dollar indexit can increase another 40% or a bit higher
then there will be another flat formation to the downside
this may complete the WXY correction pattern
USDX trade ideas
Pre NFP Trade Analysis1st November
DXY: Stronger NFP, DXY bounce off 103.80 to trade up to 104.60. If 103.80 broken, could trade down to 103.45
NZDUSD: Sell 0.5925 SL 20 TP 60 (DXY Strength)
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6545 SL 25 TP 60 (DXY Strength)
GBPUSD: Sell 1.28 SL 40 TP 120 (DXY Strength)
EURUSD: Buy 1.0905 SL 25 TP 100 Hesitation at 1.0950 (DXY Weakness)
USDJPY: Sell 151.40 SL 40 TP 200 Hesitation at 150.55 (DXY Weakness)
USDCHF: Buy 0.8710 SL 20 TP 40 (DXY Strength)
USDCAD: Sell 1.3915 SL 15 TP 30 (DXY Weakness)
Gold: Needs to stay below 2760, break 2740 could trade down to 2708
DOLLAR INDEX (DXY): Bearish Decline from Key Resistance LevelI'm impressed with how the 📉 Dollar Index reacted to a key horizontal resistance level on the 4-hour chart.
Following this test, the index moved into a consolidation phase, forming a horizontal range. The breakdown below this range's support level has provided a clear bearish signal.
Now, we're observing a favorable retest of the broken structure, suggesting a likely continuation of the downward move. The target is set at 103.55.
DOLLAR INDEX(DXY): Bearish Move From Key LevelI am impressed by the way the 📉Dollar Index responded to a significant horizontal resistance level on the 4-hour chart.
After the test, the pair entered a period of consolidation and established a horizontal range.
The breakout below the support of this range indicated a strong bearish signal.
Currently, we are witnessing a favorable retest of the broken structure and can expect a continued decrease in price. The target is set at 103.55.
DXY: Local Correction Ahead! Sell!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the downside. So we are locally bearish biased and the target for the short trade is 103.869
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
US Dollar Trends:Navigating the Supply Area and Market SentimentAs the trading week began on Monday, the US Dollar (DXY) found itself testing a significant supply area, leading to a period of consolidation within a tight range. This move comes on the heels of disappointing Durable Goods orders data, which has sparked bearish sentiment among traders, prompting a downward shift in the Greenback's value.
The Impact of Economic Data
The recent Durable Goods orders report fell short of expectations, raising concerns about the resilience of the US economy. Such data often serves as a barometer for economic health, influencing traders' decisions and market dynamics. With this disappointing figure, traders have been quick to react, driving the dollar lower as they reassess their positions.
Analyzing Market Sentiment
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a telling shift in market sentiment. Retail traders appear to be holding long positions on the dollar, while institutional investors—often referred to as "smart money"—are beginning to accumulate bearish positions. This divergence in sentiment raises an essential question: is there an impending reversal in the dollar's trend?
Timing the Market
Timing becomes crucial in a market characterized by conflicting signals. While the COT report indicates a potential shift, it’s essential to identify the right entry points. Many analysts believe the DXY could experience another bullish impulse before any significant decline materializes. This potential upward movement may serve to "trap" sellers who have positioned themselves in anticipation of a downturn.
Seasonal Patterns and Technical Analysis
Adding to the complexity of this scenario is the emergence of a seasonal bearish pattern indicated by forecasters. Seasonal trends often play a critical role in currency movements, and traders must remain vigilant to these patterns when planning their strategies.
In conjunction with this seasonal insight, technical analysis reveals a rectangle pattern on the chart, which suggests a defined range of support and resistance levels. Traders are advised to look for entry opportunities within this range, where the likelihood of a price breakout is heightened.
Conclusion
In conclusion, as the US Dollar navigates this crucial supply area amidst mixed signals from market participants, traders must approach their strategies with caution. Monitoring economic indicators, understanding market sentiment shifts, and analyzing technical patterns will be pivotal in making informed trading decisions. The current environment presents both challenges and opportunities, and identifying the right entry point could be the key to capitalizing on potential market movements.
As we move forward, it will be interesting to see how these dynamics play out. What are your thoughts on the current market conditions, and where do you see the DXY heading next?
31.10.24 Morning ForecastPairs on Watch -
FX:EURUSD
FX:NZDUSD
A short overview of the instruments I am looking at for today, multi-timeframe analysis down to what I will be looking at for an entry. Enjoy!
USDX-SELL strategy 3-DAILY CHARTThe index seems overdone and showing potential for a decline towards 101.00 area in the short- to medium-term. Elections are the key of courser.
Strategy SELL @ 104.10 - 104.50 and take profit @ 101.67 for now. SL based on your own risk appetite.
Potential bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot which has been identified as a pullback support and could bounce to the 1st resistance which acts as a pullback resistance.
Pivot: 103.82
1st Support: 103.44
1st Resistance: 104.57
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DXY TRI MONTHLY CHART -- A LONG JOURNEY OF WEAKNESS.The chart should speak for itself.
DXY long term view (tri-monthly data) is conveying shifting trend on the dollar index -- to the downside.
Expect more long term correction, as this time frame don't change mind too often.
Spotted at 102.25
TAYOR.
safeguard capital always.
Bearish DXY Continuation Trade IdeaDXY is showing signs of continued bearish momentum, likely to extend further as selling pressure builds.
Following recent economic data, sentiment remains weak for the dollar, pushing it toward key support levels.
DXY Descending Triangle PatternDXY is forming a descending triangle today signifying further downward momentum is likely. Take note of the lower highs and continued rejection at this same level of support. This shows a lower amount of buyers at each rejection. It is likely due to this, support will break unless new buyers come in to place.
Dollar index on the floor of the trading rangeAccording to the weekly chart of the dollar index and since tomorrow and next week we have important data such as unemployment claims, and also these data will probably strengthen the strength of the dollar, it is expected that the dollar index will rise to the middle of the trading range in the first step. .
DXY idea bearishUS Dollar (USD) rose, alongside the rise in UST yields. Dollar Index (DXY) was last at 104.26 levels. US data, including durable goods orders, Uni of Michigan sentiment surprised to the upside, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note.
Daily momentum remains bullish
“RSI eased lower from overbought conditions. While the recent run up continues to look stretched technically, the move higher may still extend in the interim. That said, we do also caution that the subsequent snapback may also be sharp, on any triggers or data surprises. Resistance at 104.60 (61.8% fibo), 105.20 levels. Support at 103.80 levels (200 DMA, 50% fibo), 102.90/103.20 levels (21, 100 DMAs, 38.2% fibo retracement of 2023 high to 2024 low) and 101.90 (50 DMA).”
DXY: Market Is Looking Up! Buy!
Welcome to our daily DXY prediction!
We made our analysis today using SMC and ICT trading theories, which, combined with our trading experience all point to the upside. So we are locally bullish biased and the target for the long trade is 104.321
Wish you good luck in trading to you all!
Levels discussed on Livestream 30th October30th October
DXY: Look to break 104.20 and 61.8%, to trade down to 104 and 103.80
NZDUSD: Buy 0.5990 SL 20 TP 60 (Counter Trend)
AUDUSD: Sell 0.6580 SL 20 TP 50 (Bearish Channel)
GBPUSD: Sell 1.2960 SL 25 TP 50 (Break trendline0
EURUSD: Buy 1.0845 SL 20 TP 55 (Hesitation at 1.0870)
USDJPY: Ranging between 152.70 and 153.86 (looking for breakout potential)
USDCHF: Sell 0.8690 SL 15 TP 35
USDCAD: Sell 1.3875 SL 30 TP 60
Gold: Could retrace to 2770, look for rejection and buying opportunities
INDEX_DXY_4H🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
hello
Analysis of short and medium term dollar index
The analysis style is based on Elliott waves.
The indicator is in an ascending wave, which is currently the big 3rd wave, which is again a downward correction wave as wave 4 and again the continuation of the ascending wave towards wave 5.
3 wave resistance 105.000
Support wave 4 number 103.300
5 wave resistance 106.600
DXY Is Going Down! Sell!
Here is our detailed technical review for DXY.
Time Frame: 1D
Current Trend: Bearish
Sentiment: Overbought (based on 7-period RSI)
Forecast: Bearish
The price is testing a key resistance 104.138.
Taking into consideration the current market trend & overbought RSI, chances will be high to see a bearish movement to the downside at least to 103.076 level.
P.S
Please, note that an oversold/overbought condition can last for a long time, and therefore being oversold/overbought doesn't mean a price rally will come soon, or at all.
Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
DXY Bearish Trade IdeaExpecting DXY to open with a gap down, looking for an initial fill back up before a potential continuation lower. This setup aims to capture the downside momentum post-fill, as bearish sentiment remains in play. Stops are placed above recent highs to manage risk, with targets aligned to key support levels.
Will the job data impair the US dollar gain?Macro theme:
- The dollar remained steady despite short-term volatility, reflecting mixed economic data. US Sep Retail Inventories and Oct Consumer Confidence exceeded forecasts, while Sep Job Openings fell short.
- Treasury yields reached multi-month highs early but declined following a strong seven-year auction.
- With the US job report—the last before the FOMC meeting—approaching, storms and strikes could complicate interpreting the data, introducing further uncertainty around the dollar’s direction.
Technical theme:
- DXY is consolidating in a small range at the top and looks stretched. This is vulnerable to a potential mean reversion. The price is trading away from both EMAs.
- If DXY extends its gain above the previous swing high at 104.60, the index may rise to 106.00 resistance.
- On the contrary, if DXY closes below 104.00 support, the index may decline to retest 103.45 support.
Analysis by: Dat Tong, Senior Financial Markets Strategist at Exness
Bear control...After three attempt to goes to touch the upper line of big channel, DXY made three bearish daily candlestick and now can correct to 103.
On my view, all pairs can strong against Us Dollar. JPY is one of the best choice to choose.
Trade safe.
Good luck.
Bullish DXY Trade IdeaDXY is showing signs of bullish momentum on the 1-hour chart, looking to make a move toward the recent swing high. Positive U.S. economic data and ongoing dollar strength could continue driving price up. Stops are set below recent support to manage risk, with an eye on resistance at the 1-hour swing high as a target.
