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DXY Phantom Strength.While I'm making this analysis Public, its purpose is really just a 'fun' project for myself to take a look back over time to see how (if) accurate it turns out to be. what does the DXY yrTF 'tell' me? 1) the CCi has been making strong bullish moves (+100) away from the average price... while price has been printing LH's. 2) 2007 has been the only year (since 1980) with a CCi -100 Bear Push (& only just) & price printed a LL! In other words, attempts of strength by the DXY results in an actual show of Weakness (LH's)? While this has been sustained over decades, in my mind... DXY 'strength' DOES NOT RING TRUE. 3) While 2022 broke above the last LH of 16/17 (Off the HL of 2020...creating an up trend?)... yearly price has not closed above the 16/17 LH. 4) AND Price is still inside the 01/08 Bear Push Range. REMEMBERING This is a Yearly Time Frame and therefore a VERY long term analysis, it seems to me the DXY is ultimately going to Dump. 5) Short Term However, I think a move to the yrWkZ of 2002 is still possible, if not likely. $115.00 ish.
TVC:DXYShort
by EverGlowTrading
Daily Market Outlook: BTC, DXY & Gold Analysis (#8)The market has been highly reactive following yesterday’s GDP and Unemployment Claims report. The DXY strengthened sharply, reaching a key resistance at 107.474. Previously, this level acted as a strong support and has now turned into a major resistance zone. DXY Analysis We need to consider multiple scenarios for the dollar index: Most Likely Scenario: If DXY gets rejected from 107.474, we can look for short positions below 107.063, anticipating a continuation of the secondary downtrend in the daily timeframe. Alternative Scenario: If DXY breaks above 107.474, it could continue strengthening toward 107.767, confirming that the correction is over and resuming the major uptrend. Gold (XAU/USD) Analysis Gold dropped below 2878.87, entering a price correction phase. Key support levels to watch: 2841.25 (Fib 50%) 2811 2790 (Strong demand zone) Short Position Plan (1H Timeframe) If gold finds support at 2855 (35% Fib), and later breaks it, a short entry could be considered. If the drop continues, the next major short opportunity is at 2841.89 in the 4H timeframe. Long Position Plan A confirmed breakout above 2879.26 will indicate strength, making it a valid long entry point. Bitcoin (BTC/USD) Analysis BTC has been experiencing significant downside pressure, aligning with the February 26 analysis where I highlighted the potential for a price correction within its major uptrend. As mentioned earlier, losing 80-82K support would shift the market bias to bearish, favoring short positions. If you shorted BTC from 85K, this could be a great area to secure profits. Currently, BTC lacks a clear structure, so I’m waiting for more confirmation before taking new positions. What’s Next for BTC? If BTC closes below 80K, we will need to reassess the market structure and update our strategy accordingly. If BTC holds above this level, there is still a chance for a recovery and potential upside continuation. However, if 80K is lost, the recovery process could take much longer than expected. Final Thoughts Stay patient and wait for clear market structures before entering trades. If you’re already in positions, manage them carefully based on these levels. I’m Skeptic , and I’m grateful to be on this journey with you all. Trading is tough, but growing together makes it worthwhile. Stay profitable and see you tomorrow! 🚀💡
TVC:DXY
by SkepticWise
5
DOLLARThe Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is a key inflation indicator closely watched by the Federal Reserve. Here's how the forecasted monthly change of 0.3% (previous 0.2%) might affect the USD and broader financial markets: Impact on USD Higher Core PCE: If the actual figure exceeds the forecast, it could signal stronger inflationary pressures. This might lead to a stronger USD as it could prompt the Fed to consider interest rate hikes to curb inflation. Lower Core PCE: Conversely, if the actual figure is below expectations, it might suggest easing inflationary pressures. This could lead to a weaker USD as it might reduce the likelihood of rate hikes. Broader Market Impact Monetary Policy Expectations: A higher-than-expected Core PCE could lead to increased expectations of tighter monetary policy, potentially boosting the USD and affecting other currencies. Market Sentiment: The release can influence market sentiment, with higher inflation readings potentially leading to increased volatility and risk aversion. Trade Directional Bias Bullish for USD: If Core PCE exceeds forecasts, it might strengthen the USD against other currencies due to potential interest rate hikes. Bearish for USD: If Core PCE is below expectations, it could weaken the USD as it might reduce the likelihood of rate hikes. The Federal Reserve closely interprets the Core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index as a key measure of inflation. Here's how the Fed uses this data: 1. Inflation Targeting Core PCE as Preferred Measure: The Fed prefers the Core PCE Price Index over other inflation measures like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) because it excludes volatile food and energy prices, providing a clearer view of underlying inflation trends. Target: The Fed aims for a 2% annual inflation rate, using the Core PCE as a benchmark. If the Core PCE exceeds this target, it might prompt the Fed to consider tightening monetary policy to curb inflation 2. Monetary Policy Decisions Interest Rate Adjustments: A higher-than-expected Core PCE figure could lead to increased expectations of interest rate hikes. This is because higher inflation suggests the economy might be growing too quickly, necessitating higher rates to slow it down and prevent overheating. Economic Growth Assessment: The Core PCE helps the Fed assess the overall health of the economy. Stronger inflation can indicate robust economic activity, but if it exceeds the target, it might signal the need for policy adjustments to maintain economic stability 3. Market Expectations and Sentiment Forward Guidance: The Fed uses Core PCE data to guide market expectations about future monetary policy. If the data suggests inflation is rising, the Fed might communicate a more hawkish stance, influencing market sentiment and potentially strengthening the USD. Interpretation of Forecasted 0.3% Monthly Increase Implications: A forecasted monthly increase of 0.3% in the Core PCE Price Index, up from 0.2%, could indicate a slight acceleration in inflation. If this increase is confirmed, it might lead to increased expectations of interest rate hikes, potentially supporting the USD In summary, the Fed interprets the Core PCE Price Index as a critical indicator of underlying inflation trends, using it to inform monetary policy decisions and guide market expectations about future interest rates and economic conditions.
TVC:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
2
DXY Correction Plays Out – Is a Reversal Next? Since the end of January, I have been anticipating a correction in the TVC:DXY , with a target around the 106 support level. This correction has unfolded as expected, with the Dollar Index touching 106 on Monday, followed by another test and reversal yesterday. A key observation is that since the early February spike, the DXY has been trading within a falling wedge—a pattern that often signals a potential reversal. What’s Next? ✅ Bullish confirmation would come with a daily close above the 106.60–106.70 zone. If this happens, we could see a move up to 108.50, a key resistance level. ✅ Interim resistance sits at 107.30, which could also act as a potential target for bulls. Trading Implications: If the Dollar Index confirms an upside breakout, it could present selling opportunities in FX:EURUSD , FX:GBPUSD , FX:AUDUSD , and TRADENATION:NZDUSD .
TVC:DXYLong
by Mihai_Iacob
1
USDX, DXYUSDX price is approaching the support zone of 106.45-105.36. If the price fails to break through the main support zone of 105.36, it is expected that there is a chance that the price will rebound. On the contrary, if the price can break through the level of 105.36, it will have a negative impact on the dollar. 🔥Trading futures, forex, CFDs and stocks carries a risk of loss. Please consider carefully whether such trading is suitable for you. >>GooD Luck 😊 ❤️ Like and subscribe to never miss a new idea!
EIGHTCAP:USDXLong
by Serana2324
8
Potential bullish rise?US Dollar Index (DXY) has reacted off the pivot which has been identified as an overlap resistance and could rise to the 1st resistance that lines up with the 50% Fibonacci retracement. Pivot: 107.09 1st Support: 106.64 1st Resistance: 108.04 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYLong
by ICmarkets
2
DXY Holds Above 106, Currency Markets at Risk?The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains firm above the 106-mark, applying pressure on the latest currency market rebound amid escalating tariff and trade war concerns. With the first wave of tariffs on Canada and Mexico set to take effect in early March, Trump's renewed tariff threats against the EU are further strengthening the Dollar's stance. This has kept the EURUSD capped below 1.0530 and GBPUSD struggling at 1.27. Friday’s key inflation reports—including the German Prelim CPI and US Core PCE—are expected to introduce additional volatility risks. 🔻 Downside Scenario: A break below 106, aligning with June 2024 highs, could expose the next support at 1.0520, coinciding with the upper boundary of the declining channel connecting lower highs from October 2023 to June 2024. Further declines could see DXY testing 104 and 102.20, aligning with the 50% and 61.8% Fibonacci retracement levels. 🔺 Upside Scenario: A solid close above 107.30 could reignite bullish momentum, pushing DXY towards the 2025 high of 110, potentially derailing the currency market’s 2025 rebound. - Razan Hilal, CMT
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
1
Is the Dollar's Rally Over? Key Levels to WatchIs the dollar trend doomed? Many say the trend is over, but the charts tell a different story. The Dollar Index remains at key support levels, with technicals pointing to a potential upside. A breakout retest around 105 could determine the next move. Will inflation, wage growth, and the Fed's stance push the dollar higher? Or will weak economic data trigger a breakdown? Watch now and decide—long or short? This content is not directed to residents of the EU or UK. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices or other information contained on this website is provided as general market commentary and does not constitute investment advice. ThinkMarkets will not accept liability for any loss or damage including, without limitation, to any loss of profit which may arise directly or indirectly from use of or reliance on such information
THINKMARKETS:USDINDEXLong
by ThinkMarkets
DXY Is Going Up! Long! Please, check our technical outlook for DXY. Time Frame: 1D Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 106.184. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 107.245. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1
#DXY 4HDXY (4H Timeframe) Analysis Market Structure: The price is forming a falling wedge pattern, which is generally considered a bullish reversal pattern. This suggests that the downtrend is losing momentum, and a potential upward move could follow if the price breaks above the wedge resistance. Forecast: A buy opportunity may arise if the price confirms a breakout from the falling wedge pattern, signaling increased bullish pressure. Key Levels to Watch: - Entry Zone: A buy position can be considered after a confirmed breakout above the wedge resistance. - Risk Management: - Stop Loss: Placed below the recent swing low to manage risk. - Take Profit: Target key resistance levels based on previous price action. Market Sentiment: The falling wedge suggests potential bullish momentum. A confirmed breakout with strong price action can provide better validation for the buy setup.
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by PIPSFIGHTER
DXY – Break or Bounce? Key Levels to WatchTVC:DXY The DXY has broken below the 106.96 support, establishing a new fractal at 106.14 while testing the major April 2024 fractal resistance forged at 106.51. This price action leaves the dollar in a critical decision zone, with two main scenarios in play: 1️⃣ Bullish Scenario: If the dollar holds above the newly formed support and reclaims the daily fractal resistance at 107.38, it could trigger a recovery attempt, potentially leading to a retest of previous highs and the weekly fractal resistance. 2️⃣ Bearish Scenario: A failure to hold current levels could push the DXY below the emerging triangle structure, targeting the weekly fractal support at 105.42. A break below this level increases the probability of reaching the 200% Fibonacci extension at 104.59, where a bullish Crab pattern is projected in convergence —a critical area for potential trend reversals. 🔍 Key Technical Factors: 📌 Consolidation Triangle: DXY is stuck below the double top neckline but above the most recent fractal support forged at 106.14. 📌 Fibonacci Levels : The dollar is currently trading at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement (106.35) , with projected harmonic patterns aligning near the next 50% retracement level. 📌 Liquidity & Stop Hunts: Multiple bullish harmonic patterns emerging just below the weekly fractal support indicate possible stop-hunting activity against short positions. 💡 Key Levels to Watch: 📈 Resistance Levels: Weekly – 110.17 Daily – 107.38 4H – 106.65 Monthly – 106.51 📉 Support Levels: 4H – 106.17 Daily – 106.14 Weekly – 105.42 Monthly – 100.15 ⚠️ Final Thoughts: DXY is at a crucial inflection point. A breakout above 107.38 could fuel a bullish move, while a breakdown below 105.42 may accelerate a bearish extension towards 104.59-104.78. Until the price confirms direction, it is advisable to remain neutral and wait for a clear signal before committing to a directional bias. Happy Trading, André Cardoso 💡 Risk Warning: Trading financial assets carries a high level of risk and may result in the loss of all your capital. Make sure to fully understand the risks involved before you start trading and carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk tolerance. The data and information provided in this content do not constitute financial or investment advice and should not be considered as such. Only invest what you can afford to lose, and be aware of the risks associated with trading financial assets.
TVC:DXY
by Andre_Cardoso
DXY Bearish to 85-90The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). Here are some key insights from the chart: A zigzag corrective pattern is identified. Resistance levels at 113 and an inverse bearish level at 115 are highlighted. The Exponential Moving Average (EMA 9) and Simple Moving Average (SMA 50) are displayed. Elliott Wave analysis appears to be used, indicating a possible downward correction. A bearish scenario targeting around 90 in the long term is projected. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY). Here are some key insights from the chart: A weakening dollar will boost growth in the export sector. I believe this will occur during President Trump's term.
TVC:DXYShort
by Mostafa-Mir
1