NAS100USD trade ideas
NASDAQ Huge Bullish Divergence points to 21350 inside April.Nasdaq (NDX) has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since the July 11 2024 High. The latest rally that started on March 11 2025 after a brutal 3-week downtrend/ Bearish Leg, got rejected on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) as the market digested the disappointing PCE.
Despite this aggressive rejection, the price hit and rebounded yesterday exactly at the bottom of the Channel Up with the previous such contact going back to the August 05 2024 Low. Not to mention that both the March 11 2025 and August 08 2024 Lows were formed exactly on the secondary Higher Lows trend-line.
What's perhaps more critical than any of these though, is that the 1D RSI didn't make a new Low last week and remains above the oversold barrier on a Higher Low trend-line that is a huge technical Bullish Divergence against the price's Lower Lows.
As with the August 22 2024 High, our first short-term Target is on the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level at 21350.
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Nas 3/31/2025I am working on looking at the bigger picture, and this is what I am seeing with NAS.
I do not have the percentages and what not correct on my GANN box just FYI, but that would be the zone I am watching. I think she may go a little higher, but then after that, there is a strong support line from August 2024 not far below, that I think she will continue to drop down too, and then decide which trend she want's to go for from there. lol
Yes, NAS is a girl to me.
She is too indecisive, not to be, lol
NASDAQ: Forming the bottom. Don't miss the 2025 rally to 28,000.Nasdaq is bearish on its 1D technical outlook (RSI = 35.342, MACD = -382.320, ADX = 38.919), headed towards oversold territory. 1W is also headed towards an oversold state (RSI = 36.953) as the price has crossed under the 1W MA50 and is approaching the 1W MA100. This is currently waiting at the bottom of the 2 year Channel Up. This 6 month correction is so far technically nothing but the bearish wave of this Channel Up and has been almost as strong (-15.89%) as the previous in July-Aug 2024.
Notice an key technical tendency here, no correction/bearish wave has ever crossed under the S1 level of two highs before. The current S1 is at 18,400. So taking those conditions into consideration as well as the fact that the 1W RSI is at the bottom of its Channel Down, we see this week as the bottom formation candle that will start a new bullish wave. The prior two such waves both made an incredibly symmetric rise of +52.60%, so expecting the same puts our target at TP = 28,000, most likely by December 2025-January 2026.
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Nasdaq 100 Opens the Door to a New Bearish TrendThe Nasdaq has been one of the indices showing the strongest selling bias in recent sessions. Over the past four trading days, it has fallen by more than 7% , as the market remains gripped by uncertainty surrounding White House trade policies and the threat of a new trade war. The proposed 25% tariffs on several countries are expected to take effect on April 2, and so far, there has been no official indication of a change in schedule. This has increased fears of a potential global economic slowdown, and if these conditions persist, it could further pressure equity indices, especially those already showing strong short-term bearish momentum.
New Potential Downtrend
Since February 20, the Nasdaq has been experiencing consistent selling pressure, driving the index below the 19,000-point level. Recent bullish attempts have so far failed to break through this new downward trendline, which now stands as the dominant technical structure for the index. If selling pressure remains intact, the current bearish trend could extend over the coming sessions.
ADX Indicator
Although the ADX line remains above the 20 level—generally considered the threshold for trend strength—it has been sloping downward, suggesting that the recent buying momentum may be losing strength, potentially leading to a short-term pause in market activity.
RSI Indicator
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) shows a similar picture. The RSI is hovering near the oversold zone at 30, and a bullish divergence has formed, as the Nasdaq has made lower lows, while the RSI has posted higher lows. This could indicate that selling momentum may be weakening, potentially paving the way for a short-term bullish correction.
Key Levels:
20,500 points – Distant resistance: This level aligns with the 200-period moving average. Price action approaching this area could revive bullish sentiment and potentially invalidate the current downtrend visible on the chart.
19,700 points – Near resistance: This level marks the upper boundary of the short-term descending trendline. It may serve as a tentative area for corrective upward movements in the upcoming sessions.
18,800 points – Key support: This level corresponds to 2024’s neutral price zone. If the price breaks below it, it could reinforce the current bearish trend and lead to further downside.
By Julian Pineda, CFA – Market Analyst
NQ: Q/M/W Analysis!FA Analysis
ST/MT/LT Outlook: SELL
1- US Economy: Recession/slowing down economy
2- Inflation is UP!
3- Trump's policies: Tariffs; Treasury hole;
4- Consumer sentiment and corporation sentiment are down
5- FED has hands tied; under Trump's pressure; confirmed uncertainty
6- Europe is waking up: Major investments in Infrastructures and Defense; Europe is and will attract investments (US equities DOWN Versus EUR Equities UP)
7- GOLD made new ATH seeking the sky as a response to UNCERTAINTY.
All the above are very bad for US equities.
7- This week, we have key employment data (i.e., Jolts and NFP). Market expectations are very low. But I won't be surprised if NFP data comes NEGATIVE.
8- April 2nd: US tariffs comes into effect!
9- Market made already their decision: sell-off! Even with good news (i.e., today's Europe bending knee); So any good news will be short live, unless all these non-sense tariffs go away which is unlikely.
TA Analysis:
Quarterly TF
Strong bearish Q candle! A confirmed break of TL, it means continuation down.
Monthly TF
Same here: strong bearish Monthly candle!
The chart shows next key targets.
Weekly TF
Same thing: Very strong bearish weekly close. This weekly candle is the strongest bearish candle you may have!
Price closed below 19620 (mentioned previously). During the last week, price bounced to test the previous swing of 19620 and grabbed liquidity and went down in an impulsive way. This wave still have room to continue down.
Daily TF
Last Friday daily candle is now the new strong resistance that buyers have to go through to make a change of structure. Many large sellers are sitting there.
NASDAQ 55% dip coming? The next two weeks are critical...I haven't posted on here in a minute but the NAS is looking weak, along with the SP and DOW, but mainly the SP and NAS. The next two weeks are critical to the remainder of the year. If we breach the 2024 high and close below it in January, I anticipate more lows. If we breach above it, and can hold above it through mid-February, we're probably looking at another bullish year.
My analysis points to a consolidation with bearish intent on the horizon, with a potential target of 9,800.
The tools I used in this video are liquidity techniques.
This is a macro/yearly analysis.
There is no "setup" I only use yearly outlooks to help me gauge sentiment.
The possible catalyst for us to breach and reverse the 2024 high could be inauguration. The time window to monitor is now through the Super Bowl.
If you want to learn my style of trading I'm opening a group this summer, give me a follow on trading view and I'll reach out to you when it launches.
....
I apologize for any noises in the background, and my explanations being a little scattered, I'm busy but wanted to get this analysis done real quick before it was too late, or I forgot, I've been meaning to post this since early December.
Us100 Upward or downward?In the 5-minute timeframe, you can sell at the top of the trading range and buy at the bottom of the trading range (by observing reversal candles and patterns).
Alternatively, you can wait for a breakout and enter in the direction of the breakout.
Be mindful of fake breakouts.
NAS100 EYESI am honestly intending to see some buys, so I did not draft for this video hence my mind was all over the zones and the gaps, I wannit to talk bias but I ended up analyzing to trade. I am sorry about that but we will fix it as soon as possible. Happy Trading.
Lastly, if your plan fail, don't reconsider another entry, especially on the same day.
How Low Could the Nasdaq Go?The Nasdaq-100 has pulled the broader market lower since late February. What could be next for the tech-heavy index?
The first pattern to consider is the 20,315 level: its post-election pullback low on November 15. NDX slid below that price in early March and rebounded to stall at the same area last week. That could make some chart watchers think old support has become new resistance.
The index also peaked at its 200-day simple moving average (SMA), which may suggest the longer-term trend has grown more bearish. The falling 8- and 21-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) may paint a similar picture in the shorter term.
That combination of patterns, including a lower high at old support, could make traders expect a lower low. The September trough near 18,400 may be a logical place to look.
We’ll next consider two important charts impacting the Nasdaq.
First, Apple NASDAQ:AAPL made a potentially lower high at its falling 21-day EMA. It also stalled at a 50 percent retracement of a recent move. The 50-day SMA may be nearing a “death cross” under the 200-day SMA, as well.
Second, the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index NASDAQ:SOX closed slightly below its previous low from April. Does it face risk of a further breakdown?
If those two charts result in bearish price action, it may additionally keep pressure on NDX.
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NAS100 selling pressure continues due to Apple stock declineHello traders,
As I highlighted in my previous NAS100 analysis, I expected a move to the downside. Technically, the index formed a double top, which was confirmed by a neckline break. Additionally, it has fallen below the rising support trendline from November 2024 and successfully retested it. This week, I anticipate further downside continuation. For an optimal selling opportunity, keep an eye on price action during the New York AM session. Ideally, I’d like to see a minor pullback to 19,200 before considering short positions, with the index potentially targeting liquidity at 18,297 and possibly extending to the 17,235 low from August 2024.
From a fundamental perspective, several factors are reinforcing our bearish outlook on NAS100:
Trade Tariff Concerns – New U.S. tariff measures are fueling trade war fears, weighing on tech stocks.
Inflation & Fed Policy – Higher inflation raises concerns about prolonged high interest rates.
Tech Sector Weakness – Leading NAS100 stocks like Apple and Nvidia are experiencing declines.
Stay cautious and trade wisely! 🚀
NAS100 - Stock market still in a downtrend?!The index is trading below the EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is trading in its descending channel. If the index moves down, it will be clear that it is heading for further moves. At the channel ceiling, I could be close to the next sell-off.
As the new US tariffs are set to take effect on April 2, new evidence suggests that they may be less than the markets had expected. According to a recent report in the Toronto Star, Canada is likely to face the lowest level of tariffs, while Mexico, another member of the US trade agreement, is likely to face a similar situation. In addition, Trump’s recent statements about significant progress in controlling fentanyl (an industrial drug), are seen as a positive sign for improving trade relations.
In this regard, CNBC reported that VAT and non-tariff barriers will not be taken into account in calculating the tariff rate, or at least not fully. The main concern is that by threatening to impose a 25% tariff, Trump is actually preparing Canada and Mexico to accept higher rates than the current conditions. It seems that his goal is to impose the highest possible tariff level. This decision could be an incentive to increase tariff revenue to reduce taxes. Of course, such an approach is associated with high risks, since any level of tariffs can lead to retaliatory measures from trading partners.
In the case of Europe, tariffs imposed on American goods are higher than in other countries, but a large part of them relate to the automotive industry. Europe has previously announced that it is ready to reduce these tariffs. The question now is whether the EU will take a different approach than Mexico and Canada? That is, first impose higher tariffs and then negotiate to reduce them.
This scenario could ultimately benefit the US economy, as the bulk of its trade is with Mexico and Canada. Meanwhile, China remains a complex challenge, as it is the main target of Trump’s tariff policies. In addition, the US president recently proposed imposing tariffs on Venezuela, which could be a pretext for intensifying trade pressure on China. Polls show that 50% of the market expects new tariffs on China, which indicates the level of investor concern.
The European Union has reacted to the Trump administration’s decision to impose new tariffs on imported cars and expressed regret over the move. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has said the bloc will seek a negotiated solution to ease tensions, but she has also stressed that Europe’s economic interests will be protected against US trade policies.
The US credit rating has risen to a new low, according to a new report from Moody’s, which warns that tax cuts and trade tariffs could widen the country’s budget deficit.
Analysts at Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank say investors expect the effective tariff rate on all imports to be between 9% and 10%, although some analysts at Goldman Sachs have suggested a rate of 18%. However, inflation and exchange rate expectations point to lower figures.
If Trump’s promise of “reciprocal tariffs” is implemented, the effective tariff rate could be even lower than 5 percent, although this depends on whether the agricultural sector is also subject to tariffs. Some reports also suggest that non-tariff barriers may be completely ignored.
According to Deutsche Bank, it is very difficult to determine market expectations precisely. But if the tariff rate ultimately falls between 5 and 7.5 percent, markets are likely to react with more confidence. Otherwise, more volatility and turbulence in financial markets are expected.
At the beginning of the year, markets were in a positive and optimistic mood. The Republican victory in the election, the continuation of tax breaks and the possibility of new support packages were among the factors that reinforced this optimism.
However, factors such as the high US budget deficit, the deadlock in Congress and the high inflation rate have now challenged this optimism. Meanwhile, two important support tools that were effective in the past may no longer be as effective:
1. During Trump’s first term, the stock market was of particular importance to him. Even during the COVID-19 crisis, he constantly talked about the stock market and considered it part of his successes.
The term “Put Trump” meant that even if he made harsh statements, he ultimately acted in the market’s favor.
2. But now, in Trump’s second administration, he talks about “short-term pain” and “economic detoxification.” Tariff threats, reduced investment and policy uncertainty have caused the S&P 500 to fall 10% since February. Trump still considers the market important, but he is no longer as staunchly supportive of it as he used to be.
In addition, this week will include the release of a series of key economic data. Including:
• Tuesday: ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS.
• Wednesday: ADP Private Employment Report
•Thursday: ISM services index and weekly jobless claims.
One of the big risks to the markets is that economic data remains weak while the ISM price sub-indices rise. Such a situation could signal a deflationary tailwind. In such a situation, even if the Federal Reserve moves to lower interest rates, it will still be difficult for the stock market to grow.