Bitcoin, Outside BarBTCUSD
Hello traders, welcome back to another market breakdown.
In this video I give an update and my opinion about Bitcoin recent price action.
Trade safely,
Trader leo.
BTCUSD03F2025 trade ideas
"SELL IN MAY...?" tgt 33k..?TL;DR: 32k --> 20k...?
Here's my current EW count and HTF thesis. If my count is accurate, I think we can squeeze 33k out of wave 5. This will also satisfy the Wyckovians among us but we will not make the D1 gap around 35k.
After 33k, I think there is a good chance we can begin dropping back to 20k, where we just made a new D1 gap on the way up. 19k is also the VPOC for this range, so 20k with wicks to 19k seems reasonable to fill the gap and consolidate from this run.
The Inverse scallop we made in the low 20's has been satisfied by the recent high at 31k.
BTC heading to CME gap?Here is the possible scenario for BTC after inability to break the resistance and fill the 35000 CME gap,It is possible that it’s heading down to fill 20000-21000 CME gap first.Lets see how its gonna play out,Always a student!
$BTC upper part of TRIANGLEPosted some #crypto #altcoins & CRYPTOCAP:BTC analysis over last couple of days
(pls see profile for more info)
Began to go long on those calls & so far working out
@ about 10% cash since then
#BTC HAS, MUST, push here
IF IT DOES NOT
Likely going a bit lower & stay within the TRIANGLE pattern unless #Bitcoin breaks to downside
IMO - NO
Fake out to shake out, POC testWouldn't surprise me to see this run of liquidity to gap-fill below and test the local Point of Control (POC), before rocketing up to test the VAH (value area high), also filling another gap...
If bullish momentum continues, expecting a run to fill the last local gap in the 34-35k region.
Ultimate target for the "Echo Bubble" of 23 would be around 48k..
BTC consolidation phase = channel, Symmetrical Triangle, update!Posted this couple hours ago
Going to focus on short times frames for CRYPTOCAP:BTC
IMO that is best until we get a BETTER view of what is really happening
IMO #BTC should still go higher but needs consolidation, rest
RSI is hanging in middle
#bitcoin is on a CHANNEL but it's also forming TRIANGLE pattern (these tend to be CONTINUATION patterns)
4hr shows this a lil bit better
Would be nice 2c volume coming in, not much happening on 1HR
-------------------------
EDIT
See the volume atm? This is VERY important!
Holding the triangle pattern we spoke about before
Not convinced to go buy as the last time this happened #BTC had another leg down
KEEP in MIND that these are SHORT TERM charts so be careful
This is good 2c though, VERY GOOD!
BTC OutlookCMA Gap fill in the $20K area, busted inverted head and shoulders, short liquidations trigger upside into the halving.
BTCUSD PLAN Hello to all small and big traders, today I was checking all the empty spaces of CME when I noticed 3 gaps that have not been filled yet, one is in the area of 34000 to 34800, one is in the area of 21000 to 20000 and the other is in the area of 9500 to 10600. It doesn't matter if it is filled, but it must be filled. This plan is for a long-term view. Now or first, we will pay 34,000 dollars, and then the drop and the new floor, and then we will move right at the time of halving for the new ATH, or it will be filled later, whatever the case may be. be careful .
BACKTEST SELLOFF TRIGGEREDI believe the quick drop yesterday could have been a large order that was triggered by backtesting this trend line. Im bearish from here until proven otherwise.
Anomaly Shooting up +10% to liquidate. Shooting down immediately after -10%. This is a problem in the market. Or maybe we can continue the conversation? Why does this happen? Is it always a pervasive force or are there benefits to such action that are unforeseen to me? I truly would like to learn more. Because - to me - this does not represented a healthy market. It seems like a detractor from public confidence.
In Bitcoin You Trust?I keep hearing an awful lot about bitcoin is the future, that bitcoin will skyrocket to $100,000 which makes no sense because they fail to realize the amount of money that would take. I wonder where the money comes from...? In this chart, I will give my take on Bitcoin and where I see it going. If I am wrong, I gladly accept it but I highly doubt that I will be. Let's start where it begins:
Bitcoin 2017
In December 2017, Bitcoin futures were now offered and part of the market thanks to CBOE . As you can tell, in early 2018, up to Dec 2018 bitcoin wasn't following the equities market until 2019 where we see the Nasdaq rising consecutively from Feb 2019 until July 2019. In that same period we also see Bitcoin rallying. It isn't until March 2020 where we see the truth. Bitcoin crash as the same time as the markets did, and in fact it lead in terms of percentage lost, it was the worst performing asset.
Quantitative Easing
March 2020 saw the beginning of QE4, where the Fed started throwing money at everything. Hence the parabolic rise in the stock market, setting new all time highs.... during a PANDEMIC & RECESSION. Make sense? Not at all. The Fed is solely responsible for the markets rallying. Period. Ironic that at the same time the Equities market rises, Bitcoin also rallies.
Quantitative Tightening
In Nov, 2021, the Fed announced that QE had done its job (creating the biggest bubble ever) and now stated they were going to ease, and reduce their balance sheet . Well, as we saw, the Nasdaq AND Bitcoin peaked in November 2021 and started crashing significantly. Once again, Bitcoin was the leading loser and worst performing asset.
2023 Rally Explained
Now, investors are looking at Bitcoin rising from $16,000 to now $28,000 and saying this the beginning of a bull market. But, once again, with a little digging we see that stocks and bitcoin are rising because...... The Fed Balance sheet skyrocketed during the March banking crisis. Stocks were crashing but in came the Plunge Protection Team, saved the day by pumping the dying toxic stock market. The stock market is like a nice looking car, but under the hood and on the inside, it's all old, worn, broken, missing the engine, torn up and abused. The stock market does not reflect the economy, because if it did, the markets would be down 50% at least.
If you need a visual aid, search S&P500 vs Fed Balance Sheet
Conclusion and Key Take Away's
- Bitcoin follows the market, no doubt.
- Bitcoin benefitted from QE
- Bitcoin is NOT a safe haven, and in fact is -the worst asset to hold during turmoil.
- Bitcoin , like the equities market is manipulated and controlled.
So, where do I see Bitcoin going? I see it collapsing when the markets collapse. The markets can not hide the absolutely horrible economic data much longer. If this was 2008, based on this data coming out, markets would be far passed a correction. The ONLY thing holding this market up is the Fed and it'll continue to do so for a little more until it slips their control. So, if the stock market collapses and if we clearly see that Bitcoin follows the stock market to a T, than what does this mean for crypto when markets fall? It will once more collapse and be the worst performing asset when it does fall. Smart money is going into gold and silver . Everyone else believes in crypto as a safe-haven, yet clearly have not done simple due diligence to see that not only is it not a safe haven, but between commodities , stocks, and treasuries, crypto is absolute worst asset to own. The $30 trillion dollar QE charade bubble is about to explode and there is nothing anyone can do to stop it. The data is getting worse. The consumer debt is at record highs and savings are at record lows. Retail isn't coming back. Discretionary spending is down significantly. Demand has collapsed. ISM crashed. Manufacturing crashing. Housing is crashing faster and steeper than in 2008. Autos down significantly. Inventories are down to March 2020 lows. Orders are being cancelled. Layoffs are rising faster than in the last 3 years. The writing is on the wall folks, they can't hide this much longer. The greed will give way to financial pain.
Benefit from BTC crash?
Absolutely. Look into BITI and go from there ;)
Bitcoin, Fed, and EquitiesIn supplementation to my most recent chart, "In bitcoin we trust" I wanted to make my point even more clear by adding the Fed Balance Sheet.
As you can see, it has been and always was the Fed pumping every asset. March 2020, the Balance Sheet exploded higher, as did stocks and bitcoin/crypto market.
Prepare for anything because they're on to something. This just seems very odd and worrying. So much printing, so much new debt.. what happens to the USD, inflation? None of this is good. The higher markets go, the harder the crash will be.
These rallies are not based on sound healthy economy or inflation hedge or good earnings.. this is pure pump nonsense.
Bitcoin Gap Trade: $20k and then up to $35kShort-term bearish, long-term bullish.
I'm not currently trading Bitcoin and am only stacking, but I use the short-term technicals to time my buys which have been nearly every week since September 2022, and my current cost average is ~$20k.
Bitcoin price is attempting to hold above $28k after breaching but failing to hold above $30k this past week. The reversal here isn't surprising considering that price just pretty much ran from $20k to $30k unhindered so a pullback was expected at some point given the bearish sentiment that still surrounds crypto in general.
As for gap trades, Bitcoin tends to fill gaps sooner rather than later compared to other assets so the most likely path for Bitcoin going forward from here is a fill of the gap down near $20.5k in the coming weeks, price finding solid support in that range, and then a move higher to fill the gap up in the $35k range in the coming months.
Good luck out there traders.
Rising Wedge BreakoutLooking for 24-25k on this drop depending on how you want to drop your lines. 20k is on the table if we dont hold there and try to fill the gap.
BTCUSDCME GAP AROUND 28000 has been filled.
But considering the selling pressure, I don't think there will be any support from this area
BTC! CME Gap ChartChart of filled and unfilled gaps of CME BTC futures contracts
Green = Previously filled gap
Yellow = Unfilled gap
Red = Unfilled gap with large distance from current price
Double bottom on BTC CME futuresAlready swept the low on BTC futures because it doesn't include weekend volatility. Low could be in now and we could squeeze shorts all the way up to the 28k gap, or more likely we could be in an accumulation zone that will be more prolonged. Clear invalidation level if we dip below the range low, which could well happen if we get a true capitulation still.
Bitcoin, the possibilities #BTC #BTCUSDT #Bitcoin#BTC
#BTCUSDT
#Bitcoin
The Bullish & Bearish scenario is around a 10k difference to the upside & a 6k difference to the down side, remember that the market makers will ALWAYS leave at least two options on the table (someone has to loose).
The Bullish scenario would be a move to 43K (Blue B) before a pull back to 20K (Blue C) before commencing a bull run
The Bearish scenario would be a move to 34.4K (White 4) to 14K (White 5) before commencing a bull run
In both cases the bottom of the pink channel looks like it will be a catalyst for a reverse in trend, it just depends on how & when we arrive there.
The only way we will be able to tell which scenario is playing out will be if & when we close a weekly above $36150 as this will signal the invalidation of the White waves.
Time will tell but let me know your thoughts
BTCUSDT CME GAP I wanted to remind CME GAP ihvs to be careful with your transactions, it looks like a bloodbath is coming
BTC Overlay scenariosFigured out some overlays for BTC, I was actually kinda bullish on it until today when it didn't rally with the market.
Up or down, it needs a pause, Crypto has been moving in a stair step pattern, so it probably drifts sideways until the next Fed meeting. Bull and bear scenarios shown.
I'm just playing around with overlays from previous formations to get an idea of what it's gonna do. Not sure if it goes up or down, but I think it's not gonna do much for a month. No positions.
