BABAF trade ideas
The amazing Sin-Wave Pattern of BABA chartcyclical and seasonal patterns are recurring fluctuations observed in time series data like stock prices, but they differ in some key aspects:
Periodicity:
Seasonality: Occurs at a fixed and known period, usually related to the calendar year. Common examples include monthly, quarterly, or yearly fluctuations.
Cycles: Have an unfixed and unknown period. Their length can vary significantly, and the time between peaks and troughs can be irregular. The "business cycle" is a classic example, lasting several years with no set duration.
Predictability:
Seasonality: Generally more predictable due to their fixed periodicity. Once the seasonal pattern is identified, future fluctuations can be anticipated with greater accuracy.
Cycles: More difficult to predict due to their variable frequency and length. Identifying future cycles and their duration involves complex analysis and often remains uncertain.
Magnitude:
Seasonality: Fluctuations often follow a consistent range or pattern within a single year.
Cycles: Fluctuations can be highly variable in magnitude, with peaks and troughs significantly different in intensity.
Examples:
Seasonality: Ice cream sales increase in summer and decrease in winter. Tourism revenue peaks during holiday seasons and dips in off-seasons.
Cycles: The business cycle with periods of economic expansion and contraction. Supply chain disruptions causing periodic shortages and price hikes in specific sectors.
Combined effects:
Both seasonality and cycles can exist within the same data. For instance, ice cream sales might exhibit a yearly seasonality within the larger, multi-year economic cycle.
Analysis and modeling:
Different statistical techniques are used for analyzing and modeling seasonal and cyclical patterns. Seasonality can be addressed with decomposition methods, while analyzing cycles often involves advanced time series forecasting models.
Impact on decision-making:
Understanding both seasonality and cycles is crucial for businesses and investors. Companies can anticipate demand fluctuations and adjust production or inventory accordingly. Investors can use cyclical trends to inform entry and exit points in the market.
Remember, no single pattern perfectly captures market behavior. A comprehensive understanding of the underlying factors and a combination of analytical approaches are crucial for making informed decisions based on both seasonal and cyclical variations.
Alibaba - Buy The DipHello Traders, welcome to today's analysis of Alibaba.
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Explanation of my video analysis:
Starting in 2016 Alibaba created a pretty obvious higher timeframe bullish reversal which was followed by a crazy bullrun on Alibaba stock. In 2021 Alibaba broke below a major bullish trendline and dropped more than -70%. If we see another bullish reversal at the $65 level and a break above the trendline mentioned in the analysis, I am looking for bullish trading setups.
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I will only take a trade if all the rules of my strategy are satisfied.
Let me know in the comment section below if you have any questions.
Keep your long term vision.
Jack Ma and Joe Tsai Signal Confidence with $200 Million BuyAlibaba's Rebound:
Alibaba Group Holding Ltd. has witnessed a significant boost in its stock value following reports that co-founder Jack Ma and Chairman Joe Tsai have collectively invested $200 million in the company's shares. This strategic move by the visionary leaders has caught the attention of investors and analysts alike, signaling renewed confidence in the e-commerce giant.
Background:
Alibaba's US-traded shares experienced an impressive 8.6% surge in New York, marking the most substantial intraday increase since last July. The company had previously faced a challenging period, with its stock declining by 43% over the past 12 months, losing ground to formidable Chinese competitors like Tencent Holdings Ltd. and PDD Holdings Inc.
Insider Buying Signals Optimism:
Jack Ma and Joe Tsai's decision to buy shares during a period of decline reflects their firm belief in Alibaba's intrinsic value. This move is particularly noteworthy given Ma's recent criticism of the company's trajectory, urging internal corrections and acknowledging the success of rivals like PDD.
Tsai's Blue Pool Management family investment vehicle made a bold statement with the purchase of almost 2 million Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) shares, valued at approximately $152 million in the fourth quarter. Notably, this marks the first time Tsai's fund has acquired Alibaba shares since at least the last quarter of 2017, as indicated by regulatory filings.
Jack Ma's Return to Investing:
Jack Ma, who had been gradually selling off his Alibaba shares in recent years, made a notable comeback to the buying table by investing $50 million in the company's stock during the quarter. Ma's stake in Alibaba had previously dipped below 5%, and his decision to reinvest suggests a rekindled belief in the company's potential for resurgence.
Market Reaction and Business Overhaul:
The market's positive response to the insider buying spree reflects investor optimism and confidence in Alibaba's future prospects. Despite challenges, Alibaba is currently valued at around $175 billion.
Alibaba is currently undergoing a significant overhaul, abandoning plans to spin off its cloud business due to uncertainties stemming from U.S. export curbs on AI technology. This strategic shift in the company's structure comes as it faces fierce competition from Pinduoduo and contends with a slower-than-expected retail recovery post-pandemic.
Conclusion:
Jack Ma and Joe Tsai's substantial investment in Alibaba speaks volumes about their unwavering belief in the company's potential for recovery and growth. As Alibaba ( NYSE:BABA ) navigates a transformative period, investors are likely to closely watch the implementation of its new business strategies and the impact of these insider purchases on the company's future trajectory. The duo's confidence may serve as a beacon of hope for Alibaba, inspiring a renewed sense of trust among stakeholders and potentially signaling brighter days ahead for the e-commerce giant.
BABA - Chinese Government is using Harmonic Patterns- Today Bloomberg wrote of a huge cash to be injected in the Chinese mainland stock market - $278 B
- they must have noticed that there is a HAS and Gartey pattern on BABA W1 chart and decided to do it right now
- so... shall we?
$BABA Alibaba Parallel Down TrendNYSE:BABA Alibaba Parallel Down Trend continues, below the 50 day moving average. BABA needs to consolidate and break the down trend before it is safe to inter a long position.
BABA Sell SignalBABA bounced back toward the 50-day MA, but it was too weak to break it, signaling there is no momentum in this move. In the last several days, and today also, BABA formed a lower high and lower low, signaling a new downtrend.
Furthermore, BABA dropped out of the bear flag, signaling it is going down again. Sell, sell, sell. RSI did recover nicely and is now in the middle, while MACD is already pointing down, signaling more pain in front of the bulls.
It is very likely BABA will drop into the support box of 60-66 and will find long-term support in this area. This area has been a support since 2016, last year, and could or should act as support yet again.
There is almost no chance for bulls to recover from this situation, especially as China is in a huge economic problem, while at the same moment, the USA stock market is at its extreme and in overbought territory.
For bulls, their chance is that BABA must close above the 75.20-75.5 area today to avoid a lower low and to stay inside the bear flag and start to move up as soon as possible with huge volume.
It is almost certain I'll be under attack now, but this is a game of odds and probabilities and is not a game of being in love with a stock or any other asset. Profitable traders trade according to their own trading rules, while others trade according to their fear and greed.
Good luck to all.
$BABA what a strong bounce!NYSE:BABA The stock is trading inside a descending channel, and last Friday's candle with the increased volume showed a strong bounce from the 3.618 Fib extension.
The Accumulation Distribution, MACD, and RSI all show bullish divergence, meaning accumulation is happening underneath while the price declined.
The weekly candle also printed a hammer candle, which means if the price can close above $70.50, it can see further gains.
Here are my upside targets:
$73
$76
$80
$85
Downside Risk:
$63
I post detailed technical analysis of stocks with targets. If you find my analysis helpful, please don't forget to give me a follow.
Navigating Alibaba's TurbulenceAlibaba Group Holding Limited ( NYSE:BABA ), a behemoth in the Chinese e-commerce and technology landscape, has recently faced tumultuous times, and investors find themselves at a crossroads.
The Current Landscape:
Alibaba, often referred to as "China's Amazon," has witnessed a significant downturn, with its stock plunging 39% over the past year. The broader concerns surrounding U.S.-listed Chinese stocks, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions and regulatory challenges, have cast a shadow over Alibaba and its peers. The Invesco Golden Dragon China ETF, reflecting the performance of Chinese stocks listed in the U.S., has seen a notable decline of 23% in the last year.
Amidst the storm, the intriguing question arises: Does Alibaba's current valuation, trading at a Price/Earnings ratio of 10, present an irresistible opportunity or a potential pitfall?
The Bull Case and its Obstacles:
Previously, Alibaba's ambitious plan to spin off six of its business units held promise for unlocking shareholder value. However, the cancellation of the spinoff of its cloud business, coupled with the halt of plans for its Freshippo grocery retail chain, has injected a dose of uncertainty. The announcement led to a sharp decline in Alibaba's stock in November, emphasizing the significant hurdles posed by expanded U.S. restrictions on exports of computer chips.
The Journey Ahead:
As investors weigh the potential rewards against the risks, a careful examination of Alibaba's long-term performance offers valuable insights. The stock has experienced a staggering 71% decline over the past three years, remaining down 53% over the last five years and off 19% since September 2014.
Strategic Decisions and the Road to Recovery:
Alibaba's strategic decisions, particularly the cancellation of key spinoffs, warrant cautious consideration. The wait-and-see approach suggested by analysts underscores the importance of clarity around China's economic recovery and resolution of other China-related issues.
Conclusion:
Alibaba's journey through the volatile landscape of U.S.-China relations and regulatory challenges presents both risks and opportunities. As investors grapple with the decision of whether to buy, sell, or hold Alibaba stock, a nuanced understanding of the company's strategic moves, the broader economic context, and the wisdom encapsulated in analyst recommendations is essential. The path ahead for Alibaba is uncertain, but for investors willing to weather the storm, the potential rewards may be substantial.
$BABA - Falling knife or catching a bottomNYSE:BABA Boy! It sure give the bulls a feeling of catching a falling knife. I remain bullish.
The company seems to be not doing aggressive buy backs as the fall is making it quite obvious.
In terms of technicals, the fib is so far providing a support. If $67 fails, $63 is next. The bulls need to see the stock close above $73 to be reclaim momentum.
BABAVideoAnalysis. Have we bottomed or heading to $50.
Please let me know your thoughts about this stock.
Thanks BigMike
BABA: When to buy? Here is the TrendCloud Trading Analysis of BABA.
If you are looking to be a buyer and accumulate this stock then here is an edge you can use.
All 3 charts are in a downtrend and momentum is also down. This is very powerful and we can not start buying yet.
Take a look at the demand zone coming up on the daily chart.
We can look for trend reversal patterns on the 15 minute chart inside of the Daily demand zone.
BABA building a potentially bullish setupThe China tech sector is looking was oversold and due for a sizeable rebound soon.
Alibaba (BABA), among others, seems near to complete its corrective B wave and start a new upleg.
Only a break below last year's low would invalidate this view.
BABAI like Alibaba for the long term.
There are some concerns with China at the moment, but time will probably favor this company.
ALIBABA The fall of a former giant continues.Alibaba (BABA) has been trading within a Channel Down since the July 31 2023 High. The 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) has been acting as the basic Resistance while a truly sustainable bullish trend can technically exist only above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).
Until then every 1D MA50 rejection such as December 28, is a Lower High on the Channel Down and a sell opportunity. Every Lower Low has been greater in decline % terms, the latest was 20.30% so we can see a Lower Low around 62.00 before a rebound, buy we will buy if contact with the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Channel Down is made earlier. The Target will be +11.00% from that point.
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BABA - Alibaba long positionAround 60 (60.2) is a good level for buying, targeting aroun 80$
lets wait and take long position
$BABA Alibaba. Kissing this one goodbyeTwo rules:
1.Don't lose money
2. Don't forget rule one
This share is undervalued - Check
Softbank is gradually reducing their large stake - Check
This share had lost momentum to the upside - Check
Break below wedge for a new 52 week low - Check
$BABA the fallen GiantI can't stop thinking of NYSE:BABA despite the recent uncertainties surrounding China related stocks. A painful lesson that I had learned during Covid period was that China stocks are un-investable, and I learned that through $SE. Even though NYSE:SE is not directly related to China, but for some reason due to Tencent being one of the major shareholder for NYSE:SE , I had an unrealized loss of 50% as of today :(
I still believe in NYSE:SE , and I have my own reasons. NYSE:SE is my second largest stock in my investing portfolio, and I am currently looking to slowly collect more NYSE:BABA shares.
Truth be told, the share price is too cheap for NYSE:BABA to be currently valued at roughly $70 per share. Based on my intrinsic value, NYSE:BABA should be easily at least $150-$180 per share, a potential upside of 114%-157%.
However, a dilemma that I currently have as of now is that, should I invest or trade NYSE:BABA ? Current share price of $70 promise a very low downside with a huge upside potential. All eyes would be on the 14th National People's Congress (NPC) in Beijing on 5 March 2024 whereby they will be expected to discuss the nation's crucial economic and political issues.
To me, I would give them a benefit of doubt for one last time to prove me wrong that China stocks are un-investable, I will gradually collect more NYSE:BABA shares for the price around $70-$72 while I can and I believe the fallen Giant will emerge stronger again one day.
BABA AnalysisPrice played out nicely as analyzed last week, giving us a -4.96% move to the downside before the bullish retracement. No changes to my expectations, I'm expecting price to continue lower to take out the clean lows at 70.08 and mitigate the bullish order block below before continuing higher.
BABA long trade ideaHigh probability trade with a good risk to reward ratio. You can aim for more and I might drag the TP higher if things go as planned
