Key Markets [Snapshot] - Friday 06 January 2023Key Markets
The attached screen is a snapshot of the major instruments I look at to start my day.
Accompanied are the momentum readings for multiple time frames starting at 15, 30, 60 and 120-min.
TCTZF trade ideas
Tencent probably “bottomed” as China’s major stock. 8/Nov/22.Tencent stock’s downtrend price probably stalled @ confluence zone of 1) lower support of parallel line 2)Demand Zone
700 6-month balance breakdown ahead?#marketprofile #volumeprofile #orderflow #chartanalysis #chartporn
HKEX:700
*****
I use this platform as a way to organize my thoughts and plan for my personal trading for the sessions to come. Do not misconstrue this newsletter as actionable trading advice. I am simply sharing my thoughts as a market operator through this newsletter, which helps me get my head straight and hold myself accountable for the next day. It is very possible that I am flat wrong in all of my scenarios.
TENCENT | Wave projection - Bullish Divergence Possible Rebound?Price action and chart pattern trading: a possible rebound scenario
> Elliott Wave projection - falling zigzag ABC correction wave channel now at C-wave 0.786 extension of A-wave at the key level support.
> Downtrend target reversal position of the major top HEAD & SHOULDERS with double bullish divergence signal
> Target rebound > SMMA 50 key upper resistance POC
Tencent offers 50% discount or more this Christmas !Read latest articles here , here and here .
There is a Chinese saying that "Big trees attract the wind" which means that a tech giant like Tencent has certainly has the Central government hawkish eyes on them for a long , long time. The recent slew of measures imposed on them over the last few months seems like a bottomless pit (as one of my followers said and he is getting discouraged ) and depressing.
I totally agreed as the picture was not what many shareholders envisioned barely 10 months ago......
I have written some time ago (please search my posts) on concentration vs diversification strategy in setting up your investment portfolio. Again, this is not a hard and fast rule. There are people who bought only one company , say Coca Cola or Amazon or even BTCUSD and become millionaires and multi-millionaires from it. For me, I like to diversify , buying into the specialty of different companies in their respective industries. Boeing is good in aircraft and maintenance but can't do what this tech company do and neither do the tech company wants to invest the time, money and resources to do what Boeing has done over the years.
Hopefully, out of 10 stocks you pick with solid and good fundamentals, one or two become a multi-bagger that gives you 5-10 folds returns and that to me is excellent news.
Please DYODD and understand your objectives of buying into this company. How long are you prepared to hold ? What are your capital reserves ? Do you have a cut loss strategy ? Are you prepared to average in when it drops 30%, 50% , 65% ? Why yes ? Why not ? Having these answers mentally prepared helps you to steer clear of irrational thoughts and act on impulse buying or merely following calls of others who may have different strategies with you.
Protection the profit and high volatilityThe second position opened at 290.96 and closed at 279.02, with the volatility rising I decide a protective approach, in order to protect my profit. But my vision is still Short, let's see what will happens
Short and profitThe Bear Market is continuing for this stock, and it seems don't want to stop let's see how far will go.
TencentVery weak. Wait until it stabilizes on the lower time frame. Gap at 305.80 close to being filled. Trading at more than 2 standard deviation over 20-days this ultra short term rebound possible.
TencentVery weak. Wait until it stabilizes on the lower time frame. Note the downside gap at 306.00 which has potential to close. Trading at 2 std deviation over 20-days thus rebound inti underside of EMA's is possible."
700 AnalysisPrice has played out as my last analysis. Price is currently mitigating the bearish POI at 321.0. On its way up, it created sell-side liquidity. Right now we should keep a lookout on the lower timeframe for confirmation to see if price wants to continue upwards. From here, the most probably move will be a bearish retracement to take out the sell-side liquidity.
700 AnalysisPrice is playing out precisely as analyzed. we have now filled the fair value gap at 310.2 and took the sell-side liquidity. From here, I'd expect the price to bounce off to the upside before continuing lower. We could also see price reverse from here.
Long Tencent - Rebound playSlightly risky play hence small position should suffice.
HSI + Futures are seem to have found bottom here, good position for breakout play, nice risk to reward ratio too.
700 AnalysisPrice is playing exactly as analyzed last week. Price took out sell-side liquidity below and is now deciding where to go. I'm leaning towards the price going lower to fill some price inefficiency at 310.2 before going higher.
Potential Bearish ContinuationOn the h4, with price moving in a descending trendline and below the ichimoku cloud, we have a bearish bias that price will continue to drop from the sell entry at 353.6 in line with the pullback resistance, 100% fibonacci projection and 127.2% fibonacci extension to the take profit at 297.2 at the swing low in line with the 78.6% fibonacci projection. Alternatively, price may revers off the sell entry and rise to the stop loss at the pullback resistance in line with the 100% fibonacci projection.
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700 AnalysisPrice is on a downtrend. Buy-side liquidity was grabbed a few days ago at 403.6, but price is unable to close above. Also note that price is building sell-side liquidity. I'm expecting price to take out sell-side liquidity to the downside. Other than this, price action is choppy here and could be the start of wyckoff accumulation schematic.
TCEHY/ATVI - Video Games#longshortcompetition Long: TCEHY / Short: ATVI
Not only do the technicals show a downtrend with support for Tencent. I for one can see the writing on the wall for activision blizzard . They aren't a "bad" company. But boy oh boy have they been taking L after L after L.
Whether its corporate structure, actual incompetence, etc. As someone who grew up on games from age 7-20, a few activision blizzard ones here and there, I've seen the gaming industry evolve MASSIVELY since I first started playing around 2007. Blizzard simply does not know what they're doing.
Diablo Immortal, Heroes of the Storm, Overwatch, World of Warcraft. All falling off a cliff overtime. Losing their player base and fans. Berkshire Hathaway is not going to change gamers. Don't even get me started on the work culture. The PR of this company AND the product have been dog water. I feel like it gets worse before it gets better for ATVI . I feel like throwing money at this can only work so much. They need to listen to actual gamers, their audience, not shareholders to dominate market share. I feel that this will be their biggest problem in the future, not monetization. A part of me wants to be wrong because I grew up with this company but I simply let the chart tell me what it wants to do.
Tencent has an enormous advantage. HUGE in China. Owns Riot Games, half of Epic Games, 5% of Activision Blizzard . Highest earning video game company in the world. They have a diversified gaming portfolio. Data Giant. Most popular game is League of Legends.
I do not ignore the issues of Tencent becoming unpopular, government issues with data, tax, fines, antitrust, etc. Both companies have black swan potential, Tencent more so. But overall If I had to hold either company for 2-3 years, its Tencent. I'm more bearish ATVI than Bullish TCHEY.
Also tradingview, I love your software <3.
Long TencentIf you've followed me in different places for a long time you'll remember me talking about wanting to buy a dip in this during mid 2021. Doing so now.
TENCENT HOLDINGS LIMITED (SELL)RSI divergence + trendline breakout + similarity to Bitcoin; so we can opt for a decrease
Tencent Holdings Ltd. (700-HK, BUY)1Q Miss and COVID Likely Delays Recovery, but Easing Regulations Should Support Investor Sentiment; Maintain BUY and Decreasing PT to HK$400
HKEX:700
We are maintaining our BUY rating but decreasing PT to HK$400 (was HK$475) after Tencent reported 1Q earnings miss and implied continued macro challenges for 2Q. Domestic game revenue declined 1% y/y. Int'l game revenue grew 8% CC y/y (vs. +24% in 4Q, excluding onetime accounting adjustments), accounting for 24% (flat y/y) of total game revenue. Advertising revenue took the biggest hit from COVID lockdowns and declined 18% y/y (vs. -13% in 4Q). FinTech+Cloud growth also decelerated to +10% y/y (vs. +25% in 4Q). On the last earnings call, mgmt. indicated a recovery could happen in 2H. But given the prolonged lockdowns in some cities including Shanghai and the weakness in recent macro data, we think the recovery will be further relayed to 4Q. In 1Q, the company repurchased 8,864,400 shares for approximately HKD3,697 million.
Overall, while the operating environment will likely remain challenging in the near term, we believe that, with strong operating cash flow, Tencent is better positioned to take the opportunity to build around its long-term strategic areas such as int'l games, Video Accounts, and SaaS offerings. Moreover, while it will take time to see the benefits, the Chinese government is easing regulations for the digital economy, which should give investors more confidence in the sector
TENCENT - Patience - Some constructive moves on Tencent as it regained the 50 day moving average
- Still early to turn completely bullish but will be watching closely to see how it develops
-- MANAGE YOUR RISK - -
Disclaimer: All ideas are my opinion and should not be taken as financial advice.
TENCENT (0700)Tencent is currently consolidating between HKD388 and HKD330. Hence a daily close above HKD388 would invite buying pressure and a potential retest of either HKD430 resistance or HKD480 resistance. However, a bearish scenario and a short selling opportunity could present itself shall Tencent closed below HKD330. First downside support is the year to date low of HKD297 with another one further lower at HKD260, a level last traded on 13 November 2018.
$TENCENT Key levels, Analysis & Targets$700 Key levels, Analysis & Targets
Price comes down to test at Fibo 78.6 - 94.2%
,and Price to rebound
