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BABAF trade ideas

Alibaba (BABA, BUY) Solid F4Q; Now is the Inflection Point We are upgrading our rating from HOLD to BUY and maintain our PT of $130 as F4Q results beat estimates and we see F1Q (June quarter) as the long-awaited inflection point for the company. CMR was flat y/y in F4Q (vs. -1% in Dec. quarter), despite a low-single-digit decline in GMV due to disruptions in supply chain and logistics in March. Cloud revenue grew 12% y/y, decelerating 8pts from F3Q due to macro weakness and COVID. Global AACs reached 1.31B, adding 30M sequentially, with 1B from China. Mgmt. indicates that June quarter will be more challenging as a result of COVID resurgence and lockdowns. In April, total revenue declined low-single-digit;China retail marketplace GMV declined low-teens due to supply chain and logistics disruptions, with May improving but still not fully recovered. Given the macro uncertainty, BABA is not providing revenue guidance for FY23. Repurchased 17.8M ADSs for $2.0B during the quarter. Despite the more challenging June quarter, we are upgrading BABA to BUY as we believe both revenue and profitability will bottom out and hit a long-awaited inflection point in the quarter. With government's stimulus policies kicking in and an easier comp, BABA's revenue growth and margin should start to improve in the 2H. In addition, BABA is trading at 11x CY23E earnings, significantly lower than the fiveyear-average of 22x. Although the stock's growth thesis has been muted since 2021, we see positive earnings revisions and valuation improvement in the coming quarters. NYSE:BABA
NYSE:BABA
by TigerBrokers
Channel DownBABA appears to have fallen from a Head and Shoulders pattern quite a while back and has been in a long channel down. The head and shoulders is easier viewed on a weekly or monthly chart (posted below). The Head and shoulders top is a large structure and price has hit the 100% fall mark and continued down to the 1.113 of the pattern. The 1.272 and 1.618 fib levels are marked below price. A channel down will continue down as a rule unless price breaks the top trendline of the channel which may be a buy signal, or the bottom trendline which would be a sell signal. Price has been zig zagging back and forth between the two trendlines for a long time with breaking either trendline. This has caused a slow, but steady decline. No recommendation. Short percent is 1.47% depending on where you look. If price continues in this regressive channel, price could go much lower, especially if it does not bottom out at the 1.113 where price stopped the last trip down to the bottom trendline.
NYSE:BABA
by lauralea
6
BABA Potential for bearish momentum | 26th May 2022With prices moving below the ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our sell entry at 92.71 where the horizontal swing high resistance is to our take profit at 78.53 in line with the overlap support, 61.8% fibonacci projection and 78.6% fibonacci projection. Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 101.38 where the horizontal swing high resistance and 50% fibonacci retracement are. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NYSE:BABAShort
by Rockqet
5
BABA, Potential for bearish momentum | 23th May 2022With prices moving below the ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our sell entry at 92.84 where the horizontal swing high resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is to our take profit at 79.90 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and horizontal swing low support . Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 101.82 where the horizontal swing high resistance is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NYSE:BABA
by FXCM
1
BABA, Potential for bearish momentum | 23th May 2022With prices moving below the ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our sell entry at 92.84 where the horizontal swing high resistance and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement is to our take profit at 79.90 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and horizontal swing low support . Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 101.82 where the horizontal swing high resistance is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NYSE:BABAShort
by Rockqet
BABA Potential for bearish momentum | 20th May 2022With prices moving below the ichimoku indicator, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our sell entry at 92.84 where the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement and horizontal swing high resistance is to our take profit at 79.90 in line with the 61.8% Fibonacci projection and swing low support . Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 101.82 where the horizontal swing high resistance and 100% Fibonacci projection is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NYSE:BABAShort
by Rockqet
BABA, Potential for bearish momentum | 19th May 2022On the H4, with the price reversing off the ichimoku resistance, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our sell entry at 92.84 where the horizontal swing high resistance and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement is to our take profit at 79.90 in line with the horizontal swing low support. Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 101.82 where the horizontal swing high resistance is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NYSE:BABAShort
by Rockqet
1
BABA, a beautiful example of ANTI complete cycle !BABA is a beautiful example of ANTI complete cycle ! Many Elliott wave practitioners are not aware of different types of wave cycles ! They may consider themselves as a genius in a bull market ( As everyone else !! ) but suddenly thing change and they can not understand what is happening in a stock or market ! On the left side of the chart there is a schematic drawing showing an ascending complete cycle . In this well know wave cycle waves go up in 5 leg and go down in 3 legs. Correction will never go below the start of wave cycle in this type ( does it go in some other types? of course goes ) !!. Many investors and traders were hoping for this cycle ( and may be were not aware of alternatives ) in BABA, opened long position at the possible end of wave 4 at related retracement levels and now have lost huge amount of money !!! An ascending ANTI complete cycle is shown on the right side of the chart. In this cycle waves go up in 3 legs and go down in 5 legs and correction will never go below the start of the wave cycle. Does BABA play like this wave cycle? So far yes. Is there any other alternative ? Of course yes ! please note we have many other types of wave cycle and we just showed two of them here !. For example, we have neutral or descending antic cycles ( for example of descending anti cycle see my related idea about BROS stock ). It is worth to note many Chinese stocks like TIGR and XPEV showed anti cycles and this is not a surprise as BABA is leading Chinese stocks in the market. Things sound complicated? Yes they are ! but we can extract many useful tips among all these complications : 1. Overconfidence is dangerous ! always set stop loss . Things may change suddenly in a way that we did not predict. 2. Be mindful there are many types of wave cycles . Things are not as simple as they may seem at first look. 3. Do not jump blindly into a long position after apparent up going 1 2 3 form of wave ! 4. Retracement more than 50 % in what we consider a wave 4 is a dangerous warning. We can add many other implications to the list by thinking deeply about different types of wave cycles. Hope this publication to be helpful. Good luck every one !
NYSE:BABAEducation
by SaeedSajedi
4
BABA may not hold 87 pivot; is 73 D. Bottom next or the 50 zone?BABA is in a long downward pitchfork since the 320 ATH. In this weekly chart, BABA has been oscillating between the 2 green PITCHFORK lines (in a closing basis) since it made a diamond continuation pattern last Nov2021. Last week it bounced from the pitchfork mired dotted median line has turned down again to the 87 pivot zone. If the 87 pivot zone doesn’t hold, we may see a double bottom at 73. Worst case scenario may be the Max Pain zone at 50 to 45 down back to the green line but the bottom reversal will be very fast this time. That will take us back to 57.20 the 2015 bottom before the 5 Elliott waves even started, erasing all gains. Not trading advice
NYSE:BABAShort
by xtremerider8
BABA, Potential for bullish momentum | 18th May 2022On the H4, with the price reversing off the ichimoku resistance, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our sell entry at 102.73 where the horizontal swing high resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement is to our take profit at 80.44 in line with the horizontal swing low support and 61.8% Fibonacci projection . Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 108.79 where the horizontal pullback resistance is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NYSE:BABAShort
by FXCM
BABA, Potential for bullish momentum | 18th May 2022On the H4, with the price reversing off the ichimoku resistance, we have a bearish bias that price will drop from our sell entry at 102.73 where the horizontal swing high resistance and 50% Fibonacci retracement is to our take profit at 80.44 in line with the horizontal swing low support and 61.8% Fibonacci projection. Alternatively, price may break entry structure and head for stop loss at 108.79 where the horizontal pullback resistance is. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
NYSE:BABAShort
by Rockqet
1