Help Me Make Sense To This...?All of that yellow shows gaps in the chart.
How does something like that happen? Is this manipulation? A rigged system?
Where does the money go or come from?
Cheers
TCEHY trade ideas
Trend is your friend The obsession of catching the bottom and being proven right is so strong that many would fall for it willingly , taking an unknown risk with no idea if the down trend has reversed.
Looking at the weekly chart, if Oct 2022 is the bottom, then the current downtrend should be rebounding soon and not continue to fall next week/year in 2024. If I am right and it does fall to revisit the Oct low again, creating a double bottom , which I have neither the skills nor foresight but mere conjecture. So , do take this with a pinch of salt and DYODD.
China stocks or ETF for that matter has been hated by many, both institutional and retail investors for some time now, losing trillions of dollars at the seemingly uninterested government of China.
Really, the government is indeed doing something (read here and here
Therefore, I believe the China government is very likely to cut interest rates and print money to stimulate the economy. This would boost corporate lendings and help the private sector to recover, to grow at a faster pace without resorting to cutting prices to beat competition. Trickle down to the retail investors, company expansion would help to improve job opportunities and stabilise the household income, thereby returning the much needed confidence to invest in the stock market again.
Of course, this is my wishful thinking and it may or may not happen so we will have to wait and see. There is no rush to show hand just to catch the bottom but rather wait for the trend reversal to takes place and then participate in it. So what if you missed the bottom which in retrospect are known after the price action is shown in the chart weeks or months later.
Patience remains a skill , one that is scientifically not taught in the investment world but rather a psychological state of mind. It can be trained and improved over times and different measures can be put in place.
Depending on when you review the chart, one might have taken a long position in Dec 2022 when it breaks out from the bearish trend. They should be in break even stage now if prices do not continue to falter but nobody knows for sure.
Like I said so often, market always give us a 2nd or 3rd opportunity. So for those who like this company, we just have to wait patiently for the price action to break out before deciding to go LONG.
FOMO stays regardless we are in 2023 or 2024 or beyond. Where human prevails, the old adage of greed and fear will continue to drive the market. So be careful when you go overboard and pull back a little and let the hard data (charts) tell you if you are following or against the trend.
WIshing everyone a Happy and Prosperous New Year.
Tencent Short: Target $246.Firstly, apologies for coughing around the 8th min (too much chocolate).
Basically this analysis builds on top of the HSI and China A50 analysis that I've done previously and that I expect Tencent to move down to $246 and hits the lower channel line as well as 1x of wave (1) distance by 2023 year end.
NETEASE, down due to news or....?Today's news, "China to tighten controls on video gaming industry...."
Traders & investors's overreaction? Or the charts already say so?
I'm purely chartist, base on charts itself, I may sell too.
>> Price keep create LH.
>> Unable to break Parallel Channel
>> Market structure shifted.
Some traders / investors might look for opportunity. Are you one of them?
Personally won't catch red. Just left it drop until the rebounce signal appear.
When the market moves where, and how, and if - these are all unknown. The only thing which we can control is our risk. Focus on risk management!
Keep the long term vision.
Disclaimer: Mentioned stocks are solely based on own opinions for education and/or discussion purpose only. There's no buy and/or sell recommendation. Trading involve financial risk on your own. The author shall not be responsible for any losses or lost profits resulting from investment decisions based on the use of the information contained herein.
What will the fate of Tencent be like ?Read the latest article here
As a shareholder , I am not too happy. But as a parent who has two kids pretty glued to the phones , this might be the answer to help them stay away from their phones and do something else. To be fair, I am not born in the internet or mobile phone era where information are readily available online. Naturally, kids will resort to their device as the primary resource to seek answers.
Current price is supported at the 618 Fib Level but I am of the opinion that it will continue to falter for a while more. The next level of support is between 220 -230 where a small gap up happens on 10 Nov 2022. If we are lucky, we might see some support at 246 price level.
The confidence in China stock market is getting dimmer by the days and weeks as I hear more stories of people dumping shares and calling China uninvestable. For now, I am not selling since it is already in the red and this is a government regulations that is beyond what the Company can do.
The recent shares buyback program (read here here ) fails to move the market at all and now with this piece of bad news.
From Feb 2023 at its peak of 415, it has fallen more than 35% and the pessimism in the stock market is not helping at all. What will the fate of Tencent be like ?
$TENCENT shows sign of rebound with bottom formed$TENCENT shows sign of price bottoming on last Thursday with high volume supporting the price from going down lower. (Yellow square box)
Based on our analysis, the rebound signals further sets in with price recover more than 50% of the Friday morning price fall. This indicating demand is coming back in after 2 weeks retrace & selling pressure easing. Which could lead to a price rebound in the coming weeks.
Our trading method: we are looking into Bull CBBC on this potential short term rebound.
#hkex #supplydemandtrading #supportresistancestrategy #cbbc #highriskhighreturn #stocktrading
Has Tencent bottomed out ?We see from weekly chart that it has multiple support at current price of 315. For those who believes in the potential of this company can start to accumulate/buy now or wait for it to clear the resistance at 388.20.
Let's see how it goes ....
TENCENT(HK) : Midas Signal Appears with Big Green Bar1. Clear all drawings and indicators.
2. A horizontal resistance level, price reversed at here to form a false break (React Don't Predict).
3. Add BandofMidas from indicators. Use Midas factor of 9. (suitable for this chart)
4. Price fall into Midas zone and reversed. Midas signal came out today morning on 22Sep2023.
5. Midas trend line still in white. Hold position until pink trendline.
6. Plan your trade, risk reward ratio and position size. Cut loss is simply at today candlestick low.
Is Tencent glorious days over ?Read this latest article here
The main culprit can be attributed to the central government crackdown on the tech sector which almost kills the likes of Alibaba, Meituan and other listed tech companies. They have all suffered a fall in share prices of 50-65% from its peak.
In Tencent case, the withdrawal of its largest shareholder sent shivers to many retail investors who had been a great fan and support of Tencent for a long time. Hedge funds and other investment banks are either pulling out or putting their brakes on investing in China.
Nobody can read the mind of the Chinese government and their sudden and abrupt decision to interfere the private sectors to such a large extent had cause much commotion in the business community. Now, we hear the government is making a 180 degrees turn and declare they will be supporting the platform economy after slapping fines on both the two biggest companies , Alibaba and Tencent.
Of course, we can understand how scary it must be if these private companies become a monopoly and with hundreds of millions of users, they can control the mind of these people. It is not something any government wants. So, naturally , the government wants to step in and have a say , to have some form of control before things get too big, too ugly to handle later.
I will be watching closely 382 price level as that was the previous resistance level. Twice it has failed to break above (Jan and Apr 2023). Also, it will be releasing its quarterly earnings soon and that could be a catalyst for the share price to go higher. Let's wait and see, no hurry.....
Tencent Long at support level HSI overall looks weak BUT tencent at support level.
Good risk/reward
Pink line SL
Blue line tp. Can take 2/3 TP and let 1/3 run and adjust SL to entry price when move to blue line
Inverse head and shoulerBull flagging, in the context of a inverse head and shoulder, which appears to be holding critical support.
Upside to the next level is a great risk reward IMO, with a stop loss below the support.
Tencent LONGTencent has been struggling for a while to gain ground and has been in range after a sharp drop and rebound. Currently sitting at support and looks poised to move toward thr upside from here. Risk to reward looks pretty decent and once China starts to recover or stabilise its economy activity this stock is bound to go towards $75 range. The stock looks in healthy condition and is forming a head and shoulder pattern as an initial sign that it is gaining momentum.
Bull flag? Would love a retest of the baby blue box, i think I would have to take a shot on this.
That area of inflection seems quite important. If you're below it for long that's very very bad, but otherwise... aiming for a large leg up.
TENCENT - Tencent hitting some overhead supply this morning, RSI stretched, perhaps a rest to the moving averages...
It will be important that bulls hold onto the 20/200 ema's for bulls to have a chance of breaking out of the main channel.
Gaming is here to stay for a long long time.......Think of 3 things in your life that you are highly dependent on. Ready? 1 , 2 , 3
1. Social Media
2. Fast food
3. Mobile Phone
I did a quick survey among my circle of friends and came to the above conclusions (may not be conclusive). It is tough to imagine kids today will spend time to play Monopoly or Scrabble games (a luxury in my childhood time). Of course, there are cafes that cater to such demand but it is a niche.
Just take a look when you are out of your house. Are you not surrounded by a myriad of fast food outlets ? From KFC, Starbucks, Long John Silver, MacDonald, Burger King, etc
I see families going to MacDonald on weekends to take their breakfast whereas I belong to the "old school" and still prefer the old type coffeeshop where they served 2 soft boiled eggs, 1 cup of hot beverages and toasted bread.
I take public transport daily and without fail, at any time when I am on the phone, it is becoming a rarity to see someone holding a physical book to read. Really tough! 9 out of 10 are glued to the phones be it listening to music, playing games, reading online novels, watching drama or simply swiping contents on their Tiktok or other social media platforms.
How times have changed? Gone are the days where hard copy newspaper are found in households but these days, one get overwhelming amount of news, including fake ones and updated so often that it is becoming a nuisance!
Stickability - that is how these companies have made its consumers over time. Just like tobacco products. No matter how much fines the countries government imposed on these deep pockets firms, they always have excesses to stay above the line and made astronomical profits.
For Tencents, I continue to stay invested and looking at the chart, I believe a possible trend reversal is near or here. I will nibble some today and continue to monitor the chart.
Stay tuned and please DYODD.
What catalyst can drives Tencent shares ?Nov 16 2022 will be its Q3 earning report. You can choose to buy before or after depending on how comfortable you are with this company.
The China Tech stocks have been badly bashed due to the regulation clamp down. But, the business model remains strong. Let's be patient as the 20th CPC National Congress will end this week and we can expect to hear some positive news about where they are going to put their focus on moving forward.
I believe the digital economy has a lot of potential in China and more room to grow given the support of the Chinese government.
Please DYODD.
Key Markets: RatingsToday's Key Markets: Ratings
This screen gives us a flash view of the major markets.
Key Markets: RatingsKey Markets: Ratings
Yesterday evening I reviewed several names in my report THE SUM OF THE CHARTS. These included NPN, GLN, SSW, AMS and more.
For more research insights (including trade ideas) get in touch today.
TENCENT - ObservationTencent is having a relief rally this morning and looks to test the down sloping 20ema.
380-387 is a major resistance zone.
Tencent major 4.5% drop sending a break in structure Tencent break in uptrend structure - Bearish
Tencent has eventually broken below the Uptrend structure after fantastic upside.
This means, the price is now in free fall and is more likely to touch the previous support (brim level of the last Cup and Handle ).
21<7 price>200 - Reversal
RSI <50 - Bearish
Target 312
I just did an analysis on Naspers which we spoke about how Tencent has the correlation.
As Naspers correlates with Tencent and Prosus... We saw a sluggish market in Asia session with the banking holiday effect in America.
Hong Kong stocks slump as Chinese tech giants step up rivalries, HSBC in focus as market await corporate earnings boost. The Hang Seng Index declined 1.7 per cent to 20,529.49 at the close of Tuesday trading, the biggest drop in over a week. The Tech Index tumbled 3.6 per cent while the Shanghai Composite Index added 0.5 per cent. The benchmark index has lost nearly 5 per cent in the past two weeks as hedge funds withdrew from the market. With Tencent dropping 4.5% this is why we saw a large breakaway gap with Naspers.
Caution is needed with such volatility .
