38 points. The divergence RSI shows us 48.66% with the average being 57.33%, so there is no excess demand at this point. What does make a lot of sense is that during the Asian session the price has corrected along with the RSI in a very strong way, and it coincides with the news from the Japanese government. If the predictions of a correction in the price of the currency come true, the Japanese index could face downward pressure, looking for support zones around 40186 points, as it will be less interesting to invest in the Nikkei225 making it return to its current support zone. In the event that this prediction does not come true, and investors continue to maintain their appetite for the Japanese market, the index will continue to enjoy success and may once again seek the current highs at 41121.59 points.
NIKKEI-225 Analysis Indicates Possibility of CorrectionNIKKEI-225 Analysis Indicates Possibility of Correction from Historically High Levels
On March 21, the value of the Japanese stock index reached a historical maximum, exceeding the level of 41,100 points. This was facilitated by:
→ Weak yen supporting exporters. It increases the value of profits earned abroad for a large number of companies that sell their products abroad and then convert the profits into yen.
→ Demand for shares of Japanese companies paying dividends. For example, shares of air conditioner manufacturer Daikin Industries rose by 2.82%.
At the same time, the NIKKEI-225 chart signals indicate the likelihood of a correction, since:
→ The price is near the upper border of the ascending channel, from which resistance can be expected.
→ Based on the results of trading in the Asian session, a long upper shadow is forming on today’s candle – a sign of selling pressure (as shown by the arrow). It seems that the price of NIKKEI-225 is difficult to stay above the level of 41,000.
If the Japanese stock market follows a correction scenario, the price of NIKKEI-225 may be supported by:
→ the lower boundary of a steeper ascending channel (shown in purple), which runs in the area of the Fibonacci level = 50% of the A→B impulse;
→ psychological level of 40,000.
Bearish sentiment for NIKKEI-225 could be triggered by decisions from the Bank of Japan and the Ministry of Finance, which are concerned about the weakness of the yen — the USD/JPY rate is today near a 34-year low.
This article represents the opinion of the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand only. It is not to be construed as an offer, solicitation, or recommendation with respect to products and services provided by the Companies operating under the FXOpen brand, nor is it to be considered financial advice.
NIKKEI Gradually turning bearish for the next 3 months.Nikkei (NI225) has given us one of the best long-term trades last year (May 26 2022, see chart below), as we gave a signal for the most optimal buy entry one could expect, on the 10 year (since October 2012) Higher Lows trend-line, and from 26000 it has now surpassed 40000:
The question is obvious: what do we do from here, especially after the remarkable bullish start to 2024? To answer that, we have to to go to the logarithmic scale on the 1W time-frame and observe the Channel Up since the June 2012 bottom.
The biggest fact is that the current bullish leg of the Channel (since the March 2022 Low), has already surpassed the roughly +63% magnitude of the previous two legs by +3%. This suggests that we are forming the current Higher High but the 1W RSI hasn't yet made a Higher High of its own, so the rally may be extended for a few weeks more.
What has been very consistent though during this 12-year Channel Up, is the tops as identified by the Sine Waves. The next Wave Top is on January 2025 and that would be the time to sell towards a 1W MA200 (orange trend-line) test again. Nikkei though has formed the previous Highs on Double Tops, so it is possible to make a 1W MA50 (blue trend-line) correction now and then rebound towards January 2025 for a Double Top peak.
As a result, we now turn bearish on Nikkei for the next 3 months, targeting 36000 and after the 1W MA50 holds, buy again for an end-of-year target at 40000, before the next correction/ Bear Cycle starts.
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Is this a massive crab pattern?Japan recently officially announced a recession and then the BoJ raised interest rates for the first time in 17 years.
Which, of course, means Nikkei makes a new high for the first time in 30 yrs.
Because nothing is ever allowed to make any sense.
But maybe this is a massive crab pattern...
Which would make this a massive high.
Could be a larger expression the same type of pattern have have in SPX.
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If this fails, then it may be time to seriously consider the mega bull forecast I put out previously. I went long this in 2022 but got out while we were close to the high.
If the bear patterns fail, the case for a brand spanking new trend leg in Japan equities is viable.
But huge risk area here.
NIKKEI225 : THE BoJ ENDS THE NEGATIVE RATE ERA- The Japanese benchmarks has been registering higher highs and lows since 2023, the long-term trend is therefore bullish.
- Since the bullish breakout of the flag pattern, prices have accelerated to a new all-time high at 40,470pts.
Since then, the market pulled-back over 38,525pts, mostly driven by profit taking following a sharp rally, as well as anticipation of an hawkish monetary move from the BoJ.
Both 13 and 21 period moving averages remain bullish and the MACD indicator stays well-oriented in buying zone, with no sign of a bearish divergence so far.
- On one hand, it would be understandable to expect a little correction, or lateral consolidation following the strong acceleration prices have registered since the beginning of 2024, especially as the market now trades in uncharted territory.
However, technical indicators don't show any sign of a slowdown to come so far, and the final objective given by the flag pattern consolidation hasn't been reached yet.
In addition, the market has surprisingly reacted quite well to the BoJ's first rate hike in 17 years, probably because of a "sell the rumor and buy the news" phenomenon.
Investors and analysts are now split regarding the next rate hike from the Bank of Japan, which means that any hawkish hints or wording during the next meeting could significantly put pressure on the market.
On the other hand, if BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda maintains an overall dovish stance, this could further fuel the rally on japanese stocks.
For now the 41,400pts target remains valid if the market manages to clear the last 40,470pts resistance, and an extension towards 43,800pts is also a possibility.
Pierre Veyret, Technical Analyst at ActivTrades
The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has no been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such is to be considered to be a marketing communication.
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If Boj decided to up its rate, nikkei could see more down sideello fellow traders , my regular and new friends!
Welcome and thanks for dropping by my post.
simple as that as mentioned in title. :)
Do check out my stream video for the week to have more explanation in place.
Do Like and Boost if you have learnt something and enjoyed the content, thank you!
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The analysis shared through this channel are purely for educational and entertainment purposes only. They are by no means professional advice for individual/s to enter trades for investment or trading purposes.
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J225J225 Bearish idea, price change structure as per 30M bullish to bearish, our entry at current market price, stop loss and target price are mentioned on chart.
J225J225 Bullish idea, trend shift from bearish to bullish, our entry is at current market price, stop loss and target price is mentioned on chart.
JPN225 sell ideaJPN225 is on its all time high
It has broken previoues 4H low and might go lower to the highlighted region
Nikkei 225 Long Looking to long the Nikkei from 38750.
Indices are pushing strong at the moment across the board, and there is no reason yet to be bearish until a drastic shift in structure or in the fundamental outlook globally.
Stop Loss on this position will be: 250 points to cover the H12 50MA
Looking to take profits above the high for continued strength.
Confluences:
38% fibo, first time the bullrun has touched this*
Intra KL/KL
H1250MA
JPN225 LongPrevious long area did not the support the JPN225 therefore interest is now aligned to the next area of long interest in the JPN225.
COT data released Friday, shows us that institutions have been adding long positions to the JPN225 suggesting there is still a potential for a higher movement.
Confluences for this area of interest to long:
Big 23.6% fibo
Retest of the trendline previously broken
Key Level present
As well as the psychological number 38000
My position: Looking to long from 38177
SL of 200 points
Take profits gradual at 1:2 & 1:3
Catch you later traders ▲
Short term long and possibility of a reversalAfter studying JPN chart for good amount of time, I came to conclusion that the price will go up in the next few days then, there's a high probability of reversal. After going up steadily for two months, the price has broken the structure and made L, LL and LH in all major TFs. The RSI showing a strong reversal divergence in M, and W and interestingly, bullish continuation from D all the way to 1H.
