Sears - A prime example of accumulationI was looking at Sears this winter around 2 cents, it was a simple chart request from someone, and that lead to me following it. I was noticing the .01-.03 range and found this intriguing, even though this might not be the most fundamental play. Then I tried to buy it around .02 but Fidelity wouldn't let me. I'm now seeing how that accumulation range really played out. A little research lead me to this:
Via Benzinga:
The “old” Sears is however in litigation with the “new” Sears, claiming that the new Sears owes an additional $57.5 million to the old Sears from the sale. In addition, a pending lawsuit filed by old Sears in April 2019 alleges that Lampert and his associates siphoned billions of dollars in assets from it as the company descended into bankruptcy.
At best, the future outlook of the old Sears Holdings company is murky. While Lampert maintains that he will turn the new company around, the old Sears Holdings that still has its stock listed on the OTC market as SHLDQ would not participate because the new Sears is currently wholly owned by Lampert.
On the other hand, if the lawsuits filed by the old Sears against Lampert and associates go to trial and win or are settled favorably, then having a stake in SHLDQ stock might make sense to a trader or investor comfortable with the high risk involved.
NFA, DYOR
SHLDQ trade ideas
Sears update - price action is getting ready to possibly explodeLooking at the pattern again with fresh eyes it looks like price might be coiling up for an explosion to the upside. Sears could be showing repeating fractals where price explodes out of the apex. This would be a very bullish sign for maybe the next 1 to 6 months.
Sears - price action shows channel wants to break outLooking at Sears it appears price is moving in a channel. Seeing some nice green wick candles indicates to me that buyers are stepping in.
Could see another drop towards the bottom of the channel, otherwise it could be a good high probability setup to wait for impulse above the channel, then correction (bull flag), and then continuation above the price for bullish setup.
Sears... Continuation Ascending Triangle Breakout ! Sear's ( SHLDQ) 30 Minute Chart
show's a clear Continuation Triangle Breakout
to the Upside in 2/13/19 trading.
When a stock in a parabolic move up
breaks out to the upside in this manner,
it simply reveals that buyer's are completely in control of the stock,
and a potential new up leg is probably beginning in the stock.
Technical Analysis 101 tells you in no uncertain terms
that the stocks that you consider for purchase with your own money,
MUST have overwhelming technical reason's for doing so.
With Sear's right now, buyers are simply are not willing to let go of, or sell their stock.
That is about as bullish a set up, as you could ever expect to see, short term.
The mistake that already seems to be in the cards with Sears,
is selling the stock too early !
At some point,there will be a sell off perhaps even a sharp one,
but right now buyer's are in complete control, adding to position in the continuing advance.
Of note, 30 Minute RSI has been above 70 ! ,.. since 2/7/19 Daily Low, at .55 cents. Remarkable.
Pull backs in this stock when/if they occur are a gift at this point,
and should be bought using proper limits at all times.
I shall continue to follow Sears (SHLDQ), on tradingview.com
and write,and post updates, as needed, in the future.
SHLDQ Last 2.61
THE_UNWIND
2/13/19 115 PM
NEW YORK
Extraordinary Parabolic Advance Continues.. Sears Target $5.00 The extraordinary parabolic move up in Sear's (SHLDQ)
has continued unabated in 2/13/19 trading
with the stock up yet another 30 + % today alone,....now trading above 2.50 a share !
There are simply no meaningful pullbacks to buy into here.
I have chosen to begin accumulating Sear's again at 2.50 a share this morning, using that level as a GTC Stop.
$2.50 is very important number as it now opens the possibility of the stock doubling from these levels, to the $5.00 a share
which I repeat will get the stock relisted on Nasdaq for trading, a very important benchmark threshold for the company.
,
Some may dismiss the move in Sear's, as a low cap stock/high risk trade ,a who care's trade on a Chapter 11 company.
I choose to believe the real estate alone is worth more than $5.00 a share in Sears.
and that the price rise in Sears could be a potential once in a lifetime speculative opportunity
where risk/reward continues to be for an extremely bullish endgame = $5.00 a share =100 % Return !
SHLDQ Last 2 57
THE_UNWIND
2/13/19 1145 AM
NEW YORK
The above analysis is my own stock evaluation, both technical and fundamental.
It should never be considered trading advise,of any kind.
Sear's Targeting $2 Up 150 %,. Since My Buy RecommendationSear's Holding ( SHLDQ ) has hit 1.80 in early trading on 2/12/19.
it's is up another 33 % today,
making the return in the stock in last 4 days since I recommended
the stock on tradingview at over 150 % !
I think the stock has it's sights set on $5.00
which would get the stock re-listed for trading on Nasdaq,
which would be hugely significant for the long term for Sears.
Strongly advise, monitoring this stock
and use any meaningful pullbacks, if/when you get them,
to accumulate this stock.
it is exceedingly rare, to catch something like this in the market.
SHLDQ Last 1.71
THE_UNWIND
2/12/19 1013 AM
NEW YORK
$SHLDQ Soars to New Highs as it Gears up for a Massive RecoveryOne thing is known. SHLDQ Chairman Eddie Lampert and his Hedge Fund ESL held commons, and therefore voting rights. Owning 70%+/- is more than huge, no one could take over the company without their say so. To say that commons will not survive is somewhat ludicrous. Why would Lampert cut his own throat? Commons have voting rights and thus, he controls the company’s actions win or lose.
So, bottom-line:
1) Commons are safe.
a. They will be exchanged for NEWCO shares
b. Should be on a 1-1 ratio, but who knows
2) 375+/- stores will be liquidated to pay down debt.
3) 425 Surviving stores will make up the “New” Sears
4) June POR to be released
5) Debtors will be paid as assets are sold off and revenue comes in
This is jmho and how I see things evolving. Sure there can be and will be changes going along the way, but again, the hard part is done…Lampert and ESL survived the biggest holocaust they ever faced.
6) A Hedge Fund, Fairholme, owned by Bruce Berkowitz holds mount beneficially owned:
Fairholme Capital Management, L.L.C.: 3,900,408 (3.6%)
Bruce R. Berkowitz: 4,578,440 (4.2%)
Fairholme Funds, Inc.: 2,774,489(2.5%)
www.otcmarkets.com
Other institutional shareholders:
www.morningstar.com
There are about 30 million public float.
Here is a comparison study between WMI and SHC Bankruptcies:
1. Both Companies have hired Weil, Gotshal & Manges - experts in protecting the NOLs/ Tax Attributes and in Reorganizations.
2. Both Companies sold substantially all of their Assets in Bankruptcy. WMI sold its Bank WAMU to JPM and SHC just sold all of its Operating Stores to ESL.
3. Both Companies have/had significant NOLs. WMI had $ 7.5 B in NOLs and as of Feb 3, 2018 SHC had $ 5 B in NOLs with an additional $ 1.9 B in Losses in the 9 months following Feb 3, 2018. That would be $ 6.9 B in NOLs as of Nov 3, 2018.
4. In the WMI Bankruptcy over 90 % of the reorganized Common Stock were issued to the Preferred and Common Shareholders. After WMI was emerged from Bankruptcy as WMIH with the limited remaining Assets, the WMIH Stock traded in the .50 range and then eventually increased to about $4.00
5. $WMIH was eventually merged with $COOP to utilize $ 6 B in NOLs which is trading at $14.70
6. It is my opinion that it was the $ 7.5 B in NOLs that saved the WMI Preferred and Commons. And I think that the same event could happen with the SHLDQ Commons.
Sear's Up 100 % in 3 Trading Day's 2/11/19Look at this 15 minute chart....
The chart is of Sear's Holding's, for just the last 3 trading days.
I purchased SHLDQ on 2/7/19 at .60 on a dollar
prior to the new's that the bankruptcy judge had ruled in favor
of keeping 450 Sear's and K-Mart stores OPEN, rather than liquidating
as some creditors had wished.
Today the stock has doubled in price since my purchase,
a remarkable 100 % gain in just 3 trading days !
We often spend countless stressful hours trying to figure out
if the market will be up or down the next trading day,
and in the process getting whipsawed into potentially money losing trades,
or break even ones that make us feel we dodged a bullet.
Why do we put ourselves in that position..?
Just picking 1 stock,..doing your homework,
and then having the where with all, and the patience
to just let it run, like a 3 year old horse, in the Kentucky Derby.
Sometimes thru the grace of a higher power,that's exactly what happens
Sear's Holding's is admittedly an extremely risky play. But it's like a stock option except, it has no expiration date !
If you are a believer like I am in Sears, and I was in- store over the weekend on Long Island,
then you may have found the stock , really all that you need for 2019.
So buy Sear's.
It may give you an opportunity for that 3 month vacation on the ocean this summer, away from all of that....
SHLDQ Last 1.25
THE_UNWIND
2/11/19 215 PM
NEW YORK
Sears ..Win's A Second Life After Death !A Federal Bankruptcy judge granted CEO Eddie Lambert's
5.5 Billion Dollar bid in bankruptcy court to keep 450
select Sears ( SHLDQ ) and K=Mart locations OPEN, saving the jobs of 55,000 workers in the United States.
I must admit to being thrilled by the news, as I still, o this day shop at both Sears and K Mart.
Technically, the stock play is rife speculation, obviously after falling below $1.00 in 2018
But..if the stock closes this month back above $1.00, then the possibility is there
for an immediate technical based rally to $2.00, offering the highly speculative trader,
an opportunity to double their investment, with a potential gain of 100 % !
SHLDQ Last .755
THE_UNWIND
2/7/19
NEW YORK
$SHLDQ Major Future Dates Predictions and TakeAways TP $4.50I have taken a large position on Sears going into the Sale hearing on Feb 1st after a revised bid was submitted today for $5 Bil, giving it a valuation almost 100x the current Market Cap. I do believe the stock should more than likely do at the very least 3x the current PPS and at the very most 9x the current PPS going into the Sale Hearing.
Here's some info I found on another case for Lampert which makes a very valid point:
"$GGP the same scenario happened there many were against Lampert debtors and creditors and was fought legally, the judge eventually sided with Lampert and the offer was accepted commons were not wiped out and many who held made tons of money selling at $29 bucks from a position of .65 cents
The price started to go up slowly before the offer acceptance and once it was accepted we got to $2 dollars and by the time they got out of bankruptcy it started to move and in less that two years or so I cannot remember exactly we were in mid twenties lots of money was made.
I repeat not once in legal disclosures or security filings has sears ever mentioned anything about commons being cancelled.
There is always a disclosure when companies file for bankruptcy, they disclose this very clearly that they do not expect commons to survive. Why then are insiders still holding their common shares?"
Insider Ownership:
ESL Partners, L.P.
156,380,740 (1)(2) 73.4 % (3)
JPP II, LLC
65,015,615 (4)(5) 37.3 % (6)
SPE I Partners, LP
150,124 0.1 %
SPE Master I, LP
193,341 0.2 %
RBS Partners, L.P.
156,724,205 (1)(7) 73.6 % (3)
ESL Investments, Inc.
156,724,205 (1)(7) 73.6 % (3)
JPP, LLC
44,629,752 (5) 29.0 % (8)
Edward S. Lampert
156,724,205 (1)(7) 73.6 % (3)
Important Future Dates:
• January 11, 2019 (10:00 a.m.): Hearing on Stalking Horse Designation Objections and on objections to the qualification of any Credit Bid by affiliate or insider, if necessary.
• January 14, 2019 (10:00 a.m.): Auction held at Weil offices, if necessary.
• January 16, 2019: Target date for debtors to file with the Bankruptcy Court the Notice of Auction Results and to provide the applicable Counterparty with Adequate Assurance Information for the Successful Bidder (if different than the Stalking Horse Bidder)
• The later of (i) January 24, 2019 and (ii) eight days of filing of the Notice of Auction Results and Service of the Adequate Assurance Information: Deadline to object to (i) the proposed Sale Transaction for a Successful Bidder (including a Stalking Horse Bidder), (ii) Debtors’ proposed Cure Costs for Proposed Assumed Contracts not included in any Stalking Horse Bid, (iii) the assumption of and assignment to a Successful Bidder that is not a Stalking Horse Bidder of any Proposed Assumed Contracts or any Contracts or Leases that may later be designated by such Successful Bidder for assumption and assignment, and (iv) conduct of the Auction
• January 29, 2019 (4:00 p.m.) or two days prior to the Hearing Date: Debtors’ deadline to reply to Sale Objections
• February 1, 2019 (10:00 a.m.): Sale Hearing
Sears is a 126 year old corporation and the pioneer of many things we have today in retail. I do believe the company and commons will be saved either through Lampert or a buyout from another organization, maybe one of the many insiders who still have a majority stake in the company where they can offset the price of buying it out with the dramatic increase of the PPS from this level.
I am Mid to Long term depending on how the PPS plays out and the price.
