NAS100 Top-Down Analysis and Weekly Outlook1. Price Structure and Market Phases
Accumulation Phase (Phase A to Phase C)
The price has been moving through an Accumulation Phase, characterized by:
Selling Climax (SC): The lowest price level where selling pressure exhausted, marked near 20,254.0.
Automatic Rally (AR): A reactionary upward move after SC, reaching approximately 20,650.5, signaling temporary buying interest.
Secondary Test (ST): A retest near the SC zone to confirm the support region before entering Phase B.
The structure is building strength, with low-volume tests (ST in Phase B) hinting at preparation for a potential breakout.
Phase B: Building Cause
Within this phase, the price oscillates in a range, indicating institutional accumulation. Key highlights:
Support line is established at 20,322.1 (also near the SC zone).
Resistance Line appears around 20,880.0, which aligns with Fibonacci retracement and psychological levels.
2. Key Price Levels
Support Levels
20,322.1: A major support level and the lower boundary of the current accumulation zone.
20,254.0: The absolute low (SC) and the invalidation point for a bullish scenario. A breakdown here would confirm a bearish continuation.
Resistance Levels
20,880.0: The upper boundary of the current range and a critical zone for a potential breakout.
21,245.7: A key invalidation level for Wave 1, which marks a shift to a new upward structure if broken.
3. Volume Profile Insights
Point of Control (POC)
20,257.1: The POC from the horizontal volume profile, indicating the area of highest trading activity and likely a magnet for price.
Volume Distribution
Low-volume pockets near 20,322.1 to 20,254.0 suggest minimal resistance if the price falls, while heavier activity near 20,650.5 may act as resistance during retracements.
4. Fibonacci Levels and Key Retracements
Fibonacci Extensions and Retracements
0.618 Retracement (20,853.3): Marks a shallow correction point and a likely resistance zone for bearish pullbacks.
0.5 Retracement (20,749.9): Frequently observed as a support/resistance level during corrective waves.
0.382 Retracement (20,650.5): Short-term support/resistance where minor reactions are expected.
5. Price Action and Market Structure
Wave Analysis
Wave ii and Wave iii are actively forming. The price is currently in a corrective Wave iv, which is shallow and aligns with Fibonacci retracement zones.
A projected Wave v is expected to test the 20,880.0 - 21,033.5 zone, which aligns with resistance from the volume profile and Fibonacci levels.
Breakout and Retest Levels
If the price closes above 20,880.0, it may signal the beginning of a larger upward move into the distribution phase or bullish SOS (Sign of Strength).
Failing to hold above 20,322.1 will increase bearish momentum, invalidating the bullish accumulation.
Change of Character (CHoCH)
The first CHoCH has already occurred with a higher low forming at 20,254.0, confirming potential bullish intent.
A higher high above 20,880.0 will further confirm the bullish transition.
6. Invalidation and Risk Management
Bullish Invalidation
A breakdown below 20,254.0 negates the bullish outlook and suggests continuation of the downward trend.
Wave Invalidation
Wave 1 invalidation is set at 21,245.7. A failure to reach this level while respecting corrective wave structures indicates bearish exhaustion.
7. Projected Scenarios
Bullish Case
The price will form a higher low near 20,322.1 and break resistance at 20,880.0, targeting:
21,033.5 (Wave v extension).
Further upside toward 21,245.7 if momentum continues.
Bearish Case
Failure to hold support at 20,322.1 will trigger a retest of 20,254.0, possibly leading to:
A breakdown into lower lows, invalidating the accumulation phase and extending the downtrend.
8. Trading Implications
Buy Zone
Near 20,322.1, as this level aligns with support and signs of accumulation.
Confirmations of bullish reversal around 20,650.5 and 20,749.9 are potential entry zones.
Targets
Short-term: 20,880.0.
Medium-term: 21,033.5 to 21,245.7.
Stop-Loss Levels
Below 20,254.0, as this invalidates the bullish scenario.
Sell Opportunities
At resistance levels (20,880.0, 21,033.5) if the price shows rejection and bearish reversal signals.
