Our opinion on the current state of AMPLATS(AMS)Anglo American Platinum (AMS), or Amplats, is the second-largest platinum-producing company in the world (after Sibanye), producing a large portion of the world's platinum. It is owned 77,62% by Anglo American.
Amplats was one of the first platinum mining companies in South Africa to move away from expensive deep-level mining towards shallower, more mechanised mining. The company has reduced the number of mines it is operating from 18 to 7 over the past five years, decreased overheads by 50%, and its number of employees by 50%. This shift is now paying handsome dividends.
The Mogalakwena open-cast operation is a palladium-rich operation with costs in the lowest quartile in the platinum group metals (PGM) industry worldwide. A new project at Mogalakwena will see platinum production up by 250,000 ounces and palladium production up by 270,000 ounces. Amplats also recently bought out Glencore's 40,2% stake in their joint venture Mototolo mine and the adjacent Der Brochen property for R1,5bn. Mototolo is a highly mechanised shallow mine that can be extended into Der Brochen without putting in new surface infrastructure.
The platinum price is plagued by an effective recycling industry that produces about 2 million ounces a year by recovering from old auto catalysts. We believe AMS is the best of the PGM shares on the JSE - but it remains a commodity share and thus volatile and unpredictable.
As part of its plans to boost production at Mogalakwena, the company has plans to relocate 1,000 families of its employees, which could result in unrest. On 10th December 2021, the company announced a R3,9bn extension to the life of its Mototolo/De Brochen mines to beyond 30 years. On 15th February 2023, the company announced that CEO, Natascha Viljoen, would resign but would serve out her 12-month notice period.
In its results for the year to 31st December 2024, the company reported revenue down 13% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) down 40%. The rand basket price per PGM ounce fell by 13%, and costs per 3E ounce were down 13% in US dollars. The company said, "EBITDA of R19.8 billion, is 19% lower than the prior period, largely due to a ~13% decline in the realised ZAR PGM basket price and R3.5 billion of non-recurring costs owing to the recent operational and corporate restructuring, the demerger and losses from associates."
This share is a speculation on the international prices of the platinum group metals that it produces and hence very volatile. Technically, the share has been moving sideways since September 2023, mainly due to the challenges faced by the industry, including load-shedding and the falling prices that they are getting for their production.
On 23rd July 2024, *Business Day* reported that Amplats was considering listing on the London Stock Exchange (LSE).
ANGPY trade ideas
Our opinion on the current state of AMPLATS(AMS)Anglo American Platinum (AMS), or Amplats, is the second-largest platinum producer in the world (after Sibanye) and plays a key role in the platinum group metals (PGM) industry. The company is 77.62% owned by Anglo American and has been at the forefront of transitioning from deep-level mining to shallow, mechanized mining, which has significantly improved efficiency and reduced costs.
Strategic Developments & Operations
Over the past five years, Amplats has reduced its number of mines from 18 to 7, cut overheads by 50%, and halved its workforce. This restructuring has enhanced profitability, particularly through its Mogalakwena open-cast mine, a palladium-rich operation with some of the lowest costs in the industry worldwide.
A new project at Mogalakwena is set to increase platinum production by 250,000 ounces and palladium production by 270,000 ounces. Amplats also acquired Glencore’s 40.2% stake in the Mototolo mine and the adjacent Der Brochen property for R1.5 billion, enabling a cost-effective expansion without additional surface infrastructure.
However, platinum prices remain under pressure due to an effective recycling industry, which adds about 2 million ounces per year to the supply by recovering metal from old auto catalysts. Despite this, we believe Amplats remains the best of the PGM shares on the JSE, although it is highly volatile as a commodity stock.
Key Risks & Challenges
- As part of its Mogalakwena expansion, Amplats plans to relocate 1,000 families, which could lead to social unrest.
- Loadshedding and falling PGM prices continue to be significant headwinds.
- The company announced the retrenchment of 3,700 employees on 19th February 2023.
- On 23rd July 2024, Business Day reported that Amplats was considering listing on the London Stock Exchange (LSE).
Financial Performance
In its results for the six months to 30th June 2024, Amplats reported:
- Tonnes milled down 7%
- Refined PGM production up 5%
- Revenue down 19%
- Headline earnings down 18%
The company explained, "Realised PGM dollar basket price fell 24% to an average of US$1,442 per PGM ounce due to declining realised palladium and rhodium metal prices, which were 34% and 49% lower, respectively."
In its third-quarter update for 30th September 2024, Amplats reported:
- PGM production from own-managed mines down 9%
- PGM sales volumes up 16%
- Maintained 2024 production guidance at 3.3-3.7 million PGM ounces
- Increased refined production guidance to 3.7-3.9 million ounces
In a trading statement for the year to 31st December 2024, the company estimated HEPS would decline by 36%-46%, stating, "The decrease in earnings compared to 2023 is primarily due to a 13% decline in realised ZAR PGM prices. Most notably, palladium and rhodium realised US dollar prices decreased 24% and 30%, respectively."
Technical & Investment View
- The share price has been declining since March 2022, driven by loadshedding, weaker PGM prices, and industry challenges.
- Recently, it has moved sideways, indicating some stabilization but no clear upward trend yet.
- PGM prices remain under pressure, which could limit near-term upside.
Conclusion: Amplats remains a high-quality, but highly volatile commodity share. It is largely dependent on PGM prices, making it speculative. While long-term fundamentals remain strong, the current market conditions and price pressures make it risky in the short term. Investors should wait for a clear break above the downward trendline before considering an entry.
Our opinion on the current state of AMPLATS(AMS)Anglo American Platinum (AMS), commonly known as Amplats, is the world's second-largest platinum producer, after Sibanye, and plays a significant role in the platinum group metals (PGM) industry. Owned 77.62% by Anglo American, Amplats has undergone a significant transformation over the past few years, moving away from deep-level mining toward more efficient, mechanized operations. This shift has seen the company reduce its number of mines from 18 to 7 and cut overheads and employee numbers by 50%, making its operations more streamlined and cost-effective.
Amplats' Mogalakwena open-cast mine is a particularly standout operation due to its palladium-rich deposits and production costs, which are among the lowest in the global PGM industry. The company's ongoing projects at Mogalakwena aim to boost platinum production by 250,000 ounces and palladium production by 270,000 ounces. Additionally, Amplats acquired Glencore's 40.2% stake in their joint venture at the Mototolo mine and the adjacent Der Brochen property for R1.5 billion. The Mototolo operation is highly mechanized and shallow, allowing for efficient expansion into Der Brochen without the need for extensive new infrastructure.
Despite its successes, the platinum market faces challenges from the recycling industry, which recovers approximately 2 million ounces annually from old auto catalysts, contributing to downward pressure on prices. While Amplats is considered the best of the PGM shares on the JSE, it remains highly volatile due to its exposure to commodity price fluctuations.
In its plans to boost production at Mogalakwena, the company intends to relocate 1,000 families, which could lead to unrest among workers and communities. In December 2021, Amplats announced a R3.9 billion extension to the life of its Mototolo/De Brochen mines, projecting operations to continue beyond 30 years. The company also faced a significant leadership change with the resignation of CEO Natascha Viljoen in February 2023, although she will serve out her 12-month notice period.
Amplats' financial performance for the six months ending 30th June 2024 reflected challenging market conditions:
- Tonnes milled down 7%
- Production of refined PGMs up 5%
- Revenue down 19%
- Headline earnings down 18%
The company attributed this performance to the 24% decline in the PGM dollar basket price, driven by lower prices for palladium (down 34%) and rhodium (down 49%).
In an update for the third quarter to 30th September 2024, the company reported:
- PGM production from own-managed mines down 9%
- PGM sales volumes up 16%
- Production guidance for 2024 remained at 3.3-3.7 million PGM ounces, while refined production guidance was revised up to 3.7-3.9 million ounces.
The stock remains highly speculative and volatile, closely tied to international PGM prices. Technically, the share had been falling since March 2022 due to challenges like load shedding and declining PGM prices. However, a technical upward break through the long-term downward trendline occurred on 4th October 2024 at 66,766c. Since then, the share price has risen to 74,957c.
On 19th February 2023, Amplats announced potential retrenchments of 3,700 employees, and on 23rd July 2024, Business Day reported that Amplats was considering a listing on the London Stock Exchange (LSE). This potential move could increase its visibility and attractiveness to international investors, providing further opportunities for growth.
AMS.JSE Anglo American Platinum Prints a Cup & Handle.Anglo American Platinum Prints a Cup & Handle Pattern which is Bullish.
The Target Zone has been Project Up to show the Potential Upside.
Remember these Patterns are only on average about 75% correct, and need Patience and Conviction to play out.
As always, please get a few other outside Expert's Advice before taking Trade or Investment Decisions.
Should you appreciate my Chart Studies, Smash That Rocket Boost Button. It's Just a Click away.
Regards Graham.
Our opinion on the current state of AMPLATS(AMS)Anglo American Platinum (AMS), or Amplats, is the second largest platinum producing company in the world (after Sibanye), producing a large portion of the world's platinum. It is owned 77,62% by Anglo American. Amplats was one of the first platinum mining companies in South Africa to move away from expensive deep-level mining towards shallower, more mechanised mining. The company has reduced the number of mines it is operating from 18 to 7 over the past 5 years, decreased overheads by 50% and its number of employees by 50%. This shift is now paying handsome dividends.
The Mogalakwena open-cast operation is a palladium-rich operation with costs in the lowest quartile in the platinum group metals (PGM) industry world-wide. A new project at Mogalakwena will see platinum production up by 250 000 ounces and palladium production up by 270 000 ounces. Amplats also recently bought out Glencore's 40,2% stake in their joint venture Mototolo mine and the adjacent Der Brochen property for R1,5bn. Mototolo is a highly mechanised shallow mine which can be extended into Der Brochen without putting in new surface infrastructure. The platinum price is plagued by an effective re-cycling industry which produces about 2 million ounces a year by recovering from old auto catalysts. We believe AMS is the best of the PGM shares on the JSE - but it remains a commodity share and thus volatile and unpredictable.
As part of its plans to boost production at Mogalakwena, the company has plans to relocate 1000 families of its employees which could result in unrest. On 10th December 2021 the company announced a R3,9bn extension to the life of its Mototolo/De Brochen mines to beyond 30 years. On 15th February 2023 the company announced that CEO, Natascha Viljoen, would resign but would serve out her 12 month notice period.
In its results for the six months to 30th June 2024 the company reported tonnes milled down 7%, production of refined PGMs up 5% and revenue down 19%. Headline earnings fell 18% and the company said, "Realised PGM dollar basket price fell 24% to an average of US$1,442 per PGM ounce due to declining realised palladium and rhodium metal prices, which were 34% and 49% lower respectively."
This share is a speculation on the international prices of the platinum groups metals that it produces and hence very volatile. Technically, the share has been falling since March 2022. This mainly due to the challenges faced by the industry including loadshedding and the falling prices that they are getting for their production. We recommend that you wait for a clear upside break through the downward trendline before investigating further. On 19th February 2023 the company announced the possible retrenchment of 3700 employees.
Our opinion on the current state of AMPLATS(AMS)Anglo American Platinum (AMS), or Amplats, is the world's second-largest platinum-producing company (after Sibanye), responsible for a significant portion of global platinum production. Anglo American owns 77.62% of Amplats. The company was a pioneer in the South African platinum mining sector, shifting from expensive deep-level mining to shallower, more mechanised mining operations. Over the past five years, Amplats has reduced the number of its mines from 18 to 7, cut overheads by 50%, and halved its workforce. These strategic changes are now yielding substantial benefits.
The Mogalakwena open-cast operation, a palladium-rich mine, boasts some of the lowest costs in the platinum group metals (PGM) industry worldwide. A new project at Mogalakwena is set to increase platinum production by 250,000 ounces and palladium production by 270,000 ounces. Additionally, Amplats recently acquired Glencore's 40.2% stake in their joint venture Mototolo mine and the adjacent Der Brochen property for R1.5bn. The Mototolo mine is a highly mechanised shallow operation that can be extended into Der Brochen without the need for new surface infrastructure.
The platinum market faces challenges from an efficient recycling industry, which produces about 2 million ounces annually by recovering platinum from old auto catalysts. Despite these challenges, we believe AMS is the best PGM share on the JSE, although it remains a volatile and unpredictable commodity share.
As part of its expansion plans at Mogalakwena, Amplats plans to relocate 1,000 families of its employees, which could lead to potential unrest. On 10th December 2021, the company announced a R3.9bn extension to the life of its Mototolo/De Brochen mines, extending their operational life to beyond 30 years. On 15th February 2023, the company announced that CEO Natascha Viljoen would resign but would serve out her 12-month notice period.
In its results for the year to 31st December 2023, Amplats reported refined PGM production down 1%, with the rand basket price of PGMs per ounce down 26%. Revenue fell 24%, and headline earnings per share (HEPS) decreased by 71%. The company stated, "Refined production was 1% lower, primarily due to lower metal-in-concentrate production and the impact of Eskom load-curtailment of c.82,000 PGM ounces. This was offset by the release of concentrate stocks. Sales volumes increased by 2% due to the drawdown in refined stock. Our realised dollar basket price fell by 35% in 2023 to $1,657 per PGM ounce - the lowest level since 2019."
This share is a speculation on the international prices of the platinum group metals it produces and is hence very volatile. In an update for the three months to 31st March 2024, Amplats reported PGM production down 7% and PGM sales volumes unchanged. In a trading statement for the six months to 30th June 2024, the company estimated that HEPS would be between 15% and 25% lower. The company stated, "Earnings have decreased for the year largely due to a 24% lower realised ZAR PGM basket price relative to H1 2023."
Technically, the share has been falling since March 2022, mainly due to industry challenges including loadshedding and falling prices for their production. We recommend waiting for a clear upside break through the downward trendline before investigating further. On 19th February 2023, the company announced the possible retrenchment of 3,700 employees.
AMS Seeking Long-term LowAngloplat chart shows that price is in long-term decline and we are getting close the COVID low price. Price action has respected the Pitchfork and we see an area where there will be expected to be strong support, the intersection of the Pitchfork support and the horizontal support line. Before we get there we might find a turning point where the lowest price of the COVID low closed.
The blue trendline is the line defining the weekly low, this we know when price close above this line and the 10 week moving average, whereas the green trendline represents the yearly low price.
$JSEAMS - Anglo Platinum: 58007 Invalidated, Now What?See link below for previous analysis.
Anglo Platinum bulls could not sustain their bid above 58007 cps and the stock recently broke below this key level thereby invalidating the view that five wave down from 178433 cps are done.
At this stage, i will give the market time to give more data before updating the wave count. Until then, I sit on my hands on Anglo Platinum.
Our opinion on the current state of AMPLATS(AMS)Anglo American Platinum (Amplats or AMS) stands as the second-largest platinum producer globally, under the majority ownership (77.62%) of Anglo American. In recent years, Amplats has strategically shifted from deep-level mining to more economical and mechanized methods, significantly reducing its operational footprint from 18 mines to 7. This transition has notably cut overhead costs and the workforce by 50%, enhancing operational efficiency and profitability.
Amplats' flagship Mogalakwena operation, known for its palladium-rich deposits, operates within the lowest cost quartile of the platinum group metals (PGM) industry worldwide. A planned expansion at this site is expected to significantly increase platinum and palladium output, reinforcing the company's strong position in the PGM market.
Additionally, Amplats has consolidated its mining interests by acquiring Glencore’s 40.2% stake in the Mototolo mine and the adjacent Der Brochen property for R1.5 billion. This acquisition allows Amplats to expand the Mototolo mine into Der Brochen without additional surface infrastructure, optimizing production and resource use.
However, the platinum industry faces challenges from an effective recycling industry, which recovers approximately 2 million ounces annually from old auto catalysts, potentially impacting demand for newly mined platinum. Despite this, Amplats remains a leading choice among PGM shares on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange (JSE), though it is subject to the inherent volatility and unpredictability of commodity stocks.
In December 2021, Amplats announced a significant R3.9 billion investment to extend the life of the Mototolo/De Brochen mines beyond 30 years, underscoring its commitment to long-term production sustainability. However, the company faces potential unrest with plans to relocate 1,000 families to boost production at Mogalakwena, highlighting the social challenges associated with mining operations.
Financially, the year ending 31st December 2023 was challenging for Amplats. The company reported a slight decrease in refined PGM production and a significant 26% drop in the rand basket price per ounce, contributing to a 24% decline in revenue and a 71% fall in headline earnings per share (HEPS). Factors such as Eskom's load curtailment adversely impacted production, although this was partially offset by releasing concentrate stocks.
Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2024, PGM production decreased by 7%, while sales volumes remained unchanged, indicating ongoing operational challenges. Amplats continues to face industry-wide issues such as load shedding and declining commodity prices, which have pressured the share price since March 2022.
Given these dynamics, potential investors should approach Amplats with caution. The company's performance and stock price are heavily influenced by fluctuating international prices for PGMs and operational challenges. Investors are advised to look for a clear upward trend before considering entry, as indicated by the recent suggestion to watch for a break through the downward trendline for more favorable investment conditions. Additionally, the announced potential retrenchment of 3,700 employees in February 2023 could further affect the company’s operations and stock performance.
Anglo American Plats rare metal and rare formation showing upsidBroadening Formation (Vuvuzela) and W Formation is forming on AngloPlats.
We are seeing synergy with the upside with the platinum price and platinum stocks.
I guess no suprise knowing they work in tandem with each other.
Also, there is a good chanc eof upside with the price above both:
Price>20 and Price>200
Wait for break above the necklines and we could get a Target of R1,001
Moving onto the fundamentals:
The increase in Anglo American Platinum's stock price in 2024 can be connected to the broader market dynamics affecting platinum prices.
Factors like a global supply deficit, driven by production challenges and rising demand from sectors such as automotive and green technologies, contribute to the metal's price increase.
As Anglo American Platinum is a major producer of platinum, these market conditions likely positively impact the company's stock price by enhancing profitability prospects due to higher platinum prices.
Our opinion on the current state of AMSAnglo American Platinum (Amplats), recognized as the second-largest platinum producer globally, falls under the substantial ownership of Anglo American with a 77.62% stake. The company has been at the forefront of transforming platinum mining in South Africa, shifting from deep-level mining to shallower, more mechanized operations. This strategic pivot has significantly reduced the number of mines from 18 to 7 over the last five years, alongside a 50% reduction in both overheads and workforce, enhancing efficiency and profitability.
Amplats' Mogalakwena operation, known for its palladium-rich deposits, operates within the lowest cost quartile of the platinum group metals (PGM) industry worldwide. The company's investment in expanding this mine is expected to significantly increase platinum and palladium production. Furthermore, Amplats' acquisition of Glencore's stake in the Mototolo joint venture and the adjacent Der Brochen property underscores its commitment to growth and operational optimization.
Despite the advancements and strategic operations, the platinum industry faces challenges from an effective recycling industry that recovers approximately 2 million ounces annually from old auto catalysts. These dynamics contribute to the volatility and unpredictability of PGM shares, with Amplats being no exception.
Recent developments include plans to relocate 1,000 families to facilitate production expansion at Mogalakwena, the extension of the life of the Mototolo/De Brochen mines, and the resignation of CEO Natascha Viljoen, set to serve a 12-month notice period. For the year ending on 31st December 2023, Amplats reported a slight decrease in refined PGM production and a significant drop in the rand basket price per ounce, leading to a 24% reduction in revenue and a 71% fall in HEPS. These results reflect the broader challenges facing the industry, including Eskom load curtailment and declining PGM prices.
Given the speculative nature of investments in PGM shares due to fluctuations in international metal prices and industry challenges such as load shedding, potential investors are advised to exercise caution. The recommendation is to wait for a clear upward trend before considering investment, especially in light of the share's performance decline since March 2022 and the recent announcement regarding potential employee retrenchments.
Our opinion on the current state of AMSAnglo American Platinum (AMS), also known as Amplats, stands as the world's second-largest platinum producer, trailing only Sibanye, and it generates a significant portion of the global platinum supply. Owned 77.62% by Anglo American, Amplats has pioneered a shift from deep-level mining to shallower, more mechanized operations in South Africa. Over the past five years, the company has streamlined its operations from 18 mines to just 7, halved its overheads, and reduced its workforce by 50%, a transformation that has yielded considerable financial benefits. The Mogalakwena open-cast operation, notable for its palladium-rich deposits and low production costs, stands in the industry's lowest cost quartile worldwide. An upcoming project at Mogalakwena is set to increase platinum and palladium production significantly.
Further expanding its operations, Amplats acquired Glencore's 40.2% interest in the Mototolo mine and the adjacent Der Brochen property for R1.5 billion, enhancing its mechanized mining capabilities and allowing for the expansion of the Mototolo mine without new surface infrastructure. However, the platinum market faces challenges from a robust recycling industry, which recovers around 2 million ounces annually from old auto catalysts, influencing platinum prices.
Despite being considered the premier choice among platinum group metals (PGM) shares on the Johannesburg Stock Exchange, AMS's value remains subject to the inherent volatility and unpredictability of commodity shares. The company's initiative to relocate 1,000 employee families to facilitate production at Mogalakwena could potentially lead to unrest. On 10th December 2021, Amplats announced a significant R3.9 billion extension to extend the life of the Mototolo/De Brochen mines beyond three decades.
For the six months ending 30th June 2023, Amplats reported a 24% decrease in revenue and a 71% drop in headline earnings per share (HEPS), with both rand and US dollar prices of PGMs falling significantly. The production report for the quarter ending 30th September 2023 showed a slight decrease in PGM production but an increase in sales volumes. The company maintains its production guidance for 2023 but anticipates unit costs to be at the higher end of its forecasted range.
Amplats' share price has been declining since March 2022, impacted by industry-wide challenges such as loadshedding and falling product prices. The potential recession could further reduce demand for auto catalysts and PGM prices. Amidst these challenges, Amplats faced a legal dispute with the Zimbabwean government over royalties at its Unki mine, which it is contesting. Additionally, on 15th February 2023, the company announced the resignation of CEO Natascha Viljoen, who will serve out her 12-month notice period. A trading statement for the year ending 31st December 2023 projected a significant decrease in HEPS, largely attributed to a 35% reduction in the realized US dollar PGM basket price compared to the previous year. As such, investing in AMS shares is speculative, dependent on the fluctuating international prices of the platinum group metals it produces, highlighting its volatility.
$JSEAMS - Anglo Platinum: Bullish As Long As 58007 Holds FirmSee link below for previous update.
After a massive 78% plunge from the all time high of 267538 cps to 58007 cps, AMS has seen buyers get in the stock.
The move up from 58007 has yet to trace a five wave advance in an impulse or leading diagonal so it is still premature to say a bottom is in though the bear wave count looks complete.
I will maintain a bullish stance a long as 58007 holds
$JSEAMS - Anglo Plat: Is A Bottom In At 58007 cps?See link below for previous update.
This is a question I asked before when the stock caught a bid at 79400.
What has transpired since is that wave 5 of (C) unfolded as a more complex and deeper impulse which satisfies five waves down from 120747 to 58007.
Price seems to be forming a base above 58007 which is the invalidation level of the bullish outlook.
What is also encouraging is the MACD/price convergence between the wave 3 and wave 5 lows which is a bullish signal of waning selling momentum.
Our opinion on the current state of AMSAnglo American Platinum (AMS), or Amplats, is the second largest platinum producing company in the world (after Sibanye), producing a large portion of the world's platinum. It is owned 77,62% by Anglo American. Amplats was one of the first platinum mining companies in South Africa to move away from expensive deep-level mining towards shallower, more mechanised mining. The company has reduced the number of mines it is operating from 18 to 7 over the past 5 years, decreased overheads by 50% and its number of employees by 50%. This shift is now paying handsome dividends. The Mogalakwena open-cast operation is a palladium-rich operation with costs in the lowest quartile in the platinum group metals (PGM) industry world-wide. A new project at Mogalakwena will see platinum production up by 250 000 ounces and palladium production up by 270 000 ounces. Amplats also recently bought out Glencore's 40,2% stake in their joint venture Mototolo mine and the adjacent Der Brochen property for R1,5bn. Mototolo is a highly mechanised shallow mine which can be extended into Der Brochen without putting in new surface infrastructure. The platinum price is plagued by an effective re-cycling industry which produces about 2 million ounces a year by recovering from old auto catalysts. We believe AMS is the best of the PGM shares on the JSE - but it remains a commodity share and thus volatile and unpredictable. As part of its plans to boost production at Mogalakwena, the company has plans to relocate 1000 families of its employees which could result in unrest. On 10th December 2021 the company announced a R3,9bn extension to the life of its Mototolo/De Brochen mines to beyond 30 years. In its results for the six months to 30th June 2023 the company reported revenue down 24% and headline earnings per share (HEPS) down 71%. The rand price of PGMs was down 15% and the US dollar price fell by 29%. The company said, "Total PGM production from own-managed mines and owned volume from joint operations decreased by 8%, primarily due to expected lower grade at Mogalakwena". In a production report for the 3 months to 30th September 2023 the company reported PGM production down 2% and sales volumes up 2%. The company said, "Guidance for 2023 - Metal-in-concentrate PGM production and refined production guidance for 2023 is unchanged at 3.6-4.0 million ounces. Unit cost per PGM ounce produced is anticipated to be at the upper end of the range of R16,800 - R17,800 per PGM ounce produced". Technically, the share has been falling since March 2022. This mainly due to the challenges faced by the industry including loadshedding and the falling prices that they are getting for their production. As and when the world economy moves into recession, the demand for auto catalysts will decline and the price of PGMs will continue to fall. On 15th September 2022 Business Day reported that the Zimbabwean government was attempting to garnish $24m from Amplats in a dispute over royalties at its Unki mine. Amplats is contesting the garnishee order. On 15th February 2023 the company announced that CEO, Natascha Viljoen, would resign but would serve out her 12 month notice period. This share is a speculation on the international prices of the platinum groups metals that it produces.
AMS weekly chart Long IdeaWeekly Long idea
Anglo American Platinum since 2009 seems to show a pattern that it bottoms out of its bear market once prices have dropped 65%-75% from its previous All time highs,
the same scenario is playing out now and this could be a good long term hold off current levels
entry : R692.00
stop loss : R400.00
target : R3335.00
$JSEAMS - Anglo Platinum: Is A Bottom In At 79400?The last update on Anglo Platinum was on 22.06.2023, link below.
The stock has traded as forecasted and wave 5 of (C) could be complete at 79400.
What is further encouraging is the MACD/price convergence between wave 3 and 5.
It is still early days but above 79400 I will remain bullish until the market proves me wrong.
ANGLO PLAT - AnalysisOne of the platinum stocks that has been severely beaten down form the swing highs (-62%).
Its currently working on its 3rd leg down and target zone remains R860-R790 failing which the gate to R626 opens.
RSI is now in deep oversold territory. I will be watching closely to see how price action develops over the next few sessions.
Traders use the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to assess momentum and overbought/oversold conditions. An RSI above 70 suggests overbought, indicating a potential reversal. RSI below 30 indicates oversold, signaling a buying opportunity. Divergences between price and RSI can indicate trend reversals. RSI works best with other indicators and considering timeframe and context for accurate trading decisions.
Angloplatinum (AMS): An Attractive LongAMS price has found itself in a rising wedge defined by pink resistance and black support, a break of the black line validates the wedge & guides price decline.
The blue line strictly defines the inclining trendline of a daily cycle which price must break enroute to confirm a cycle low, the black line can also define a cycle only if price fails to reach the blue line. Ideally price must go lower than R923.03.
The green line defines the long cycle confirmation by closing above this line on monthly basis it means higher prices for longer. We watch the bearish wedge in the meantime to see if we get ideal setup for a long position with great reward, the dotted green line seems to suggest we will not fill the wedge before breaking down.
$JSEAMS - Anglo Plat: In The Fifth And Final WaveThe last update on Anglo Plat was on 19.04.2023, link below.
The stock has traded as forecasted and wave 4 terminated at 120747 and price is now in wave 5 of (C).
As to how much lower price can go is anyone's guess but a break back above 120747 would be a good signal that the bear is over.
At this stage it is a bit late to short so I will sit on my hands and look for reversal patterns in price.
Consolidation breakoutJSE:AMS has broken out of a sideways consolidation zone that it has been trading in since mid April. With today's price action so far our order to go short has been triggered. We are looking at a target all the way down at the 650 level, but will adjust according to the price action as it goes down.