NK225MC1! trade ideas
3 Press Low In To Channel Low Bear Failure PotentialSellers have been very strong on the drive down and now breaking lower again with a 3 press low is beginning to show signs of slowing. Each consecutive low is less distance than before and rounding off and it just so happens to be occurring at the channel lows. Buyers are under pressure here and this is a last ditch for them. A break below the low would be a potential reversal signal for 2 legs lower but, assuming bulls hold above the low (or don't allow it to break much), buyers have a great R:R shot at a long that could potentially turn in to a much longer term swing.
Elliott Wave View: Pullback in Nikkei Should ContinueElliott Wave View of Nikkei (NKD_F) suggests the Index ended the cycle from April 2 low as wave ((3)) at 23630 high. Currently, Index is doing a pullback in wave ((4)) to correct against that cycle. The correction is proposed to be unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave Structure. Down from wave ((3)) high, wave A ended at 22960 low. The bounce in wave B ended at 23325 high. Index then resumed lower and ended wave C at 22840 low. This completed wave (W) in higher degree.
Afterwards, Index bounced higher in wave (X) to correct against the cycle from September 3 high. The subdivision of the bounce unfolded as another double three correction. Wave W ended at 23275 high and wave X ended at 23040 low. Wave Y ended at 23310 high, which also completed wave (X) in higher degree. Since then, Index has resumed lower and broke below previous wave (W) low to confirm that next leg lower in (Y) has already started. The 100-161.8% extension of wave (W)-(X) where (Y) can potentially ends is at 22030-22520 area. If reached, that area should see a reaction for 3 waves bounce at least.
NK Wait: Be prepared for a down moveI am anticipating an ending diagonal for Nikkei. However, note that in the event of a strong impulse wave (up or down), we will have to re-look into how this chart will move.
Nikkei 225 FuturesTrading within an 8% range from its June peak. Nikkei 225 futures failed to form a new high this week.
MACD bullish crossover earlier in the week puts the histogram in the green...
Long at Nikkei! Banzai !! BanZaiNikkei 225 is gonna explode beyond 24,000 resistance level for a longer period perspective
Elliott Wave View: Nikkei (NKD_F) Extending HigherElliott Wave View in Nikkei Futures (NKD_F) suggests the Index has just broken above June 5 high, suggesting the cycle from March low remains alive and the Index has resumed higher. The break higher is likely still part of wave ((5)) of the same cycle from March low. Shorter cycle, 1 hour chart below shows pullback to 21705 ended wave (2). Up from there, the Index ended wave 1 at 22655 high. The internal subdivision of wave 1 unfolded as 5 waves impulse Elliott Wave Structure. Wave ((i)) of 1 ended at 22005 high and wave ((ii)) pullback ended at 21800 low. Rally higher in wave ((iii)) then ended at 22405 high, followed by wave ((iv)) pullback which ended at 22340 low. Wave ((v)) then extended higher and ended at 22655 high. Afterwards, the Index did a pullback in wave 2, which ended at 22205 low.
From there, the Index has extended higher in wave 3. Up from wave 2 low, wave ((i)) ended at 22535 high and wave ((ii)) dips ended at 22345 low. Index then extended higher in wave ((iii)) towards 22960 high. The pullback in wave ((iv)) ended at 22670 low. The index can still see another high before ending wave ((v)). This would end wave 3 in the higher degree. Index then could correct within wave 4 before resuming higher again. The latest rally has broken above previous wave 1 high to confirm that the leg higher is already in progress. While pullback stays above 22205 low, expect the dips in 3,7 or 11 swings to find support for more upside.
Elliott Wave View: Further Upside in NikkeiShort term Elliott Wave view of Nikkei (NKD_F) suggests that the rally from 5.14.2020 low is unfolding as a 5 waves impulsive Elliott Wave structure. Up from 5.14.2020 low, wave (1) ended at 20830 and pullback in wave (2) ended at 20247 as chart below shows. Internal of wave (2) unfolded as a double three (double zigzag). Down from wave (1) at 20830, Wave W ended at 20515 as a zigzag, wave X ended at 20685, and wave Y lower ended at 20245 as a zigzag.
Index then resumed higher in wave 3 which ended at 21730. Subdivision of wave 3 unfolded as another 5 waves in lesser degree. Up from wave (2) at 20247, wave 1 ended at 20550 and wave 2 ended at 20465. Wave 3 ended at 21370, wave 4 ended at 21150, and wave 5 of (3) ended at 21730. Pullback in wave (4) is proposed complete at 21410 and Index has resumed higher by breaking above wave (3) again. Near term, while pullback stays above wave (4) low at 21410, but more importantly above wave (2) low at 20247, expect Index to extend higher. As far as pivot at 20247 low stays intact, dips should find buyers in 3, 7, or 11 swing for further upside.
Long 6J or short NKD based on NKD price action and volumeNKD (CME NIKKEI Fututes) price is inversely correlated with the Yen.This is the opposite of the relationship with most currencies andthe equities market of the respective country. Volume has declined,and it's likely that it will push 6J (CME Yen Futures) between .0093300 and .0093600
