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NAS100 trade ideas

NAS100 DEC 23 -27 MARKET BREAKDOWNAnalysis Based on the Chart: 1. Bullish Context: The overall trend is bullish, and the market has recently pulled back to a key support zone: • The 50% Fibonacci retracement level aligns with both historical support and a daily bullish order block (OB). • Price action respecting this level suggests a potential continuation to the upside. 2. Daily Break of Structure (BOS): The BOS on the daily timeframe confirms a shift to bullish momentum, indicating that higher highs could be the next target. 3. Liquidity Sweep: The sharp pullback appears to have cleared out liquidity (stop-loss clusters from retail traders) below the recent swing low. This is a common pattern before a bullish push. 4. Confluences for Entry: • The pullback to the Fibonacci 50% level gives a high-probability entry point. • The price has respected both dynamic support (trendline) and horizontal support at the bullish OB.
FX:NAS100Long
by Saint876
3
NAS100USD: Targeting Low-Resistance Liquidity ZonesGreetings Traders! In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, we observe a recent bullish shift in price action, presenting opportunities to capitalize on buying setups. Wednesday’s volatile move to the downside, triggered by the FOMC announcement, created a liquidity void—an inefficiency in price delivery where only sell-side action was present. The market tends to revisit these zones to rebalance, making them key areas of interest. This liquidity void also qualifies as a low-resistance liquidity zone, where minimal obstacles exist to impede price movement. Consequently, we aim to target price progression through this zone until reaching the high-resistance liquidity zone, the last area where significant price resistance occurred. Key Observations: Institutional Perspective: Price moved from a discount zone, where institutions order-paired against sell stops, indicating they are now running their trades toward fair value. Fair Value Areas: Liquidity voids and fair value gaps are prime zones for institutions to scale out of their positions, making them strategic targets for our trades. Trading Strategy: We will look for confirmation to align with bullish institutional order flow and target the liquidity void as a fair value zone. The FOMC-induced displacement provides a clear inefficiency that institutions are likely to use to balance their positions. Let’s analyze the price action carefully and adapt as the market develops. Share your thoughts or questions in the comments, and let’s navigate the markets together! Kind Regards, The Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by The_Archi-tect
10
Technical Analysis of NASDAQ 100 Index (4-Hour Chart) Key Support and Resistance Levels Key Support Levels: The 20,566 level serves as the current support zone. This level is critical for determining the future direction of the index. If this level is breached, the next support lies around 20,250. Key Resistance Levels: The first resistance zone is between 21,329-21,381, which aligns with the 20-period moving average and acts as a significant hurdle for upward movement. Upon breaking this resistance, the next target is around 22,106, corresponding to the upper band of the Bollinger Bands indicator. Potential Scenarios 1. Bullish Scenario: If the price rebounds from the 20,566 support zone, the index is expected to initially move towards the 21,381 resistance level. A successful breakout of this level could push the index toward its next target at 22,106. Confirmation signals, such as bullish patterns or increased buying volume, would strengthen this scenario. 2. Bearish Scenario: If the 20,566 support zone is breached, the index could further decline toward the 20,250 level. Breaking this support would indicate significant market weakness and potential continuation of the downtrend. Indicator Analysis Bollinger Bands: The price has reached the lower Bollinger Band, typically signaling a potential reversal. However, continued downward movement is possible if the lower band is decisively broken. 20-Period Moving Average (Blue Line): This moving average acts as dynamic resistance. A breakout above this level may signal a short-term trend reversal. Conclusion and Trading Suggestions Considering the NASDAQ 100 index's position near the 20,566 support level, traders should watch for reversal signals. If confirmation of a rebound (e.g., increased trading volume or formation of reversal patterns) occurs, entering long positions near this area could be favorable. However, if this support is breached, it is advisable to avoid long trades and look for lower levels for market entry. Recommendations: Enter long positions near the 20,566 level with a stop-loss below 20,500. Initial upside target: 21,381. Manage risk by setting appropriate stop-loss levels and monitoring price behavior near critical zones.
OANDA:NAS100USDLong
by arongroups
NASDAQ: Dancing on the Edge of a Techno-Financial TightropeMarket Overview The NASDAQ-100 (NDX) has recently corrected by approximately 5.5% from its all-time high of 22,133 on December 16, 2024. This comes after a historic rally driven by resilient megacap technology stocks, robust earnings, and the continued dominance of AI-led innovation. Despite the correction, the index remains up 18% year-to-date, outpacing broader indices like the S&P 500, fueled by optimism around productivity-enhancing technologies. However, macroeconomic and geopolitical headwinds could temper this growth into 2025. Technical Analysis Trendlines Short-Term: The NDX remains in a rising trend channel since March 2023, with the lower boundary around 20,500 acting as critical support. A recent breach of its 21-day moving average suggests growing bearish momentum. Long-Term: The index's long-term trendline, extending from the pandemic lows in 2020, remains intact, underscoring investor confidence in the broader tech narrative. Key Levels Support Immediate support: 20,790 (50-day moving average). Strong support: 20,500 (trendline and Fibonacci retracement zone). Resistance Near-term resistance: 21,900 (upper boundary of rising wedge). Critical resistance: 22,133 (all-time high). Momentum Indicators RSI: Declining from overbought territory (currently at 64), signaling potential for further downside before resetting to neutral. MACD: A bearish crossover suggests weakening momentum in the near term. Macroeconomic Context Interest Rates The Federal Reserve has maintained its hawkish stance, with the terminal rate hovering around 5.75%. While inflation has moderated to 2.4%, core inflation remains sticky at 2.8%, keeping rate cuts off the table until mid-2025. Elevated borrowing costs could weigh on tech valuations, particularly for growth companies reliant on cheap capital. Economic Growth U.S. GDP growth is forecasted to decelerate from 2.6% in 2024 to 1.8% in 2025, reflecting weaker consumer spending and tighter financial conditions. This slowdown could dampen earnings growth across the NASDAQ-100 constituents. Corporate Earnings Analysts expect NDX earnings growth of 8% in 2025, down from the blistering 14% in 2024, as cost pressures and a plateauing of AI-related tailwinds take hold. Geopolitical Landscape China-U.S. Relations Increasing tensions over Taiwan and heightened scrutiny of U.S. tech exports to China remain a wildcard. Any escalation could disrupt semiconductor supply chains and impact heavyweights like Nvidia and AMD. Europe Persistent instability in Eastern Europe and ongoing energy challenges pose risks to multinational tech firms with significant operations or customers in the region. Middle East Geopolitical uncertainty stemming from conflicts in the Middle East has kept oil prices elevated (~$95/barrel). Higher energy costs could indirectly affect tech earnings by squeezing consumer and corporate budgets. 2025 Outlook Base Case The NASDAQ-100 ends 2025 up 8–12%, driven by resilient demand for cloud computing, generative AI, and green technology innovations. Support from stable core earnings growth and moderating inflation provides a favorable backdrop. Bear Case Prolonged high interest rates, coupled with weaker-than-expected global growth, lead to a flat or mildly negative year. Key risks include geopolitical flare-ups, regulatory actions on Big Tech, and waning investor enthusiasm for speculative assets. Bull Case A dovish pivot by the Federal Reserve in H2 2025, alongside breakthrough advancements in AI or biotechnology, propels the index to new highs (~24,000). Conclusion The NASDAQ-100 is entering 2025 with a cautiously optimistic outlook, balanced between robust technological trends and mounting macro/geopolitical risks. Investors should monitor key support at 20,500 and resistance at 21,900 as barometers of sentiment. While near-term volatility is likely, the index remains a cornerstone for long-term growth portfolios. For 2025, the focus is on being smart: diligent monitoring, disciplined allocations, and adapting to shifting conditions. "There are three ways to make a living in this business: be first, be smarter, or cheat." – John Tuld – Margin Call (2011)
NASDAQ:NDXLong
by WHSelfInvest
NASDAQ Bearish Momentum Persists as Price Drops 2.7% in 24 HoursTechnical Analysis The price has dropped more than 2.7% in the last 24 hours. The bearish trend, as highlighted in the previous analysis, remains intact. The price is likely to stabilize within the bearish trend, targeting 20,670 and 20,550, as long as it trades below 20,990. However, a bullish correction toward 20,860 or 20,990 is possible, particularly if the price stabilizes above 20,860. Key Levels: Pivot Point: 20860 Resistance Levels: 20990, 21080, 21210 Support Levels: 20780, 20670, 20550 Trend Outlook: - Bearish Momentum with stability below 20990 - Bullish Momentum by stability above 20990 Previous idea:
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by SroshMayi
Nasdaq Intraday Review - Thursday 19 Dec 2024I trade Nasdaq exclusively Trading in GMT time zone Sharing my post day review and analysis in case it can help you! Did my analysis at +- 5:30 am GMT (00:30 am EST) Economic news - None - FOMC on Wednesday night News - None Directional bias - BUY Note: Did not trade FOMC on Wednesday, because generally I don’t like to trade news. For me, it’s more of a gamble than a situation where I can stack the probabilities in my favour. Morning analysis: FOMC reaction was huge, with price plummeting through the floor. 4H and Daily fib levels were all smashed. The last remaining fib level in the morning was the W 0.618 fib level. A huge DT had formed on the D TF (marked in green lines). D neckline was broken down and price had travelled to the profit target zone (as marked by the green vertical line). Price had touched the W 0.618 fib level and moved back up, showing a strong reaction to this last line of defence for the bulls. In this case, because price had reached profit target, I was looking for a buy. If price had not yet reached profit target, I would have been cautious with a buy because I have noted how respectful Nasdaq can be of profit targets. It is normally the case that price would re-test the neckline of the market pattern just broken, once price has reached profit target, so I felt confident with a buy. As the morning progressed a falling wedge pattern started forming (marked with blue lines). These usually break upwards, but can break either direction. Price broke the pattern upwards and I entered at the lower hand icon. Confirmations: 1. Market pattern - Two market patterns where at play here. A falling wedge broken upwards + DB on the 1H TF with the neckline (drawn in orange) broken upwards. 2. S&R - Market patterns where forming at a weekly S&R area. 3. Trend - Buy is in the same direction as the overall market trend. DB was forming right at the uptrend line area on the bigger timeframes (marked with the diagonal red line). Temporary downtrend line of falling wedge broken upwards 4. Fib - Long wick candle spike down to W 0.618 fib level 5. Candlesticks - Long wick candle showing a strong reaction to the W 0.618 fib level. Mental stop was placed at the thick pink line, i.e. half of the height of the DB. Price moved up well. Now for setting TP's. Setting take profit in these situations is difficult. Usually, I would use the fib level that I entered on, to provide guidance as to TP1 and TP2 (fib extensions). But in this case, we are not in a trending market and aiming for the Weekly TP (because that is the fib level at play here) is too ambitious. The highlighted green areas are very strong sell areas of confluence. I set these two areas as potential take profit zones. Depending how strong bulls are, they may push all the way to the D neckline and push through, or they may just touch an EMA or sell fib level and price reverses downwards. I have left a lot of money on the table in these scenarios before, by just assuming bulls will break the D neckline back upwards. So was determined today to learn from my past mistakes. I ended up taking partial profit at +- 1000 pips, because I didnt like the strong reaction to the 30min EMA. With Nas, if price is VERY bullish or bearish, then price will react to the 30 EMA. So the fact that bears were so prominent at the 30 EMA, made me want to lock in some profits. Price continued to move up and had a strong reaction to the D EMA (where it was at that time in history). Price had not even reached the area of sell confluence marked in green, and we were seeing a strong bearish push. Decided to take profit again at the top hand icon (+- 1'700 pips) and leave a runner open. Runner got taken out at entry when price came tumbling down. I am happy with my take profit decisions. This was the first time that I capitalised correctly on the move I was looking for. I feel this proves the value of screen time and really trying to make sense of how price is reacting in various situations. You may feel no progress at first, but in the long run, you will slowly start handling situations better and better. Looks now like the market has turned bearish. Weekly EMA and fist W fib level are very far down. Uptrend line on high TF's is also broken. The buy wont just happen in a heart beat (in my opinion). Price will first start consolidating as bulls build strength and momentum and make a reversal pattern on the higher TF's before truly making a big move up. Hope you had a good day! If you were in with a sell on FOMC, its caviar and champagne for the holiday season! ;) Stats: The total bullish move for the day was 2'572 pips: I captured 66% (1'700pips) of the total move - Happy with that! Abbreviations: TF = timeframe TP = take profit 1H = 1 hour 4H = 4 hour D = day W = week M = month S&R = support & resistance H&S = head & shoulders EMA = exponential moving average SL = stop loss
PEPPERSTONE:NAS100
by Jinxx84
Bearish drop?NAS100 has reacted off the resistance level which is a pullback resistance and could drop from this level to our take profit. Entry: 21,414.83 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Stop loss: 21,813.15 Why we like it: There is a pullback resistance level. Take profit: 20,774.05 Why we like it: There is an overlap support level that lines up with the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. Enjoying your TradingView experience? Review us! Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
VANTAGE:NAS100Short
by VantageMarkets
NAS100USD: Strategic Selling Amidst Bearish MomentumGreetings Traders! In today’s analysis of NAS100USD, we reflect on yesterday’s high volatility, which triggered a significant displacement to the downside. Such strong movements often leave inefficiencies in price action that may be revisited in the near future. However, the prevailing bearish institutional order flow suggests opportunities to capitalize on selling setups. Key Observations: 1. Consolidation in Premium Zones: Currently, price is consolidating at a premium level, providing an optimal zone to initiate sell positions. Following the principle of selling in premium and buying in discount, this setup aligns with institutional trading strategies. 2. Bearish Momentum: The bearish structure remains intact, reinforcing the likelihood of price continuing its descent toward discount zones. 3. Potential Reversals in Discount: When price reaches discount levels, it is possible for a reversal back into premium zones. This necessitates a strategic and observant approach to anticipate the next market move. Trading Strategy: Entry: Seek confirmation to sell at premium levels during this consolidation phase. Target: Discount zones, where sell-side liquidity resides, will serve as the primary profit-taking area. As always, remain vigilant and adaptive to market dynamics. If you have insights or questions, feel free to share them in the comments. Let’s learn and grow together! Kind Regards, The Architect
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by The_Archi-tect
NASDAQFed's Hawkish Stance Sparks Fears ofSustained 4%Rate FloorMarkets Fear Fed's 4% Floor as Dollar Surges While the Federal Reserve's "hawkish cut" on Thursday was widely anticipated, markets are now concerned that the 4% policy rate will act as a floor for the coming year, with no further easing expected until midyear or later. Technical Analysis The price dropped approximately 4.5% yesterday ahead of the Fed's rate decision. Today, the market corrected to the resistance level of 21,420, after which it is likely to drop back toward 21,215, particularly if it stabilizes below 21,420. Stability below 21,420 will maintain a bearish trend, targeting 21,280 and 21,215. A break below 21,215, confirmed by a 4-hour candle close, could push the price further down toward 20,990. Key Levels Pivot Point: 21420 Resistance Levels: 21530, 21620, 21770 Support Levels: 21290, 21215, 20990 Trend Outlook Bearish Momentum: Likely to persist with stability below 21,420. Bullish Momentum: Possible if stability above 21,420 is achieved.
OANDA:NAS100USDShort
by SroshMayi
1
Nasdaq 100: Make-or-Break Trendline SupportChart Analysis: The US 100 Index has pulled back from recent highs but remains above its rising trendline (black), maintaining the broader bullish structure. 1️⃣ Rising Trendline: The trendline, originating from the August lows, has been a key dynamic support for the index. Price is currently testing this level around 21,150, making it a critical area to watch. 2️⃣ Moving Averages: 50-day SMA (blue): The index remains above the 50-day SMA at 20,818, confirming short-term bullish momentum. 200-day SMA (red): Positioned at 19,438, reflecting a long-term bullish trend. 3️⃣ Momentum Indicators: RSI: At 51.88, signaling neutral momentum, giving room for the index to either bounce or consolidate further. MACD: The MACD line has turned downward, suggesting weakening bullish momentum but no decisive bearish crossover yet. What to Watch: A bounce from the trendline could signal a continuation of the uptrend, with immediate resistance near the recent highs around 21,600. A break below the trendline may shift attention to the 50-day SMA or the 20,800 level for potential support. The US 100 Index remains within a broader bullish structure, with the rising trendline acting as a critical support level for near-term price action. -MW
FOREXCOM:NAS100
by FOREXcom
1