GLCNF trade ideas
GLENCORE COMPANY LONG TERM / UANL FACPYA 5FiThis analysis is made for the class Principles of Financial Managment.
This company is dedicated to the commodities market, this market during the last months had have an important increase 170% since last year (WorldBank.com) so it is expected a pullback for the market.
If you want to invest in Glencore or another commodities company,I would wait for the pullback.
Glencore Plc vs Anglo American Plc (London)Late last week on the trading desk, I presented a technical chart highlighted my perspective of the monthly chart for Glencore relative to Anglo American Plc on the London Stock Exchange (LSE), with the comment as follows:
The relative monthly chart for GLEN vs AAL is suggesting the potential for a long-term shift, where GLEN could outperform AAL.
I've overlayed Albermarle (one of the world's biggest lithium producers) and Piedmont Lithium highlighting how the relative ratio chart could 'catch up'.
Glencore's portfolio is well-positioned to benefit from the EV revolution which is in its infancy.
Note the base having developed, with the price now having pushed up to a 17-month high.
In addition, the 14-month RSI is attempting a 6-year downward trend line breakout.
Note: For the sake of clarity, the chart presented here is without Albermarle and Pidemont.
So far we have seen the relative price rebound twice off the 200-day and has advanced by +4% so far this week. Can it continue?
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Glencore showing signs of downward momentumJSE:GLN is showing signs of downward momentum based on the indicators of our momentum strategy.
The EMAs crossed in a downwards direction yesterday while the stochastic both crossed downwards the day before.
I think we could see a move down towards the previous support area at around 5780
GLN bull flagSmall bull flag forming on GLN and looks like it is going to confirm today. I am looking for a move to R70 and then R72 as second target.
Trade ideas are my own and not financial advice.
Nice Ascending triangle breakouWe have a nice ascending triangle pattern on the stock. Waiting for a close above The R64.85 level. Then I will start building my position with a stop loss at R57.23
GLN: testing major resistanceUpside price momentum supports the bullish trend.
A price action above 6100 supports a bullish trend.
Profit target: 6750
Stop-loss: 6050.
The price action remains close to the lower range of the linear regression channel - which increases the likelihood of a mean reversion trade.
RSI leaves enough room for further upside potential.
RIO Tinto is the outperformerRIO is the winner in performance compared to BHP and Glencore.
It's highly possible, that this will be also in the future...
So Glencore is on the sideline for the big miners in my strategy... BHP and RIO are more interesting.
Is Glencore in a cyclical trend? I love this chart from an educational perspective. Markets move in cycles. Some sectors tend to be more cyclical than others and the resource sector definitely fits into that categorization and we can see that in the chart.
So from a fundamental perspective, can one assume that Glencore has started a new cyclical trend? A great South African manager that i highly respect put out a note on their exposure to Glencore and relative underweight positions in other diversified miners such as BHP and Anglo. From a fundamental perspective, Glencore mines commodities such as copper, nickel and zinc, all of which have fundamental reasons why the demand in these commodities should increase over time. Copper looks a bit pricey at the moment, perhaps in need of a health pull back but over time it should increase in price.
The signals suggest that the price of Glencore should rise over the short-term, however, i think it may then undergo a healthy pullback before its next leg upwards.
So what is one to make of all of this? Well either buy in now and hold for the next 2-3 years or until the fundamentals change, perhaps taking profits at certain points on the way up, or wait for the pull back (if it occurs) and then buy in. In other words, buy in and hold or sit on your hands and wait.
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GLN short if it breaks through supportThe MACD and Stochastic indicators on JSE:GLN are both signaling a downward move. However, it is currently trading around a support level (+-5800) and I will be inclined to wait for it to break through that level before entering short. If it does play out, we could see a move to at least the support level of around 4900.
GLN -1D - MOMENTUM BULLISHGlencore is showing overbought positions on monthly weekly and daily stochastics. If i were in this trade, i would stay in. As it is i would wait for a retrace to fibbonaci levels before entering a trade. News on antitrust case positive, as are fundamentals in general. Prices have run to far ahead to chase in my opinion.
Glencore PLCAfter doing some research, I like this company. With the uprising of the EV industry along with COVID recovery in other industries (aerospace, infrastructure, renewable energy movement) I believe this is a good opportunity here for a rise up. Details in photo. Financials are getting better since taking commodity hits all 2020. New Management with a chip on the shoulder I'm sure. Commodities include (zinc, nickel, copper, gold, silver, cobalt, coal, and I may be missing one or two more.) I can see some growth in this company. They also increased their dividends. They literally had to slow up on production due to covid demands. More companies will start shopping around. Let's see what happens! I bought 8 shares and will watch for dip re buys! I know this company will be around. I'll look forward to increasing dividends down the line.
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Bullish on GlencoreGlencore established itself in its 48-64 box. when it breaks into a bigher box I will add into my posidion
A nice bullish flag on GlencoreNice bullish flag on Glencore. After a strong break the 4362c resistance. My target for Glencore is 7000c with a stop around 5450c. If we take out the recent high around 5900c there’s a good chance that we are going to hit 7000c.
GLN - Broken through consolidation areaJSE:GLN has been trading in a somewhat sideways consolidation area since 3 December and with yesterday's large upward candle it has broken through the top as well as the 5000 level - this level is a strong level on the daily as well as the monthly chart and acts as a strong psychological level due to the round number. I think we could see a nice upward move from here possibly to at least around the resistance level between 5400 and 5500.
Glencore breaks the resistance, and stays above it after a retesGlencore looking good on the long side. But I'm gonna wait for the trend to actually start running. waiting for my 30 week EMA , to cross above 60 week EMA
Investing in components players of EV sectorsFirst , read this article here
Next, you read this here
So, simply put, cobalt and nickel are two important components that are needed for the manufacture of EV batteries. We have already witnessed the parabolic moves of Tesla and Nio EV players.
Of course, there are other junior miners that one can consider but Tesla would want to partner with a big player with reliable supplies so that their supply chain would not be affected. So, do you want to go for the pie or the crumbs of the business ? My analysis are often top down with simple logic before dwelling further into other aspects.
Chart wise, there are 2 support zones to buy.
1. Buy a smaller position here. It is still riding on the bullish trend line since the March low and breaking of 2.40 would ensure it continues to charge higher .
2. Buy slighter bigger position than 1. This is in the event that the correction at 1 is not over and it continues to fall further. But, if you only want to wait for 2 to buy and if the Market does not offer you that, then you would miss this trade opportunity.
Glencore on its way up - may find resistanceJSE:GLN is looking good for a long position on our momentum strategy, but may find some resistance at around the 4000 level. If it breaks through this level, we could see it move all the way up to 4300.
Glencore is still a short but there will be a big super cycleGlencore is still a short opportunity but mid-2022 looks to be the end of long run commodity bear trend. The company has a diversified basket of commodities, including nickel, which is famous because of electric vehicles.
*This is not a financial advice.*
