OILUSD trade ideas
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Detailed Support and Resistance Analysis
Here is my latest structure analysis and important key levels
to pay close attention to on WTI Crude Oil.
Vertical Structures
Vertical Resistance 1: Falling Trend Line
Horizontal Structures
Resistance 1: 71.46 - 71.90 area
Resistance 2: 73.80 - 74.30 area
Resistance 3: 76.00 - 77.60 area
Resistance 4: 79.60 - 80.16 area
Support 1: 63.80 - 65.70 area
Consider these structures for pullback/breakout trading.
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Crude's messageCrude oil was weaker in early trade this morning, giving back a proportion of yesterday’s gains. Oil prices have recovered somewhat over the past week. Last Tuesday front-month WTI fell below $65 to hit its lowest level since May 2023. Since then prices have bounced, with WTI adding around 7.5% from last week’s low to yesterday’s high. But this must be put into perspective as crude lost 23% between early July and last week’s low. Crude was exceptionally oversold ahead of this rally, and even with the latest pick-up, it remains oversold. But even with the bullish trigger of supply disruptions due to Hurricane Francine, and the prospect of lower interest rates from the US Federal Reserve, crude hasn’t bounced sharply enough to set off a serious bout of short-covering which should have driven prices much higher. Instead, gains have been relatively slow and measured, which could suggest that this is simply a run-of-the-mill correction ahead of another lurch lower. If so, then oil is sending the wider market an important message: it’s saying that we should expect a global economic slowdown. If that’s the case, then it would be a strong argument in favour of a 50 basis point cut after tomorrow’s FOMC meeting.
Oil prices rose slightly on Monday
Oil prices rose slightly on Monday, with U.S. crude oil prices trading around the $68 price area. Gains were limited by weak Chinese economic data and ongoing demand concerns. Despite easing supply disruptions as Gulf of Mexico oil production resumed after Hurricane Francine, about 20% of oil and 28% of natural gas production remain offline. The market is focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with traders expecting a rate cut, possibly 50 basis points, which could affect oil demand. Chinese industrial output and fuel demand have slowed, increasing bearish sentiment in the oil market. Speculators are also taking short positions in Brent crude as demand fears grow.
On the technical side, the price is testing the support of the 161.8% of the daily Fibonacci retracement level after finding sufficient support on the lower band of the Bollinger bands. The faster moving average (50-days) is trading below the slower (100-days) moving average validating the overall bearish trend in the market while the Stochastic is near the extremely oversold level hinting that there might be a bullish correction in the coming sessions. If this becomes reality then the first area of possible resistance might be seen around the $72 price area which consists of the area just below the 78.6% of the daily Fibonacci retracement as well as the area of price reaction in early and late August.
Oil Moving as anticipated from post of Jan 2023 long term visionNot financial advice.
I posted a chart I will attach here where I said we was doing an ABC correction on the monthly where A was 69
B would be 90-94
And C could be in low 50's and even under 50 as low as 34.00
Applying the 45° angle we see it intercedes at the 54.00 level...
Of note:
Can clearly see we are trending bearish on Stoch RSI as it keeps reading lower and lower.
Again this was a vision I saw way back in Jan 1st so please press play on the previous chart to see how it's played out
Patience is always key
#PIK
TLAW
#Think Like A Whale
British inflation rate, Fed interest rate decision, BoE interestHighlights this week: British inflation rate, Fed interest rate decision, BoE interest rate, Japanese inflation, BoJ interest rate
Wednesday:
UK inflation rate at 06:00 AM GMT. The consensus is for a pause at the current level of 2.2%. If the publication comes out higher than expected then the pound might find some short-term support against its pairs. On the other hand, if the figure is lower than expected it could influence a more dovish stance from the Bank of England on their next meeting.
Fed interest rate decision at 18:00 GMT is broadly expected to be the first rate cut since the beginning of the ticketing by the central bank. According to the Fedwatch tool there are 41% chance of a 0.25% cut and 59% of a 0.50% cut. Participants are focusing closely on what the comments in the subsequent press conference will be in an effort to get some hints as to the future direction of monetary policy.
Thursday:
The Bank of England decides on their interest rate at 11:00 PM GMT. The general expectation is that the central bank will hold their rate stable at 5% but in the event that we witness another rate cut it could put some pressure to the quid in many of its pairs, especially against the US dollar whereas in the unlikely event of a hike it might give some support on the British pound in the aftermath of the release.
Japanese inflation rate at 23:30 GMT. The expectations for the month of August is that the rate could go up to 3% from the previous 2.8%. This might be somewhat bullish news to the market participants trading the yen.
Friday:
Bank of Japan Interest rate decision at 04:00 AM GMT. The market consensus is that the rates will remain static at 0.25% while in the unlikely scenario of any shift away from this figure will most certainly create volatility on the yen pairs.
USOIL, dailyOil prices rose slightly on Monday, with U.S. crude oil prices trading around the $68 price area. Gains were limited by weak Chinese economic data and ongoing demand concerns. Despite easing supply disruptions as Gulf of Mexico oil production resumed after Hurricane Francine, about 20% of oil and 28% of natural gas production remain offline. The market is focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve's interest rate decision, with traders expecting a rate cut, possibly 50 basis points, which could affect oil demand. Chinese industrial output and fuel demand have slowed, increasing bearish sentiment in the oil market. Speculators are also taking short positions in Brent crude as demand fears grow.
On the technical side, the price is testing the support of the 161.8% of the daily Fibonacci retracement level after finding sufficient support on the lower band of the Bollinger bands. The faster moving average (50-days) is trading below the slower (100-days) moving average validating the overall bearish trend in the market while the Stochastic is near the extremely oversold level hinting that there might be a bullish correction in the coming sessions. If this becomes reality then the first area of possible resistance might be seen around the $72 price area which consists of the area just below the 78.6% of the daily Fibonacci retracement as well as the area of price reaction in early and late August.
Crude Oil Technical AnalysisWhen the USDWTI 4-hour chart is examined; It is observed that price movements continue in a downward trend. As long as the Crude Oil price cannot exceed the level of 71.68, it is evaluated that in price movements below the level of 70.11, it can break the level of 68.61 and retreat to the level of 65.72.
m15 Entry Can Stand H1 200ma TP 1.5 Ratio firstm15 Entry Can Stand H1 200ma TP 1.5 Ratio first
H4 Us Session making m15 Entry Hard to Destroy US low.
Long trade
Trade Pair: WTICOUSDT
Session: Transitioning from Tokyo to London PM session
Time: Thursday, 1:00 PM (NY time)
Entry Point: 68.616
Take Profit Level: 75.050 (9.38%)
Stop Loss Level: 67.951(0.97%)
Risk-Reward Ratio (RR): 9.68
Trade idea - USOIL Long4H
Corrective approach towards entry zone.
-27 Fibonacci completion aligning with entry zone.
= Buy limit.
1.5% risk.
USOIL: Bullish Outlook with Probability-Based EntriesMy overall bias on USOIL remains bullish, supported by several key fundamentals:
1. OPEC+ production cuts continuing to tighten supply
2. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East raising concerns about potential supply disruptions
3. Improving economic outlook in China, potentially boosting oil demand
4. Seasonal increase in oil consumption as we approach summer driving season
I'm utilizing probabilities to position myself into longs on USOIL.
By combining this probability-based method with my bullish bias, I aim to enter USOIL longs at optimal points with favorable risk-reward profiles.
Feel free to let me know if you need any further adjustments!
12M:
2W:
2H:
Wishing you a great trading week!
US OIL / WTI Bullish Money Heist Plan on Long SideHola ola My Dear,
Robbers / Money Makers & Losers,
This is our master plan to Heist US OIL / WTI based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Attention for Scalpers : If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money.
Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money.
Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low
Stop Loss : Recent Swing Low using 1H timeframe
Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style.
Stay tuned with me and see you again with another Heist Plan.....
US OIL / WTI Bullish Money Heist Plan on Long SideHola ola My Dear,
Robbers / Money Makers & Losers,
This is our master plan to Heist US OIL / WTI based on Thief Trading style Technical Analysis.. kindly please follow the plan I have mentioned in the chart focus on Long entry. Our target is Red Zone that is High risk Dangerous level, market is overbought / Consolidation / Trend Reversal at the level Bearish Robbers / Traders gain the strength. Be safe and be careful and Be rich.
Attention for Scalpers : If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money.
Note: If you've got a lot of money you can get out right away otherwise you can join with a swing trade robbers and continue the heist plan, Use Trailing SL to protect our money.
Entry : Can be taken Anywhere, What I suggest you to Place Buy Limit Orders in 15mins Timeframe Recent / Nearest Swing Low
Stop Loss : Recent Swing Low using 30m timeframe
Warning : Fundamental Analysis comes against our robbery plan. our plan will be ruined smash the Stop Loss. Don't Enter the market at the news update.
Loot and escape on the target 🎯 Swing Traders Plz Book the partial sum of money and wait for next breakout of dynamic level / Order block, Once it is cleared we can continue our heist plan to next new target.
Support our Robbery plan we can easily make money & take money 💰💵 Follow, Like & Share with your friends and Lovers. Make our Robbery Team Very Strong Join Ur hands with US. Loot Everything in this market everyday make money easily with Thief Trading Style.
H1 Choch on 4H Green Wait 4H Closed Above Entry price.H1 Choch on 4H Green Wait 4H Closed Above Entry price.
1.5 Ration Some Correction in 1H it's will test 4H 200ma
USOIL Back to back XABCD patternUSoil has created a lower low on a daily chart. In the process, XABCD pattern gives us an indication of a bullish movement.
TP and SL are marked.
Always follow risk management.
Crude Oil Weeky key reversal bar indicator for reversal 73.70Crude oil weekly key reversal bar, made a new low closed towards high, 67.40-66.50 is 61.8% & 79.0% fib level, expecting retracement to this level for taking long position. stop loss below key reversal bar low i.e. 65.20, target: 73.70. if price breaks below the key reversal bar with increasing volume then next buying level is 64.30.
Crude Oil, Gold And SilverWhat do you mean CRUDE OIL, GOLD and SILVER can't go up higher?
For years they have been carving out higher lows.
So forget all the narratives and story lines why they can't go up higher, just observe the actual price charts!
#crudeoil #gold #silver
USOIL remains under pressure USOIL remains under pressure, with the price approaching the support-turned-resistance zone at 72.00, which coincides with the 100% Fibonacci extension level. A reversal below the 72.00 resistance could prompt a further decline and a potential retest of the 66.00 support zone. The Ichimoku cloud also shows bearish pressure, indicating the potential for a further decline.
Conversely, a break above 72.00 could prompt a further rise, with 75.00 as the next potential resistance.
Analysis by: Li Xing Gan, Financial Market Strategist at Exness
WTI Oil H4 | Pullback resistance at 50% Fibonacci retracementWTI oil (USOIL) is rising towards a pullback resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 71.80 which is a pullback resistance that aligns with the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 74.58 which is a level that sits above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and an overlap resistance.
Take profit is at 68.63 which is a pullback support.
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