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JSE:J200 Top 40 Change in CharacterThis week has seen the largest down bar. Volatility to the downside has been increasing since 2015 and the clear change in character (CoC) last week could indicate a lot more downside to come. We have been following what has been looking like distribution for some time and this move could be the markdown in phase D. After a possible pause at the bottom of the trading range we could be in for a larger markdown below the trading range in phase E.
JSE:J200Short
by SteynTrade
69% Chance of a Santa Claus Rally on the JSE in 2019Go to Google, Bloomberg, Business Times and you’ll see big debates between nations talking about this rally. This sparked my curiosity to see if we could also see a stock market rally on the JSE this year. Today I’m going to tell you what the Santa Claus rally is, why it exists and how you have a 69% chance to profit from the JSE this December. Let’s get to it… Why you can see a sudden stock market rally at Christmas time The Santa Claus rally, in a nutshell, is when stocks see sudden price rises and strong gains near the end of December and in early January. And when stocks rally, this drives up the actual stock market indices as well. According to the 2019 Stock Trader’s Almanac, there’s an average 1.3% market rally in stocks, during this time that has taken place 75% of the time since 1969. We are not 100% sure why the stock market ends positive during the last few days of the year, but here are some common theories. Theory #1: Investment managers cut down on their taxes This is the time when you’ll see investors and investment managers, selling their stocks to lock in tax reductions before the end of the year. Once they sell their positions, they then buy other stocks and markets that they believe will rally in the next year. The buying of these stocks, leads to a rise in stock prices which pushes the stock market indices up. Theory #2: Investors treat themselves with their bonuses Investors tend to splurge at the end of the year on stocks with their bonuses they’re paid at the end of the year. And when there’s buying, demand picks up which leads to higher stock market prices. We can speculate all we want, but nothing tells us the truth more than what the charts show. What you see, is the monthly JSE-ALSI stock market chart since 2003… Looking at the chart you can see how each December (Vertical blue line) performed from 2003 up ‘till 2018. Year Gain/Loss 2003 7.39% 2004 1.28% 2005 6.84% 2006 3.90% 2007 -4.99% 2008 0.51% 2009 2.62% 2010 6.69% 2011 -3.26% 2012 2.72% 2013 3.27% 2014 -0.53% 2015 -1.15% 2016 0.48% 2017 -1.33% 2018 4.63% So, there’ve been 11 out of 16 Decembers (69%) that have shown positive gains. And in total, the JSE has accumulated 29.07% gains in all of those Decembers. This means, you have a higher chance of profiting from buying this Christmas than selling. Trade well, Timon Rossolimos Founder, TimonAndMATI.com
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso
JSE Top 40 J200Indices | JSE Top 40 Index: The week ended 06-Dec saw the index rebound off the trend line support going back to the 22-October-2018 lows. In a similar fashion to the price action seen during July to September 2018, it’s possible that a rebound toward the channel highs come takes place before a further moderation of the price. Resistance levels are 49777, followed by 50100 while the major short term support zone is 48215. At current levels, the price also finds itself below the 40-week and 200-day moving averages.
JSE:J200
by LD_Perspectives
JSE Top 40 SpotIndices | JSE Top 40 Index: “When in doubt in, zoom out” and that’s what I did. Since markets have been trading in a fairly choppy manner, I thought we’d take a look at the weekly chart to provide a bigger picture perspective of where things stand. Upon review, it makes sense to have studied the prior price setup which took place during the week of 25 September 2018 where we saw a breakdown of the long term trend line subsequent to a large bearish candle.
JSE:J200
by LD_Perspectives
7 Nov 2019 - JSE ALSI 40 - Long - W Formation FEEL PRIDEThere are many aspects to celebrate the JSE rising... Technically we have a breakout above the W-formation, break up above the downtrend for the first time since may and end of the year buying before year-end. Fundamentally we have a couple of reasons to feel pride: 1. JSE Is tightening with the regulations with the listing requirements 2. Leila Fourie stepped in as CEO in early October which has sent the JSE flying over 8% 3. We dodged the junk status by Moodys (Baaa3) 4. US and China seem to be entering a compromise part of the relationship with cutting down on tarriffs and offering 20-40-50bn worth of farm goods. 5. We won the Rugby WOrld Cup (32:12) 6. #ImStaying grew to over 860,000 members Anyways, the charts are what makes us take the trade - everything else is just fun confirmation.
JSE:J200Long
by Timonrosso