HK50 trade ideas
Hang Seng...Temporarily neutral!Hello Traders,
Hang Seng is moving in a trend channel since the March low`s. This move is either a w-x-y or a w-x-y-x-z pattern in progress.
The latter pattern implies higher highs to come above the wave y high @ 26800 area to finish the move. The upper boundary of the channel could be a good target area for this idea. At 27278.5 price would meet the upper channel line and the down-slopping trendline (grey) which connects the ATH @ 33484 and the possible wave (2) high @ 30280, what would create a false breakout. At the 90 min chart, there is another target to observe. It is a wave „42 of lesser degree and it would end the countertrend move in this area (@ 25800 zones)!
On the other hand, if the @26800 has finished a wave C of (2) we have seen the first waves of a fresh decline within a wave (3) with lower price in the coming weeks ahead.
I'd like to see more clear patterns and evidence for a trade to one or the other side and stay temporarily neutral for Hang Seng!
Have a great week...
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment!
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
HSI *Update* 27200 is a real possibility ?!Probably slightly higher for a 'hunt come trap' move.
Refer to previous post in link.
Beware Fake Gurus out there !!!!While searching for some resources online, I came across a video that talks about fake gurus
out there who are making obscene amount of money from the students who bought into their
expensive courses, books, clubs, private coaching.....
Do a search on this Mr Dan XXX guy and be a judge yourself if this is for you... (Disclaimer applies) In the world of trading/investment, there too are fake gurus who proclaimed they can teach you how to make money from stock market, forex, etc easily.
It is a vicious cycle of sort where the students were misled into an illusion of getting rich, mastery of the skills over the weekend. I understand the hype, motivation and energy in that environment are high as students high 5 one another and you get influenced when you see the guy beside you taking money out from his wallet and paying the course on site. ....
You cannot think straight, to be honest. One thing led to another and before you knew it, you are heavily in debt and after 6 months or so, you are still at where you are.........
Now, let's take things in perspective. There are good trainers/coaches out there but you have to do your homework. Ask questions , lots of it what exactly will you be learning from his class. Do not be dazzled by the advertisment, the "only 7 seats left" promotion,etc. Trust me, if you call them the next day and ask to be enrolled, they will take you in with both hands albeit putting on a show on phone or in person.
I have said before that signals, strategies on understanding the market or instruments is only 10-20% of the equation. These are information that are available freely online IF you bother to do some research and be patient sifting the gem from the dirt.
If you are already tight in your finance and spending $3000-10,000 on a course seems exorbitant for you, then you may want to use this money instead as your investment capital.
Here are some steps you can take :
1. Open a LIVE and DEMO account
Practise for a minimum of 3-6 months on your demo accounts and ensure it is profitable before you place a single trade on the LIVE account.
2. LIVE account - Find a broker that charges zero or lowest commission on the instruments that you are buying/selling. Take note that the commissions eat into your profits, this are your operating costs of business.
3. Trade per day - Limit to only 1 trade per day no matter how tempting the market may be. This delay is useful in that it trains you to be patient and not get ahead of yourself and also help you to get you balance in the sense that you are not going to strike it rich with trading over night. So, it is not the quantity of trades that determine your profitability.
4. Use micro or mini accounts - This way, you limit your losses and allows you to participate in live trading that offers you the true experience of trading. You need to go through the roller coaster ride of emotions when you are in a live trade. The loss of $1 or $100 is real and that experience is powerful if you harnessed it to goo use.
5. STOP LOSS - From the start, from demo account to your first live trade, ALWAYS use a stop loss. Don't believe the gurus or anyone that you do not need one as the trend is very bullish and you are sure to make money. Take care of your losses or risks and the profits/rewards will come. Be familiar with the process first, get it engrained, develop a system , repeat and rinse before you scale up.
6. DIVERSIFY - Yes, I love gold and silver but I love stocks, forex, futures as well. No matter how good you think you are, when the market starts to take an abrupt turn due to a black swan or any event (eg. upcoming election), your 100% investment in gold will not be wipe out. If your gold is down 10%, your other asset class should be up so that your total portfolio is pretty balanced. This takes time to widen, for beginners , stick to one class first. For me, I start with EURUSD on a micro account earning cents and losing cents for quite a while. It was frustrating when you see and become more confident that your strategy starts to work but at the end , you only make $1 profit instead of $10 or $100. However, your risks are equally small as well, so understand that equation properly.
7. EMOTION CONTROL - To me, this is a lifetime journey. If you look at your life, most of the problem stems from how you handle your emotions be it anger, frustration, stress, disappointment, resentment, envy, hurt, regrets, etc. If we spend time to blame the external world (people or environment) , in a way , we have outsource the power to them. We absolve ourselves from responsibility. And without accepting responsibility, we never really learn, do we ?
You are too early or too late into the market has to do with your emotions more than the instrument itself. You read the news that Gold has shoot up to 2000 level and you entered 5 lots at one go, hoping to catch the next wave ONLY to be disappointed when it corrects to 1900 or so. Immediately you lost 5 x 100 points per contract and you are staring at the paper losses daily until it stabilised or recovered higher. If not, the pain of losing will be excruciating. Is it your greed to want to make it quick that led you to insert 5 contracts instead of 1? Only you know the answers.
8. Consistent with your strategy - If you are using Bollinger band and it works , then stick to it in both your demo and live accounts. If it suits you or you are very good at interpreting it and it yields you a high winning rate, then I see no reason to add on any new ones. For me, I started with moving average (you can see my charts 5 years ago) but I got confused in interpreting the price actions on different time frame). By God's grace, I stumbled on trend lines and I begin using it. It was much clearer and the more I use, the more familiar I become. You can see from my charts I keep it as clean as possible, NO volume, NO RSI, NO MACD, etc just plain old trend lines, support and resistance (horizontal trend lines really) and basic price action patterns like descending wedge, etc.
I hope this article has been useful for some traders/investors who are still jumping from one indicator to another, unsatisfied with the trainer/coach teaching as it make you pay and pay or feel betrayed/angry/disappointed with the market. Look, the Market will go on with or without our participation. We are merely a tiny cog in the system. Without it, the system will not fail.
The million dollar question is if you are not in trading/investment, can you make money elsewhere ? If the answer is a resounding YES, then hesitate no more. Get out of here and put your heart and soul into what you want to do , be it a online business or selling the next sizzling pizza.
To your success !
HSI Bear patter from 2018This is a prediction of HSI trend since 2018 using Wave Theory.
It was a complicated A wave with 5 waves inside caused almost 2 years.
A1 - Oct 2018
A2 - Apr 2019
A3 - Jul 2019
A4 - Jan 2020
A5 - Mar 2020 (the global pandemic concern)
Rebound from A5, It completed a B wave in 4 months.
BA - Apr 2020
BB - May 2020
BC - Jul 2020
Rapid rebound and completion of B wave, strong and quick correction C wave could be expected.
Personally it could be seen in Q4 2020.
Critical Level:
1st target: ~21139
2nd target: ~16800 - 17000
Last target: ~13300
LONG Lower Timeframe (after) wave E = Higher Timeframe wave D?Recent weeks' sell down looks constant but laboured. Soft rejection off a trendline in confluence with short term Daily chart 'after' wave E (ie Buy) and also in confluence with a higher Timeframe chart wave D (ie Buy). However Selling momentum seems relatively persistent. Projecting the end of this buy cycle to be in the box in the above chart. If it happens, look for Big sells from there.
Let's see the outcome.
Chart for higher TF is attached below. You decide!
HANG SENG : BUY BOTTOMHi everyone.
As long as weekly / daily bars do not close under the blue line , I believe monthly swing is valid and we may see higher prices .
Anyway, even though it may be the swing low for the next months , do not trade against the trend in the smaller time frame.
Best of luck :-)
Hang Seng...The first waves of a decline!Hello Traders,
Hang Seng and the Hang Seng short index hasn't made net progress in the latter week. This should imply a pause in a downtrend. If so, Hang Seng is on the verge to break to the wave ((e)) of „B“ low @ 23685, which was the low of the triangle pattern. The more bearish potential exists!
A break of the 24526 area (denoted with the red arrow) implies further weakness for HS and opens the door to the mentioned area before.
I have drawn a trend channel o show how HS is moving lower. One possibility is, that HS will decline in one more down-up-down sequence to complete the first waves of wave ((1)) and a pullback in a wave ((2)) and retrace a 0.5 – 0.618 Fibonacci of the decline. But there is still much time to go for this scenario.
A move above the high @ 26284 – 26347 would lower the count a minimum.
Have a great Sunday...
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment!
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
HSI possible long Monthly wick.
Next month looking to fill wick.
Weekly ICI - believe it has come to the end of the retracement and started to turn.
4h waiting for market to turn bullish before buying.
Elliott Wave View: Hang Seng Index Correction In ProgressHang Seng 15 minutes chart below shows that the index has extended lower from July 7 peak. The decline is unfolding as a double three Elliott Wave Structure. From July 7 high, wave W ended at 25570.36 low. The bounce in wave X ended at 26103.84 high. The pair then extended lower in wave Y, which ended at 24766.17 low. This completed wave (W) in larger degree. The decline reached the blue box area, which is the 100 – 123.6% extension of wave W-X. From that blue box, the Index did a 3 waves bounce in wave (X), which ended at 25772.41 high. The bounce unfolded as zig-zag Elliott Wave Structure.
Afterwards, the Index continued its decline and broke below previous wave (W) low. This confirms that the next leg lower in wave (Y) is already in progress. Down from wave (X) high, the index extended lower in wave A and ended at 24526.91 low. Wave A low ended at 61.8-76.4% extension of wave (W)-(X). From there, the index is currently doing a bounce in wave B. While below 25772.41 high, the bounce in 3,7 or 11 swings is expected to fail. The index then can do another leg lower in wave C before ending wave (Y) in the larger degree. The 100-161.8% extension of (W)-(X) where (Y) can end is between 22486-23743 area.
Hang Seng...The first waves of a decline?Hello Traders,
Hang Seng has finished a double-zigzag @ 26782 on July 7. The index is declining in the first waves of wave „3“, which would bring HS below it`s March 19 low @ 21139.
the alternate view implies a corrective setback within a wave „2“ and new highs are probably next to expect!
At my later analysis, I spoke about the „Hang Seng Short Index“. This index is moving inverted to the behavior of Hang Seng.
The Short index made a higher low@ July 7 @4692. Since then, Hang Seng Short index is advancing higher, while Hang Seng is in a declining phase. If this behavior is relevant, Hang Seng will make lower lows as long as the July 7 high is in place. That means on the other hand, that the Short index is pushing higher.
An area for this case should be around the 5393 levels, for Hang Seng it would be around 23685 zones (denoted with the red arrow). The more bearish potential exists.
This interpretation is valid, as long as the high @ 26374 is in place. Any advance above the July 7 high @ 26782 would void the bearish forecast.
Have a great week...
ruebennase
Feel free to ask or comment!
Trading this analysis is at your own risk!
Hong Kong Stock Index (Go With The Flow)View On Hong Kong Stock Index (21 JULY 2020)
HSI has met with strong support near the 25k level and it is priming to burst back up. 25.5k and 25,990 are resistant.
DO not short at this moment.
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Hang Seng (HSI) - Short IdeaI think most people know the Macro drivers for the short. Well, here are technical ones.
Good Luck Hong Kong.
Shooting Star at 61.8% Fib level.
Weekly 200 EMA
Previous resistance.
