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DXY: US dollar To Drop Further Around 95?The US dollar has been steadily declining since the new president was elected in the USA. This decline has been accompanied by the ongoing trade wars. Numerous economic indicators have supported this trend, and we anticipate further depreciation in the coming days or weeks. Before trading, it’s essential to conduct your own analysis and gain a comprehensive understanding of the market. We wish you the best of success in trading. Good luck and trade safely. Like and comment for more, and as always, happy trading! Team Setupsfx_
TVC:DXYShort
by Setupsfx_
4
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Weekly 2025Summary: The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) has corrected down to the key 38.60% Fibonacci retracement zone and is currently showing signs of a potential bullish reversal, bolstered by a clear hidden bullish divergence on the MACD. This may signal a renewed rally toward key upside targets, especially if the 93.3–99.9 support Zone holds. Chart Context: Current Price: 98.864 Key Fib Support: 38.60% @ 99.906, 48.60% @ 93.310, 61.80% @ 87.476 Support Zone: 93.3–99.9 USD Hidden Bullish Divergence: Observed both in 2021 and now again in 2025 on the MACD Trendline Support: Long-term ascending trendline holding since 2011 Fib Extension Targets (Trend-Based): TP1: 115.000 TP2: 120.000 TP3: 126.666 Key Technical Observations: Fibonacci Confluence: DXY is bouncing from a strong Fib cluster between 93.310 and 99.906, historically acting as a reversal zone. Hidden Bullish Divergence: Suggests potential upside despite price weakness. Downtrend Retest: Price may revisit 93.3–87.4 before confirming full reversal. Breakout Pathway: Green dashed arrows outline the likely recovery trajectory toward 114–126 range. Indicators: MACD: Showing hidden bullish divergence and potential signal crossover. Trendline Support: Holding intact from 2021 low. Fib Levels: Used for retracement and trend-based extension. Fundamental Context: Interest Rate Outlook: If U.S. inflation remains controlled and Fed signals future hikes or sustained high rates, DXY strength may persist. Global Liquidity & Recession Risk: If risk aversion returns, the dollar may rise as a safe haven. Geopolitical Risks: Conflicts, trade tensions, or BRICS dedollarization efforts may create volatility. Our Recent research suggests the Fed may maintain higher-for-longer rates due to resilient labor markets and sticky core inflation. This supports bullish USD bias unless macro shifts rapidly. Why DXY Could Continue Strengthening: Robust U.S. economic performance & monetary policy divergence U.S. GDP growth (~2.7% in 2024) outpaces developed peers (~1.7%), supporting stronger USD The Fed maintains restrictive rates (4.25–4.50%), while the ECB pivots to easing, widening the policy and yield gap . Inflation resilience and Fed hawkishness Labor markets remain tight, keeping inflation “sticky” and delaying expected rate cuts; market-implied cuts for 2025 have been pushed into 2026 Fed officials (e.g. Kugler) emphasize ongoing tariff-driven inflation, suggesting rates will stay elevated. Safe-haven and yield-seeking capital flows With global risks, capital favors USD-denominated assets for yield and stability Why the Dollar Might Face Headwinds Fiscal expansion & trade uncertainty Ballooning U.S. deficits (~$3.3 trn new debt) and erratic tariff policy undermine confidence in USD Wall Street’s consensus bearish position. Major banks largely expect a weaker dollar through 2025–26. However, this crowded bearish sentiment poses a risk of a sharp rebound if data surprises occur barons Tariff policy risks Trump's new tariffs could dampen dollar demand—yet if perceived as fiscal stimulus, they could unexpectedly buoy the USD . Synthesis for Our Biases A bullish DXY thesis is well-supported by: Economic and policy divergence (U.S. growth + Fed vs. peers). Hawkish Fed commentary and sticky inflation. Safe-haven capital inflows. Conversely, risks include: Deteriorating fiscal/trade dynamics. Potential Fed pivot once inflation shows clear decline. A consensus that could trigger a short squeeze or reversal if overstretched. Philosophical / Narrative View: The dollar remains the world’s dominant reserve currency. Periodic dips often act as strategic re-accumulation phases for institutional capital—especially during global macro uncertainty. A return toward 120+ reflects this persistent demand for USD liquidity and safety. Bias & Strategy Implication: 1. Primary Bias: Bullish, contingent on support at 93.3–99.9 holding. 2. Risk Scenario: Breakdown below 93.3 invalidates bullish thesis and targets 87.4–80 zones. Impact on Crypto & Gold and its Correlation and Scenarios: Historically, DXY has had an inverse correlation to both gold and crypto markets. When DXY strengthens, liquidity tends to rotate into dollar-denominated assets and away from risk-on trades like crypto and gold. When DXY weakens, it typically acts as a tailwind for both Bitcoin and gold. Correlation Coefficients: DXY vs. Gold: ≈ -0.85 (strong inverse correlation) DXY vs. TOTAL (crypto market cap): ≈ -0.72 (moderate to strong inverse correlation) Scenario 1: DXY Rallies toward 115–126 then, Expect gold to correct or stagnate, especially if yields rise. Crypto likely to pull back or remain suppressed unless specific bullish catalysts emerge (e.g., ETF flows or tech adoption). Scenario 2: DXY ranges between 93–105 then Gold may consolidate or form bullish continuation patterns. Then Crypto may see selective strength, particularly altcoins, if BTC.D declines. Scenario 3: DXY falls below 93 and toward 87 Then Gold likely to rally, possibly challenging all-time highs. Crypto could enter a major bull run, led by Bitcoin and followed by altcoins, fueled by increased liquidity and lower opportunity cost of holding non-USD assets. Understanding DXY’s direction provides valuable insight for portfolio positioning in macro-sensitive assets. Notes & Disclaimers: This analysis reflects a technical interpretation of the DXY index and is not financial advice. Market conditions may change based on unexpected macroeconomic events, Fed policy, or geopolitical developments.
TVC:DXYLong
by BitonGroup
"Inflation Drops, Jobless Claims Jump — What’s Next for DXY, Gol🚨 Markets are shifting fast. CPI and PPI both came in lower than expected, while jobless claims hit an 8-month high. This triple data combo could mark a turning point for the US economy and the Fed’s next move. In this video, I break down: 🔹 What soft inflation and rising unemployment mean for monetary policy 🔹 How DXY is reacting to weakening USD sentiment 🔹 Key levels for XAUUSD as rate cut bets rise 🔹 Where BTCUSD may head next with risk-on momentum building 📊 Technical + Fundamental insights — all in one session. 👉 Drop your thoughts in the comments and follow for more real-time market breakdowns! #DXY #XAUUSD #BTCUSD #Inflation #FedWatch #TradingViewAnalysis #MacroUpdate #Forex #Crypto #Gold
TVC:DXY
by DeanMuller
Dollar Index Eyes FVG Breakout Ahead of CPIDXY 11/06 – Dollar Index Eyes FVG Breakout Ahead of CPI | Reversal Risk After 100.31? The US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to consolidate within a rising channel on the H2 timeframe, with price tightening just ahead of a key macro event — the US CPI report. DXY is now approaching a critical Fair Value Gap (FVG) zone, where liquidity hunts and potential reversals become highly probable. 🌐 MACRO OUTLOOK & MARKET SENTIMENT 📌 US CPI (June 12): The main macro driver for DXY this week. A hotter-than-expected print → strengthens the Fed’s hawkish stance → DXY likely to spike. A weaker-than-expected CPI → boosts rate cut expectations → downside pressure on DXY. 📌 Risk Sentiment: Institutions are readjusting their exposure ahead of CPI and FOMC. This has caused DXY to hover near EMA89 — a sign of indecision. 📌 Cross-asset Flows (Bonds & Gold): Treasury yields are stable, but surprises in CPI could lead to capital rotation between gold and USD, increasing volatility in XAUUSD and DXY simultaneously. 📈 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Trend Structure: DXY is following a clean ascending channel on H2, with higher lows respecting the lower trendline. EMA Confluence (13–34–89–200) Price is consolidating near EMA89 and below EMA200 (99.40), forming a neutral short-term bias. A clean breakout above EMA200 could trigger acceleration into the FVG zone. Key FVG Zone (H2): 99.63 – 100.31 is an unfilled Fair Value Gap. This zone may act as a magnet for price before any meaningful rejection or breakout. Potential Reversal Area: A rejection at 100.31 could trigger a sharp pullback toward the liquidity zone around 98.68. 🧠 STRATEGIC OUTLOOK CPI will set the tone for DXY’s mid-term trend. Watch the 99.63 – 100.31 FVG zone for liquidity sweeps and potential rejection. Wait for confirmation, not prediction — especially in macro-sensitive environments.
TVC:DXYLong
by MMFlowTrading
DXY: Local Bullish Bias! Long! My dear friends, Today we will analyse DXY together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 97.757 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 97.970.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by FreeXauusdSignals
DXY ||| • Sell Completed Below Orange Line📉 Pair: GBP/USD ⏱ Timeframe: 4H 🔶 Orange Line = Major S/R Zone 📌 Confirmed Break + Retest 🎯 Profit Locked | Risk Managed Strategy: Elliott Wave + Parallel Channel + SMC (Break of Structure) 🔶 Status: Completed Wave 5 inside falling wedge Sell executed after orange support break Anticipating accumulation phase > BOS > bullish reversal 📍Key Zones: Demand zone near 97.455 Resistance near 98.426 🎯 Next Steps: Looking for bullish structure post BOS + Wave 2 pullback. 🔁 Watch for: Accumulation near lower trendline Structure shift > Breakout of wedge Long confirmations in late July – early August 🟢 Plan the trade, trade the plan.
TVC:DXYShort
by Greenfireforex
Caution for Dollar Shorts with Middle East Tensions FlaringMy educated guess is that the dollar is moving similar to the first time trump was elected. I am expecting dollar weakness to abate early next year. A major swing low formed in early 2018 one year after Trump was elected first round. Let us see if a similar situation forms next year. For now with DXY structured bearish caution is warranted with Oil up and 10 yr remaining elevated. There is a prior up move in April and until a decisive break below the current area Price Action and circumstances in the middle east warrant caution for dollar shorts.
TVC:DXY
by Trade_Navigator
Follow up on DXY Short post from 2022The DXY follows Fib levels quite accurately on macro movements using the monthly chart. Both on retracement and extension. It has recently tagged the .618 retrace of the last bullish wave 5 movement that started its decline. I would suppose it is close to completion of wave A of a ABC correction that will play out over the next several months. As it tagged the .618 mentioned above, it has also tagged the .786 extension of what is likely the c wave of the abc structure (of the larger A). B wave trade to the upside has good probability now in my opinion. I took the trade this morning with a 3-1 RR in place. It could fall to the trend line which is fine, but if it breaks in earnest and closes a few sessions below then my stop would be triggered. There was a bullish divergence prior to the April lows on the Daily TF and one is developing at the current lows. A close above 99.40 would confirm. Long term the dollar is likely still going to weaken and go much lower as QE inevitably comes back into the market picture. TP levels are at 99.40, 100.54, 101.25 and 101.76.
TVC:DXYLong
by cogent-trader
Bullish bounce?USD Dollar Index (DXY) has bounced off the pivot and could rise to the 1st resistance. Pivot: 97.81 1st Support: 97.19 1st Resistance: 98.69 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYLong
by ICmarkets
Just got the May US CPIs. PPIs next...Here is the reaction in the US instruments to the numbers. Let's dig in. TVC:DXY TVC:DJI MARKETSCOM:US500 MARKETSCOM:US100 Let us know what you think in the comments below. Thank you. 77.3% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. The value of investments may fall as well as rise and the investor may not get back the amount initially invested. This content is not intended for nor applicable to residents of the UK. Cryptocurrency CFDs and spread bets are restricted in the UK for all retail clients.
MARKETSCOM:DOLLARINDEX
by Marketscom
Bearish continuation?US Dollar Index (DXY) is rising towards the pivot and could drop to the 1st support. Pivot: 100.54 1st Support: 98.32 1st Resistance: 101.78 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) Bearish Setup – Supply Zone Rejection & 🔹 Trend Overview 📊 Overall Trend: Bearish (Downtrend) 📉 Price is forming lower highs and lower lows within a descending channel. 🔻 Recently bounced off a support zone, now heading toward a potential pullback. 🔵 Supply Zone (Resistance Area) 📍 Zone Range: 100.049 – 100.601 🧱 Acts as a resistance block where sellers might step in. 📏 Confluent with EMA 70 at 100.178, strengthening its validity. 🔸 Trade Setup – Short Position 🟠 ENTRY POINT: 100.088 ❌ STOP LOSS: 100.587 – 100.595 (Just above supply zone) 🎯 TARGET: 98.000 (With intermediate support levels) 📌 Support Levels 🔹 98.112 – First minor support 🔹 98.106 – Close-range confirmation 🔹 97.885 – Additional support zone 🟦 Main Target: 98.000 ⚖️ Risk/Reward Ratio 🟧 Small risk above supply zone 🟩 Large reward to downside = Favorable R:R 📌 Summary 📈 Expecting a pullback into supply zone. 🧨 Look for bearish confirmation around 100.088. 🎯 Target the downside at 98.000 for profit.
TVC:DXYShort
by Jameshead007
18
DOLLAR INDEXThe DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) is a measure of the U.S. dollar’s value relative to a basket of six major foreign currencies: the euro (57.6%), Japanese yen (13.6%), British pound (11.9%), Canadian dollar (9.1%), Swedish krona (4.2%), and Swiss franc (3.6%). It serves as a benchmark for the dollar’s global strength and is influenced by macroeconomic factors like interest rates, trade flows, and inflation expectations. 10 years bond yield Correlations with DXY 1. 10-Year Bond Yield Positive Correlation: The DXY and U.S. 10-year Treasury yields generally move in the same direction. Higher yields attract foreign capital into U.S. bonds, increasing demand for dollars and strengthening the DXY. Current 10-Year Yield (June 12, 2025): 4.36%, down slightly from 4.41% the previous day but up 1.16% year-over-year. 2. Bond Price Inverse Relationship with Yields: Bond prices fall when yields rise (and vice versa). Since DXY and yields are positively correlated, the dollar tends to strengthen when bond prices decline. 3. Interest Rates Direct Link: Higher U.S. interest rates increase the dollar’s appeal as investors seek higher returns, boosting DXY. Conversely, rate cuts weaken the dollar. Example: The Federal Reserve’s rate hikes in 2023–2024 contributed to DXY strength, while recent rate-cut expectations have moderated its gains. Current 10-Year Treasury Yield As of June 12, 2025, the 10-year Treasury yield is 4.36%, below its long-term average of 5.83%. Key Drivers of DXY in 2025 Federal Reserve Policy: Markets are pricing in potential rate cuts later in 2025, which could limit DXY upside. Global Risk Sentiment: Safe-haven dollar demand rises during geopolitical or economic uncertainty. Inflation Trends: Persistent U.S. inflation could delay Fed easing, supporting DXY technical level to watch is the support level at 97,949
TVC:DXY
by Shavyfxhub