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USD Tests Long-Term Support + Weekly OversoldLast week I highlighted the oversold reading on the weekly DXY chart. While bulls didn't exactly put in a massive showing it was also one of the first green weekly bars in a month. Notably, the monthly April bar looks very bearish but the bulk of those losses were in the first 11 days of the month and last week, on Monday, a massive spot of support came into play at the 38.2% retracement of the 2008-2024 major move. This is confluent with a trendline projection, connecting 2001 and 2020 highs, which had come in to hold support back in July of 2023. This adds context to the possibility of a pullback in the USD and this meshes with the 1.1500 resistance test in EUR/USD. - js
TVC:DXY
by FOREXcom
DXY Will Go Up! Buy! Here is our detailed technical review for DXY. Time Frame: 5h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a significant support area 100.036. The underlined horizontal cluster clearly indicates a highly probable bullish movement with target 100.899 level. P.S The term oversold refers to a condition where an asset has traded lower in price and has the potential for a price bounce. Overbought refers to market scenarios where the instrument is traded considerably higher than its fair value. Overvaluation is caused by market sentiments when there is positive news. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1
DXY 4H Chart AnalysisThe U.S. Dollar Index is currently consolidating near the 99.400 level, within a broader bearish trend. Price is sitting just above key H4 support (~99.000), making this a critical decision zone. Bullish scenario: Rejection from 99.000 could lead to a retracement towards 100.000, and potentially 102.500 if momentum holds. Bearish scenario: A break below 99.000 would confirm further downside, possibly targeting 97.500 and beyond. Traders should wait for clear price action confirmation before committing to a direction.
TVC:DXY
by BeaucoupPips
DXY: Will Go Up! Long! My dear friends, Today we will analyse DXY together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 98.933 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move up so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 99.097.Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
CAPITALCOM:DXYLong
by FreeXauusdSignals
1
Dollar Index - Short Term Relief Rally Upcoming?From the beginning of 2025, it's been nothing but pain in the markets; bearish prices on bearish prices and it's not looking like it's the ends. But wheat happens when the market is trading one way for a long time is you tend to have short squeezes. This is where traders place and trail their stop losses above recent highs with the expectation that the market will not reverse back into the highs before continuing lower. I believe something like this can play out this week It all depends on Sundays opening....
TVC:DXYLong
by LegendSince
Price Action + Fundamentals Point to Dollar StrengthThe current market environment presents compelling evidence for a bullish move in the US Dollar Index (DXY). While some patience is required, the setup is increasingly favorable for the dollar to appreciate in the coming weeks and months. Key Factors Supporting a Bullish Move: Monthly Close Above 100.160: A critical technical level to monitor is the monthly close above 100.160. If achieved, it would signal a strong bullish breakout, setting the stage for a continuation higher. Given current price action and market dynamics, this scenario looks highly probable. However, if the price fails to close above 100.160 and instead breaks below it, we could potentially start looking for short opportunities. Bond Market Strength (30Y, 10Y, 5Y): This past week, we witnessed notable strength across the US bond market. Yields declined as prices rose, typically a positive signal for the dollar as it reflects capital inflows into US assets. COT Report Insights: The Commitment of Traders (COT) report reveals a critical shift: commercial traders, often considered the "smart money," are beginning to accumulate long positions in the dollar. This change in positioning historically precedes significant bullish moves. Seasonal Patterns: Seasonality also favors the dollar during this period. Historically, the dollar tends to strengthen in the mid-year months, aligning perfectly with the current technical and fundamental landscape. Targets: Initial Target: 106.120 Given the accumulation signs and supportive macro backdrop, a move towards 106.120 seems very realistic.
TVC:DXYLong
by Wiiso
DXY ... Dollar Index looks not as clean Gann reviewNot too much to explain here...just see the highlighted areas and see that the Gann box Stacking strikes again with some interesting levels. The light angles are kinds nice, but the most recent one where the price is now seems to be the only thing holding it back from being a green face smash to 96... Mor Tariff... Mor pain for the Dolla Dolla Bill y' all This is the larger picture and see as to how I come to these Gann box alignments: Again...You just find pivots and span them with the box- then stack or slide them with points all being contiguous and you have your price action analysis. Above chart is the weekly. Just imagine if there was any significance to the 2001 high and then the 2008 lows when it comes to geopolitics or financial situations....one could say: Its almost like a twin peak, one with a tower on it, just suddenly got hit out of nowhere and then crashed down to the Great Financial Center down below..hmmm VV
TVC:DXY
by CYQOTEK
U.S. DOLLAR INDEX (DXY) | MACRO OUTLOOKWe’re currently trading at $99.58 — down 8.2% from the recent high around $114.77. Looking at this 12M chart, we see DXY failing to hold its breakout above the previous cycle highs. 🟣 Key Historical Levels: Last major high: 1985 peak Previous structure high: $121.18 Long-term support zones: $88.25, $75, and $72.81 🔻 Macro view suggests we could be entering another multi-year corrective phase if momentum doesn’t reclaim previous highs. What’s next? Will the dollar revisit deeper support — or surprise us with a reclaim and breakout? 👁 Stay alert. This chart isn’t just about the USD — it impacts commodities, equities, emerging markets, and crypto. #DXY #USDollar #MacroTrading #LongTermOutlook #DollarIndex #TechnicalAnalysis #SmartMoneyMoves #RecessionWatch
TVC:DXYShort
by MoNi_MoN
USD Index: A Possible Reversal in Sight?Since early February, right after Trump’s inauguration, the USD Index (DXY) has been under pressure, falling sharply by over 10%. However, after hitting the 98.00 level, things seem to have stabilized. We're seeing the early signs of a relief rally. 🔍 Technical Perspective: - This week’s candlestick pattern suggests a bullish reversal. - The dip on Wednesday was quickly bought, showing buyer interest. - A minor correction occurred yesterday, but dips are being well supported. - Currently, the DXY trades around 99.60, just under the psychological level of 100. 🎯 Outlook: As long as 98 remains intact, the bias shifts towards a potential rebound. First target: 102 – a logical resistance zone and prior support. This is not yet a confirmed trend reversal, but the price action is shifting. The key now is how the market reacts around the 100 level. A break above could trigger further bullish momentum.
TVC:DXYLong
by Mihai_Iacob
DXYThe US Dollar Index (DXY) is showing a downward trend as institutional investors continue to prioritize selling over buying. This sentiment is reflected in the increasing number of sell orders compared to buy orders. Key Observations: - DXY price action indicates a bearish trend. - Institutional investors are adding more sells than buys, contributing to the downward pressure. Trading Implications: - Short positions may be favored given the prevailing bearish sentiment. - Traders should monitor key support levels for potential breakouts or reversals.
TVC:DXYShort
by Primus0725
Dollar Milkshake Theory: Will the US Dollar Suck the World Dry?Imagine a colossal milkshake party where every country brings its own flavor—sweet euros, tangy yen, spicy rupees—blended into a global liquidity shake. Now picture the United States, armed with a giant straw, slurping up every last drop while the rest of the world watches in dismay. 🍓🍫🍦 This vivid analogy isn’t just a quirky dessert dream—it’s the heart of Brent Johnson’s Dollar Milkshake Theory, a provocative economic idea that’s been shaking up financial circles since 2018. But is the US dollar really about to dominate the global economy, or will it choke on its own straw? Let’s dive into this creamy concoction of macroeconomics, recent trends, and global stakes—complete with a cherry of skepticism on top! 🍒 🥛 What’s the Dollar Milkshake Theory, Anyway? Brent Johnson, CEO of Santiago Capital, isn’t just a wealth manager—he’s a financial storyteller who’s been stirring the pot with his Dollar Milkshake Theory. Picture this: the global economy is a giant milkshake, with frothy assets (stocks, bonds, commodities) floating on top, and the milk, cream, and sugar representing the cash flows between markets. The straw? That’s the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, sucking up liquidity when it tightens, leaving other economies parched. Johnson’s core idea is simple yet bold: during global economic turmoil, the US dollar—thanks to its status as the world’s reserve currency—becomes a safe haven. Investors worldwide flock to it, driving its value skyward while other currencies wither. 🌎💰 Since 2008, global central banks have pumped roughly $30 trillion in liquidity into the system through quantitative easing (QE), creating a massive “milkshake” of money. But when the Fed raises rates, as it has in recent years, the US siphons that liquidity, leaving other nations scrambling to pay dollar-denominated debts. Here’s the kicker: this isn’t a one-time sip. Johnson predicts a feedback loop where the dollar’s strength forces other countries to print more of their own currencies to buy dollars, further weakening their economies and reinforcing the dollar’s dominance. It’s a vicious cycle—a “milkshake” that could leave the global economy in a sticky mess. 🌀 📈 The Recipe for Dollar Dominance: Why the US Holds the Straw Why does the US get to drink everyone else’s milkshake? It’s all about structural advantages baked into the global financial system: Reserve Currency Status 💵: The US dollar has been the world’s reserve currency since the 1944 Bretton Woods Agreement. As of 2022, it accounted for 58% of global foreign exchange reserves, dwarfing the euro’s 20% share . From oil to copper, most global trade is priced in dollars, creating constant demand. Deep Capital Markets 🏦: The US has the deepest and most liquid bond markets, especially for Treasuries, making it the go-to place for investors seeking safety during crises. Higher Interest Rates 📊: When the Fed raises rates, as it did aggressively in 2022-2023 to combat inflation, the dollar becomes more attractive compared to currencies like the euro or yen, where central banks like the ECB and BOJ have been slower to tighten . Global Dependence on Dollars 🌐: Over 60% of international reserves are in dollars, and many countries and corporations hold dollar-denominated debt. When the dollar strengthens, their debt burden skyrockets, forcing them to buy more dollars to service it . Johnson argues this isn’t just a cyclical trend—it’s a structural feature of the modern financial system. As he put it on Real Vision in 2018, “The dollar’s dominance is structural, not cyclical”. The US doesn’t just sip the milkshake—it guzzles it, leaving others to scrape the bottom of the glass. 🥤 📅 2025 Reality Check: Is the Milkshake Theory Playing Out? Fast forward to April 2025, and the global economy is a blender of chaos: trade tensions, high debt levels, and monetary policy shifts are whipping up a storm. Does Johnson’s theory hold water—or rather, milk? Let’s look at the evidence. 🕵️‍♂️ 🟢 The Bull Case: The Dollar’s Straw Is Sucking Hard DXY Strength in 2024-2025: The US dollar index (DXY) surged 7% in 2024, hitting a two-year high of 108.07 in November 2024, driven by US economic growth, tariffs, and global uncertainty . Despite a recent 8% drop over the last two months (from ~106.8 in mid-February 2025 to 98.423 as of April 22, 2025), the DXY remains near historic highs, aligning with Johnson’s prediction of dollar strength during stress. Historical Precedents: During the 2020 COVID crisis, the DXY jumped as the Fed provided $450 billion in swap lines to ease dollar shortages globally, reinforcing the dollar’s safe-haven role. In 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pushed the DXY to a 20-year high of 114, as capital fled to the US amid Europe’s energy crisis. Global Liquidity Squeeze: High-debt economies like Japan (debt-to-GDP at 255%) and the Eurozone (Italy at 139%, France at 112%) are under pressure. Capital flight to the US, especially if their growth falters, supports the milkshake effect. Safe-Haven Demand: Posts on X reflect sentiment that the dollar’s strength is tied to its stability in an unstable world, with some users noting its “dug-in” status as global liquidity flows to the US . 🔴 The Bear Case: Is the Straw Starting to Bend? Recent DXY Drop: The 8% decline in the DXY over the last two months (mid-February to April 2025) signals vulnerability. Trade war fears, threats to Fed independence, and a weakening US trade balance are weighing on the dollar. Some X users predict a further drop to 96-97, or even 87, if support levels break. Fed Policy Shifts: The Fed began cutting rates in September 2024, which typically weakens the dollar by reducing its yield advantage. This move, aimed at balancing inflation and growth, could undermine the milkshake effect if it continues. Dedollarization Efforts: BRICS nations are pushing to reduce dollar reliance, with China and India holding significant non-dollar reserves ($3,682 billion and $662 billion, respectively, as of April 2025). A shift toward commodity-based currencies could challenge the dollar long-term. US Debt Concerns: The US’s soaring debt levels (over 120% of GDP in 2024) and inflation above the Fed’s 2% target raise questions about the dollar’s sustainability. If confidence in US fiscal health wanes, the milkshake could spill. 🌪️ What Happens If the Milkshake Theory Plays Out? If Johnson is right, the global economy could face a bitter aftertaste. Here’s what a super-strong dollar might mean: Currency Crises Abroad 💥: Countries with dollar-denominated debt—like many emerging markets—would struggle as their debt burdens soar. A stronger dollar means they need more of their own currency to buy dollars, potentially triggering defaults. Commodity Price Slumps 📉: A rising dollar often leads to lower commodity prices (priced in dollars), hurting exporters like Brazil or Australia. This could stifle growth in developing economies. US Export Woes 🚢: An overly strong dollar makes US goods pricier abroad, hurting American exporters. US companies could lose competitiveness, impacting economic growth. Safe-Haven Asset Boom 🪙: Investors might flock to alternatives like gold or Bitcoin to hedge against currency devaluation. Gold recently hit $3,400 amid the DXY’s slide, and Bitcoin has seen gains as a “risk-on” asset. Geopolitical Shifts 🌍: A dominant dollar could lead more countries to peg their currencies to the USD for stability, as 65 nations already do (e.g., Hong Kong, Saudi Arabia). But it might also accelerate dedollarization efforts, with BRICS nations seeking alternatives. 🤔 Skeptics Stir the Pot : Is the Milkshake Theory Too Sweet to Be True? Not everyone’s sipping Johnson’s milkshake. Critics argue it’s more of a financial fairy tale than a robust theory: Oversimplification 📊: The global economy is far more complex than a milkshake analogy. The theory focuses heavily on Fed policy but downplays other central banks’ actions, geopolitical tensions, and the rise of digital currencies. Lack of Timeframes ⏳: Johnson’s predictions lack clear timelines, making them hard to test. As some X users have pointed out, being “too early” in financial markets is as good as being wrong. Counter-Theories 🌐: Economist Zoltan Pozsar’s Bretton Woods III Theory suggests a shift toward commodity-based currencies in the East, potentially weakening the dollar. Post-Russia-Ukraine war, nations are diversifying away from the USD, favoring hard assets like gold. US Vulnerabilities 🇺🇸 : The US’s own fiscal health—high debt, persistent inflation, and trade deficits—could undermine the dollar. Recent tariffs and supply chain shifts (e.g., moving away from China) may raise production costs, fueling inflation and slowing growth. 💡 What’s Next for the Dollar Milkshake in 2025 and Beyond? As of April 22, 2025, the DXY’s recent 8% drop is a speed bump, not a derailment, for the Milkshake Theory. The long-term chart you provided projects the DXY climbing to 120-130 by the late 2020s, suggesting this dip might be a correction within a broader uptrend. But the road ahead is frothy with uncertainty: Watch the Fed 🏛️: If the Fed continues rate cuts, the dollar’s yield advantage could shrink, slowing the milkshake effect. Conversely, renewed tightening could reignite dollar strength. Global Crises ⚡: Ongoing trade wars, like US-China tensions, or new geopolitical shocks could drive more capital to the US, reinforcing the theory. Dedollarization Risks 🌏: If BRICS nations succeed in reducing dollar reliance, the US straw might not suck as hard in the future. 🥛 Sip or Spill: Should You Buy Into the Milkshake Theory? Brent Johnson’s Dollar Milkshake Theory is a compelling narrative that captures the US dollar’s unique power in a turbulent world. The evidence—DXY strength, historical crises, and global dollar demand—suggests there’s cream in this shake. But the theory isn’t without cracks: the US’s own vulnerabilities, dedollarization efforts, and the recent DXY dip remind us that even the mightiest straw can bend. 🥤 For investors, this means staying nimble. A stronger dollar could hurt emerging markets and commodities, but it might boost safe-haven assets like gold or Bitcoin. Keep an eye on Fed policy, global growth, and geopolitical shifts—they’ll determine whether the US keeps sipping or the milkshake spills. 🌍💸 What do you think—will the dollar dominate, or is the party over? Let’s hear your thoughts! 🗣️
TVC:DXYLong
by RoadToAMillionClub