ETH/USD Daily Chart: Ready for a BreakoutEthereum’s price action on the daily timeframe is showing signs of a potential breakout. As indicated on the chart, I have added a second position to this trade. Unlike my typical strategy, I will not take partials on this trade—I plan to close one full position instead.
Technical Analysis:
• Retracement to Key Fibonacci Levels: On the weekly timeframe, Ethereum retraced to the 0.6 Fibonacci level, a strong support zone that has shown a significant bullish rejection. This deep retracement hints at potential strength, setting the stage for an upward move.
• Resistance Zone at $2.5K: If ETH manages to break and close decisively above the $2.5K mark, it could confirm a healthy bullish continuation, signaling a possible retest of the upper ranges around $2.8K-$2.9K. However, if the price stalls, we may be entering a range trading scenario, fluctuating between $2.1K and $2.9K. In this case, I’ll close both positions around $2.8K-$2.9K, depending on how price reacts to those levels.
• Trendline Break: The daily chart shows that ETH is attempting to break a descending trendline. A confirmed break above this trendline would add more weight to the bullish case and indicate that ETH is gaining momentum.
Risk Management:
• I’ve set the stop-loss slightly below key support zones, minimizing downside risk if the market turns. As always, managing risk is the key factor. Should the price dip below the critical areas of support, I will consider closing both positions to limit losses.
Fundamental Insights:
1. Monochrome’s Ethereum ETF Launch: Monochrome has launched the first Ethereum ETF (IETH) on Cboe Australia today, adding a significant bullish catalyst to Ethereum’s price action. With in-kind Ether redemption and subscriptions, this ETF offers better tax efficiency for institutional investors, potentially increasing demand for ETH.
2. Institutional Activity: There’s a notable accumulation of ETH by institutional players. A wallet linked to Longling Capital recently added another 5,000 ETH ($12.34M) to its balance, pushing its total holdings to 68,064 ETH ($168M). This kind of movement underscores strong confidence in Ethereum’s price trajectory. With institutional players coming back into the market after the liquidation event in 2022, we are seeing a resurgence of interest in Ethereum, especially as it holds above the $2.5K mark.
3. Ethereum Price Action: Ethereum is gaining momentum, climbing over 3% today and trading above $2,500, aligning well with the overall rally in the crypto market. This rally is also supported by Bitcoin’s strength, as it trades near $65,000, further bolstering the sentiment in the crypto space.
Market Sentiment & Conclusion:
Despite some slowdown in institutional demand for crypto ETFs in the U.S., Ethereum’s price action and the recent ETF launch in Australia add positive momentum to this setup. If Ethereum continues to hold above $2.5K and follows through with a breakout, the next target will be around $2.8K-$2.9K. If the breakout stalls and range trading ensues, I’ll close my positions accordingly.
ETH traders should keep an eye on price action around $2.5K. The key takeaway is that even in uncertain market conditions, sticking to a well-defined plan, like the one outlined here, helps ensure proper risk management while seizing potential opportunities.
Let’s continue to monitor how this plays out!
Note: Please remember to adjust this trade idea according to your individual trading conditions, including position size, broker-specific price variations, and any relevant external factors. Every trader’s situation is unique, so it’s crucial to tailor your approach to your own risk tolerance and market environment.
