Technical bear wedge on the Treasury NoteThe 10 year T-Note is still experience more downside pressure as investors begin to price in the odds of 25 or 50 basis hike for the upcoming FED meeting in March. The technical bear wedge on the chart has continue to respect the recent down trend line while seller aim for the key 128.10 area. A break to the downside would see the next target at 127.75 or at 2% yield. If the market does a u-turn, keep an eye on that down trend line breakout for a move to the upside.
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USB10YUSD trade ideas
Treasury Note Still Looking WeakWe pointed this out yesterday on the chart for the treasury note as there was a clear down trend resistance being formed in the price action. We still are confined to that same technical setup with the volatility tightening up leading into Fridays NFP report. The levels to watch out for be 128.10 and the key support at 127.75 to the downside and on the upside, keep an eye that down trend line for signs of bulls coming back into this market.
Market Sentiment is found in the 10 Year Treasury Note The 10 year treasury note is on a technical descending bear wedge with a directing down trendline acting as a pivot point. As of now, we can see the treasury market breaking higher on the expectation of weaker NFP numbers, however, the treasury market is "smart money" and may often overlook short term data in favor at medium to long term fundamentals. Its going to be hard to predict which way this t-note will trade but keep an eye on the price action and that technical pattern. A breakout either way will cause a sentiment shift in the markets and have a spillover effect into other asset classes.
10 year treasury yield looking for direction from ISMThe treasury markets has continue to rally from yesterdays risk on bid across all markets. No meaning levels were tested in the previous trading sessions, leaving us with weekly high/low levels has significant points of reference for todays trading session. After that, we have resistance at 129.65 to the upside and and 127.80 to the downside. Bond market is now looking at income economic data for directional bias so keep an eye on the ISM data being released today.
Correction On Treasury Bonds Can Be Supportive For GoldHello traders!
Today we will talk about 10Y US Notes (treasury bonds) and its correlation with gold.
Well, as you may already know, treasury bonds and gold are in tight positive correlation and gold is currently down mainly because of 10Y US Notes.
However, a decline looks corrective as we see 10Y US Notes trading in an A-B-C decline, while gold is in a more complex W-X-Y correction, but support may not be far away. While 10Y US Notes can be looking for a support around 132 level, gold may face strong support around 1700 level.
Just please keep in mind that we need confirmations, so only if we see strong and impulsive bounce from projected support zone, only then bulls could be back in the game.
All the best and trade well!
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Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
T-note short with target 134 or even 130T-note finished (or is about to finish) a run up to 139. This last leg up is a Wave B, once this leg is finished we can expect a big decline to 134 (previous wave A) or even 130 (previous wave 4).
The reasoning behind the expectation that the current uptrend is about this finish is based on RSI (does not get above 65), multitimeframe analysis (see weekly chart) and CFG (cardwell's work).
US 10Y T-Notes - One more push higher possible - Good R/R !Looks like wave ((iv)) found support at the expected zone marked by the 100, 200 EMAs and the 38.2 Fib level.
So the chance for a continuation higher are increasing.
Buy now with a stop at 137.1 is not a bad idea as R/R is pretty good.
^Previous post :
A barometer of Investor Confidence - Treasury bondA treasury bond is a certificate representing a loan to the federal government that matures in more than 10 years.
Since they are backed by the U.S. government, they are seen as a safe investment, particularly relative to stocks and other securities.
Treasury bond prices and yields move in opposite directions—falling prices boost yields and rising prices lower yields.
The 10-year yield is used as a proxy for mortgage rates, and other measures; it's also seen as a sign of investor sentiment about the economy.
A rising yield indicates falling rates and falling demand for Treasury bonds, which means investors would rather put their money in higher risk, higher reward investments; a falling yield suggests the opposite . Source : Investopedia.com
Conversely, this means that global stock market is still in for a bull run. If this inverse relationship between bond and equities hold as shown on chart, then as retail investors, is it not clear where we should park our funds? Or are we too scared to enter the market because of some bears spreading rumours of recession, inflation, stagflation ,etc ?
If you study the chart closely, you would notice in each LH , there are doji candles which means a trend reversal from long to short. Candlestick patterns have been studied in Japan for more than 400 years with a rich history and receive world wide recognition for its application.
The one thing I like most is it takes away human biasness, judgement and emotions away from the analysis and force oneself squarely to look at the price action. Everything that is happening and would happen are already factor into the candlestick. In short, it reflects the investors sentiment - greed, fear, anticipation, worry, euphoria, etc. Like a see-saw, one side has to be heavier to weigh down the other side. Sometimes, is the buy side and others the sell side.
For now, the sell side seems heavier and thus leading the price to go south.
"T-Note: last correction before the down move" by ThinkingAntsOkDaily Chart Explanation:
- Price was on an Ascending Channel and broke it.
- Now, it is developing a Bearish Corrective Structure.
- If price breaks it, it has potential to move down towards the Middle Support Zone first and, then, continue towards the Primary Support Zone .
Weekly Vision:
4H Vision:
Updates coming soon!
U.S T-Note Bearish Scenario by ThinkingAntsOk4H CHART EXPLANATION:
On this timeframe, we can see how price tried to break the Top of the Ascending Channel multiple times but failed. Now, there is MACD Bearish Divergence which indicates that the trend is getting weaker. There is a middle trendline inside the channel, so, the movement may try to reach that zone, and if it is broke, then the bottom of the Ascending Channel would be next target.
MULTI TIMEFRAME ANALYSIS:
-Daily:
-Weekly:
Triangle On Treasuries Suggests Limited Upside On StocksHello traders!
Today we will talk about treasuries (10year US Notes) and stocks (S&P500).
Well, as you may already know, treasuries and stocks are more or less in negative correlation and what we have noticed that 10y US Notes can be forming a big bullish triangle, while S&P500 can be finally finishing a five-wave rally from lows.
In EW theory, triangles are usually continuation patterns, so seems like treasuries can be headed higher, which means that stocks can see limited upside, especially now when we can clearly see five waves up from lows and according to EW rules, after every five waves, a three-wave pullback follows!
That said, if we are right, then ideal scenario would be a rally into the final wave "v" on treasuries, while stocks may see a deeper a-b-c correction! So, be aware of a potential sell-off and risk-off mode on stocks.
Disclosure: Please be informed that information we provide is NOT a trading recommendation or investment advice. All of our work is for educational purposes only.
