NETH25 trade ideas
AEX : Sell in May and go away ? Hi everyone, the gap of 06/03/20 was finally closed at 528 after which a large decline followed, see here the importance of the improving effect of this level on which large parties were trading. Can we now expect a further major drop?
To get a better picture, I first discuss the day chart: after the sideways movement of the month of April, there was only an outbreak upwards in the last few days and this to close the gap, this outbreak does ensure that we are above the MA50 This could now provide support this is important to keep an eye on in the first week, the RSI must also go below 50 to drop further! On Monday it runs around 505. If it breaks, the next target is 482, an old support!
Now the hour chart
Here we saw a short signal again in the last hours of yesterday, it is important that it now remains below the MA50, I have made a slightly rising trend channel from the sideways movement which now coincides with 505, this is also the level of the MA50 in the daily graph as discussed earlier. See here the importance of this level. Support can still be found here!
An overview :
There is a short signal in the hour chart to 505 initially, below 505 (MA50) there is also a short signal in the day chart which will give a larger drop initially to 482.
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Good luck traders!
regards
TT
AEX looks the same as 2002In 2002 the AEX made a big drop to 380 points. After that point the AEX made a rally up to 528 points. Back to now, this year we als made a big drop to 390 points. 29 april we reached the 528 points. Yesterday we saw a big red candle, does this mean we have seen the top? If we look back at 2002 the answer is yes ;)
AEX : 528 pulls like a magnet Hi everyone,
After a weeklong side bump, today a breakthrough to higher levels is visible again. The open gap since 6/03/20 has an attractive effect that I think should be closed for the longer term, this is what the market is now aiming for, the MA50 has managed to stop the declines for the time being, leaving a 2nd short signal . You can also see the parallel lines in the RSI with support and resistors, this shows the strength of the market and it is too big for the time being. A ride to 528 can be done, but pay attention at the top, space is limited!
Regards ,
TT
AEX Is Inside a Rising Wedge, After Struggling at the 0.500 Fib Let's look at the Dutch AEX index. The prices seem to not have recovered as much as the american stock markets, giving us more opportunity to trade with higher percentage gains. However, I am starting this one with my analysis on an upcoming short trade.
I'm not a huge fan of this inverted fibonacci retracement, but saw it getting very popular on charts recently to model the big Corona drop. If we use this charting method, we do see the price struggled quite a bit to overcome the 0.5 fib level.
After oscillating quite a bit in this rising wedge, we are reaching the point where the price will need to make a decision soon.
A rising wedge is a bearish pattern, so I expect a bearish breakout after reaching still slightly higher. possibly around the 525 level.
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Disclaimer!
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Drawing all possible resistances and Supports in local areaDrawing all possible resistances and Supports in local area
AEX: the balloon starts to tear ! Hi everyone
The time has come, a first short signal in a long time, we have had to wait a long time.
See in the graph that the MA50 (orange line) served as a support for the upward movement for a long time, has not been able to keep today. An upward trend line has also been broken, which reinforces the whole.
Initially we focus on 482 then on to 455 these are support / resistance zones, eventually my longer term target is on a retest of 390 but we are not there yet, step by step again
If there is still a small revival, the ascending earlier support line will now serve as resistance, here shorts can still be bought if one was late
resistance: MA50 / MA20
505/513/530
support zone targets: 482/455/430/390
Good luck traders!
I regularly update my ideas, so don't hesitate to follow.
I also appreciate your opinions, thanks!
Regards,
TT
AEX : (false) outbreak : look correlation RSI/MA50 !Hi everyone,
A new analysis, it is not an easy one. Last week we were in the sideways motion but this will not last. This morning there was an outbreak upwards, the disadvantage is that this happened with an open gap (price area), this can still be closed (476) this makes the outbreak difficult to predict, under 476 the outbreak is false and there can be big drop.
I want to turn to the correlation RSI / MA50: see that the tops of the RSI coincided with the resistor 482 (red arrows) on the other hand, the MA50 together with the RSI provided support (green arrows)
The outbreak can be confirmed by the breakthrough due to the falling resistance line (see blue arrow), which should now provide support! If this is possible then we have a first target at 510 and overshoot cannot be ruled out because of the previously created gap 530 that can be closed! Here's looking for a lower term top, but we're not there yet.
So for the next few hours, you should focus on the RSI!
Again, when a short position is taken into account a stop loss above 530!
short overview: - gap at 476 -> can still be closed
- MA50 / RSI should provide support
- first target 510, overshoot 530
- under 476 chance of a big drop
Regards,
TT
AEX short ideaFundamental: expectation of prolonging corona virus meassures by the dutch goverment, announcement after market.
These meassures would result in lower opening of AEX on 1/4/2020?
Technical: strong resistance at the 0.382 Fibonachi retracement
This resistance is a historical support of dec 2018 (bottom of last bull cycle)