UK stock market index in monthly time frameConsecutive ceilings in the chart and lower ceilings in the indicator, which represent the negative divergence and further correction of the index of the stock market and the UK economy.
UK100 trade ideas
FTSE Elliott Wave Analysis for Friday 29/09/2023As forecasted we saw more upside in the FTSE. We now reached areas from where we can start to reverse. We are looking for exhaustion signs to end wave A.
UK100 H4 | Rising into 38.2% Fibo resistanceUK100 is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse off this level to drop lower.
Sell entry is at 7647.16 which is an overlap resistance that aligns with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level.
Stop loss is at 7700.00 which is a level that sits above a Fibonacci confluence i.e. the 61.8% retracement and the 100.0% projection levels.
Take profit is between 7564.00 and 7551.55 which is a pullback support that aligns close to the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement level.
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FTSE Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 28/09/2023As forecasted we saw more upside in the FTSE. We now reached areas from where we can start to reverse. We are looking for exhaustion signs to end wave A.
28 September 2023 - FTSE100 SellI was stalking a sell on the FTSE100 as it came up as a pair of high interest in my preparation for the day (covered in my market prep stream earlier today).
I have seen signs of the M15 buyers getting trapped, which has triggered the sell entry.
UK100-IN BEARISH TRENDUK100 is in a bearish trend and making a series of LLs and LHs, as the price gets rejected from resistance also with doubles with bearish divergence which adds confluences to our plan. what do you guys think about this? let me know.
UK100 LongIn continuation to Analysis of UK100 on 11th September, the price has retraced 50% after breaking the down trend. It is time to take long positions and aim for 7900 above which could be reversal as shown by AB=CD pattern.
UK100UK100 was trading in strong bullish channel till the sellers took control from channel resistance and has given the massive sell rally. That sell rally break the ascending trendline.
Now the price is retesting the broken channel and broken support level with strong bearish divergence.
it seems like the sellers can attack again this bearish confluence.
If the sellers takes charge again, the next target could be 7400.
What you guys think of this idea?
FTSE Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 27/09/2023As forecasted we saw more upside in the FTSE. We now reached areas from where we can start to reverse. We are looking for exhaustion signs to end wave A.
UK100: Continuation watchToday's focus: UK100 Index
Pattern – Continuation Pattern
Support – 7629 - 7588
Resistance – 7720, 7916
Thanks for checking out today's update. Today, we have run over UK100, breaking down the overall price picture, levels, and patterns and incorporating moving average and RSI into the analysis.
The primary focus of today's look at the UK100 is the current uptrend, forming a new higher low in today's session. This continues to push the case for a new leg high from buyers. Resistance at 7720 is the first big test, and if we can see a new move up, this level needs to be cleared to break the current range.
If today's fightback from 7629 support fails, we could see a move that may try to retest the range base. We will be watching Price and mainly Buyers over the next several sessions to see if we get a breakout.
Good trading.
FTSE Elliott Wave Analysis for Tuesday 26/09/2023As forecasted we saw more upside in the FTSE. We now reached areas from where we can start to reverse. We are looking for exhaustion signs to end wave A.
FTSE Elliott Wave Analysis for Monday 25/09/2023As forecasted we saw more upside in the FTSE. We now reached areas from where we can start to reverse. We are looking for exhaustion signs to end wave A.
UK100 1D time frame analysisAfter a trendless pennant movement since the start of the year, UK 100 is finally looking to breakout from it, hopefully making some bullish movement
21 September 2023 - UK100 sell trade reattempt post BOE ratesI got stopped on my earlier UK100 sell.
But I believe BOE's rates decision has printed a larger trap to trigger the same sell idea.
Hence, I am re-entering the trade.
FTSE Elliott Wave Analysis for Thursday 21/09/2023As forecasted we saw more upside in the FTSE. We now reached areas from where we can start to reverse. It looks like the upward ABC correction is mature.
FTSE is the happiest place to be long?With the PBOC sticking to expectations and maintaining its Loan Prime Rates (LPR), commodity-related currencies experienced little volatility during the Asian session.
Instead, the majority of the action was focused on GBP after the UK released its August CPI figures. Both headline and core CPI came in lower than expected, supporting the Bank of England's (BOE) less hawkish path.
GBP fell against its major counterparts but has since recovered, particularly against the USD, JPY, CHF, and EUR.
This opens the door for the FTSE to rise. For longs, I look at the 7700 area as a breakout retest.
UK Stock Market Rises amid Inflation News According to data published this morning for August from the UK Office for National Statistics, the CPI index amounted to 6.7% in annual terms (expected 7.0%, value a month ago = 6.8%).
That is, the data shows that although inflation remains high (above other G7 countries), the trend points to a slowdown. This is the 6th CPI value in a row that has either decreased or remained the same.
However, there is still a long way to go before reaching the target values (a value of about 2% is considered normal).
Here’s how markets reacted to inflation news:
→ depreciation of the GBP/USD exchange rate to another September low. The rate approached an important low at the end of May;
→ growth of the UK FTSE stock index (the 4-hour chart of which is presented for analysis).
Bullish arguments:
→ news about declining inflation will help the bulls gain a foothold above the psychological level of 7,700
→ the price is within the ascending channel (shown in blue). A confident return of the price to its upper half will indicate the strength of demand.
Bearish arguments:
→ Level 7,700 still offers resistance. At the end of July, the bears won a landslide victory here.
→ Exceeding the July high may be just a false breakout. It is possible that after the initial positive reaction to lower inflation, market consensus will indicate that the fair price for the FTSE (UK100) index is still below 7,700. This will be similar to how the stock index of 50 European shares reacted to the ECB decision last week (quick exhaustion of bullish momentum followed by bearish momentum).
Be prepared for a surge in volatility today at 21:00 GMT+3 amid the publication of news from the Federal Reserve.
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FTSE Elliott Wave Analysis for Wednesday 20/09/2023As forecasted we saw more upside in the FTSE. We now reached areas from where we can start to reverse. We are looking for exhaustion signs to end wave ((y)) and wave W.
FTSE Elliott Wave Analysis for Tuesday 19/09/2023As forecasted we saw more upside in the FTSE. We now reached areas from where we can start to reverse. We are looking for exhaustion signs to end wave ((y)) and wave W.
FTSE 100 Technical OutlookFTSE 100 Technical Outlook
In prior technical outlooks, we highlighted the importance of staying alert in sleepy markets, and last Thursday’s developments on the FTSE 100 serve as a prime illustration of this principle.
Having spent the first half of the week coiled and consolidating, the FTSE burst into life on Thursday – breaking and closing above multiple levels of resistance and posting its biggest day of gains since March.
Thursday’s rally was fuelled by the European Central Bank (ECB) confirming the end of its rate hike cycle. This fed into a surge in commodity prices which propelled the FTSE 100 higher as the index is heavily weighted towards energy and mining stocks.
The rally brought the FTSE back to the levels it had reached during the summer swing highs—an area we had previously pointed out as a zone of resistance (refer to the chart below). On Friday, market participants reacted to this resistance by closing out positions in anticipation of the weekend.
It's important to highlight that even though the FTSE has started the new week with a somewhat subdued performance, the prevailing short-term momentum remains bullish, thanks to the gains seen on Thursday.
FTSE 100 Daily Candle Chart:
Support
S1 = 7,500
S2 = 7,370
S3 = 7,227
Resistance
R1 = 7,724
R2 = 7,941
R3 = 8,045
UK Sector Snapshot
Risk management:
Support and resistance levels should be used as a guide and are not guaranteed to hold.
We have a busy week ahead on the economic calendar, key events include; Eurozone inflation data on Tuesday morning, UK inflation on Wednesday morning, the Federal Open Market Committee interest rate announcement on Wednesday, and the Bank of England rate decision on Thursday.
Disclaimer: This is for information and learning purposes only. The information provided does not constitute investment advice nor take into account the individual financial circumstances or objectives of any investor. Any information that may be provided relating to past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results or performance.
