Weekly Analyses : Uptrend Continuations with bearish corrections18/08/24 - 23/08/24
Welcome to another weekly analyses idea.
US30 is an historically bullish instrument defined by HLs and HHs. On the daily TF a HL was signalled on Aug 15 at 38,402 after which price has been bullish signalling a Daily LH as the biggest TF with a type of High.
This Daily LH currently sits at the 78.6% retracment level which is often defined as a key correction zone. However, just because price is currently there does not guarantee that it will respect it. Here are a couple reasons which tells me the Daily LH will not respect the 78.6% retracement:
1. On the 4H TF, the previous week ended with a bullish engulfing candle which can be an indicator price will continue bullish at least for the next short term before any correction.
2. Bullish signs On the Daily TF
- The Daily Candle on Friday Aug 16th closed with a long lower wick indicating rejection from a level
of support. This rejection is usually an indicator that the next daily candle will also close
bullish.
- Once price resumes into its uptrend, it will recover the strong bearish candles incurred
during the sell period. The strong bearish candle formed on Aug 1st will need to be
recovered with bullish candles up to the opening of the daily bearish candle.
Therefore, I expect price to continue bullish at least for the short term.
Longterm objective: Ultimate TP - Daily HH at 41,222.2.
Short term objective: Daily LH TP - 41,131.6 just above the 88.0% retracement zone.
Once price gets to 41,131.6 above the 88.0% retracement zone I do expect some retracement on the 4H TF. Here is my reasoning why:
On the 23H TF, I have drawn a bearish trend line in the colour red which represents the point at which price has previously rejected off the line. The first rejection occurred on July 17 signalling at 23H HH, then on July 30th signalling a 23H LH. Using this trajectory I expect the third rejection to occur on the line at 41,131.6. As for how far this rejection or correction will go... that remains to be seen.
Don't hesitate to reach out to me with any questions about my analyses.
