FRCB trade ideas
Bullish Divergence on FRC stockI am going in long on FRC this Monday NYSE:FRC . There's a very strong bullish divergence on the RSI in the daily chart, and we are clearly breaking out of a strong trend line that was formerly resistance. I'm expecting this thing to squeeze nicely, because their fundamentals and management team seem sound and technicals are clearly shouting that there is going to be a bounce of some sort this coming week.
Pure manipulation and fearNotice the stock dropped to 18 on relatively low volume. Then the day trading frenzy began. Very interesting that it's now pegged between 12-14. When it should be pegged at 18 due to volume. The big sale from the swiss pension fund may have something to do with that.
Facts will move the stock, otherwise it drizzle up/down based on the overall market movements.
FRC Short next 1.5-2.5 days followed by Long ReboundStandard disclaimers:
DISCLAIMER: This is merely speculative discussion. I'm not a certified or licensed financial advisor, securities trader, or securities broker; and, this is not intended as financial or securities advice.
DISCLOSURE: I own long shares of FRC .
At $12.85/share FRC is trading around 10% of it's 1 month high price of $123.46, and down to just under 5.8% from it's 2021 high prices of $221.80. Can its leadership turn the ship around quickly enough by fixing its long-term, short-term, and reserves mix?
Looking at Willy, VWAP, volume, and price charts, it looks like FRC is repeating a pattern of around 2.5 days of falling 3-4 dead cat bounces down to $11.50-$11.80, then a rebound in the neighborhood of $15.50-$17.00.
For this week, looking for low between $10.50 - $11.80. That, followed by a very short rebound between 40% - 55% of is then low price per share from $14.70 - $18.29, more narrowly within the same neighborhood as the previous two rebounds of $15.50-$17.00.
$FRC - Lessons for future reference1. Do not trade late stage base breakout ... especially those created side by side with a RSI bearish divergence.
2. Exit long positions when the price closes below the 10 EMA (M) / 50 EMA (W) / 200 EMA (D).
3. Never let bullish reactions encourage you if the price remains below this key threshold.
4. Consider even shorting if you see a bearish rejection candle in the 10 EMA territory.
5. Perhaps the most important lesson is to never risk more than 1% of your trading capital in a single trade.
Cheers,
Tenacious Tribe - Backtested Trading Strategies & Studies
FRC - High Risk vs High RewardsHello Everyone,
A huge oversold situation could be in the making.
FRC is Extremely oversold on fears of bancruptcy or being bought out by JPM soon.
While such case is highly likely, the bank can still rise on any good news as all the bad ones are already baked in the current price.
JPM's CEO is already in the talk with other banks on possible solution for FRC , so this could lead to some good news about the bank and have the price rise. This can make a margin-call for many shorts and lead to a nice retracement back above $20.
Still, it is extremely risky trade, but this is where the highest rewards can be made, so trade at your own risk. Good luck to everyone.
Downgraded From BB+ To BBIt's a personal opinion of mine that psychological levels, whole number resistance and support, should have this much control over price action.
Psychological levels have the most effect when there's extremes of emotions. I feel it's rather self-explanatory.
It's either going towards zero or it's getting bought to prevent it from hitting the pavement.
The variance in price alone is a clear indicator its in deep trouble while it was just downgraded to BB.
Previous low on charts of $17.60 is notable, while $20 pertains to psychological significance.
Below this, I see little more than psychological levels.
$10, double digits. $5, where select exchanges consider a stock a penny stock. $1, where the rest consider it a penny stock.
You can label a ton of this chart a deadcat bounce here or there.
Please add thoughts. I didn't see a Fibonacci ladder helping much because the price action was too chaotic.
DYOR/DYOC.
FRC First Republic Bank Price TargetFRC First Republic Bank received uninsured deposits of $30 billion on Mar 16, 2023, from 11 banks of the country: Bank of America Corporation BAC, Citigroup Inc. C, JPMorgan Chase & Co. JPM, PNC Bank, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, Bank of New York Mellon, State Street, Truist, and U.S. Bank.
I know it`s a risky trade, but i believe this recue package puts it in a lot better situation that CS Credit Suisse Group.
My price target for FRC First Republic Bank is at least $30.30 and maybe $52.20.
Looking forward to read your opinion about it.
Frc idea I honestly don’t think the gov will allow another bank shut down . They will do everything to keep and re assure that the money is safe. Otherwise it’s Gona go like a domino effect they had to contain this before more banks falls. Buying some pre market which I can afford to lose if bank shuts down
FRC to $42The price spring should it break and hold should be fairly large and fast. It currently broke a major trend to the downside and hit an exit. It also has fairly smooth sailing should it break to the upside tomorrow. Exit trade should the blue trend break or should the stock price reject off the red trend. Buy the dips on the trend until it breaks, and then sell on the bottom side of the trend.
Regional Bank Fears Continue... 😮💨Saturday night i decided to take a look at all major bank charts. I called 3 potential 'dangerous ones' and ended up guessing 2 of them right. One of them was First Republic. (you can ask me for proof if you are interested to confirm this).
“First Republic’s capital and liquidity positions are very strong, and its capital remains well above the regulatory threshold for well-capitalized banks,” Jim Herbert, First Republic’s founder and executive chairman, and CEO Mike Roffler said in a statement.
First Republic lists $213 billion in assets. The lender reached out to customers over the weekend in a bid to reassure them.
“In light of recent industry events, the last few days have caused uncertainty in the financial markets,” First Republic senior executives said in an email to clients viewed by CNN. “We want to take a moment to reinforce the safety and stability of First Republic, reflected in the continued strength of our capital, liquidity and operations.”
The federal bank rescue announced Sunday should help ease some of the pressure on the banking system, Isaac Boltansky, director of policy research at BTIG, told CNN.
“But this is not a permanent solution and this will not be the final chapter in this story,” he said.
What's next?
Uncertainty.. I hope all goes well but in the meantime remember to look at Bitcoin . Just my humble opinion, perhaps I am right.
One Love,
The FXPROFESSOR