US2000USD trade ideas
RUT Triangle Pattern for a pending Wave (C) pullback The same predicament exist in the RUT as the SPX. RUT is forming a triangle pattern that could unfold into wave (C) corrective wave lower. The immediate pullback should take us back into 1250 downside target facing significant resistance ahead at 1542. One more push down into 1250 before we close out our bearish biased butterfly spreads.
RUT, multiple patterns point to continuation of Bearish trendThere is so much happening in over the last couple weeks that is shifting the overall trend to bearish with the RUT it's hard not to be short on it.
Just to get a couple of things out of the way:
It is damn near silly to think the RUT exists in a vacuum -- it is heavily led by the greater market trends and most especially the SPX. It almost never takes an opposite trend, but it _does_ tend to either minimize or maximize the moves, especially intraday
This could go either way, we are, on paper, in a bull market trend (for the greater SPX-based market), but just barel. RUT is technically in bear. A major development good or bad would easily reverse sentiment one way of the other and price could travel drastically
While I am overall bearish, I try to look at the flip side as well, so I can easier tell the difference between reversals and pullbacks in a larger upward move.
I've been watching this structure develop over the last week or so, and so I am growing in confidence in it.
Monday may be the final confirmation. The Alamo is the convergence of the 3000 SPX line, 200MAs, The lows of the week, and lastly, the breakout zone of the continuation symmetric triangle we find ourselves just barely broken out of in the last few hours on Friday.
Frankly, I think the battle will truly happen in SPY/SPX and RUT will follow.
It should also not be missed that RUT literally is changing composition on Monday. There is much more detailed analysis available out there on that subject, but generally speaking: the small-cap index is getting more mid/larger small caps and much more tech/healthcare heavy. How this change pans out in the longer run, who knows -- but it should be a pretty big shakeup for the individual stocks entering or exiting the index.
RUT End Of Week Evaluation*** Comments prior to evaluation summary ***
Expecting a break below the consolidation range this week if the weakness continues to enter the index. 1340 - 1348 for a target zone.
If the close of the week fails to return above 1343.6 the bearish disposition can return.
The week of 8 Jun was an envelope bar - signalling for a price break-down toward 1315 - 1271 of which the 1293.5 is the mean of this range.
So we are now looking at a price zone with three projections signal aiming at it.
Trend Analysis:
The current trend is defined by the last price and it's relationship to specific moving averages.
Check the MA strategy for more specific suggestions.
Weekly: The relationship to the primary trend MA is bearish. The price in relationship to the other averages suggest close current positions.
Price Action:
Weekly: The average price range currently is 131 points/ticks/pips. Prices are currently .04x the normal trading range. Prices are trading within the mean range for activity. This generally indicates a consolidation of strength/indecision in the market regarding direction.
Prices are currently caught in consolidation between 1343.60 and 1537.62.
While in consolidation the trade range may decrease to 80.958 points/ticks/pips.
Standard Deviation
Weekly: Standard deviation suggests a range from 1194.64 to 1532.92 for the following week.
Calculated Price Strength:
The strength of the trend in conjunction with specific averages
Weekly: Trend strength suggests a trade range of 1297.82 to 1459.74 for the following week.
Price Projection:
The price action has generated a projection signal for the underlying.
Weekly: Price currently displays (if strength and attitude continue) a desire to move toward 1340.828
If strength and attitude continue, it could take between 1 to 2 trade periods (weeks) to reach the projection.
Indicators Summary.
A collection of technical indicators whose directional attitude has been summarized.
Weekly: Out of the cumulative indicators monitored, 50.00% are bullish, 0.00% are bearish, 50.00% are neutral
The CCI indicator trading strategy suggest the following:
Weekly: Neutral price action - shorts closed.
Confirmation Signal
6 indicators combined to confirm entry/exit.
Weekly Bearish - Close/Cover directional trades, profit taking/trend switch in process.
Russell 2000 - Could we get one more high?6/27/20. SPX and Nasdaq are dominated by a handful of large caps stocks and they maybe unreliable.
Russell2000 is made of mid cap 2000 companies and may represent better picture.
White path = we topped in cycle 1 and in the process of trace to cycle 2
Yellow path = we go up for one more higher high but that may present A=C setting up for potential larger move back down to test the March low.
Know your parameters. Risk vs Reward.
RUT Position Update: (+4%)
Partial profit taken, as the Russell 2000 approaches the daily rishing-trendline. Well done to all that took this trade with me!
Russell 2k Short re-Entry $1,483Will more than return short shares borrowed with premium and spread covered at exit price, with the intention of re-entering short if we can see a better upside short price, specifically $1,483.
RUT End Of Week Evaluation*** Comments prior to evaluation summary ***
RUT generated new low in the consolidation range this week.
An enveloping bar formed in the market on Friday (daily chart). This can have an impact coming into the new week. The envelope indicated a desire to move toward 1405 - 1397 which matches the week charts skipping target low of 1389 So I would accept this is a double confirmation of potential low for next week. As always this is dependent on if the strength and attitude continue.
There is also a minor measurable event which has a suggestion of 1344 for the coming week.
RSI has weakened by 6.3% on the 14 day and 16.1% on the 5 day. ** If you use RSI to help measure 'Strength' as it was designed for.
Trend Analysis:
The current trend is defined by the last price and it's relationship to specific moving averages.
Check the MA strategy for more specific suggestions.
Weekly: The relationship to the primary trend MA is bullish. The price in relationship to the other averages suggest long positions
Price Action:
Weekly: The average price range currently is 129.76 points/ticks/pips. Prices are currently .28x the normal trading range. Prices are trading within the mean range for activity. This generally indicates a consolidation of strength/indecision in the market regarding direction.
Prices are currently caught in consolidation between 1343.60 and 1537.62.
While in consolidation the trade range may decrease to 79.722 points/ticks/pips.
Standard Deviation
Weekly: Standard deviation suggests a range from 1225.18 to 1612.09 for the following week.
Calculated Price Strength:
The strength of the trend in conjunction with specific averages
Weekly: Trend strength suggests a trade range of 1338.17 to 1498.55 for the following week.
Price Projection:
The price action has generated a projection signal for the underlying.
Weekly: Price currently displays (if strength and attitude continue) a desire to move toward 1389
If strength and attitude continue, it could take between 1 to 2 trade periods (weeks) to reach the projection.
Indicators Summary.
A collection of technical indicators whose directional attitude has been summarized.
Weekly: Out of the cumulative indicators monitored, 60.00% are bullish, 0.00% are bearish, 40.00% are neutral
The CCI indicator trading strategy suggest the following:
Weekly: Neutral price action - shorts closed.
Confirmation Signal
6 indicators combined to confirm entry/exit.
Weekly Bullish - Open directional trades
Russell 2000 Head & Shoulder Pattern CompletedRUT Short Position Update: 13:59:23 (UTC) Thu Jun 18, 2020
Crazy analysis on russell. dont respect it or listen to this.This is not all inclusive. I know nothing. just observations.
RUT Short Position Update: Thu Jun 18, 2020RUT Short Position Update: Thu Jun 18, 2020
13:31:57 (UTC)
Thu Jun 18, 2020
RUT Position Update from Yesterday Update from yesterday's entry. This trade is now risk-free, with stoploss moved to breakeven. provided here
That down candle a week ago is still "bringing back memories"?Equities tried rallying above it but have so far failed. Note how Russell futs trade stuck below the highs of that big candle last Thursday. Similar is to be seen in S&P. Watch the lower part of the channel for support in case we turn lower.
Upside, watch recent highs as resistance.
RUT corrective pullback [WAVE C]On the minor time frame, wave (C) corrective is still in progress with the resistance level at about 1540 targeting the 1300 downside target. We have seen quite a sharp decline in higher degree into wave i. 1542 resistance must hold to keep this corrective pattern alive.
$RUT H&S (Bearish Reversal)It's worth remembering that all the economic data coming out (retail sales, payrolls, etc.) showing month-on-month rate of change looks pretty different on a year-on-year basis.
Russell futs - up 9.5% from yesterday low print......the "perfect" trend channel continues holding, but we are approaching important levels in this violent bounce. 200 day moving average slightly higher. Watch the 1470 ish area carefully.
Russell 2k Target Hit +6.99% (Update on Position)Great gain, no drawdown. Well done to all that took this trade with me.
