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OIL trade ideas

OIL - Potential Reversal Zone at Key Fibonacci levelThe Crude Oil Futures (4H) chart highlights a potential bearish scenario as price action approaches a critical resistance area. The highlighted zone, which is a strong resistance, coincides with the 0.618 - 0.65 Fibonacci retracement levels, which are often key areas for price reversals. Additionally, the rising wedge formation signals a potential loss of bullish momentum, typically a bearish continuation or reversal pattern. The price has made several attempts to push higher, but the presence of multiple confluences, including the resistance levels around $70.50, suggests that the bullish rally might be facing exhaustion. If a reversal occurs from this zone, it could lead to a significant drop, potentially targeting the $66.50 region or even lower, aligning with previous structural supports and liquidity zones. Traders should monitor for bearish confirmations, such as a strong rejection candle, a break of the rising wedge structure, or increased selling volume. Key levels to watch: - Resistance Zone: $70.50 - $71.00 (Fib 0.618-0.65 and strong resistance) - Support Targets: $68.00 and $66.50 This setup requires patience and confirmation before taking action. Always trade with proper risk management!
MARKETSCOM:OILShort
by Louigi_24
13
Oil head and shoulder ( must read caption)This chart shows a Head and Shoulders pattern on a Crude Oil Futures (4H) timeframe, which is a bearish reversal signal. Key Points: 1. Pattern Formation: The Left Shoulder, Head, and Right Shoulder are clearly marked. A resistance level is identified around $68.00, where the price previously failed to break higher. 2. Breakdown Confirmation: Price has broken the neckline (support level), confirming the bearish pattern. The breakdown suggests further downside movement. 3. Price Targets: First target: $64.84 (-2.58%) Second target: $63.66 (-1.89%) Final target: $63.00 (-1.93%) Trading Strategy: Bearish Bias: Traders may look for short opportunities below the neckline. Stop Loss: Above the right shoulder (~$68.00) to limit risk. Take Profit: Scaling out near $64.84, $63.66, and $63.00. This setup aligns with technical analysis principles, indicating a likely continuation of the downtrend. However, traders should monitor volume and external factors like oil supply data and geopolitical events for confirmation.
MARKETSCOM:OILLong
by Forex_ViP_Signalss
2
US-OIL Long Buy due to lower SupportHello Traders In This Chart XTIUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET today XTIUSD analysis 👆 🟢This Chart includes_ (XTIUSD market update) 🟢What is The Next Opportunity on XTIUSD Market 🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
MARKETSCOM:OILLong
by ForexMasters2000
So far, so good... WTI oil price continues to please the bears. So far, the our stance is unchanged, we remain somewhat bearish on the price of MARKETSCOM:OIL in the near-term. That said, certain criteria still need to be met for us to get comfortable with further declines, especially from the technical side. Let's dig in! TVC:USOIL Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
MARKETSCOM:OIL
by Marketscom
4-hr Oil: Dropping Prices on Fear From Slowed Growth, Tariffs Oil continues its downward trajectory, despite occasional pullbacks. The overall trend remains bearish, reinforced by multiple Death Cross patterns, a classic sell signal indicating further weakness. Adding to this bearish outlook, the critical 38% Fibonacci resistance held firm, and after a retest, prices resumed their decline. Given these factors, we are placing a market sell order to capitalize on further downside movement. Our profit target is set at $67, a significant support level from recent price action. To mitigate risk in case of a temporary rebound, we are positioning our stop-loss above $71.80, which aligns with the 61% Fibonacci retracement—historically a strong resistance zone. By entering at these levels, we align our trade with prevailing bearish momentum while maintaining a well-defined risk management strategy. This approach enhances our risk-to-reward ratio, ensuring we capitalize on the ongoing downtrend while protecting against potential reversals.
MARKETSCOM:OILShort
by Trendsharks
Oil and Fuel Markets: Inventories, Imports, Supply ConstraintsCrude Oil Inventories Rise as Imports Decline: What It Means for Prices Inventory Build and Supply Dynamics. U.S. crude oil PYTH:WTI3! inventories increased by 4.6 million barrels last week, bringing total commercial stockpiles to 432.5 million barrels. Despite this buildup, inventories remain 3% below the five-year seasonal average, signaling that supply constraints are still present in the market. A key driver behind this inventory rise is the sharp decline in crude oil imports, which fell by 488,000 barrels per day (bpd) over the past week. This marks a significant shift, as the U.S. has increasingly relied on domestic production and exports to balance supply. Meanwhile, crude oil exports surged by 472,000 bpd, reinforcing the trend of strong outbound shipments despite fluctuating global demand. Impact on Prices and Market Sentiment Despite rising inventories, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude prices www.tradingview.com fell to $72.05 per barrel, reflecting broader market concerns over economic slowdowns and demand uncertainty. This represents an $8.60 year-over-year decline, indicating that supply pressures alone are not enough to drive prices higher. The key question for traders is whether this inventory buildup will continue in the coming weeks. If imports remain low and exports persist at high levels, domestic supply could tighten, providing support for prices. However, if refinery demand weakens, further inventory accumulation may put additional pressure on WTI and Brent www.tradingview.com prices.   Gasoline and Diesel Market: Supply Squeeze and Demand Trends Refinery Production and Inventory Shifts. U.S. refinery throughput declined slightly, with crude oil processing falling to 15.4 million barrels per day (bpd), down 15,000 bpd for the week. Refinery utilization stood at 84.9%, reflecting seasonal maintenance and potential market shifts. Gasoline production CAPITALCOM:GASOLINE decreased to 9.2 million bpd, while distillate fuel output increased to 4.7 million bpd, suggesting stronger demand for diesel and heating fuels. However, inventories tell a different story: • Gasoline inventories fell by 0.2 million barrels, leaving stocks 1% below the five-year seasonal average. • Distillate inventories dropped sharply by 2.1 million barrels, now standing 12% below the five-year average. • Propane inventories declined by 3.6 million barrels, though they remain stable compared to last year. Demand Trends and Pricing Impacts Over the past four weeks, total petroleum demand increased by 3.7% year-over-year, reaching 20.4 million bpd. Notably, gasoline consumption edged up 0.4% to 8.4 million bpd, while distillate demand surged by 14.2% to 4.3 million bpd, reflecting strong industrial and freight sector activity. Retail gasoline prices rose to $3.148 per gallon yet remain $0.121 lower than a year ago. Meanwhile, WTI crude settled at $72.05 per barrel, down $8.60 year-over-year, as broader market concerns weighed on prices.
MARKETSCOM:OIL
by igorisaev
U.S. Gasoline and Distillate Markets: Production and InventoriesThe U.S. gasoline and distillate fuel markets are seeing diverging trends, with production rising while inventories decline. According to the latest EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report , gasoline production increased to 9.3 million barrels per day (bpd), slightly above last week’s level. However, despite this rise, total gasoline inventories fell by 3.0 million barrels, bringing them 1% below the five-year seasonal average. Distillate fuel oil production, which includes diesel and heating oil, dropped to 4.5 million bpd, reflecting lower refinery output. While inventories of distillates showed a marginal increase of 100,000 barrels, they remain 11% below the five-year average, signaling a tighter supply environment. Rising Demand and Seasonal Effects Total products supplied, a proxy for demand, averaged 20.3 million bpd over the past four weeks—2.8% higher year-over-year. Within this, motor gasoline demand stood at 8.3 million bpd, up 0.9% from last year, while distillate fuel demand surged by 13.6% year-over-year, indicating strong industrial and transportation fuel usage. With the winter heating season still in effect and freight transportation activity remaining robust, diesel prices may see upward pressure, especially if refinery output does not keep pace with demand. Price Trends and Market Outlook • The national average gasoline price increased to $3.128 per gallon, up $0.046 from last week but $0.064 lower than a year ago. • The national average diesel price edged up slightly to $3.665 per gallon, though it remains $0.444 below year-ago levels. • The New York Harbor spot price for conventional gasoline rose to $2.181 per gallon, while No. 2 heating oil increased to $2.381 per gallon. Given the combination of tight distillate inventories and increased demand, diesel prices may continue to trend higher in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, gasoline prices could see moderate volatility, influenced by refinery utilization rates, crude oil price movements, and seasonal demand shifts. Investment Considerations For traders and investors, key factors to watch include: • Refinery utilization rates, which stood at 85% last week, impacting refined product supply. • Crude oil price movements, as WTI recently dropped to $71.32 per barrel, affecting refining margins. • Demand trends, particularly in the transportation and industrial sectors, which influence fuel consumption patterns. TVC:USOIL TVC:UKOIL
MARKETSCOM:OIL
by igorisaev
OIL1.4H 2.upt 3.resist/needs to reteset/ 4.inverted head and shoulder/ 5.rsi41/sto95/vol//rsi62/sto83/ 6. 7.fibext cross/ 8.fibretrac crossing / 9. 10. 11.1/2 12. 13.three white soldiers 14.reverse to sell ,retrace and buy back/ 1.2H 2.upt 3.resist 4.symmetrical exp triangle/ 5.rsi41/sto95/vol 6. 7.fibext above 4h frame/ 8.fibretrace above/ 9 10 11.1/2 12. 13.three white soldier 14.can reverse or retrace/ 1.1h 2.upt 3.resist 4.double botton/ 5.rsi67/sto96/vol 6. 7.fibext above/ 8.fibretrace above/ 9. 10. 11.1/2 12. 13.three white soldiers 14.
MARKETSCOM:OILLong
by Forexnation237
4-hr OIL: Bears to Drive Oil Down $4There is a clear shift in the momentum in the Oil market, with the commodity dropping with nearly 10% for the past 2 weeks. The Death Cross, a classic sell signal, is indicating that sellers are indeed in control and we are lookin now at a strong downward momentum. The minor pullback from 72.40 to 74 wasn't unexpected, after all it was triggered by early sellers taking profit, which is healthy for the broader trend. This correction was also very short lived, as it only tested the immediate resistance at 23% Fibonacci retracement. Besides the technical set up, looking at the broader market we see rising demand for risky assets such as stocks, which further supports the hypothesis speculators are shifting from Oil to equities. This is why we prefer to enter a sell trade with a target $4 below the current price.
MARKETSCOM:OILShort
by Trendsharks
Brent and WTI: Quarterly OutlookBy Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst At the end of January 2025, Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices have shown significant movements in the global energy market. Brent is trading around $77.47 per barrel, while WTI stands at $73.81. Economic Analysis Several economic factors are influencing the current dynamics of oil prices: 1. economic data from China: the recent contraction in Chinese manufacturing activity has raised concerns about a possible decline in demand for crude oil, given that China is the world's largest importer. 2. U.S. Trade Policies: The Trump administration has announced the imposition of 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico, and is considering similar measures for China. These actions could affect oil imports, as Canada and Mexico are key suppliers to the United States. 3. Production Efficiency: Oilfield services companies in the U.S. face a decrease in demand for hydraulic fracturing and increased production efficiency, which has led to a reduction in the number of active rigs and could influence future crude oil supply. 4. U.S. Inventory Expectations: U.S. crude oil inventories have shown an increase in recent weeks, indicating lower consumption or an increase in production. According to the latest reports from the Energy Information Administration (EIA), stockpiles have increased by approximately 3.5 million barrels, which could put downward pressure on prices in the short term. If this trend continues, it could reinforce bearish expectations for Brent and WTI. Technical Analysis From a technical perspective, in the short term Brent (Ticker AT: Brent) , after reaching lows since January 9, has shown a slight recovery. Immediate resistance is around $80, a level that, if overcome, could open the way for further gains. However, the inability to overcome this barrier could result in a consolidation or pullback to previous supports. The Brent price has been moving in a very high volatility range since March 18, 2023 to date with its mid-zone being $84 - $80.74 indicated by the checkpoint (POC). Looking at the chart it has pierced its uptrend on August 8, 2024, to fall to a new support zone at lows of $68.46. Looking at the 3 consecutive touches below the $95.12 high to the current price zone, it does not appear to be evolving in a bullish direction from the March and June 2022 highs. The commodity trend has been moving downward since then. Since July 29, 2024 there has been a bearish crossover of averages reversing the trend of the averages. At the moment since January 3 of this year there has been a crossover in the opposite direction and currently the 50-average has overtaken the 200-average, but the 100-average has still lagged behind. We will have to watch to see if the price pierces the indicated checkpoint again, if this is the case as a new checkpoint the next two ceilings around $88 and $91.56. In a more than likely bearish scenario, if the strong price of $70.08 is pierced it will mean that industrial production has increased to a large extent. In the case of WTI (Ticker AT:Lcrude) it has reached a key trend line around $72.50, suggesting a possible support point. Price's ability to hold above this level could indicate a continuation of the uptrend, while a break below could signal a deeper correction. The WTI price has been moving $79 and the $72.40 in the last period of the year, it has been similar to brent with a similar bearish tone to its European counterpart. The strong support zone is found at lows of $63.94 and $68.37. Its current average zone is around $78.88 and $72.50. Its current control point (POC) is at $72.30, so it will be necessary to observe if, despite the conflict between Donald Trump and OPEC in its lack of productivity, the production increase forecasts are fulfilled at least on the US side. If we observe the bearish context and this is fulfilled, the price could retake the $60 area, although this is also unlikely due to OPEC's disinterest in listening to an American government with a “Drill baby Drill” anthem that only Canada and in particular Alberta, its main supplier, listens to. Future Outlook Projections for 2025 indicate a downward trend in oil prices, with an expected average of $73 per barrel for Brent and an average of $71.50 for West Texas. This forecast is based on the anticipation of an increase in global inventories and a moderation in demand. In summary, the Brent and WTI crude oil market is being shaped by a combination of technical and economic factors. Investors should closely monitor production trends, trade policies and global economic indicators to make informed decisions in this volatile environment. ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:LCRUDEShort
by ActivTrades
Does WTI Oil have enough energy to travel back up?After an unsuccessful breakout in mid-January, MARKETSCOM:OIL made its move back down. That said, it's currently finding support near the 200-day EMA. On one hand, it may seem that this is the place for a potential rebound, however, the bulls should not get their hopes up, because there some indication for a possible drift further south. Take a look at the video idea. TVC:USOIL RISK DISCLAIMER 74.2% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
MARKETSCOM:OIL
by Marketscom
4-hr CRUDE OIL: Retesting $71.50, before the Up Trend ExtendsOver the past month, oil prices have surged by $8, marking an impressive 15% return in less than 20 business days. The commodity is clearly in an upward trend, with buyers maintaining strong control. This bullish momentum is further validated by two Golden Cross patterns, a classic buy signal. However, since Friday, a decline in buying volume suggests potential conditions for a correction. Early buyers might be taking profits, increasing supply and potentially triggering a broader pullback. We anticipate the price may correct to $71.50, a swing high from mid-December, which coincides with the crucial 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. If this support holds, the broader uptrend could resume. Buyers looking for a better risk-to-reward ratio might wait for this correction before entering the market.
MARKETSCOM:OILLong
by Trendsharks
Oil Market Outlook for 2025: Balancing Supply and DemandThe oil market in 2025 faces a challenging equilibrium between supply and demand, heavily influenced by OPEC+ strategies. Building on the success of their 2024 production cuts, OPEC+ is expected to continue regulating output to maintain market stability. If no significant economic or geopolitical disruptions occur, oil prices are projected to remain within the $70–80 per barrel range, a level that benefits key market players. However, slower economic growth in China poses a potential downside risk to global demand. China's current policies, including procuring discounted oil from Iran and Russia, help mitigate domestic economic pressures and limit their impact on global prices. In the United States, the long-term feasibility of achieving production targets set by the Trump administration appears realistic. With infrastructure already supporting output at 14.5 million barrels per day, further expansion will require significant investment in pipelines and other facilities. Increased U.S. production is likely to add downward pressure on oil prices, but it’s unlikely to push them below $60 per barrel. Strategic interests, including budgetary allocations for the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, position the $60–65 range as a critical floor. A price range of $70–75 per barrel is deemed optimal for the U.S., enabling economic growth and bolstering tax revenues to support the budget. This dynamic interplay of global strategies and regional policies will shape the oil market's trajectory, demanding vigilance from stakeholders to navigate the evolving landscape. TVC:USOIL SSE:000300
MARKETSCOM:OIL
by igorisaev
1
Continued bearishness in crude oil pricesOn December 17, 2024, oil prices showed a slight stabilization following the drop in U.S. crude inventories and the Federal Reserve's (Fed) interest rate cut. However, gains were limited by expectations that the Fed will slow the pace of cuts in the coming months. Brent crude oil futures rose 20 cents, closing at $73.39 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 50 cents, reaching $70.58. Despite these increases, gains moderated after market close. The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a drop in crude oil and distillate inventories, while gasoline inventories increased in the week ending December 13. In addition, total product supply, a key indicator of demand, grew to 20.8 million barrels per day, reflecting an increase of 662,000 barrels from the previous week. Despite the partial optimism around demand, crude oil prices fell briefly following the Fed's announcement to cut interest rates, although the pace of these cuts is expected to slow. The Fed projects only two additional rate cuts through the end of 2025, which could boost oil demand, but also dampen near-term expectations. On technical analysis, crude oil continues to lose value, with the price looking for the $68 area since the start of the European session. The POC mid-zone is around $70.20, and the RSI is highly oversold at 30%. The crossover of the 200-average over the 100-average reinforces the prospect of a bearish continuation, as anticipated in previous weeks. Ion Jauregui - ActivTrades Analyst ******************************************************************************************* The information provided does not constitute investment research. The material has not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and such should be considered a marketing communication. All information has been prepared by ActivTrades ("AT"). The information does not contain a record of AT's prices, or an offer of or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument. No representation or warranty is given as to the accuracy or completeness of this information. Any material provided does not have regard to the specific investment objective and financial situation of any person who may receive it. Past performance is not reliable indicator of future performance. AT provides an execution-only service. Consequently, any person acing on the information provided does so at their own risk.
ACTIVTRADES:LCRUDEShort
by ActivTrades
Crude Oil: Watch for Key Support Levels Next WeekRecent Performance: Crude oil has been navigating a downtrend influenced by geopolitical tensions, oversupply issues, and weak demand signals. As of late, concerns about peaking U.S. shale production have introduced volatility, with prices currently facing resistance around the $68 mark and critical support established at approximately $67. - Key Insights: For those considering trading crude oil, paying close attention to the established support ($66.63) and resistance levels ($68.14) will be key for short-term strategies. Additionally, the contrasting dynamics of rising demand in India against softer demand in China may present unique trading opportunities. The current bearish sentiment creates potential for a market rebound if conditions shift favorably. - Expert Analysis: Analysts express caution regarding the continued bearish commercial net positions. However, a pivot in market conditions could lead to increased prices if the assumption about U.S. shale production is validated. The need to monitor geopolitical developments remains paramount as these could dramatically sway market psychology and pricing. - Price Targets: Next week, for traders looking at potential long positions, ideal target levels appear to be: T1: $69.7, T2: $70.5. It is essential that stop levels are adhered to, with: S1: $66.63, S2: $66.05. If considering short positions, one needs to be cautious as the thresholds are close at play. - News Impact: The global landscape remains heavily influenced by geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, compounded by market news surrounding the differing recovery rates between the Indian and Chinese economies. Such dynamics will likely affect both short and long-term investment strategies within the crude oil sector. Investors should remain vigilant of these developments to better navigate their trading decisions in the upcoming week.
MARKETSCOM:OILLong
by CrowdWisdomTrading
1