Nasdaq analysis: 21-MAR-2025Good morning, traders! Today's Nasdaq analysis will help you achieve your trading goals. Let's work together towards success.
NAS100 trade ideas
NAS100 - Potential TargetsHow I see it in the shorter term:
KEY LEVEL OF CONFLUENCE, NOW SUPPORT @ 19960.00
Potential "LONG" -
TP 1 = 20490.00
TP 2 = 20834.00
Potential "SHORT" - To Fill Imbalance
(Requires a break and hold below KEY SUPPORT)
TP 1 = 19975.00
Keynote:
Stocks had a GAP weekly open, which indicates potential bullish momentum.
At some point the GAP needs to be filled.
Thank you for taking the time to study my analysis
US100 Technical Analysis by TradingDONI’ve spotted CAPITALCOM:US100 two confirmations with NQ: first, the trend (marked in white), and second, the +AA signal. With these in place, I’m expecting bullish momentum on the NQ. The initial target is 19,730, and if we get a strong bullish close followed by some rejection, I’m looking for the price to reach 19,830.
BULLISH SCENARIO (LOWER TF)While a bearish butterfly is in play, I'm currently observing a possible short term bounce for NASDAQ by observing the White Swan Harmonic.. It has to complete the BC Leg first. Failure to do so will invalidate the White Swan Harmonic..
NQ: End of day analysisAs expected, NQ is retracing up. We got a strong green daily candle. A continuation up is expected.
I added Fib levels for additional confluence. The 50% retrace is a perfect area to short it.
In terms of news, tomorrow is light unless Trump intervenes.
US100/NASDAQ100/QQQ same thing, failed to reclaim the trendlineSame trendline retest failed on the US100/QQQ after 3 attempts. I suspect lower low will be happening before we bounce.
US100 Downtrend Analysis & Key LevelsAfter analysing the US100 chart, the index has been trading within a downtrend channel since Friday, February 21, 2025. After dropping to 19,131, it attempted a recovery but faced strong resistance at 19,957, leading to a decline. As the saying goes, “ Follow the trend—the trend is your friend. ” Given the ongoing downtrend, US100 may continue to decline toward the next strong support level at 18,489.
Ensure you adhere to proper risk management for long-term success.
Happy Trading
NDX Trading-RoadMap
Weekly
• Context: Overall uptrend from 2022 is intact but under pressure as price slipped below some key weekly moving averages and trendline supports.
• Key Takeaway: The bigger picture has not fully turned bearish yet, but momentum has cooled. If the weekly chart remains above ~17,800–18,000, that “long‐term uptrend” viewpoint is still viable.
Daily
• Trend: Lower highs and lower lows (short‐term downtrend). Price is below the 200‐day SMA (~20,300) and also below the 50/100‐day SMAs (~21,000).
• Focus: Watch if price can reclaim the 200‐day SMA (20,200–20,700 zone) on a daily closing basis. That’s a major pivot for a potential reversal to the upside.
• Support: 19,000–19,200 is the near‐term floor; losing that puts 18,400–18,800 in play.
• Resistance: 19,900–20,100 (initial supply), then 20,200–20,700 (200‐day + Fib).
4H (Shorter‐Term)
• Recent Development: A bounce off ~19,150. MACD turned bullish on 4H, RSI improved from oversold.
• Trendline: The steep 4H downtrend line has been broken; price is testing overhead supply near 19,900–20,000.
• Key Focus: Does the 4H momentum carry price above 20,000+? If so, next stops are 20,200–20,700. If it stalls, watch for a return to ~19,200 or lower.
2. Key Levels to Track
1. Immediate Support Zones
• 19,600–19,700: Minor 4H pivot / mid Bollinger band on 4H.
• 19,000–19,200: Major short‐term floor; also a bullish order block from prior lows.
2. Deeper Supports
• 18,400–18,800: Strong demand if 19k fails.
• 17,800–18,000: Critical weekly zone, where the longer‐term uptrend would truly be at risk.
3. Immediate Resistance Zones
• 19,900–20,100: Overhead supply on Daily/4H; first real challenge for bulls.
• 20,200–20,700: Major confluence (200‐day SMA, Bollinger mid band on Daily, Ichimoku lower cloud boundary).
• 21,000–22,200: Larger daily/weekly supply if the index fully recovers.
4. Fibonacci Confluences
• From the larger swing: 50% retracement ~19,893.
• From the smaller daily swing: 23.6% ~19,886, 50% ~20,706.
• Keep an eye if price clusters or reverses around these fib levels.
3. Indicators You’ll Watch Each Day
• Daily Ichimoku: Price below the cloud → short‐term bias still bearish. A daily close back inside/above the cloud (~20,200–20,400) would be a significant bullish sign.
• Daily MACD: Still negative, but flattening. A bullish crossover on the daily could confirm the 4H bounce is turning into a multi‐day uptrend.
• Daily RSI: Hovering near 40–45. If it reclaims 50+, that’s a better sign of daily upside momentum.
• 4H MACD: Already bullish; watch if it remains that way or starts to roll over near resistance.
• 4H RSI: Currently ~45–50 or slightly higher. Over 60 would reinforce short‐term upside.
• Volume / OBV: See if up moves come on higher volume or if OBV slopes upward. That would show genuine buying pressure.
4. Daily Checklist / “If‐Then” Triggers
Use this section as a morning or intraday reference when you see price approaching certain zones.
A) Bullish Attempt
• IF price breaks above ~19,900–20,000 THEN:
• Check for 4H or daily candle close above that zone.
• Confirm if 4H MACD/RSI remain bullish.
• Potential next target: ~20,200–20,700.
• IF price subsequently closes above 20,200–20,300 THEN:
• This reclaims the 200‐day SMA → a bigger shift to bullish.
• Daily RSI likely near or above 50.
• Next target: ~21,000–21,500, with an eye on the 22k supply zone.
• IF 19,600–19,700 holds as support on a pullback, THEN watch for 4H bullish patterns to confirm a bounce. Potential to re‐attempt 19,900–20,000.
B) Bearish Continuation
• IF price rejects ~19,900–20,100 (4H or daily closes back under 19,600) THEN:
• Expect a drift back to test 19,200–19,000.
• Check if 4H RSI crosses below 40, MACD turns down again.
• If that zone fails, 18,800–18,400 is next support.
• IF daily closes below 19,000 THEN:
• The bullish bounce scenario is invalidated.
• Target a deeper move to 18,400–18,800, possibly 18,000 if momentum is strong.
5. What to Avoid
1. Over‐Leveraging: With the index near pivotal levels, volatility can spike. Keep position sizes within your risk tolerance.
2. Chasing Mid‐Zone: If price is between major zones (e.g., 19,600–19,700), entering randomly without a clear signal can lead to whipsaws. Wait for a confirmed break or test of a zone.
3. Ignoring Conflicting Timeframes: Weekly vs. Daily vs. 4H may conflict. If you see a 4H bullish signal but daily is still firmly bearish, manage risk accordingly (e.g., smaller size, quicker profit targets).
6. Risk Management & Positioning
• Stop Placement:
• For short‐term trades, use 4H ATR (~300 points) or place stops just beyond key swing highs/lows.
• For swing trades, consider daily ATR (~400–450 points) to avoid normal intraday noise.
• Targets:
• Set at least two profit objectives. For bullish trades, T1 near 20,200–20,300, T2 near 21k+. For bearish trades, T1 near 19k, T2 near 18.4k.
• Moving Stops to Breakeven:
• Once T1 is reached or a clear pivot forms in your favor, consider moving your stop to entry to lock in any open profit.
7. Potential News/Events That May Override Technicals
• U.S. Economic Data: Watch for major releases (CPI, Fed announcements, Tech sector earnings). These can create sudden volatility that breaks your technical zones.
• Global Sentiment Shifts: If risk aversion hits equity markets broadly, NDX could gap lower through supports. Alternatively, any strong bullish news in major tech names could swiftly break resistances.
8. Weekly Summary Action Plan
1. Check Weekly & Daily:
• Are we still below the daily 200‐SMA (~20,300)? If yes, short‐term momentum is likely bearish unless proven otherwise by the 4H breakout.
• Is the index forming a weekly candle that regains the prior trend channel or 50‐week SMA? That would be a bullish sign.
2. Monitor 19,900–20,100 & 19,000:
• These levels will dictate a lot of the week’s direction. A break above 20,000 on solid volume is your bullish trigger; a fail at 19,900 or a breakdown below 19,000 reaffirms the bearish narrative.
3. Intraday (4H) Observation:
• If price hovers between 19,600 and 19,900, remain cautious until a decisive push emerges.
• Use the 4H MACD/RSI to gauge if momentum is building up (or rolling over).
4. Risk Profile Guidance:
• Aggressive: Trade around 19,600–19,700 with tight stops, aiming for quick breaks.
• Moderate: Wait for 4H closes above or below key pivot zones (19,900–20,000 or 19,200–19,000).
• Conservative: Look for daily closes beyond 20,200 or under 19,000 before committing to positions.
5. Adapt & React:
• If you see a bullish break that fails intraday (price wicks above 19,900 but closes back below 19,600 on a 4H candle), that’s a potential short signal.
• Conversely, if price dips intraday to 19,200–19,300, but the 4H closes back above 19,600, that’s a potential bullish reversal cue.
US30 UpdateIf we see a pullback around 19650 and then price rejecting that area again, it should open doors for more downside.
Conversely, if price breaks 19650, and we see a healthy 30 minute candle closing above that level, then we look to take some buy scalps from that zone.
NASA100Considering the resistance levels and seeing the divergence, return to the previous support level
Nasdaq insights: 19-MAR-2025Good morning, traders! As a seasoned price action trader, I'll share my Nasdaq insights to help you improve your trading skills.
NASDAQ POSSIBLE SHORTSWe could be looking at NASDAQ continuing to take out lows as seen on the 4Hr TF .I would be looking at shorts targeting the lows 19113.3 .. Patience is key ... Drop a comment on what you think , Thanks
NASDAQ SHORT IDEA Update on previous analysis ... Still looking at it for the anticipated move... Drop a comment tell me what you think
Order Block @19482 | Buy SignalPrice created a change of character and inducement shortly after. It then swept the inducement going to mitigate the order block that created the change of character. It created a change of character after mitigating the order block which was confirmation for the buy signal. I couldn't enter in that order block but price created a break of structure which had an order block which was further confirmation for the buy signal so that where the re-entry will be, targeting the next swing high.
Nas100 Gap fill?!! maybe?! NQ for the day i believe we bearish and might maybe try to fill yestersday's opening gap but for a more realistic outcome we can look for the midpoint of the volume imbalance as a possible exit and maybe even the bottom red horizontal line with is the low of the gap.
1hour TF we have a shift in structure lower and price is currently on the OTE levels
NAS100 - Market BreakdownHi all,
Here we have NAS100 and we will be assessing what price has done and where it might be going
So far we can see that price has made a hard run down to sell side Liquidity, although we have seen some consolidation at this current zone we can also notice that price still has an area to fill further down with left over Imbalance
I would like to see either of the two following situations happen before getting into any trades
1. Rejection this Resistance level and take sell side Liquidity further down and reject the Demand zone from that level.
OR
2. Break out of this current consolidation range and break above resistance to further retest that level before looking for buy trades, in this situation we will have seen a Shift in the market taking out this Protected high of which would give me confluence to buy
Follow me if you would like to see more or message for any questions.
Cheers and good luck
US100 18.03.2025 ~+ Scott Bessent's "corrections are necessary"
* Market structure on 1h is also very compelling
NQ: Weekly/Daily AnalysisGood Week and Day!
Finally, buyers showed up late Friday and market opened with a gap up. Both Asian and European sessions continued the move up. We should expect NY session to continue up.
Few notes here:
1- As I mentioned it few times now, this is not "buy the dip", this is just to allow large hands to clear their positions. The chart identifies the VA area to sell.
2- The ST/MT/LT outlooks for all US Equities is Sell. Unless, major change happens to US policy (i.e., tariffs, bullying) which it has 0.0001% chance! The self-inflicted destruction is so amazing! Three months ago, US economy was almost the only solid economy worldwide!
3- April 2nd: tariffs come into effect.
3- Money is fleeing US market towards BRICS and European Markets.
So, for this week, price will continue up until 20500-20700 area.
We have key economic data to fuel the move up. But it won't change anything fundamentally. The damage is structural. So good news is good news for Equities, but bad news it will be neutral.
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Nasdaq market analysis: 24-MAR-2025Good morning! Happy New Week! Happy New Day! Here's your daily Nasdaq market analysis. Learn, grow, and trade wisely.
NDX has broken down Trendline and consolidatingNDX has broken down Trendline and consolidating in narrow zone.
NASDAQ 100: Moon Mission or Reality Check? Ah, the NASDAQ 100—our favorite rollercoaster 🎢 where tech dreams are either made ✨ or brutally crushed 😵💫. Right now, it’s hovering around 19,500, and traders are debating: "Is this the launchpad to new highs or just a dead-cat bounce in disguise?" 🐱💀
Let’s break it down 👇
🚀 The Bullish Hopefuls: "We're Going to Valhalla, Boys!"
✅ Rebound Mode ON 🎯: After a nasty selloff, the market has found some footing and is showing signs of recovery 📈. Maybe the worst is over? (Yeah, sure, we've heard that before... 🙃)
✅ Fed to the Rescue? 🏦: With the FOMC meeting on deck, traders are hoping for some dovish magic dust ✨ to send tech stocks flying again. Because why rely on solid fundamentals when you have the Fed, right? 🤡
😨 The Bearish Doom-Sayers: "Brace for Impact!"
❌ Big Tech = Too Crowded 🚶♂️🚶♂️🚶♂️🚶♂️: Asset managers are side-eyeing Big Tech, calling it "overcrowded" 🙄. Translation? Expect a nasty rug pull soon.
❌ Healthy Correction... or the Start of Something Worse? 🚑: The S&P 500 dropped 10%, the NASDAQ fell 11%, and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent is calling it a "healthy correction" 🤡. Yeah, just like how falling down the stairs is a “healthy adjustment” for your spine.
🤔 The Fence-Sitters: "We're Just Watching the Chaos 🍿"
🔮 Multiple Futures Await 🔮: Analysts are juggling four possible scenarios for the NASDAQ—ranging from "moon mission" 🚀 to "welcome to the abyss" 🕳️. Basically, flip a coin.
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NASDAQ Bullish Reversal (Potential Tariff Resolution?) NASDAQ price action went through a massive correction with a drop from the top worth approx. 14%.
However after the passing of the latest FOMC Meeting, we may finally see a direction towards the resolution of widespread tariff based uncertainty across the macro economic landscape.
This presents us with a potential Reversal opportunity if we see the formation of a credible Higher High (given a potential proper break out) on the 4 HR and shorter timeframes.
Trade Plan :
Entry @ 20045
Stop Loss @ 19070
TP 0.9 - 1 @ 20923 - 21020
