OIL: THE CHART THAT COULD TIP THE WORLDWTI Crude just bounced hard off the $65 channel support, tagging resistance at $76 — and what happens next isn’t just about price. It’s about power.
Zoom into this chart:
We're sitting at a directional pivot with two possible outcomes:
1️⃣ If this was a truncated 5th wave, the structure is complete. Any further war escalation could be the catalyst for oil to break resistance — dragging down risk assets, including CRYPTOCAP:BTC and equities.
2️⃣ If wave 5 isn’t done, we’ll likely see one more sharp leg down before oil launches. Either way, this is a high-stakes Elliott Wave setup with global macro consequences.
Chart with FIB Levels:
You'll see the wave I’ve marked (3) is messy, and on lower timeframes, that may hint at a truncated move worth watching.
Why this matters:
Over 20% of global oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint controlled by Iran. If conflict escalates, that line gets squeezed… and oil price explodes.
Price to watch:
$76 resistance.
If oil breaks, the markets will react fast.
If it fails, we might get one more correction and maybe some relief from the sideways pain we’ve seen across risk assets.
Remember the COVID Crash?
Oil literally went below zero in April 2020. That wasn't just a chart anomaly, it was a global demand collapse. Traders were paying to get rid of oil because there was nowhere to store it. That moment marked a generational low, and what followed was a powerful multi-year 5 wave up.
Now look where we are:
That same COVID low helped form the base of the current Elliott Wave structure. The fact we’re back testing levels that once sparked global panic is no coincidence.
If you’ve been here before, you’ll see the signs. The charts always leave traces. And if this is the end of wave 5, it could be the start of a whole new macro move.
TLDR:
Stop trading headlines.
Trade the structure.
This chart is telling us everything.
OIL_CRUDE trade ideas
The situation escalates? Crude oil gains remain stable
💡Message Strategy
The daily chart of WTI crude oil shows a 30% increase from late May to mid-June, with prices stagnating below resistance near $76. The Commodity Channel Index (CCI) has been overbought since late May and is now approaching a potential buy signal below 100.
Volatility peaked on June 14 and has since fallen back, suggesting that oil prices could see a correction if tensions in the Middle East do not escalate further. But now that the United States is out of the game and the situation could escalate at any time, crude oil is still in a bullish market.
📊Technical aspects
From the daily chart level, crude oil prices have broken through the upper resistance of the range in the medium term and tested a new high of 75.00. The moving average system is in a bullish arrangement, and the medium-term objective trend is upward. The current trend is in the upward rhythm of the main trend. The MACD indicator fast and slow lines overlap with the bullish column above the zero axis, indicating that the bullish momentum is currently full, and it is expected that the medium-term trend is expected to usher in a wave of rising rhythm.
The short-term (1H) trend of crude oil fluctuated and then broke through upward, and the oil price tested a new high near 78.40. The moving average system gradually opened upward, and the short-term objective trend direction was upward.
In terms of momentum, the MACD indicator fast and slow lines opened upward near the zero axis, and the bullish momentum was dominant. It is expected that the trend of crude oil will maintain a high level of fluctuation upward.
💰Strategy Package
Long Position:74.50-75.50,SL:73.50
Short-term target is around 77.00-78.00
Trump’s “ambiguous” statement, where will oil prices go?
💡Message Strategy
Trump's remarks are repeated, and the geopolitical premium still limits the downward space of oil prices
Trump said that the United States "may or may not" join Israel's actions against Iran. Analysts pointed out that if the United States is officially involved in the conflict, oil prices may rise by $5; if peace talks are launched, they may fall by the same amount.
The geopolitical focus is still on the Strait of Hormuz
Iran produces 3.3 million barrels of oil per day, but more importantly, about 19 million barrels of crude oil are transported through the Strait of Hormuz. The escalation of the conflict may threaten the safety of the waterway.
The Fed's policy turn to dovish failed to effectively support oil prices
Although the Fed hinted that it may cut interest rates twice this year, Chairman Powell emphasized that the decision still depends on inflation data, and Trump's upcoming new round of import tariffs may push up prices and limit the boost in oil demand brought about by loose policies.
📊Technical aspects
From the daily chart level, crude oil prices in the medium term broke through the upper resistance of the range and tested a new high of 75.50. The moving average system is in a bullish arrangement, and the medium-term objective trend is in the direction.
The current trend is in the upward rhythm of the main trend. The MACD indicator fast and slow lines overlap with the bullish column above the zero axis, indicating that the bullish momentum is currently full, and it is expected that the medium-term trend is expected to usher in a wave of rising rhythm.
💰Strategy Package
Long Position:73.00-73.50,SL:72.50
The first target is around 75.50
The second target is around 76.50
If the situation in the Middle East escalates, the room for crude oil to rise will be enlarged
Today's crude oil trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to 1. Technical Support at the $74 Safety Cushion
Current prices sit squarely in the $74-$78 trading range, with $74 acting as a proven safety cushion—history shows prices rebounding each time they test this level. The $75.03 dip is a hair's breadth from this buffer, testing its resilience.
2. Why the Pullback?
- **Geopolitical Fatigue**: Markets are shrugging off Iran's Strait of Hormuz blockade threats, like crying wolf too often.
- **OPEC+ Supply Jitters**: Despite Saudi Arabia potentially limiting exports due to domestic power demand, the group's production hike announcement has fueled oversupply concerns.
3. Underlying Tensions Remain
Iran's rhetoric may be empty so far, but the standoff resembles two foes clutching weapons mid-argument—any escalation could send prices surging. This dip likely reflects market indecision, as traders await the first move.
4. Trading Strategies for Different Styles
- **Aggressive Traders**:
Consider light long positions near $75, like resting your foot on the gas before a stoplight turns green. Set stop-loss below $74 (breaching the safety cushion signals a trend shift) and target $78 initially, eyeing higher levels on a breakout.
- **Conservative Traders**:
Stick to range trading: buy near $74-$75 and sell around $77-$78, like cruising on a flat road for steady gains. Keep position sizes small and take profits promptly.
5. Key Watchout: Strait of Hormuz Realities
Monitor for concrete disruptions—oil tanker attacks or navigation system glitches would confirm the "wolf has arrived." Adjust positions decisively based on pre-set plans: add to longs on threats, or cut losses if diplomacy defuses tensions.
The market resembles a ship in choppy waters—opportunities and risks coexist. Stay vigilant and flexible, like a driver scanning the road ahead while ready to brake or steer. In this game, survival outpaces quick profits.
Today's crude oil trading strategy, I hope it will be helpful to you
USOIL buy@74~74.5
SL:73
TP1:75.5~76.5
TP2:77~78
U-oyela Ongahluziwe Nenkunzi.Considering the current countries in conflict - FX:USOIL is in the middle of it. This will lead in a high demand but low supply of the commodity resulting in a soaring bullish move, fundamentally. Technically, the commodity has created a LL in the current year, tapping lows last touched since 2021 and has further recovered from last years close of 71.899.
FX:USOIL reaching highs of $110.00 is therefore likely.
***The best way to take advantage of this commodity or any other is to cherry pick stocks that are sensitive to it e.g. JSE:SOL is sensitive to FX:USOIL .***
US oil Oil prices could rise due to high geopolitical uncertainties Prices Poised to Rise Amid Heightened Geopolitical Tensions
Oil prices have remained steady in recent days, driven by the anticipation of potential diplomatic resolutions between Iran and Israel. However, with diplomacy now off the table and news emerging of a U.S. strike on Iran, the market is reacting swiftly.
Given the current geopolitical climate, it’s normal to expect a surge in oil prices. However, traders should be aware that oil is highly volatile—it tends to spike rapidly but often struggles to maintain upward momentum.
While a price increase is likely, as illustrated in the attached chart, the level of risk remains elevated. Please exercise caution when trading under these conditions.
More details are provided in the chart.
Thank you, and good luck!
Oil Set to Surge? Aggressive Entry Ahead of Potential BreakoutWTI is showing signs of a breakout following reports suggesting price spikes ahead. I've taken an aggressive position early, with an extreme risk-reward setup. A more conservative 3R idea also sits in play if price confirms. Watch for a trendline break—the clearest sign of lift-off. But be warned: the gap breakout may hit before many can get in. Momentum is building fast.
Oil panic buying after Iran Strikes?President Donald Trump has confirmed that the U.S., in coordination with Israel, has conducted three strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
Will there be panic buying of WTI and Brent at the open?
In response, Iran’s parliament has approved a proposal to close the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil shipping route. The final decision lies with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
If a blockade is enforced, oil prices could rise sharply. ClearView Energy Partners estimates a short-term closure could add between $8 and $31 per barrel. JP Morgan has suggested that a full-scale conflict and complete shutdown could drive prices to $130.
XTIUSD H4 AnalysisXTIUSD Showing a bearish Flag. If it breaks this zone above, Most probably can fly upto 81.00 and higher. If no, Can rally between 72, 68 or even 66. Trading Analysis from 23-06-25 to 27-06-25. Take your risk under control and wait for market to break support or resistance on smaller time frame. Best of luck everyone and happy trading.🤗
Oil prices could rise due to high geopolitical uncertaintiesOil prices could rise due to high geopolitical uncertainties
The price of OIL has been waiting all these days with hopes for negotiations between Iran and Israel.
Currently, diplomacy is dead, so for now, the market has to absorb the news that the US has attacked Iran.
The price of oil is normal to rise and it is also very risky because it reacts quickly and does not keep the bullish momentum.
The price may rise as I showed in the chart, but the risk remains high.
Please be careful.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
CRUDE OIL (WTI): Technical Analysis & Important pattern to WatchHere’s my latest analysis on ⚠️USOIL price action.
The price has recently finished a correction, followed by a brief consolidation in a horizontal range and an ascending triangle pattern
A bullish breakout above the intraday resistance levels would suggest a likely end to the accumulation phase.
The chances are high that the pair is returning back to a bullish trend, with a target of 77.00.
Strong fundamentals back this bullish outlook.
US-Oil will further push upside After Testing TrendlineHello Traders
In This Chart XTIUSD HOURLY Forex Forecast By FOREX PLANET
today XTIUSD analysis 👆
🟢This Chart includes_ (XTIUSD market update)
🟢What is The Next Opportunity on XTIUSD Market
🟢how to Enter to the Valid Entry With Assurance Profit
This CHART is For Trader's that Want to Improve Their Technical Analysis Skills and Their Trading By Understanding How To Analyze The Market Using Multiple Timeframes and Understanding The Bigger Picture on the Charts
Potential 3000+pips on XXXUSD PairsGBPUSD
We anticipate a potential bullish move towards the 1.3540 region, from there, we'll be watching closely for sign of exhaustion to initiate a short position, targeting up to 300pips to the downside. A confirmed daily close below the 1.2270 level will serve as out trigger to hold the short position with confidence,
EURUSD
For this market, we remain cautiously bearish. A 4H timeframe close below the 1.3950 region will be our signal to begin more sells to the downside targets around 1.3400 and 1.12800 zones. Until that breakdown occurs, we'll remain on the side-lines to avoid premature entries.
XAUUSD
Gold will be traded with a high level of discipline- only high conviction trades will be taken here. We're currently waiting for a clear breAK and close below the 3291.90 level before initiating any shorts positions. Until then, we maintain a neutral stance and monitor price action closely around key levels.
USOIL
We're keeping an eye on possible entry opportunities, anticipating a potential rally towards the 116 region. Updates on the setup and validation criteria will follow as price action unfolds.
Send a direct message if you are interested in more info about Capital Management.
Patience is the Way! Ieios
Crude Oil Market Trend Forecast for Next WeekThe oil price continued its upward trend this week, despite a brief correction on Friday. As of Friday's Asian session, Brent crude oil futures dropped by $1.57, or 2%, to $77.28 per barrel. However, the cumulative weekly gain reached 3.9%, marking three consecutive weekly increases. Geopolitical risks continued to fuel market sentiment. Oil prices surged nearly 3% on Thursday after Israel bombed Iranian nuclear targets, following Iran's missile strikes on Israel after its earlier missile attack on an Israeli hospital. The focus of the current crude oil market has shifted entirely from supply-demand fundamentals to geopolitical risks. Although Iran's crude oil exports have not been substantially disrupted, investors have started to price in the worst-case scenario. If the situation further deteriorates and affects shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz, global energy prices may face a new round of sharp volatility.
In the short term, oil prices still exhibit upward potential, with the current trend maintaining an overall upward trajectory. The MACD indicator's fast and slow lines overlap with bullish bars above the zero axis, signaling robust bullish momentum. This suggests that the medium-term trend is expected to usher in an upward rally.
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Trading Strategy:
buy@72.0-72.5
TP:75.0-75.5
OILThe proposed closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran's parliament is a significant development because the strait is a vital global energy artery, handling a substantial portion of the world's oil and gas. If closed, it would disrupt global energy supplies, potentially leading to a surge in oil prices and impacting international trade. While the plan is not yet finalized, the mere possibility of such action introduces significant geopolitical risk and could have far-reaching economic consequences.
Crude Oil Market: Geopolitical Risk Premium Soars Sharply Crude Oil Market: Geopolitical Risk Premium Soars Sharply
(1) Strait of Hormuz: Global Energy Artery in Crisis
As the gateway for 20% of global crude oil transportation, every disturbance in the Strait of Hormuz grips market nerves. The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has now deployed missile boats and mine-laying vessels at the strait's narrowest point (just 33 km). The UK Maritime Security Agency warns that Iran may adopt a "gradual blockade"—first causing shipping chaos through electronic jamming, then escalating to mine blockades.
Historical experience shows that even partial blockades can drive tanker insurance premiums up by over 900% and increase transportation costs by 50-100%. Current ultra-large crude carrier (VLCC) freight rates have risen 22% from last month, with many shipping companies evaluating routes around the Cape of Good Hope, which would extend Asian crude oil arrival times by 15-20 days.
(2) Supply Side: Production Increase Plans Meet Geopolitical Storm
Although OPEC+ plans to continue increasing production by 411,000 bpd in July, market focus has fully shifted to Middle East supply disruption risks. Iran currently maintains exports of 1.1 million bpd, but if the conflict escalates, this figure could drop to zero within 48 hours. More crucially, alternative export channels for Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and other countries (such as the East-West Pipeline) have a total capacity of only 3.5 million bpd, unable to fully compensate for the shortfall from the Strait of Hormuz blockade.
U.S. shale oil also can't solve the urgent problem: although production just hit a record 9.33 million bpd, labor shortages and rising drilling costs have caused new well investments to fall by 12%, and analysts expect production growth to slow to below 3% in the second half of the year.
(3) Demand Side: Risk Aversion Overshadows Real Weakness
Despite U.S. gasoline demand hitting a five-year seasonal low and European imports falling 5.1% year-on-year, geopolitical risks have triggered panic buying. The near-month contract price of Shanghai crude oil futures jumped 12% this week, and the SC-WTI spread turned to a premium of $3.16/bbl for the first time, reflecting Asian market concerns about regional supply disruptions. More notably, Brent crude net long positions have increased to a ten-week high, with speculative funds wildly betting on geopolitical premiums.
Analysis of crude oil trend next week, hope it helps you
USOIL buy@74~74.5
SL:72
TP:75.5~76.5
$OIL - Strait of Hormuz closure = $120 a Barrel. MARKETSCOM:OIL - Strait of Hormuz closure = $120 a Barrel. 🛢️
~20% of global oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz. (near Iran)
→ That’s over 17 million barrels per day (2023 data).
If Strait of Hormuz get closed or war escalates in this area, I'm expecting MARKETSCOM:OIL to sky-rocket to $120 a barrel.
Weekly Break-out + Hammer candle confirmed. ✅
What's your prediction? Will the war escalate and create global oil disruption?
Oil potential bull runOil has taken out a long term liquidity level and had a market shift, the growing tensions between Israel and Iran may fuel a demand for oil as well as oil being under valued when all other markets had been inflated due to inflation. We will see how this market moved but it is very interesting to have a look out for bullish opportunities to the upside.
WTI Crude Oil Long Setup Amid Rising Geopolitical TensionsWTI is forming a bullish structure with potential for further upside. Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Iran are adding pressure to the supply side, supporting higher oil prices. A long position aligns with both technical momentum and the increasing risk premium.