PALLADIUM trade ideas
Maybe toppingBreaking the support zone, and a structure wave B seems to be ready. Not crystal clear, but maybe ready.
So I expect to see a five-wave falling and the acceleration come.
There is a huge expectation because a would like to see a new low somewhere 1500, but I could compromise in a double bottom.
Palladium Rests Before It Makes Its Next MovePalladium trended really well from May 2019 to February 2020 and was set to reach the $3,000
round number but the current pandemic had other plans for the economy.
We soon saw a sharp decline in price, falling 47% in under 3 weeks, wiping out 6 months of gains
in a fraction of the time.
We are now seeing a different kind of behaviour in this commodity and price has become
unpredictable. This may be due to the fact that price may be entering consolidation following
the strong bullish trend.
During the trend, price used the 50sma as support to help it gain momentum to the upside, but now
the 50sma has turned to resistance which may help to force price down.
If we continue to see weakness then the next area of support is the $2,000 round number followed
by the 200sma.
Because we are seeing uncertainty in Palladium, the safest option is to wait for a break and close
above the current all-time high at $2,875 followed by the $3,000 round number.
While this commodity sets up for its next trend, which may take a while, we are focusing our attention
on forex pairs that are trending and we are also potentially looking for shorting opportunities in the stock market.
We will be looking at some shorting opportunities in our free Facebook group and we also cover this in our
4-Part series from the link below.
See below for more information on our trading techniques.
As always, keep it simple, keep it Sublime.
Palladium - showing the way forward?I'm interested in what is going on at the moment in this metal due mainly to it's decent correlation to the Nasdaq. Is there another leg up coming some time soon? The background chart is the Nasdaq 100.
Palladium - deeper correction before resuming uptrendPalladium has rallied strongly since a swift A wave down and I reckon this could be shaping up for a classic zigzag as this count suggests. Palladium has a decent correlation with the Nasdaq so if this count turns out to be right then we might also expect a good showing the US equities once again some time soon.
The anatomy of an Asset bubble (PALLADIUM)As shown in the chart, ive been talking about a palladium bubble for a very long time now. Now we can see the result of investor greed and momentum investing gone sour.
At section #1, the BIG parabolic move indicating we are close to the top.
#2, the loss of momentum, smart money has sold into the strength, the new high is created by greedy investors.
#3 A quick flash crash followed by a ''return to normal''. This final section were seeing now also reffered to as a ''bulltrap'' tends to fool many investors and for good reason, the volatility is astounding.
Be careful has as the retrace is mostly over, get ready to continue shorting as another down leg (#4) is almost sure to ensue.
XPDUSD - Best performing precious Metal ever?? A long term view on Palladium price over the next 1-5 years. #Toomanypips
Only a possibility based on probabilities - Trade carefully. Read analysis.
Palladium to $2755?Current market action don’t facilitate this projection, but I’m watching for a possible rejection of this area. No trade here yet, just watching.
palladium bubble implodes with the stock marketSee the idea below. as predicted this bubble collapse is a normal and healthy correction to the parabolic increase. Look for a good buying opportunity within the next year.
Palladium Looks Done (trendlines, MAs, and Fib)First is simple support and resistance. The black line is currently acting as resistance and there was a clear rejection from our that trendline. This trendline over 20 years old, it is not to be taken lightly. The purple trendline is a mere three years old but intersects the price action at the same wick.
There are also the orange support lines and I am looking for each of them to turn from support to resistance. If that should happen it would be a clear indication to go short. Much like the green circle, we could see price action struggle there for some time so tunneling down for some lower time frame structure and divergences would be a good idea. You want to think several moves ahead but only put your order one one or two steps ahead so your money isn't too tied up.
This move was extraordinarily impulsive and this over-performance should lead to extended under performance. Expect the 20M SMA to offer almost no protection/support when this thing gets moving and so far the 50M looks like a pace we will consolidate before moving lower.
After this move I would expect a massive amount of giveback. Palladium has given back over 78% of a move before and I would not be surprised to see it do the same again.
The interesting thing is in the last two recessions Palladium continued upward and had a blow off top while the S&P was already in decline. So, either this time is different and people are taking their profits early, or we might have one final up leg. Now, we have a short trading week and a couple of days to end off the year so I don't see much happening to reverse the monthly candle on Palladium is going to improve much.
Finally, I am not looking to trade this. I am doing this post because I am looking at the "Everything Bubble" versus the "Almost Everything Bubble" debate. Lots of people are looking for precious metals to be a store of value in potential hard economic times and the charts are showing a serious potential that precious metals are in a bubble that hasn't corrected yet. I have made the case in other posts that I think Gold is about to perform is C Elliot Wave, Silver is half way through the A wave, and bitcoin is part way through the C wave. Palladium looks like it is done with wave 5 and about to start its ABC, which is why I am looking for support lines to become resistance.
We are in a set of circumstances where precious metals have schizophrenic divergences between the charts and traders expectations. Look at silver. People are calling for all time highs, and I certainly see the case for it, but it certainly looks like we are in a fractal were we head lower, not higher. And this is on silver, which so many people are expecting to outperform gold based on a higher beta and the gold/silver ratio being an all time high favor of gold. The chart below looks like silver is going to drop to hell.
Look at Silver/Palladium. It looks like silver is going to gore palladium like a bull at this point, but the silver chart itself has some serious bearish problems. Silver looks like if you want to hold your metals while they drop in value it is the metal do to it in.
Palladium 5H, TD Seq 9; Short SetupChart says it all, descending triangle breakdown confirmed, first target lower channel TP lower 2490-ish.
XPDUSD long entry point.XPDUSD long entry point. In my analysis, I indicated that Palladium is making a correction. The analysis closely followed the movement of the exchange rate. My assumption is that the correction is slowly over. Therefore, the palladium may turn north again from this level.
PALLADIUM maintaining bullish momentumPalladium has produced a bearish divergence, followed by a possible bullish divergence, yellow fib EMA has been a clear support for some time for this bull run, lets see if it holds again. Currently stuck in between a strong horizontal support.
