BTCUSD11N2025 trade ideas
$BTC retested and caught a cold, likely will sell off moreCRYPTOCAP:BTC retested the all time high & then sold off, as expected.
The 2nd phase is the more important one and it is right around the corner. In a previous post we mentioned 3 and 6 months from ATH was a pivot point.
#BTC will likely keep selling off until it reaches major support & that area is a is do or die time, represented by cyan arrows.
#Bitcoin Money flow is not very good & the RSI is still sinking.
will BTC plummet? or is this the buildup to trigger 75k???
theres two ways id look at bitcoin, either id be waiting for a buy on 3rd leg down, or seeing it it breaks for 75 first. i would really like to see the 3rd push down and an explosive move to 75k.
lower low made on tuesday, higher high made today, chances of going parabolic later in the week thurs/fri have increased drastically!
tomorrow is day 3 ill be looking to see a coupel different scenarios. waiting for previous day high or low to be taken out first then seeing how price responds from there.
its a buy low template for tomorrow in 1 of the 3 sessions so be ready. tonight or tomorrow.
i repeat buy low template!! id be waiting for PDL to be taken out theres a few different ways to play first green day. be patient and sdave your bullets!! there will be plenty of opportunities
BITCOIN MONTHLY BIAS TRADEThis idea base on MAY month opening price,
now were on June for liquidity grab highs.
Im expecting less on Discount idea to clear that level of liquidity above.
But if you want to wait the Real money transfer, wait again below.
For discount traders trade base on stoploss , trade base on your own.
This is not a financial advice,
this idea are monthly basis.
Follow for more.
$BITCOIN
BTC Long Scalp OpportunityDear Friends,
Another long Scalping opportunity has arrived on BTC and I feel bullish. Obviously There will be dips as market needs these for rocket fuel.
Take care till next trade.
$BTC short term bounce is necessary#bitcoin #btc chart has formed a bullish divergence in LTF. A minor bounce in #btcusd may be expected. Breaking down 67300 #usdt level invalidates.
BTC on CME - Confirming Breakout?Here we have the CME chart and we notice something very interesting which could lay out Bitcoins direction for the coming week.
On Friday Bitcoin closed at $69,650 on CME which "coincidently" closed the candle body exactly on top of that white trendline.
Today, CME is about to open in 2 hours and currently BTC's price should align again with the same trendline.
This is the 1D chart so we need to see confirmation close above to confirm this retest as a new level of support and confirmed breakout to higher highs.
This means if on Monday CME is able to defend this level that should give us the ability for price to retest $71.3k on the spot chart and as soon as we get a 3D close above $71.3k we are starting the next leg of the bull market.
BTC looks okay, 1st phase pretty much complete, phase 2 nextTurned bullish on CRYPTOCAP:BTC during the beginning of May.
Futures #BTC looks good but the volume is lacking a bit.
RSI looks okay but not great.
$ Flow is not that great either.
Spot #Bitcoin = ditto.
However, technically they look good, they are trading above their respective moving averages.
What would seal the deal? HUGE volume breaking highs!
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Not shown here, pls see profile for more info.
Noticed an interesting weekly CRYPTOCAP:BTC pattern. Will speak on that later as the pattern will likely resolve months from now. Want to see what happens within the next couple months first.
Spot #BTC hasn't proven it's better to chart vs futures #Bitcoin, doubt it will until it counts (meaning it'll change when things hit the fan).
Current box is the best looking. We'll see what happens very soon.
#crypto
BTC rain
All ideas are strictly my interpretation of price action. I am not a professional trader nor is this
professional advice.
BTC Playbook Trade IdeaMarket experiencing some level of Resistance at Price Zone 70,000 -72,000. Expecting a drop to these marked demand levels
BTC Playbook Trade IdeaMarket experiencing some level of Resistance at Price Zone 70,000 -72,000. Expecting a drop to these marked demand levels
BTC1!Technically, we've been in a rangebound environment since early march, similar to btc price action from december - early february, which culminated in 3 weeks of aggressive markup after having built sufficient cause.
I suspect this time won't be different - 3 or so weeks of aggressive markup likely just around the corner.
The push to 6 figs btc.
Long ETH, Short BTC on Expected ETH ETF Approval SEC's unexpected nod for Ethereum Spot ETFs (“ETH ETFs”) through the approval of 19b-4 forms has ignited a fresh wave of excitement in crypto markets. This paper delves into the impact on ETH/BTC Ratio fuelled by this development. The ratio has been a laggard throughout the current bull run.
ETHER ETF ADVANCES TOWARDS APPROVAL
On 23rd May, the SEC unexpectedly approved the 19b-4 forms, permitting CBOE, Nasdaq, and NYSE to list ETH ETFs. This surprised participants who anticipated a rejection.
Take note that this does not signify that spot ETH ETFs are approved for trading yet. The applications must still clear the next hurdle, which is the approval of the S-1 form. This process could potentially be drawn out over the next couple of months but there are encouraging signs.
Last week, Blackrock updated its S-1 form for its iShares Ethereum Trust (ETHA), suggesting that the issuers and SEC were working towards fine-tuning the details. The Block reported that other issuers were told to send in their updated S-1 filings by Friday 31/May.
Additional rounds of revisions are expected before a final decision. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas opines that approval could come as soon as June.
A key point of interest for ETH ETFs will be whether the ETH held in these instruments can be staked. Staking Ethereum generates 3.4% APR (Annual Percentage Rate) as of 3rd June. Staking is exposed to risk of losses through slashing. Yet, it makes Spot ETFs attractive to investors.
ETH ETF WILL DRIVE SPOT DEMAND
Like the spot Bitcoin ETFs, ETH ETFs will drive additional spot demand for the cryptocurrency. Since launch, Bitcoin ETFs have seen more than USD 13 billion of capital inflows .
Spot ETFs represents new source of demand and in the month following its launch, inflows drove large price moves.
ETH ETFs are unlikely to attract the same level of demand as Bitcoin ETFs. Inflows into ETH ETFs are expected to be a fraction of those into BTC ETFs, with ETH assets constituting about 10%-20% of BTC assets in various regions, according to comparisons of currently listed instruments.
Source: Eric Balchunas on X
Projecting this level of spot demand, ETH ETFs could witness inflows between USD 1.1 billion (10% of BTC inflows) to USD 2.2 billion (20% of BTC inflows) over the next three months.
ETH HAS LAGGED IN THE CURRENT CRYPTO RALLY
BTC has been the clear winner in the current crypto rally. BTC is the only large crypto to exceed its previous all-time-high until now. In terms of relative performance, other cryptocurrencies have displayed robust performance too.
Other crypto-assets Solana, Dogecoin and Binance Coin have surged to outperform BTC over the last six months. ETH has been a noticeable laggard.
ETH had been underperforming even BTC until 20th May. Following the rally after approval, ETH has just managed to catch up to BTC performance but still lags relative to smaller (and riskier) crypto assets SOL, DOGE, and BNB.
To get a sense of relative performance, we can plot the ratios of these crypto assets with BTC. This chart makes ETH underperformance relative to BTC even clearer.
This underperformance might suggest that investors have moved away from ETH. That risk when flipped could also present an opportunity for ETH to outperform BTC in the coming weeks.
ETH/BTC ratio is a mean-reverting quantity and relative to the peaks seen during past cryptocurrency bull runs, the ratio is low. Notably, the ratio rallied sharply after BTC reached new all-time-high levels in the past.
HYPOTHETICAL TRADE SETUP
Approval of ETH ETFs in the near term is likely to translate into spot buying, driving up prices. A hypothetical trade consisting of a long position in the ETH/BTC ratio will benefit as ETH outperforms BTC.
Investors can execute a spread trade on the ETH/BTC ratio using CME Micro Bitcoin and CME Micro Ether futures. Each contract of Micro Bitcoin futures provide exposure to 0.1 Bitcoin and each contract of Micro Ether futures provide exposure to 0.1 Ether. Eighteen contracts of Micro Ether are required to balance notional value on both legs of the trade.
• Entry: 0.0547
• Target: 0.0600
• Stop Loss: 0.0520
• Profit at Target: USD 655
• Loss at Stop: USD 336
• Reward/Risk: 1.95x
Notably, this trade does not match notional exactly as the current BTC/ETH ratio is 18.28. Alternatively, CME offers Ether/Bitcoin Ratio (EBR) futures that enable investors to gain exposure to the ETH/BTC ratio through a single transaction and match notional exactly.
Each contract of these futures corresponds to an exposure of USD 1,000,000 multiplied by the index value (approximately USD 54,810 at a ratio of 0.05481 as of May 31).
These contracts enable investors to obtain relative value exposure on these closely correlated assets without taking a directional stance. The EBR contract is also substantially more margin efficient than individual futures on both legs (USD 6,800 vs USD 28,000 for the same notional value). However, investors should be aware that these newly introduced futures have poor liquidity compared to individual Ether and Bitcoin full-size and micro futures contracts.
MARKET DATA
CME Real-time Market Data helps identify trading set-ups and express market views better. If you have futures in your trading portfolio, you can check out on CME Group data plans available that suit your trading needs www.tradingview.com
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MBT long/short if-then scenarioIf price returns to discount, then I am looking at Friday's BISI for longs. There is 1D v.POC & t.POC in proximity.
I prefer this first, as untapped t.POC at 69650 is a great initial target for longs
Stop loss near the 67100 local low upon End of Value
The higher probability, if price forces a higher high I am looking for a short
Right above this local high is a t.POC, there is also as SIBI from Thursday. Also a very large volume node & potential for RSI bear div.
I will NOT put blind limits for anything. I will be watching structure on the lower TF (5min) as we approach these key levels; among other edge, & these are just key levels N.F.A.
Cool OffAll ideas are strictly my interpretation of price action. I am not a professional trader nor is this
professional advice.
I will continually update all trades.
I'm falling for youAll ideas are strictly my interpretation of price action. I am not a professional trader nor is this
professional advice.
I will continually update all trades.
BTC CONTINUOUSLY UPTREND IF NEAREST SUPPORT NOT TURNCOAT.BTC/USD in the light of price action analysis continue their uptrend bearish flag patteren if support remain unbreakable. If we see usd index that improve himself strongly upside that may break support of BTC/USd downward for back test.
NOT MUCH TO EXPLAIN-click to find out other part btc is in a cycle of 4 years... vlaue lows(dec18) a mrk up second day test of lows a dip(march20) .. for our smc people we test the spring . then we halve and accumate oders(dec 20)
then we get our first tp( apr21)to take some profit to add more longs on this move to leverage (july21) then we get our last break of liquidity to the top side our last time to exit all postionsn (nov21)
Bitcoin has already risen in price as much as the direction in wBitcoin has already risen in price as much as the direction in which transactions have bet. Additionally, the volume of trading volume betting upward has decreased, so it is expected to rise again after partial adjustment
BTC Long, possible path to 100k if bulls step in fast and hardBTC has a chance to reach ~100k if it can get above the previous ATH of ~74k considering the recent uptrend and interest since the 57k bottom forming a higher high.
Otherwise, if BTC gets under 65k, it will likely continue its range until Aug and form another pivot. More so, if it closes under 62k on a daily candle. It'll bring consideration of reaching 45k if we close under 57k.
In the event of hyperinflation or BTC exceeding 110k, I suspect it to max out at 145k, 195k, or 235k. 30k-35k is roughly the capitulation zone/hard bottom in a worst-case scenario to where it begins to compromise the network for this cycle.
Note that current prices above 65k are met with extreme resistance for good reason if you're looking at the right charts surrounding liquidity/fair value, pointing toward a cycle top or at least a mid-cycle top similar to 2019. Also, the market shifted bullish at the 70k top on May 20th, so there is consideration for a correction. BTC wouldn't be abnormal to trade as a ranging asset considering how fund managers will likely rebalance/offset risk with the near 100% returns since the ETF's inception. By ranging, I mean both, 74k-57k until Aug, and 74k-30k until EOY. Early June may present itself as an unexpected downward move. Not sure of its strength, guessing -8-10%. Be weary of more geopolitical events affecting price in the coming months.
Overall, the BTC is neutral/bullish in the short term if it can hold 65k and overtake 74k, giving the chance of reaching 100k by Aug. Bearish long term while it is under 75k, vulnerable to ranging to 57k until Aug, or even worse to a low of 35k or 45k through the rest of the year. However, its more probable that the short term neutral/bullish case takes place at current prices and conditions as of when this idea is published.
Long at 67.5k
tp 76k, 85k, 94k, 106k (likely close here)
sl 62.5k
Long at 60k (if prev long got stopped out and we do range) - expires by early Aug if not filled
same tps
sl 55k
Long at 46k
same tps
sl 40k
Bitcoin looks set to rally above 60kWe all know of the strong rally that catapulted to a fresh record high in March. Yet price action since appears to be corrective. Whilst we do not yet know if this is simply the first leg lower of a complex correction, or it is set to break to new highs - only time will tell. However, it appears set for a leg higher over the near term.
Volume retreated with prices since the March high, which is a typical characteristic of a retracement. Yet a final stab lower found support at the 100-day EMA, 38.2% and 50% retracement levels before a mini V-bottom formed. This also coincided with RSI (14) hitting oversold, which I define as below 40 during an uptrend.
The prices have since retreated lower from the rally back above 65k, and showing signs of stability above 60k. The retracement held above the 61.8% Fibonacci level and are now holding above the 50% level.
Bulls could enter live at market with a stop below 60k (or recent swing low) with an initial target at 65.5, a break above which brings 68k into focus - or the highs near the high-volume node.
