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NAS100USD trade ideas

NAS100, morning/bearish analysisBearish count for NAS100. Completed primary impulse off October 2022 low of 10431.1, 103.69% move from low to high. Ending contracting diagonal (wedge) to complete the impulse. Wave ((3)) is 3.618x the length of ((1)), and wave ((5)) is 1.618x the length of ((1)). Price does not look likely to tag median line (red line) of pitchfork, which strongly suggests a move back below 18500 at a minimum. First key support is 19888.5, then fib supports until 17235.
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100Short
by discobiscuit
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Thursday 14 Nov 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you! Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST) Economic news - PPI and Initial jobless claims News - None Directional bias - Not sure, morning analysis should guide Morning analysis: M TF - Still very bullish, this months candle is up 10'700 pips but still 15 days till candle close. This shows that on the highest level, Nas is very bullish. W TF - At time of writing this morning, candle is red. The red body is about 1500 pips. This indicates short term bearish bias. Look at last week's candle close, which closed at an all time high after breaking a very strong W resistance, it is reasonable to expect price to retrace. D TF - Price action is showing that price is stalling. There are very long wick candles for 4 days, which represent the struggle between bulls and bears. As candle bodies are red, we see that bears are slowing managing to push price lower and lower. The way candles look at time of writing, I view this TF to be bearish. 4H TF - Shows a choppy market. There are no clear higher highs and higher lows or lower high and lower lows. Price is spiking widely in either direction, again representing the intense battle between bulls and bears. Three things are clear though, bulls have been unable to break the 0.618 SELL fib level (fib drawn from swing high at B. to swing low at A.). Bulls have been unable to break the 4H H&S neckline upwards. And lastly, up until yesterday, the 4H EMA was acting as dynamic support with bears being unable to break through downwards. But now this morning we have a clear 4H candle close below the EMA and if the 7am 4H candle closes below the EMA again, it shows that bulls were unable to push sellers back up at this level. 1H - Price is in a very bearish position. The 4H and 1H EMA are now above price and can be expected to act as dynamic resistance. The daily pivot point is also above price. Bulls will have to step in with volume and momentum to be able to break through these stacked resistance levels. Directional bias - looks very bearish. If 4H candle closes at a lower low beneath the 4H EMA, I would consider a sell. Otherwise if a DB forms on the 1H TF and breaks the neckline and subsequently the 1H and 4H EMA, I will enter a buy. No set bias today because TF showing bearish bias, while M TF is still bullish. It's also concerning that good CPI news was not enough to break through the sell fib levels. I will let price action indicate what Nasdaq wants to do today. As the day progressed: So indeed the 7am 4H candle closed below the EMA. I did not enter a sell because I noted that the candle closed exactly at the 100 EMA of the 1H TF (marked with the thick blue line). It can be seen that this EMA has provided dynamic support to 3 candle touches before at A, C and D.. So in an effort to avoid repeating yesterday's mistake (of buying at resistance), I didn't want to sell at dynamic support. So moving down to the 5min and 15min TF after this candle closed, it was clear that price could not break this support and I did not enter a sell. Then.... Entered a buy at the hand icon - Confirmations: 1. Market pattern - a DB formed on the 1H, with the neckline broken upwards. The break of the neckline was with a huge momentum candle breaking both the EMAs (1H EMA and 4H EMA - at time of entry the 4H EMA was in the position as marked by the purple line) 2. S&R - Pivot point broken 3. Trend - Temporary downtrend (marked in blue broken) 4. Fib - DB formed below the 0.618 fib level Mental SL placed at half the height of the DB that I entered in on. Unfortunately, price came back down and I close my position at my stop loss. Decided to be out for the day. What could I have done differently? Losses are inevitable in trading. They will happen, whether you like it or not. The only question is....are you happy with your loss or not. I am happy with this loss. I entered on good confirmations and I also entered with half my usual position size because my plan was to enter the other half position if price re-tested the neckline of the DB and moved up again. So by entering small I managed my risk. I have had this experience before where I enter on a high TF (1H) DB and price still moves down. This happened when Nas was making bigger TF retracements. Also, at time of writing (tonight) the D candle has a long red body. If it closes with a long red body...it means we are entering a waterfall situation where price is pushing down with bigger and bigger candle bodies, gaining momentum. Nas turning very bearish. Will need to consider my directional bias carefully tomorrow and only enter buys on 4H DB or 1H DB if the neckline has been re-tested and price then still moves up. Hope you caught the nice sell! Abbreviations: TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support & resistance H&S = head & shoulders EMA = exponential moving average SL = stop loss
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Tuesday 12 Nov 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you! Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST) Economic news - None, CPI on Wednesday News - None Directional bias - I stick with a BUY as I view the red candles on the bigger TF as a retracement rather than a change of market sentiment. I would need a bit more price action evidence to be convinced that we are in a bear market....up until then, I continue to look for buys in what I see as a bull market. Morning analysis: M TF - very bullish, candle is 11'000 pips strong at time of writing (Tuesday morning). Still 17 days to go until candle close but definitely indicative of strong bull sentiment overall W TF - week candle has turned red (at time of writing on Tuesday morning), indicating that price is in an area where bears have stepped into play. Need to be careful and need good confirmation for entering a buy, as bears may still push for a further retracement. Time to whip out sell fibs on the smaller time frames and start analysing those too to understand if price is respecting these sell levels and sell TP points. This does not mean I waiver from my directional bias as a buy, but it helps me set buy TP's (possibly at strong sell fib levels) and understand bearish price action. D TF - D TF shows price stalling at this zone. We have a doji candle from Friday and a red (colour change) candle from Monday. If bears do push for a lager TF retracement, then it can be expected that price will move down significantly, as the D and W 0.382 fib level is 3'800 pips down. 4H TF - price seems be to struggling to break the 0.50 sell fib level (4H candles are failing to close above this level at C, D, E and F on the chart). Long wick candles are forming with wicks sticking out the top, indicating that bulls are trying to push higher but bears are successfully pushing back down at the 0.50 SELL fib level and the 0.618 SELL fib level. Looking at the line chart, a head and shoulders pattern is forming, with a neckline slanted upwards (indicated in blue lines). If bears break this neckline downwards, the price could move down and test the 4H EMA. The blue vertical line represents the distance that price would most probably move down if the neckline is broken (price usually moves the same distance as the height of the market pattern). Buy fib in the morning was drawn from swing low at A. to swing high at B. 1H - Monday and Tuesday's pivot points are close to each other. This indicates that price is in a strong area of S&R. It remains to be seen if this zone will act as a support for a push up, or resistance for a push down. As the morning progressed, a falling wedge started forming on the 1H TF, as marked by the torquoise lines. Falling wedge pattern usually breaks upward, but can break in either direction. Due to strong bearish presence, I decided to only enter if the 1H TF gave a signal. 1H TF is pretty strong on Nasdaq and I would manage my risk this way. Entered a buy at the hand icon - Confirmations: 1. Trend - a buy is in the same direction as the overall trend. I prefer trading with the trend as “the trend is your friend”. 2. S&R - price broke the pivot point + EMA with a good momentum candle. 3. Market pattern - a falling wedge pattern had formed which broke upwards. The temporary downtrend line (the top line of the falling wedge was broken) indicating that the temp downtrend was over. 4. Fib - price was respecting the 4H BUY 0.382 fib level (written in purple) and price finally broke the 0.50 SELL fib level For me all of this was strong confirmation that buyers had stepped in and that price was ready to move up. Mental SL placed below the lowest candle wick below the falling wedge, as indicated by the pink line. Unfortunately for me, price moved straight back down and I closed in my stop loss area when candles started closing below my pink line. Took a loss of 568 pips. Not too bad pip wise, but because I felt the confirmations were solid, I entered with a full position size. After that I was out for the day, as I "felt" (intuition that comes with LOTS of screen time) Nas wasn't moving as it normally does. What could I have done differently? Some part of me puts this loss to variance i.e. sometimes price will do what it wants and move against you no matter how good confirmations were. But another part of me recognises that the green candle I entered on (at the hand icon), closed at exactly the same price point as the green candle under B. From B. you can see that price moved down significantly from this point. So I basically entered a buy at resistance. I should have waited for the next 5min or 15min candle close to be sure that the resistance would not push price back down again (which is exactly what happened). I won't be trading CPI, I feel that in high impact news, I am not able to stack the odds in my favour. So hope you did better than me, good luck with CPI and catch you tomorrow! :) P.S. #NasdaqNerd - don't you think its so cool how price really did move down to the profit target (end of blue vertical line)! It happens so regularly that price respects market pattern profit targets so perfectly :) Abbreviations: TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support & resistance EMA = exponential moving average SL = stop loss
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
NAS100 UPDATE - Possible Target20SMA - Blue 200SMA - Pink Key Confluence Areas - Grey Lines Market Structure Support/Resistance - Green/Red Dashed Lines Your interest motivates me: If you find my analysis helpful, please boost and follow me for future analysis at your service. How I see it: If the black trend resistance is broken and held to the upside, a surprise reversal might be in play. CPI Data can be tricky, especially now. If structure holds under the trend resistance, consecutive lower lows will ensure completion of the structure (H&S) = Nice correction (SHORT) POSSIBLE TARGET: 20700 - 20600 The most important to consider always, before you leap: When you jump in the river, make sure you are swimming "WITH" the current!! KEYNOTE: Never trade the actual data release, wait for your confirmations afterwards...! I deeply appreciate you taking the time to study my analysis and point of view.
UShort
by ANROC