The DXY shows a downward tendency.In the long run, the implementation of tariffs will prompt trading partners to take countermeasures 😡, resulting in a contraction of the global trade scale 😔. American enterprises will face higher import costs for raw materials, and their export markets will be restricted, thus curbing the economic growth of the United States 😩. This will put depreciation pressure on the US dollar, causing the DXY to decline 📉.
U.S. Tariff Policies
Since April 9th, the United States has levied tariffs ranging from 10% to 25% on goods from China, the European Union, Canada, and other regions. These tariffs cover crucial sectors like automobiles, steel, and semiconductors 😒.
Countermeasures of Various Countries
China: On April 4th, China declared that it would impose a 34% tariff on U.S. goods starting from April 10th. Then, on April 9th, the tariff rate was further hiked to 84%, applying to all U.S. goods 😠.
The European Union: Announced that it would impose a 25% tariff on U.S. motorcycles, diamonds, and other goods as of May 16th 😤.
Canada: On April 9th, imposed a 25% retaliatory tariff on U.S. automobiles, while exempting auto parts 😏.
💰💰💰 DXY 💰💰💰
🎯 Sell@ 100 - 101
🎯 TP 98 - 97
Traders, if you're fond of this perspective or have your own insights regarding it, feel free to share in the comments. I'm really looking forward to reading your thoughts! 🤗
👇The accuracy rate of our daily signals has remained above 98% within a month! 📈 We sincerely welcome you to join our channel and share in the success with us! 👉
USDX trade ideas
Bullish IntradayPrice made a higher high at 99.836, breaking the previous lower high. This suggests a potential shift in structure to bullish. Buy Stops Above Highs: The high at 99.836 likely took out buy stops from traders expecting a breakout above 100.000. ICT emphasizes that smart money often hunts liquidity above equal highs or below equal lows. Bearish Order Block: The green box around 99.750–99.800 (before the drop to 99.500) acts as a bearish order block. This is a zone where institutional selling occurred, leading to the sharp decline. Price briefly retested this zone before rejecting it, confirming its significance. Last scenario would be, Pullback and Reversal: A likely ICT setup would be a pullback to the 99.650 pivot or the 99.500 bullish order block, followed by a move higher to target liquidity above 100.000.
DXY Forms a Contracting Triangle: Awaiting BreakoutDXY Forms a Contracting Triangle: Awaiting Breakout
On the 60-minute chart, DXY has developed a contracting triangle, which is typically a trend continuation pattern, suggesting a potential downward move.
However, since this consolidation is taking time and DXY’s price action remains complex, movement in either direction is possible.
The breakout will ultimately determine the next price direction, but based on current conditions, an upward move seems more likely in the near future.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
How to Trade the Tariff Turmoil: Markets Now Move on HeadlinesMarkets in 2025 have become increasingly unpredictable, largely driven by one factor: tariffs. President Donald Trump’s aggressive trade policy has shaken investor confidence and turned global markets into a rollercoaster. The key to navigating this new environment? Understand that markets are no longer just reacting to economic data—they’re reacting to headlines.
The biggest shock came on April 2, when Trump announced a 145% tariff on all Chinese imports and “reciprocal” tariffs on dozens of other countries. The reaction was immediate: the S&P 500 dropped nearly 15% at its lowest point that week, and investors rushed to sell risk assets. Days later, markets sharply reversed after Trump temporarily suspended some tariffs. That sparked a rally—tech stocks soared, Apple rose 5%, and the Nasdaq gained over 2%.
But the relief was short-lived. Conflicting messages and partial rollbacks continued to send markets up and down. Earlier, on March 4, tariffs were placed on Canada and Mexico, while China’s rates were doubled. These moves led to more selling in stocks and a spike in demand for bonds. By mid-April, exemptions for electronics boosted tech names again, but overall market sentiment remained fragile.
How to Trade This New Market
The main lesson for traders and investors is clear:
We’re now in a headline-driven market. Traditional strategies that rely solely on fundamentals or economic cycles are being overshadowed by sudden political developments. Here’s how to adapt:
Stay Nimble and News-Aware
Be ready for fast moves. Market direction can flip in minutes based on a single press conference or tweet. Have alerts set for major geopolitical and tariff-related headlines. Reduce position sizes during uncertainty and avoid holding large trades through major announcements.
Rethink Your Safe Havens
The U.S. dollar is no longer acting like the safe haven it used to be. With rising fiscal concerns and volatile trade policy, investors are shifting toward alternatives. Gold and the Swiss franc (CHF) have become more reliable options during risk-off moments. If uncertainty spikes, these assets may offer better protection than the dollar.
Focus on Sectors Sensitive to Policy
Tech stocks have been among the most affected. Tariff exemptions caused sharp rallies, while new restrictions triggered big drops. If you trade sectors like tech, consumer goods, or industrials, stay especially alert for trade-related headlines.
Bottom line: In 2025, geopolitics is moving markets more than ever. The old playbook needs updating. By staying flexible, tracking headlines, and turning to traditional safe havens like gold and CHF, traders can better navigate the noise—and find opportunity in the chaos.
DXY FORECAST Q1 FY25 : zim dollar dollarBack again with a TVC:DXY doomsday post my judgement at the moment is based of the following reasonings.
📉 Tariffs & Global Trade Impact
Tariffs weaken trade activity: If the U.S. imposes tariffs, it might reduce export competitiveness and disrupt global supply chains. That can lead to lower foreign demand for U.S. dollars, putting downward pressure on the DXY.
Market uncertainty: Investors often move away from riskier assets during trade wars, but if confidence in the U.S. economy declines, they might shift into other safe havens (like gold or the Swiss franc) instead of dollars.
💰 Money Supply Contraction
Dollar scarcity effect: The contraction in M2 money supply could strengthen the dollar temporarily due to reduced liquidity. However, if the Fed eases monetary policy to counter recession fears, it might reverse the effect, weakening the dollar.
📊 Inflation & Real Interest Rates
Sticky inflation: If inflation remains above target (around 2.9%), and tariffs drive consumer prices higher, the Fed may face pressure to hold or hike interest rates — which could eventually support the dollar.
Recession signals: On the flip side, if the economy contracts, rate cuts could come into play, flooding markets with liquidity and pushing the dollar down.
in my opinion
the shrinking money supply points to future deflationary pressures, which historically support the dollar however disruptive trade policies could destabilize growth, undercutting the dollar’s strength.
If tariffs intensify and growth stalls, the dollar may stay weak or decline further despite the contracting money supply. But if the Fed stays firm on inflation control and global instability rises, the dollar could rebound as a safe haven... though this would depend on whether markets believe the U.S. can avoid a full-blown recession.
Like Comment Follow Tip Gift its appreciated for more serious work like this.
DXY aka usd 15 Apr 2025Price is ranging within a triangle, a break below will confirm the wave count.
Following the move down from a triangle, it suggest the move down is completed and a reversal at least for the short term will proceed next.
Waiting for the break and move lower and a rejection bounce to suggest a bottom is in.
Will long usdjpy, short eurusd gbpusd etc when the above comes true
Good luck.
DXY Starts the Bearish Trend!DXY Starts the Bearish Trend!
Yesterday, the DXY made a clear breakout on the daily chart from a strong structure zone located near 106.20. Since that moment, the DXY hasn't paused, leading to a weakening USD. Even if the DXY corrects, it is expected to be short-term. The DXY may test the 105.7 - 106.20 range as a maximum before a more significant bearish wave occurs.
The U.S. dollar dropped to a near three-month low against major peers on Wednesday, following the latest round of U.S. tariffs and countermeasures from Canada and China, which stoked fears of an escalating trade war.
Fears about weaker U.S. and global economic activity are driving the sell-off.
You may find more details in the chart!
Thank you and Good Luck!
❤️PS: Please support with a like or comment if you find this analysis useful for your trading day❤️
DXY Squeeze Incoming? Watch 99.00 ReactionFundamental Analysis:
The TVC:DXY has weakened as recent data shows GDP growth slowing to 2.4%, inflation cooling to 2.4%, and unemployment rising to 4.2%, increasing expectations of potential Fed rate cuts despite rates holding at 4.5%. Investor confidence has also dropped, with consumer sentiment at 50.8, and the trade deficit still wide at $123B, signaling softer economic momentum.
📉 Projection: Continued soft data could keep the dollar under pressure unless the Fed reinforces a hawkish stance.
⚠️ Risk Level: A strong upside surprise in inflation or employment data could reverse sentiment and push DXY higher abruptly.
Technical Analysis:
DXY is currently hovering around 99.65, just above a key support zone near 99.00 (PWL), where a potential liquidity grab may occur. The RSI is near 30, signaling oversold conditions, which often precede a short-term bounce.
📈 Projection: If price holds above 99.00, a rebound toward the 100.91 gap and possibly 103.19 (PWH) is likely.
⚠️ Risk Level: A clean break below 99.00 would invalidate the bullish setup and open the way to 97.50–98.00.
Last Week’s FX Recap: April 7–11 (Zone Reactions & Trade Notes)📈 Weekly Forex Recap – Market Reactions & Lessons (Apr 7–11)
Last week there were about +320 pips of reaction potential (excluding Gold, which I was completely off on). There were multiple opportunities to capture solid intraday or swing setups.
3 out of 6 weekly targets were hit.
5 out of 6 trend biases were either accurate or neutral —meaning no major misreads, aside from one or two volatile zones. The only pair that really got me was Gold.
Let’s run it back real quick:
✅ AUDJPY
Bearish bias accurate.
30 pip reaction off zone with just 1 pip drawdown.
Weekly target hit.
✅ NZDJPY
Bearish bias accurate.
Weekly target hit, though price never reached the watch zone.
No setup triggered, but direction was respected.
⚠️ EURUSD
Range-bound bias played out majority of the week.
Gave about 90–100 pip drop from the hot zone mentioned.
Weekly target came close but didn’t hit.
⚠️ GOLD
Watch zone completely failed.
Short-term bounce gave 480 pip reaction—but that volatility was tough to catch cleanly.
Directional bias wasn’t helpful here. Gold was chaos.
✅ EURGBP
Cleanest setup of the week.
Bias was bullish, price tapped the buy zone and ran 100 pips.
Weekly target hit. Textbook move.
⚠️ GBPUSD
Consolidation-heavy.
Watch zone gave 100 pip reaction, but weekly target didn’t hit.
Bias was unclear—no real conviction either way.
📉 Total Zone Reaction Potential: 320 pips
🎯 Weekly Targets Hit: 3/6
📊 Trend Accuracy: 50% (3 clear hits, 2 neutral, 1 miss)
But that’s done now.
Whether you hit it last week or fumbled the ball, let it go.
We trade forward. Eyes up. Mind clear.
Time to dive into the new week.
Let’s get it. 👊
DXY: Target Is Up! Long!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The price is near a wide key level
and the pair is approaching a significant decision level of 99.315 Therefore, a strong bullish reaction here could determine the next move up.We will watch for a confirmation candle, and then target the next key level of 99.687.Recommend Stop-loss is beyond the current level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
$DXY broke structure to the downside.Now waiting for price to retrace into the lower cause/effect zone—ideally the origin of the last impulsive move down.
If that fails, I’ll be watching for a deeper retracement into the discounted schematic, where higher timeframe liquidity sits.
Not chasing—waiting for price to come to me.
top is in for the dxygm,
this idea has been in the works for years, ever since we topped out 3 years ago. there has been quite a bit of variations of this idea, but this one right here has been my primary idea for a very long time.
initially i imagined the dxy coming up to 111-113 before topping out, and i reckon it still can, but the worst is behind us, relatively speaking.
---
if my count here is correct, the dxy will begin extending down into wave c into the last days of 2025 where a major low will be put in place .
this will create a hyper-parabolic bull phase for risk assets, in conjunction with declining rates.
---
if you've been waiting for a signal to buy alts
this is your signal.
🌙
---
ps. view my private idea from last year via:
🌙
DeGRAM | DXY has broken the downward structureThe DXY is under a descending channel above the trend lines.
The price has broken the upper trend line.
The chart maintains a harmonic pattern and has already broken the descending structure.
We expect a rise after consolidation above the resistance level.
-------------------
Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!
How far could the USD fall?.. WATCH THE DOLLAR INDEXThe dollar is declining as US uncertainty continues and cash moves out of the US. I personally think the dollar will bounce, but how far could it fall in the meantime...
Price is testing the previous monthly horizontal resistance as support and the monthly 100 SMA. The dollar may find a bottom here. From 98 to 100 on TVC:DXY
Price may reach the monthly bullish channel support. There will likely be technical buyers in this area. From 95 to 96 on TICKMILL:DXY
Good luck!
U.S political events have a significant impact on the USDTrump Election (2016): subsequent DXY downtrend during the first year of TRUMP presidency. The price seems to have retraced from a peak and continued declining for about a year.
Biden Election (2020): After the 2020 election of Joe Biden, there was a notable bottoming pattern, followed by a strong upward movement in the DXY, implying a recovery or strengthening of the USD.
the DXY moved within a range during Trump's presidency, between 88.275 and 104.023 .
Current Analysis (2024): The DXY is approaching a sell zone, potentially aiming for a reintegration into the Trump range.
U.S. political events, such as presidential elections, have a significant impact on the USD's strength. The transitions in administrations are marked by notable shifts in the DXY.
A Zoom of the Weekly DXY into a Daily viewI kept the colored rectangels from my weekly analysis, to keep the focus and knowledge where we are on the chart.
DXY is doing a long A-B-C before it's is going into the last impulse og the C of Y of x of the larger degree.
It's quite a lot of corrections to manage, but if you swipe from the daily to the weekly timeframe, it makes good sense. For me at least :D.
The purple B wave took some time to figure out, but this was what made most sense to me. I was trying to look at it as a triangle, but that wouldn't have a good shape, so I ended out with this white ((w))-((x))-((y)) correction.
DXY is right now performing, what I see as, a extended 5th wave in the white ((iii) wave, before it goes into the white ((iv)) correction.
The white ((iv) wave correction could be become a long shallow drawn out correction for two reasons.
We had a steep and swift white (ii) followed by an extended white ((iii) wave. This usually means we are going to spend some time correcting that white (iii) wave and the rule of alternation tells us, if we have a quick 2nd wave, we are usually going to see a slow fourth wave.
I don't believe we have completed the white (iii) yet, so we have a long time to go still until that white (iv) wave is done.
When the white (iv) wave is done, the white (v) wave is probaly going to take us down to that green box.
So relax for the next 6 months and grab yourself a cup of coffee.
DeGRAM | DXY dropped below 100 pointsDXY is in a descending channel between trend lines.
On the downside, the price has formed a gap and dropped below 100 pips and has already reached the lower trend line.
The chart maintains a descending structure but has already formed a harmonic pattern and a descending wedge.
On the major timeframes, the index relative strength is in the oversold zone and on the 30m Timeframe it is forming a bullish convergence.
We expect a reversal after a support retest.
-------------------
Share your opinion in the comments and support the idea with like. Thanks for your support!