NVOShort-term problems with long-term solutions. NOVO is more than Ozempic "Insert liberal woman screaming I am more than my body". Anywho, buy NOVO Nordisk and beat the balding hedgies battling for 2 points over SPX yoy. dyo nfa yada yada
NOVO_B trade ideas
1/7/25 - $nvo - Probs a buy in low 80s... but...1/7/25 :: VROCKSTAR :: NYSE:NVO
Probs a buy in low 80s... but...
Friend who highlighted some good calls last year DM'd me (ty!) about this one. Figured i'd copy/paste my response in case anyone could add to this logic or is more knowledgeable on catalysts timing etc.
1/ i typically stay away from pharma (mainly bc i look at so many sectors and this is the singular one i've never covered professionally)
2/ the financials look great. growth, margins, cf generation - all "A" grade
3/ unclear how the NASDAQ:SAVA result will affect px performance in the coming days given diabetes seems to be a relevant part of the portfolio (but obviously this is a mega diversified name)
so in short, it's defn a buy here, but given my conviction on maybe 5 other names that i can really size up, i've set an even greedier entry look closer to sub $80... not that i'd not own it here, but just i don't want to overcomplicate my book at the moment while i'm moving/ shaking aggressively on other stuff.
4/ also, what the banana hammock happened on dec 19 - unlocking that "event's bottom"/ implication looks like the key to determining how low this goes. it's already massively oversold, so if it wicks much further, it's simply a buy on mean reversion anyway - could probably pick up an easy 5+% under $80 without even trying (which is my lazy approach here). but i don't fault u if u own it - looks legit.
5/ options chain implying meager MT move keeps me wondering if this is dead money for the immediate term and i should only be a greedy buyer in the mid 70s. i think there's a way to generate yield here, but feels too risk adverse for my style (high octane) until i can gear it up at these lower levels with a better sense for mkt rippity-do-dah
so - what do u think, anon?
V
NVO LongNovo Nordisk, a global leader in diabetes and obesity treatments, has traditionally maintained a solid financial standing with strong revenue growth, impressive profitability, and a robust pipeline of new treatments. However, the company has recently faced a significant dip in its stock price, largely due to market concerns related to its obesity treatment segment. While these concerns may reflect short-term volatility or market uncertainty, it’s important to recognize that the company's underlying fundamentals remain strong.
When evaluating the company through the lens of intrinsic value indicators—such as discounted cash flow analysis, price-to-earnings ratios, and projected growth rates—Novo Nordisk appears to be trading at a favorable price relative to its long-term growth potential. This suggests that, despite the recent drop in stock price, the company’s shares may be undervalued, offering a potentially attractive entry point for investors who are willing to take a long-term view.
In the long run, the obesity treatment market is expected to grow, and Novo Nordisk’s leadership in this space, along with its diversified portfolio and innovation-driven strategy, could well position it to benefit from future market developments. Therefore, the current stock price may present a buying opportunity for those who believe in the company’s continued strength and market leadership.
#DYOR
Novo Nordisk's The recent drop in Novo Nordisk's stock price is attributed to several factors. A key issue is the company’s struggle to meet the surging demand for its weight-loss drugs, such as Wegovy. Although demand remains strong, investors are concerned about Novo Nordisk's ability to scale up production and deliveries, which is creating downward pressure on the stock.
Additionally, some recent financial results failed to meet Wall Street expectations. Despite revenue growth in key product categories, overall revenues in some reports came in below forecasts. This underperformance has contributed to a negative investor sentiment.
However, analysts emphasize that Novo Nordisk's core products remain in high demand, and the company has significant long-term growth potential if it addresses its supply chain and production challenges
$NVO - gimme a POP LONGWassup folks, so: some of my ideas have proven to be correct and I'm watching others. NYSE:NVO has earnings approaching eom January. They have also experienced a sell off recently, however I think there's some potential for a pop to the upside... this underlying has some juice in it too, currently holding an IVR of 55%. There's some rich premium to be sold! Entering a put credit spread 01/31 selling the 88 strike and buying the 86 strike! Break even will be the sold put strike minus credit collected = $87.50 ish!, I'LL ALSO BE RUNNING A TIGHT STOP HERE... ANYTHING WITH A CLOSE BELOW $80 HANDLE IS AN OUT FOR ME
NVO highest conviction trade of the yearNVO has sold off brutally after breaking the macro momentum trend. This stock was indeed overheated but sold off even worse after a miss on projected weight loss percentage of a new med. We have hit the golden pocket correction. BBWP is maxed out, and stochastic RSI is bottoming. This is extremely overblown, this new med is not even adding to their already massive revenue. I expect NVO to hit well over 110$ this year as healthcare in general lags into uncertain markets. I love trading these gap style plays or massive over reaction sell offs. Novo Nordisk is one of the most fundamentally strong companies in the world. As SPX becomes even more expensive, investors will look internationally.
My plan: Short term side ways
I plan on layering into out of the money LEAPS, likely 110 as that will allow me to capture a lot of delta expansion
NOVO has developed an H&S formationAs others have also mentioned on Trading View, NOVO has developed an H&S formation.
The formation is to some extent supported by volume.
Volume should be large when forming the left shoulder 1, as well as when forming the head 2, and when the price goes down at the right shoulder 4, but when forming the right shoulder the volume should be low 3. It is not.
Since May, the volume balance has been negative, i.e. high volume at the price bottom and low volume at the price peak.
At 794, there will be a significant break of 3%, especially if it is supported by high volume.
There is no significant break yet.
The object is heading towards 629.
An H&S formation is a reversal formation. NOVO has been in a bullish trend, according to MA. However, the price is now below SMA 200.
The price momentum indicators go from sell to buy within a month on Trading View.
The price is well below a red cloud in Ichimocu.
It is not possible to say now whether we will have a significant break down or whether the price will recover. The forecast will depend on this.
Fundamentally, analysts are predominantly positive about the stock.
Many companies would like to enter the obesity market, but there are far from good results in a phase 1 study to a finished drug, if it becomes a drug at all.
Disclaimer: I have a relatively large position in the stock, which I bought when the shares plunged during the covid19 epidemic. I have sold 1/4 share when the price had tripled, so I am thinking of sitting still now even in the face of the technical picture - I am long.
In the past, price has fluctuated between two pivot lines at times. Then I have swing traded NOVO.
NB: Remember you must do your own research and assessment before buying and selling.
NOVO - Short term targetSupport Resistance
Weekly support works
Wave
We expect a potential correction aligning with Fibonacci levels
RSI - No reversal signal yet
Daily - Oversold
Weekly - Oversold
MACD - No reversal signal yet
Daily - Sell histograms is growing
Weekly - Sell histograms is growing
Opening price 625
Take profit 1 660
Take Profit 2 692
Stop loss 584
Holy Cow, A lot of Big Option Purchases Coming In!First price target for January is $90 and it could happen soon.
Be careful as spike downs tend to have a lower low formed prior to reversal, this would create bullish divergence on RSI, MACD and more which is another to double down.
Options chain for calls expiring 1/10/2025 show the $90 strike has 1,522 calls bought on Friday at .87 per contract.
Not huge, bot overall the bias on NVO is buy the dip. long term target of well over 100
Novo Nordisk hit my target this week and I have started to buy The head and shoulders pattern successfully played out, with OMXCOP:NOVO_B reaching my full target at 670.
Check out my original post:
The stock experienced a significant drop, falling as much as 27% on the Friday before Christmas. This was triggered by test results for their obesity drug, CagriSema, which showed patient weight loss of 22.7% - below the anticipated 25%.
I believe this reaction is an overcorrection and have taken advantage of this rare opportunity to purchase OMXCOP:NOVO_B , first at 680 and again at 600. I now plan to hold patiently, expecting Novo Nordisk to reach new all-time highs in the coming years.
NOVO - 23% weight loss causes 23% price dropHead and Shoulders pattern complete, price drops from $148 to sub $80.
The drop from the head of the pattern is 23%, we should now be in Wave 5 where the final drop is 23%.
Cagrisema fat loss is 23% (below expectation of 25%). Wall St trims 23% off the stock price.
Largest sell volume seen in the stock, going into the oversold territory - 19 RSI on Daily, most oversold it's been in over a decade.
Possible support from the following confluence:
200 Week EMA, Golden Fibonacci pocket 0.618, possible end of 5th wave.
Time to DCA, from $78 down to $58, for a 3-5 year hold.
Not financial advice
Novo Nordisk (NVO): Beautiful Reversal Pattern is emerging Novo Nordisk price has charted a famous and beautiful reversal pattern - Head & Shoulders.
We have 3 peaks with the middle one the tallest also called Head.
The Right Shoulder inclines down so the magnitude of the bearish move is strong.
The dotted line between valleys of the Head is called a Neckline.
The bearish target for this reversal is located at the distance of Head's height subtracted from the breakdown point on the Neckline.
So, the target is at $89.
This area aligns very well with the bottom of last October and the peak of last May.
Novo completely oversold🐂 Trade Idea: Long - NOVO
🔥 Account Risk: 20.00%
📈 Recommended Product: Stock
🔍 Entry: +/- 750.00
🐿 DCA: No
😫 Stop-Loss: 675.00
🎯 Take-Profit #1: 1,000.00 (50%)
🎯 Trail Rest: Yes
🚨🚨🚨 Important: Don’t forget to always wait for strong confirmation once possible entry zone is reached. Trade ideas don’t work all the time no matter how good they look. Do not get a victim of FOMO, there is always another trade idea waiting. 🚨🚨🚨
If you like what you see don’t forget to leave a comment 💬 or smash that like ❤️ button!
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Novo Nordisk is completely oversold (in fear of RFK) and so is the rest of the Pharma sector as well. Nevertheless, Novo is still printing money and trial results for a new product should come in end 24 or beginning 25 for the oral version of the weight loss drug. The fear over political decisions in the US should be used to buy the Pharma sector. For me, it is Novo and Regeneron.
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Disclaimer & Disclosures pursuant to §34b WpHG
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NVO trade ideas long term...Only spent 5 min on this...but here is the level breakdown of todays move when seen on a more large scale of Fib Channels
NVO ...just so NO..vo Nordisk to drugsOnly spent 5 min on this...but here is the level breakdown of todays move and ones ahead...
NYSE:NVO , try to reduce bone density loss and 1.5x weight regain next time---or don't produce something that involves the patient just refraining from sugar...That too.
long term trendline for price action in next post
Can Market Turbulence Create Future Innovation?In a dramatic turn of events that sent shockwaves through the pharmaceutical industry, Novo Nordisk's recent setback with its experimental obesity drug CagriSema presents a fascinating case study in market resilience and scientific progress. The company's stock plummeted 24% after trial results showed a 22.7% weight reduction efficacy, falling short of the anticipated 25% target. Yet, beneath this apparent disappointment lies a deeper story of pharmaceutical innovation and market adaptation.
The obesity treatment landscape stands at a pivotal crossroads, with the market experiencing exponential growth from its modest beginnings to a staggering $24 billion industry in 2023. Novo Nordisk's journey, alongside competitor Eli Lilly, exemplifies how setbacks often catalyze breakthrough innovations. The CagriSema trial, involving 3,400 participants, represents a clinical study and a testament to the industry's commitment to addressing global health challenges.
Looking ahead, this moment of market recalibration might well be remembered as a turning point in the evolution of obesity treatment. With projections suggesting a potential $200 billion market by the early 2030s, the current turbulence could drive even greater innovation and competition. The fact that only 57% of trial participants reached the highest CagriSema dose points to untapped potential and future opportunities for optimization, suggesting that today's apparent setback might pave the way for tomorrow's breakthroughs.
NOVO - final pukeA very quick alert on the Novo crash underway. It looks like Cagrisema has failed to deliver the results it expected on the level of weight loss.
We are now down over 49% on the stock, hitting the 200 week EMA and the golden ratio Fibonacci level.
Is now a good time to buy the dip? If we can hold this level of support at around $80 I think this is a wonderful opportunity to get involved in this industry, where demand is outstripping supply.
Not financial advice
NOVO Up TrendTREND
We may be at the end of the correction, namely the 3 ABC waves within the downward (orange) channel.
It may form a reversal formation with the blue harmonic pattern.
At the same time, the TOBO formation will also be formed.
MA
In this case, the 100-day (turquoise) will have worked as support.
The last 100-day was seen in 2021.
Thus, the upward trend can continue without breaking the 20-day to 50-day.
NOVO Down TrendTREND
The red trend line from 2022 has been broken. It may be doing a pullback for confirmation.
It continues its movement within the orange channel that started in 2024. It may be the 3rd of the 5-wave.
The green trend line from 2021 is the first target before the purple main support.
The purple support formed in 2023 is the strongest level. It is also Fibo 0.618.
MA
20-day (Red), 50-day (Orange) is cutting down from the top.
100-day (Turquoise) has been working as support since November.
200-day (Blue) intersects with the weekly main support (Purple).
SUMMARY
It is in a downtrend in the weekly and a typical reversal pattern is not seen.
It may continue its movement in the direction of the blue arrow.
NVO Ozempic - retraced from $148 to $102 - read the notes.here is a link to a riview
NVO is Ozempic -Ozempic - retraced from $148 to $102 - and I bought the shares NVO, today Nov. 22, 2024 - Why?
November 22, 2024
Treating the entire USA population affected with type 2 Diabetes would cost $119 Billion USD. - not treating the population will costs $338 Billion in GDP losses. The answer is stupidly yes? must deliver Ozempic to all that need it.
IF I AM GOING TO ENDORSE SOMETHING THAT WORKS, IT WILL BE OZEMPIC. Period. No gimmicks, no images of ripped guys looking like wet chihuahuas, nothing like it—one injection in the belly once per week with a dosage pen, and you are done. After COVID, I became a whale, and now I have shed all those pounds gained from being cooped in for 2 years.Moderate exercise, once or twice per week, and Ozempic—that is it. The FUD about it that is being spread regarding weakness and intestinal paralysis is fake; none of it happened to me. I have nothing to gain by telling you this, except that I did buy the shares just now because they reached the Fib 61.8% retracement. I know this drug is effective and would be beneficial for many people who are morbidly obese in America because of food contamination, especially Crisco in most baking goods. So get healthy! Ozempic will boost your ability to make insulin by helping melt away internal fat surrounding your liver and pancreas, preventing it from contracting and expanding properly to make insulin. If you are diabetic type 2, if you lose weight to your BMI number, you will likely beat diabetes for good. Ozempic is a great biological technical innovation. We are past nature; if it were not for modern medicine, half of the world would be dead.
Why Ozempic is a Must Technological Innovation That Starts to Save Diabetics
Ozempic, containing the active ingredient semaglutide, represents a significant advancement in the management of type 2 diabetes. Its innovative mechanism not only helps control blood sugar levels but also addresses related health issues, making it a vital tool in diabetes care.
Global Impact of Type 2 Diabetes
Type 2 diabetes is a major health crisis worldwide. According to the International Diabetes Federation (IDF), approximately 537 million adults were living with diabetes in 2021, with this number expected to rise to 643 million by 2030. The disease is associated with severe complications, leading to significant mortality rates. In fact, diabetes and its complications account for an estimated 4.2 million deaths annually.
Lowering BMI and Restoring Insulin Production
Reducing body mass index (BMI) is crucial for improving the body's ability to regulate insulin production. Studies indicate that weight loss can enhance insulin sensitivity and restore proper pancreatic function. A lower BMI often correlates with better glycemic control, reducing the risk of diabetes-related complications. Research has shown that losing just5-10% of body weightcan lead to significant improvements in blood sugar levels and overall health.
The Need for Ozempic in Diabetes Management
While Ozempic has proven effective for many patients, there is still a substantial need for its widespread use to combat the growing epidemic of type 2 diabetes. Increased access to Ozempic could help millions manage their condition more effectively. The exact amount of Ozempic required to significantly curb the proliferation of type 2 diabetes is difficult to quantify, but expanding its availability and integrating it into treatment plans can make a substantial difference.
Economic Cost of Diabetes
The economic burden of diabetes on society is staggering. In the United States alone, the total estimated cost of diagnosed diabetes was$327 billion in 2017, which includes medical expenses and lost productivity. This figure continues to rise as more individuals are diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. The impact on GDP is profound, as healthcare costs associated with managing diabetes strain public health systems and reduce overall economic productivity.
Conclusion
Ozempic stands out as a revolutionary technological innovation that has the potential to save lives and improve the quality of life for those living with type 2 diabetes. By lowering BMI and enhancing insulin production, it addresses critical aspects of diabetes management. As we continue to face rising rates of this chronic condition, increasing access to effective treatments like Ozempic will be essential in mitigating its impact on individuals and society as a whole.
Your purchase of the stock NVO helps allocate resources more efficiently for this frm to grow and expand its reach and benefit to society. So when people ask you to invest responsible, you reply I do, I invest in things that are needed.
Recalculated Cost of Ozempic Treatment for Type 2 Diabetics in the USA
If we lower the cost of Ozempic to $330 per month, we can recalculate the total annual cost for treating all type 2 diabetics in the USA.
Estimating the Total Cost for All Type 2 Diabetics
Assuming there are approximately 30 million individuals with type 2 diabetes in the United States, the total annual cost can be calculated as follows:
Total Cost=Number of Patients×Annual Cost per Patient Total Cost=Number of Patients×Annual Cost per Patient
Total Cost=30,000,000×(330×12) = 30,000,000×3,960=118,800,000,000 Total Cost=30,000,000×(330×12)=30,000,000×3,960 = 118,800,000,000
Thus, the total estimated cost of Ozempic treatment for all type 2 diabetics in the USA would be around $119 billion annually.
Comparison with Economic Costs of Diabetes
Previously, we noted that the total estimated cost of diagnosed diabetes in the United States was approximately $327 billion in 2017. This figure encompasses medical expenses and lost productivity related to diabetes.
Conclusion: The Need for Continued Access to Ozempic
With the recalculated potential cost of providing Ozempic treatment to all type 2 diabetics at about $119 billion, this is significantly lower than the overall economic burden of diabetes.Given this context, it is crucial for the U.S. government to ensure that this critical therapy remains accessible to the entire population. Maintaining access to effective treatments like Ozempic is essential not only for improving health outcomes for individuals with diabetes but also for alleviating the broader economic impact associated with managing this chronic condition. Until comprehensive public health strategies can effectively address underlying issues such as food pollution and obesity, ensuring ongoing availability of Ozempic and similar therapies will be vital in combating type 2 diabetes in America.
You may also want to look into Crispr Therapeutics - this one is the next 500 Trillion company, it is like medicine pre-penicillin to now. Now we are going from antibiotic medicine to Gene Therapies tailored, new, effective, few collateral effects, and maybe even immortality. - and I bought the shares NVO, today Nov. 22, 2024 - Why?
Correction Over?Head and Shoulders pattern complete, we are 32% down from all time high.
We have retraced to the 0.5 Fib level and bounced at the key $100 level.
Trade entered with a tight stop loss, in case we lose that key $100 level.
The correction may be over in this top Pharma stock. Eli had terrible earnings but Novo looks more promising at this stage. Cagrisema phase 3 results due in the next 4 weeks.
Not financial advise, do what's best for you.
Novo Nordis Short
Shorting Novo Nordisk may be considered due to potential overvaluation, rising competition in diabetes and obesity markets, supply chain challenges, and risks from patent expirations. Regulatory hurdles, slower demand in key regions, and macroeconomic factors like healthcare budgets and inflation could further impact growth. However, thorough analysis is essential, as shorting carries high risk.
Revising the head and shoulders pattern on NOVOSince my previous analysis on Novo Nordisk OMXCOP:NOVO_B , the price has nearly reached the original target of 700.
However, I have made slight adjustments to the head and shoulders pattern, which has consequently led to a revised target at the value area low of the range from late 2023 at around 670.
At this point, I would not consider this an ideal time to initiate a short position on OMXCOP:NOVO_B . Instead, it appears to be more of a profit-taking opportunity for those who entered short positions near the levels indicated in my earlier post.
