OIL_CRUDE trade ideas
WTI OIL: Bearish Channel with a Potential Upside BreakoutWTI OIL: Bearish Channel with a Potential Upside Breakout
WTI CRUDE OIL continues to trade within a well-defined downward price channel , with minor breakouts failing to gain traction due to the lack of consolidation. This price action suggests that the market remains under bearish pressure, but the structure itself hints at a possible reversal.
According to classic technical analysis, prolonged movement within a descending channel often leads to an upward breakout , as selling momentum weakens and buyers step in. To confirm this bullish scenario, we need to see a strong breakout above the upper boundary of the channel , followed by price stabilization and a retest of key resistance levels.
On the other hand, if sellers maintain control and we see increased bearish momentum, oil could continue drifting lower within the channel, delaying the potential breakout.
Should closely watch volume dynamics and key resistance levels for signs of a shift in market sentiment.
CRUDE OIL - in plain and simple viewObserving crude without noise and with lens of pure price action. It's the law of physics that things cannot be compressed for too long, hence I see range break soon, with bias on upside as lot of pending liquidity is there with imp FIB levels already tested.
Market Analysis: Oil Takes a HitMarket Analysis: Oil Takes a Hit
Crude oil is showing bearish signs and might decline below $72.20.
Important Takeaways for Oil Price Analysis Today
- Crude oil prices failed to clear the $80.00 region and started a fresh decline.
- There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $73.85 on the hourly chart of XTI/USD at FXOpen.
Oil Price Technical Analysis
On the hourly chart of WTI Crude Oil at FXOpen, the price struggled to clear the $80.00 resistance zone against the US Dollar. The price started a fresh decline below the $76.35 support.
The price even dipped below the $75.00 level and the 50-hour simple moving average. The bulls are now active near the $72.20 level. A low was formed at $72.16, and the price is now consolidating losses. If there is a fresh increase, it could face resistance near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $79.44 swing high to the $72.16 low at $73.85.
There is also a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $73.85. The first major resistance is near the $75.80 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $79.44 swing high to the $72.16 low.
Any more gains might send the price toward the $76.35 level. Any more gains might call for a test of $79.45. Conversely, the price might continue to move down and revisit the $72.20 support. The next major support on the WTI crude oil chart is $70.00.
If there is a downside break, the price might decline toward $70.00. Any more losses may perhaps open the doors for a move toward the $68.50 support zone.
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WTI: Will oil return to the upward trajectory?!WTI oil is located between EMA200 and EMA50 on the 4-hour timeframe and is moving in its ascending channel. In case of a downward correction towards the demand zone, the next opportunity to buy oil with a suitable reward for risk will be provided to us. A valid breakdown of the drawn downtrend line and preservation of the channel will pave the way for oil to reach the drawn ranges.
Under the pressure of imminent sanctions planned by the Trump administration and the debts Iran now owes to China, the country has begun offloading crude oil that had been stored in Chinese warehouses for years. This oil, shipped to China between 2018 and 2019 but not officially declared in Chinese customs records, was kept in isolated, pre-designated storage facilities. With storage costs reaching hundreds of millions of dollars, Iran is now obligated to cover these expenses. So far, 5.4 million barrels of oil have been removed from a Chinese port, transported by a total of four tankers.
According to a Bloomberg report, OPEC+ is likely to maintain its current supply policy in its meeting next week. This decision contradicts the request of U.S. President Donald Trump, who has urged oil producers to increase output to lower prices and exert more economic pressure on Russia to end the war in Ukraine. Under the current plan, oil supply restrictions will remain in place for this quarter and will gradually ease starting in April.
Donald Trump plans to sign an executive order to initiate the development of a “next-generation” missile defense system in the United States. This system, modeled after Israel’s Iron Dome, is designed to protect the U.S. from ballistic missile attacks, hypersonic missiles, advanced cruise missiles, and other modern aerial threats.
According to the released information, the executive order aims to establish an advanced space-based missile defense system capable of detecting and neutralizing missiles launched toward the U.S. Conceptually, this resembles Israel’s Iron Dome, which has been used for years to intercept and destroy rockets fired from Gaza. The U.S.government has already invested billions of dollars in developing Israel’s Iron Dome, and the American military possesses its own missile defense systems.
The order describes missile attacks as a “catastrophic threat,” but no details have been provided regarding the project’s costs or timeline. Developing a comprehensive missile defense system for a country as geographically vast as the U.S. is a highly complex and costly endeavor. Additionally, the emergence of next-generation missile threats, such as hypersonic missiles that travel at extremely high speeds, presents significant technical challenges. This indicates that the project will require substantial investment and time for completion.
Trump's pressure on OPEC prompted the drop in USOIL prices.
President Trump's steadfast dedication to lowering oil prices is driving the decline in WTI prices. During the WEF in Davos, Switzerland, he made it clear that he would demand Saudi Arabia and OPEC to reduce the price of crude oil. He boldly stated that lower oil prices could potentially lead to an end to the war in Ukraine. According to CSIS, Trump's call for reduced oil prices is a positive move for consumers and businesses but it is the one that the US oil industry will regard with caution.
Failing to rise above EMA21, USOIL shows consolidation near 73.40. The price remains within the descending channel, and both EMAs have widened apart, indicating a potential continuation of the bearish momentum. If USOIL fails to breach EMA21, the price may fall further to the support at 71.50, where the channel’s lower bound coincides. Conversely, if USOIL breaches above EMA21 and the channel’s upper bound, the price could gain upward momentum to 74.50
CRUDE OIL Will Go UP! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
CRUDE OIL made a massive
10% bearish correction but
Then it hit a horizontal support
Of 72.89$ and a bullish rebound
Is already happening so we
Are bullish biased and we will
Be expecting a further move up
Buy!
Comment and subscribe to help us grow!
Check out other forecasts below too!
USOIL Maintains a Persistent Bearish BiasThe WTI barrel has experienced a loss of over 8% since mid-January, mainly because the peace agreement between Israel and Palestine has come into effect without issues, and Trump’s ongoing comments about increased production in the United States have contributed to the bearish sentiment. Both factors have led the market to expect growing supply and weak demand prospects, which has inevitably sustained bearish pressure on crude oil prices.
Lack of Clear Trend:
Recent movements have caused the barrel to accumulate a prolonged bearish correction, casting doubt on the bullish trendline established since December 2024. Now, the price faces a key support zone, which could serve as a decision point for a potential sustained bearish trend.
ADX:
The ADX line has consistently oscillated above the neutral level of 20. However, recent movements show a current downward slope, indicating a lack of clear trend in the market. If the ADX line continues to decline, the current bearish movement may struggle to break through the existing support zone.
MACD:
Both MACD lines are consistently declining, and the histogram remains below the neutral line at 0. This indicates that bearish pressure continues to dominate in the short term. However, recent histogram readings have not reached progressively lower levels, suggesting indecision in the current bearish movement, which could allow for short-term upward corrections.
Key Levels:
$72: The current support level on the chart. Oscillations below this level could further increase bearish pressure and pave the way for a more defined downward trend.
$78: The last high reached by the barrel of crude oil. Bullish oscillations that revisit this level could revive the short-term upward trend that was forming since December.
By Julian Pineda, CFA - Market Analyst
WTI breakout from downtrend channelWTI breaks out from the upper downtrend channel line with potential for more upside if it holds
CRUDE OIL WILL GROW|LONG|
✅CRUDE OIL went down to retest a horizontal support of 73.00$
Which makes me locally bullish biased
And I think that a move up
From the level is to be expected
Towards the target above at 75.00$
LONG🚀
✅Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!✅
USOIL WANT TO BUY 📢 Trading Alert: USOIL ANALYSIS 📊
📉 Support Touched: $72.70
📈 Buy Confirmed Above: $73.00
🎯 Target Levels:
Level 1: $75.30
Level 2: $78.50
Level 3: $80.00
⏳ Indicator: EMA50
⏱ Time Frame: 1H
💡 Stay vigilant and manage your risks! 🚀
WTI Oil - Potential Long Opportunity61.8 retracement after bullish run after consolidation for weeks
72.735 strong resistance turned support
4H 200 ema
If price pushes past 61.8 after bounce looking at 78.6% and then 100% and then 127.2%
USOIL LONG!!I saw an opportunity on oil price rejecting from the 15 MIN BISI and taking out the London low there's probabilities price will continue expanding higher to the NDOL, that's my take xoxo.
USOIL MARKERT ANALYSIS AND PRICE PREDICTION USOIL, is selling now, its on a journey downward to mitigate an order block at an institutional renegotiation zone. After mitigation, price will consolidate there and decision will be taken in favor of the Bull. Price Will break a "W" structure and will retrace a bit to give the Bulls a perfect Entry at 61:8% discount price. Watch out for this moves in few Days to come and go long with it when price reaches the perfect entry position.
Entry, Take Profit and stop loss are clearly marked out on the chats.
GOOD LUCK GUYS!
USOIL Market’s DNA – 21DChart , 28, 55, 89, Bars Leading the Way
Not just looking at price—But decoding time itself. Oil moves in a structured, self-repeating time cycle, and now, with the 21-day chart, 28-bar sequences, and Fibonacci cycles, we have the market’s blueprint.
This is beyond trading—this is the hidden time geometry of markets. Let’s break it down. 🧵👇
1️⃣ The 21-Day Chart: Where Time Becomes Visible
📅 The 21-day timeframe is where oil’s cycles reveal their structure.
📊 Every major move follows precise bar counts, proving the market follows timing, not random price action.
🕰️ News reacts to the market, but time controls it first.
This is where we decode the future.
2️⃣ 28 Bars – The Micro-Structure That Sets the Bigger Move
🔵 Every larger trend begins with 28-bar fractals.
🔄 It’s the market’s heartbeat—the foundation of oil’s timing structure.
📊 The energy of 28 builds into 55, and 89 bars, creating the Fibonacci wave.
👉 If the 28-bar structure continues, then the next move is already written.
3️⃣ 28 Bars – The Perfect Symmetry Between Expansions & Corrections
🌀 28 bars mark the equilibrium between cycles.
📈 It’s the tipping point: does oil expand higher or reverse?
🎯 Every major event aligns with a 28-bar cycle, proving that time, not price, dictates direction.
📏 Historical Cycle Confirmations:
✅ COVID Low (2020) → Ukraine War Top (2022) = 28° angle steep rise.
✅ Ukraine War Top (2022) → Dec 2023 Low = 28-bar structured correction.
✅ Next move? The next 28-bar cycle will confirm oil’s next major shift.
👉 If oil respects this, the next major move is already locked in.
4️⃣ 55 & 89 Bars – Fibonacci’s Dominance in Time
🔹 55 bars → Corrective phase, rebalancing the trend.
🔹 89 bars → Defines macro tops & bottoms, marking cycle expansions.
📊 Proven Historical Fibonacci Cycles in Oil:
✅ COVID Crash (2020) → Ukraine War Top (2022) = 55 bars
✅ Ukraine War Top (2022) → Dec 2023 Low = 55 bars
✅ Now heading toward the next 89-bar cycle completion.
📌 This is the natural law of time unfolding in the market.
5️⃣ Where Are We Right Now in the Cycle?
📅 Short-Term:
🔹 We are inside a 28-bar transition phase—this is decision time for oil.
📅 Mid-Term:
🔹 2025 projected top (~90 USD) aligns with the next 89-bar Fibonacci cycle completion.
🔹 2026 projected low (~34 USD) falls perfectly into a 55-bar correction sequence.
📅 Long-Term:
🔹 Final 155-bar macro-cycle → January 2028 marks the next major cycle peak.
👉 We are already inside the structure—only time will reveal the path.
6️⃣ What This Means for Trading: We’re Not Guessing, We’re Seeing
📌 This is bigger than price—it’s the market’s time structure.
📌 If this cycle holds, oil’s movement is already prewritten.
📌 We are not following news; we are following time itself.
🚀 Are we heading toward a 2025 peak and a 2026 drop? What happens after the next 28 bar sequence? Let’s discuss! 👇
WTI - Daily TradingRange ZoneBLACKBULL:WTI is oscillating between two key trend lines, and after hunting liquidity under the last bullish leg, another upward move is possible. This setup presents buy opportunities on lower time frames, and I’ll update this idea accordingly.
Additionally, oil remains within a broader trading range, reacting precisely to the mid-zone, which has previously acted as dynamic support. This level could push prices higher in the short term.
📈 Watch for potential bullish setups and follow for timely updates!
3000 Pips projectionGBPUSD : While there’s potential for a bullish continuation, the key condition is for the price to close above 1.2575 on the 4HTF. If this condition isn’t met, the bearish bias takes precedence, with a projection of over 200 pips to the downside before confirmation.
XAUUSD : Stay alert to the two potential scenarios previously outlined. Prepare for a significant market swing as price action unfolds.
USOIL : Anticipate a major market movement, with price expected to hit the 71.35 zone. If the stated conditions align, this could trigger a possible 1000-pip swing to the upside.
EURAUD : A clear structural shift is evident. We’ll wait for a decisive confirmation before targeting a 500-pip move to the upside, contingent on meeting the specified conditions.
Don't see what you'd love to see, only see what the market shows you.
Patience is the Way!Ieios.
Oil Market Update: Bearish Trend ContinuesOil Market Update: Bearish Trend Continues
The oil market is currently facing a bearish trend, with prices experiencing a significant decline. The highest price was recorded on January 15th at $80.73 per barrel, and it has since dropped to $74.50 per barrel, representing a depreciation of nearly 8.5% over about 9 days
Technical Analysis:
Technically, the price decline has broken several support levels, confirming the bearish trend. The next potential targets for the oil price are $73.00 and $71.30, which are critical support levels.
Key Factor Driving the Decline:
U.S. President Donald Trump demanded OPEC lower oil prices and the world drop interest rates in a speech to global business and political leaders and warned them they will face tariffs if they make their products anywhere but the U.S.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
USOIL have barrels for you!Pretty obvious PoC line would attract that like bees are to for honey!!!! Struggling in the orange box is what you would want for a breakout!!!
USOIL H4 I Bullish Bounce Based on the H4 chart, the price is approaching our buy entry level at 72.698, which aligns with a strong overlap support level. This level is expected to act as a potential reversal point in the bullish setup.
Our take profit is set at 74.884,an overlap resistance zone where price may encounter selling pressure.
The stop loss is placed at 71.193, below the previous swing low, providing room for price fluctuations while ensuring the bullish setup remains valid.
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Covid based crash scenario on oilA possible covid crash scenario on oil as we look at it going into negative figures. A break of the yearly low confirms covid pandemic will hit. High supply of oil with no demand (lockdown) oil prices fall
