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Grayscale Digital Large Cap Fund LLC

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GDLC trade ideas

mission accomplished...- grayscale proposes converting OTC:GDLC into ETF - this is what we were playing for folks, the headline, minimally - as of writing still 20% discount... think the "right" discount is probably 10-15%, call it 15% conservatively given there's still a LOT that needs to happen before the SEC starts to greenlight avax and sol (i think XRP is already on deck) - don't forget the bitwise copy... $BITW. - today i'm rebalancing from OTC:GDLC -> OTC:BITW b/c now OTC:BITW trades at a 10% discount to OTC:GDLC and still closer to a 23% discount (that's also probably trending toward 5-10% in the coming 3-6 months and probably deserves a 15% given the grayscale announcement). - i'd not be surprised for OTC:BITW to make a similar announcement sooner vs. later - and OTC:BITW is 2x the AUM and has a better quality backer (vs. grayscale) which will make a lot of noise. historically OTC:BITW trades at a premium to $gdlc. - however OTC:BITW also contains more "junk" that's going to be a lot harder to greenlight vs. OTC:GDLC e.g. MIL:UNI etc. and i think that's a more nuanced issue. so in THEORY it probably either needs to trim some of this stuff and/or the approval is further away. - anyway. i'm back to about a 30% position between the two of these things, a far cry from my switching to guns comment when i went 50% size a few weeks back in OTC:GDLC - it won't be straight up for either of these things (remember BTC is possibly over earning px action wise ST... so i'm still nimble), but now we can buy dips with slightly more conviction, notably OTC:GDLC given the less complicated contents that are probably an easier convert vs. $bitw. drop comments below. enjoy. V
OTC:GDLCLong
by VROCKSTAR
the GDLC/ BITW spread now favors a balance... back to missilesback to rebalancing this puppy (my main trade) and taking a lil potato off the table. bout 30% cash in the portfolio entering the weekend. 30% cash, 20% bitw, 15% celh, 10% nxt, 10% gdlc, 5% myps, 3% blde and still massaging my FAFO P's in things like NYSE:SG , NYSE:FIGS (this is new this week), NYSE:CAVA , NYSE:PLTR , NASDAQ:WGMI , NASDAQ:BZFD , AMEX:KRE , NASDAQ:GEN , and $apld. i like to keep my longs heavy and my shorts much more diversified b/c of the meme we live in. just a PSA, that's all. hope everyone is well enjoy ;) V
OTC:GDLC
by VROCKSTAR
9/11/24 - $gdlc vs. $bitw - rebalancing- the spread has narrowed nicely - going to about 65% gdlc (selling some down from 100%) and 35% bitw (from 0%) of my overall closed end crypto exposure (which as of today is about 40% of the total book) - typically as momentum starts to move in these funds i've noticed an overshoot on both sides. so to the extent gdlc starts to trade 5-10% above the bitw discount (using this chart as my guide) i slowly migrate to 100% bitw and 0% gdlc. if i had just started building a position in TSXV:GLDC and needed/ want more closed end exposure, my incremental buy would probably be 50% gdlc and 50% bitw enjoy V
OTC:GDLC
by VROCKSTAR
1
9/5/24 - $gbtc - too close for missiles... 50% position.9/5/24 :: VROCKSTAR :: OTC:GDLC too close for missiles... 50% position. - i've been 30-40% size, tip toe stuff. as some of you have deduced, i am deep in the weeds on how this industry works. not the TA bs. the under pinnings. and if i had to distill the problem (and continues to be a problem) with bitcoin in one sentence it's this: hashprice is hitting all time lows and going lower data.hashrateindex.com - public mining co's basically are using the dumb money (that's what we call retail on wallstreet) as their piggy bank to finance larger and larger swaths of exahash pull forward and to communicate bigger and bigger guidance of exahash growth. that's the game. - why is it the game? because simply put... mgmt of these "companies" (quotations should be triple) are incentivized by higher stonk price. stonk price is being rewarded by apes looking to value on exahash and growth of exahash. it's as dumb money as you get. so they out compete each other to basically win on both these fronts. they issue more and more shares at your dilution expense to communicate this very very economically unsustainably goal. - guess what fam? it works until it doesn't. and Bitcoin WILL FIX THIS, but it means very likely lower bitcoin price or at the VERY minimum much lower mining stonks price. my guess is both. - but what's the lower price? do we get to ETF lows? maybe yes. i've talked about this. - but GDLC is now at a 38% discount to spot. it's mostly bitcoin. i've written about this extensively. you basically get BTC at 35k at today's $17.5 ish levels. - so no more time for missiles switching to guns as the top gunna says. 50% position. - as a portfolio review, bc i've also written about NXT and CELH recently, i've moved half my size to 10/18C's to free up some capital (and still carry a healthy 25% cash balance) into uncharted economic territory. - i think mkt will be GREEN tmr on a totally fake but nonetheless "true" jobs report that will be worse than if the 2020 election were fake and worse than if we were lied to about one step for mankind. and the mkts are gonna love love this. the hard landing is already happening folks. have you not seen these stonk prices? unlike other economic "crashes" each of these stonks has crashed at different times. it doesn't show up in the index. look NASDAQ:TSLA is up a lot in the last 2 days. it helps the index. you don't notice these things, but the machines do. they manage the index. the INDEX IS NOT REAL. - so how about deez nuts. how bout deez apples? GDLC represents both a HEDGE (bc of the discount) and LEVERAGE (because of the discount) and DIVERSIFICATION (hello alt season) ALL IN ONE. you just have to take the time to look at this thing. this isn't something you buy to sell tmr. you need to time entries better than anything bc of it's liquidity. that's also the upside. it's NOT well known. so. let's keep our heads on. last few days have sucked. but we've been here before. we will be here again. tomorrow's not promised (and i mean that in a very real way) so let's be kind to those around us. tell your wife, your kid(s), your friends you love them. we will make it. and we will do it gracefully. tomorrow might not be the bottom, but today's not the end and neither is tomorrow. let's do this. V
OTC:GDLCLong
by VROCKSTAR
8/14/24 - $gdlc - you added at $19.5 today, right anon?www.grayscale.com 36% discount to NAV bitwiseinvestments.com the 2x (AUM) larger comp is at a 23% discount to NAV i don't want to insult the current retail crop within GDLC, but to say, i'm reasonably sure the bitwise team is actually selling their (original flagship) product BITW and who knows if grayscale is doing the same. sells in these close end funds tend to beget more sales take advantage of emotions and ignorance at 36% discount - you get btc at 41k, eth at 1.3k, sol at 58, xrp (lol) at 17c, avax at 6 - or for perspective if you write anything ex-btc at 0... you get btc at 51k (13% discount to spot) the way i see it downside on this thing w/ a btc nuke is low teens, let's round numbers use $15. the current NAV is $30. so downside 5, upside 10 from where we stand. what happens first? my friends, i have no clue. but that's a nice risk/reward in a great asset class and at a nice margin of safety in an uncertain market. just the way i see it. GDLC is now a 50% position for me at the close... i was the floor on this thing at $19.5 today. have more ammo to keep buying, but i like my size for now (and some short miners as hedges). gl friends. blessings to all. V
OTC:GDLCLong
by VROCKSTAR
2
8/14/24 - $gdlc - by far my largest position 35% off BTC and ETH- adding back today about 45% size (was 35% a week ago for perspective) - 35% discount to NAV and 90% of the assets are BTC and ETH (mostly BTC) - the way i xls it out, you get btc at 42k, eth at 1.6k, sol at 74, xrp at 17c and avax at 6 (that's what you're paying at sub $20 today) - can always go lower, but you're buying yourself a nice margin of safety here on the underlying assets - if you are considering adding btc exposure (thru etf's) and the idea is a long term hold, i can't think of any other reason why not to make this part of that exposure. - downside i think is low to mid teens on this $20 value today, so you could still see 30-40% drawdown in bad case scenario (btc implied w/b probably mid 20s at that point on my math) - the way i think about btc is that as long as you're not down >50% in the second half of a bull cycle, you're incentivized to get long at strategic times. this is one of those w/ the right vehicle i believe V
OTC:GDLCLong
by VROCKSTAR
GDLC - DailyThis is a daily timeframe view with monthly and yearly TA. Green = year redish = monthly grey = weekly I just saw a post for GDLC by gdlc appear on my timeline and thought, really? do they need money? Price just broke trend. If you understand the concept of Master / Controller of the charts. If the Master switched and controller is now the support levels holding price up to the master resistance trend then the Dead cat could bounce awhile. If not and this weekly trend can cycle another time, it could hold to equal highs. Lets see if they're social strategy works on x or not haha
OTC:GDLC
by StudyGuideTA
7/9/24 - $gdlc - best way to own btc at discountPls go read my OTC:GDLC vs. OTC:BITW posts for context. - But the divergence of valuations means OTC:GDLC is about 30% discount to NAV, OTC:BITW about 20% discount. these are starting to narrow. - if BTC rips, GDLC is going to catch up to BITW. not without closed end fund risks. but also don't sleep on this. - it's better btc than ETF at the moment and the window to make these trades probably closes this year (the alpha evaporates once we get eth ETFs trading) - my best guess is we try for upside on BTC before settling lower into the summer (low 50s/ high 40s retest), so i'm not fully deployed. if that happens this becomes 80% of my book... watch me. - but for now, i like playing a retrace higher w/ a margin of safety on the NAV spread LMK what u think. largest position for me V
OTC:GDLCLong
by VROCKSTAR
7/5/24 - $gdlc > $bitw todayIf you're inclined to buy some cheap sats and don't mind the complexities of the closed end structure, OTC:GDLC > $bitw. TL;DR and so you don't have to dig up my prior comment - the green line represents approximate parity between the two. above it OTC:BITW better. below it (where we are now) OTC:GDLC better. you're getting about a 5% improvement on spread. so if OTC:GDLC is about 29-30% to spot, OTC:BITW is only 24-25% - my thesis here having traded these closed end vehicles for some time (all of them), is that in the event of ETH etf approval, given these are 70% btc, 20% eth and 10% chitcoins or thereabout is the allocation, you probably get a 5% discount on both the btc, eth in time and perhaps remain w a 25-30% discount on the other stuff (maybe higher). this probably puts the eventual discount to spot in the 5-10% region, round up and call it 15%. if that's the case, you capture another 15% upside to owning this vehicle and have another 15-20% juice for the ride if/when higher in the underlying. - of course, as we r seeing these will trade even more at discount and the nominal price (of the tickers) suffer in drawdowns. no telling where btc goes. i think the low could sweep the ETF approval lows, or in the mid to low 40s w/ 30% probability. this informs why most of my powder is still dry and why i only am buying these closed end funds (the discount is juicy enough to merit owning this over physical ... for now). - be safe. enjoy the weekend, V
OTC:GDLCLong
by VROCKSTAR
7/1/24 - $gdlc vs. $bitw - quick visual to compare- i won't post much on btc/ related vehicles for reasons i may get into over time - that said, i don't mind publishing this rule of thumb chart i've been using to trade the diversified funds (gdlc - grayscale and bitw - bitwise) - both of these are about 65-70% btc, 20+% eth and 10+% other chitcoins - if/when eth etf, these probably still trade at a discount to NAV but the discount (about 30% of the writing 7/1/24) probably goes to 15-20%. so there's some alpha capture there - obviously is spot drops 30%, these probably trade wide again 35%? idk. THE POINT of me publishing this is this green line - if you want to stomach all the short term issues that come with trading closed end funds with high fees bc you're a LT holder of BTC, you can get the only discount on "physical" bitcoin in the market today w these - if you're a maxi (recommended btw), just write all the other stuff at zero and you're still at about a 15% discount on spot BTC - better than the ETF ABOVE THAT GREEN LINE - bitw is the better buy - bitwiseinvestments.com BELOW THAT GREEN LINE - gdlc is the better buy - www.grayscale.com ... i rotate between the two based on how far away from the green line they are. as of today, i've been selling gdlc for bitw. gdlc ironically has better liquidity than bitw despite being half the size. these tend to oscillate quite a bit. nonetheless. hope it helps and cheers V
OTC:GDLC
by VROCKSTAR
Long on GLDC 9 Buy signalI've already got longs on $GBTC and $ETHE. My current strategy is to buy when tickers flash a buy signal on the TD Sequential. I opened a max position (no more than two percent capital loss) on this last week and we saw a 25% gain the next day! Now, the premium on this is HUUUGE, way more than other Grayscale assets, so I'm just trading on the technical here. Gambling, even. I'm not quite sure why GDLC had this pump last Friday, considering BTC and ETH were down on Friday, and the fund is market cap weighted on BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH and LTC.
OTC:GDLCLong
by madgod