OSEBX trade ideas
Short the Oslo BoersMany bearish signals on the Oslo Boers right now-- at support on an ascending wedge, at neckline of head and shoulders (at a monthly lower high), top of h&s made an hourly double top against resistance that has been steeply rejected twice this year. NOKUSD is weakening temendously and maybe the European oil price cap is impacting the OBX's major holdings (Equinor, Frontline, DNO, etc.).
Breathe in, breathe out. Tradingchannels are a nice indication and tool to check for steam. Just by judging by the channel, looks like we have MAYBE one more day of fun before we see a retrace in the market. A break over, thats something else. Id say its more likely we see it retrace. The striped lines are key points of resistance. Not that I think we will see the two lowest ones, but nice to look out for, just in case.
Oslo Børs Goes Bear, but for how longAfter the V shape comeback Oslo Børs may gas out. Several indicators point in that direction. Oil seems to topped, dow jones topped and Nasdaq at all time high. Gas prices hit rock bottom and outlooks are grim. (Norwegian Børs rely a tad on oil and gas) Oslo børs now has been trading quite nicely in this channel looking on the daily. So I expect for this week and partly next some retrace. TA says about a 4% drop in total, over the next days but might be more. See best case scenario.
Potential target before buying inI'm just doodling here.
Even if OPEC gets a deal with russia, the corona virus gets stable and so on. The economic consequence will still take time to recover from.
Bankrupt business dont automatically go back to 100% engine speed just because money printing is going, OPEC gets their deal, Corona virus goes away.
Like 2008, the bubble continued to deflate long after the worst had happened.
OSEBX went down >60% from peak so I dont think a 50% is out of this world this time.
So far I've only bought some silver
Tried to short some bitcoin (failed)
and in the end I dont think me or anyone have any clue how this will play out. But I'm saving my FOMO card for later
Watch OSEBX in the next days to decide directionIf you are invested in OSEBX through index or stocks, watch the next days for a direction to form.
No sign of recovery of Oil prices and with an oncoming "recession" not looking good for Oil.
Will hold short position on OSEBX until either a clear trend is forming in either direction.
This is only my personal analysis and should NOT be taken as investment advice, i'm still learning and any feedback would be greatly appreciated.
Going to 5. this is to easy guys..going up to the 5 here as i draw the on the first osebx analysis. I am unshure if we are going upp to the double top again before the new bear market, or if it hitts the diagonal trend line for a turn. As we can see on the previous 5, the relevant trend line goes a little further down. here cince 2009 i have drawn i ntwo trend lines. including the middle one. The reason is that i see support there, even thought it is not the "main" trend. it is an inner trend if to say it that way. So.. if this inner trend has enough strengt to at all influence this volatile market i do not know. If not it will be found at the "roof" - the top of the double topp wich is extremely strong. Annother alternative is some quick downdays now, and the lower recistance main trend line will be recistance uppwards after a possible breakt throught. . i do not see this as verry likely right now when oil price and snp upp after osebx close today.
(Of course, like all my analysis tey are expecting no new news. this means that of course if something changes with the corona virus or with the oil price conflict, the analysisi has no worh no more and has to bee reedone. Be observant to this guys.. as it might allways come news after the analysis is published, which of course a cannot control or foresee.) with no new news.. this is with VERRY MUCH possibility how the index will move from now, whith the current situation at 10. march. .
This is why it is so easy to analyse the oslo stock exchange nowAs we can see.... ther is an EXTREEMLY CLEAR dobbelt top we have to do with. I discovered that allready in february, wich i was able to act on my self and sell out eraly. I allso hav an erlighet analysis of this at my profile.
- Brent crude now 35. At last time brent crude was at 35 was january 2016. then the price of osebx was at 514,65 .
- The january 2016 price was (not a random event), the same as the top of may 2008 sycle right before the financial crisis.
- I am followin ghte marcets close frm tic to tic. It is seariously much affected by the tecnical picture theese days, and the media who is withdrawing information for days, to the let eveything out in the weekend, to make big headlines and meida storms (to make more people read the news at ones with more attention). When corona came the media was on purpose holding back the big headlines, but when s&p500 hit that upper roof (sooport level) at the all time high. THEN SUDDENLY the market attended more attention and the media blew upp the headlines with information they had allready been sitting on for a long time. I saw this ass clearly as the day with my own eyes. A dcelay caused purely of tecnical pattern in snp + the following reelese of with - holded media information.
- About the corona virus i dont know... i calcuulated earligher that wil will in some time in mars-april have 720 deseased in norway, and then wee would se a stabelising. But this is verry unclear so it do not take a big part of my analysis. We se that the pattern on snp500 in 05-08 is the same as 14-20. Due to the expected snp downgoing it increases chanse of osebx down.
I expext osebx down to 515 due to the long upptrend, what i discussed over + fibonacci retracements opens for even further down movement than thiss. all the way to 0,786 zone at support level at 330 (A BIG FALL from todays prices in that case) but this is not a part of my analysis for now. For now, my goal is that 515 level. (to me,,, 70-80% chanse for that for that we se the 515 level). I will by funds at that level. If the price goes down to 330 i will put a loan on it (laverage) at 50% (1:1 rate loan and equity). if it moves even further down i will probably just sit. i will not laverage more than 50% equity balance (as for this analysis)
Please look at my other earligher analysis! manny has been corect, even thoguh some (verry few) of the lon position analysis has been slightly off due to the uppcoming of the corona virus.
