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WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT IN THE U.S. ECONOMY WHAT WILL HAPPEN NEXT IN THE U.S. ECONOMY It’s the Dollar Index (DXY) forming a bottom on the D1 timeframe and adjusting upward to the 106 zone. Naturally, U.S. stock markets will experience positive growth again. This is a signal for the rise of BTC and, conversely, a decline in gold prices. Gold will soon peak in this month of April, making way for the growth of DXY, BTC, U.S. stocks, and technology shares. This is the art of capital flow within the economy, the financial environment, and the continuous rotation driven by market makers. Good luck.
TVC:DXYLong
by rainbow_sniper
DXY on the EdgeTrump's trade policies in Q1 have significantly influenced global markets, with critics arguing that his import tariffs are destabilizing the economic and monetary order. These measures have sparked concerns about U.S. dollar confidence, potentially leading to financial instability and broader economic consequences. 🔹 DXY Technical Analysis The US Dollar Index (DXY) is at a critical juncture, currently hovering around 103.376—a key level that will determine the next major move. 📈 Bullish Scenario: If DXY holds above 103.376, it may push towards the 106.160 and 107.595 resistance levels. 📉 Bearish Scenario: A break below 103.376 could send DXY further down, targeting 101.805 and 100.235 as potential support zones. 📌 Key Levels: Resistance: 106.160, 107.595 Support: 103.376, 101.805, 100.235 ⚠ Risk Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice or a trading signal. Always confirm with your own strategy before making any trading decisions.
INDEX:DXY
by juniormoseki1
DXY March 30 Weekly AnalysisDXY March 30 Weekly Analysis *My parent bias is still bear coming into this week. *No news Monday *Previous session price is in a discount and in a consolidation cycle. *Note that price is weaving in between 2 HFT inefficiencies. *Study Sundays delivery Since March 18 Price has had a run on buy stops. Price pivoted on Wednesday at the 50 level of the range its trading in. I like how Price came up to the 50 level of the range its trading in and didn't spend much time there before breaking down. Avoiding the market on high resistance days like Thursday is getting easier to identify. When price is high resistance it is tipping its hand to a larger move coming so be patience and wait for price to come to my levels. NFC is this week. Will complete my weekly idea once Sundays delivers. My bias is lower prices and suspect it could be a violative week of Price delivery. Stay humble to what Price prints and don't get stuck in any idea yet be nimble.
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena
DXY Analysis - 31 March - 4 April 2025Key Observations: Break of Structure (BoS): Multiple bullish BoS on H4 and H1 suggest a potential bullish reversal in the coming week. Demand Zone (DZ): The H1 demand zone is still holding, indicating a possible liquidity sweep before resuming bullish momentum. Supply Zone (SZ): Two H1 supply zones above current price act as resistance levels. Critical Level at 103.84: If price breaks below 103.84, a bearish reversal may align with the higher time frame (HTF) bearish outlook. Support & Resistance: Several significant support and resistance levels are marked. RSI Indicator: The RSI is around 31.24, indicating the market is approaching oversold conditions. Outlook: Bullish Scenario: If the demand zone holds, the price could reverse upwards, targeting the supply zones. Bearish Scenario: A break below 103.84 may trigger a deeper drop, aligning with the broader bearish trend.
TVC:DXYLong
by nelsonn_fx
DXY:Today's Trading StrategyTrump signed an executive order announcing a 25% tariff on all imported cars, aiming to force the return of many automotive manufacturing and related industries through the "tariff stick." However, the actual situation is more complex. Currently, there are significant issues within the US domestic industrial chain system, with declining quality and craftsmanship, failing to meet the needs of many automotive manufacturing enterprises. As a result, this measure is unlikely to achieve the desired effect and may even harm the US itself. The US Dollar Index is the first to bear the brunt. Upon the market's confirmation that Trump has officially signed the order and tariffs will be imposed, the pressure on the US Dollar Index suddenly emerged, squandering the hard-earned advantages accumulated yesterday. This led to a sharp decline in the US Dollar Index early today. Regarding today's trading strategy, it is recommended to adopt a trading approach based on the market's oscillatory trend. One can seize the opportunity to sell the US Dollar Index short at highs and buy non-US currencies at lows, as the current market demand indicates that the US Dollar Index cannot truly rise, nor will it experience a significant decline for now. Therefore, it is advisable to find opportunities to sell the US Dollar Index short at highs during the market's oscillation. Trading strategy: buy@103.70-103.80 TP:104.50-105.00 Get daily trading signals that ensure continuous profits! With an astonishing 90% accuracy rate, I'm the record - holder of an 800% monthly return. Click the link below the article to obtain accurate signals now!
TVC:DXYLong
by LeoBlackwood
DXY Is Bullish! Long! Take a look at our analysis for DXY. Time Frame: 6h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is testing a major horizontal structure 104.402. Taking into consideration the structure & trend analysis, I believe that the market will reach 105.208 level soon. P.S Overbought describes a period of time where there has been a significant and consistent upward move in price over a period of time without much pullback. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1
DOLLAR INDEX Good Day Fellow Traders We have seen that the Dollar has stopped trending at 110 area as market on the chart as a weekly level of resistance, with thus we have closely been tracking the cot index which indicates that a correction is due, although there has not been much action of impulsive move down, we do expect at least a 3-wave pullback down to the 105 area, should this level break it open the chart for a drop down to the weekly level at 104.00. Yesterday we had a higher inflation reading, with trump policies in action we could expect more of the same higher volatile moves to come and USD to be the dominant trading currency under the rain of Trump. My personal opinion would be to stay away from forex pairs and rather shift focus to swing and position trade the global indices as political turmoil will affect currencies most, look at monthly, weekly and daily charts(entries) with wide stops
TVC:DXY
by Mike_SnD
1
Dollar near term strenght coming, Weekly demand holdingThe DOllar has been in a decline over the last couple of months, We can see from tracking how the COT INDEX COT Index in Forex for 6 months and 36 months The 6-month and 36-month time frames typically refer to the historical analysis of COT data for specific currency pairs, providing insights into: 6-month COT Index: This reflects the trading positions over the past 6 months. It shows the trends in how market participants (e.g., hedge funds or commercial traders) have been positioned recently. Traders typically use this shorter time frame to gauge recent trends and near-term sentiment. A higher COT Index value indicates that speculators have a larger net long position, suggesting potential bullish sentiment, and vice versa for a lower COT Index. 36-month COT Index: This reflects the trading positions over the past 3 years. It provides a longer-term view of trader positioning, helping to identify historical trends and market cycles. A higher 36-month COT Index suggests persistent bullish positioning over the longer term, we can see the Dollar has been bought up at WEEKLY Demand, we will start looking for a shift to buy the Dollar on a daily chart.
TVC:DXYLong
by Mike_SnD
US Dollar's Worst Month Since 2023: DXY Faces Make-or-Break The greenback ends Q1 under pressure as soft inflation data, central bank divergence, and rising risk appetite weigh on the long-term outlook. 📉 A Fragile Finish to Q1 for the Dollar As we close out March and head into Q2, the US Dollar Index (DXY) is on track for its worst monthly performance since December 2023, erasing nearly half of its four-month rally. From a high of 110.00 in January 2025, the index has dropped to a recent low of 102.84, highlighting growing fragility in the dollar's long-term structure. The 7.2% slide since the start of the year reflects shifting expectations around Federal Reserve policy, global interest rate convergence, and an increase in risk-on sentiment. With the DXY trading around 103.80 at the time of writing, bulls are struggling to reclaim momentum above the critical 104.00 barrier—a zone that has served as both support and resistance over the last eight months. 🔍 What's Driving the Weakness? Several fundamental forces have contributed to the dollar's Q1 decline: 📉 1. Cooling Inflation and Dovish Fed Signals February and March inflation prints came in softer than expected, leading markets to price in rate cuts sooner than the Fed's official guidance. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has maintained a cautious tone, but recent FOMC minutes and commentary from regional presidents suggest that a mid-year rate cut is increasingly likely—a development that undermines the dollar's yield advantage. 🌍 2. Global Central Bank Catch-Up The European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE) have recently resisted premature rate cut expectations, with hawkish commentary supporting their respective currencies. Meanwhile, Japan's move away from the ultra-loose monetary policy has lifted the yen, reducing the dollar's appeal as a carry-trade favourite. 💹 3. Equities, Risk-On Sentiment, and Gold Strength The S&P 500's record highs, strong demand for emerging markets, and gold's breakout to new all-time highs are clear indicators of a market rotating into risk assets and inflation hedges—further weakening safe-haven demand for the dollar. 📊 Technical Analysis: 104.00 Is the Line in the Sand The DXY's decline from 110.00 has retraced 50% of the four-month rally, with a firm low found at 102.84 earlier this month. While that level has provided near-term support, upside momentum remains capped below 104.00, a multi-month resistance level that must be reclaimed to reestablish bullish control. 🔺 Key Resistance Levels: 104.00 – Multi-month pivot zone, critical for trend shift 104.46 – Minor breakout level; confirmation of bullish continuation 105.96 – Short-term upside target if 104.46 is cleared 🔻 Key Support Zones: 103.58–103.25 – Minor support zone just below current levels 102.84 – March low; major near-term support 102.39–102.00 – Final downside target if 102.84 fails A break below 102.84 could accelerate bearish momentum into the 102.00 psychological level, especially if April's macro data confirms a slowing US economy or rising expectations for rate cuts. 🧭 April's Outlook: All Eyes on 104.00 The month of April will be pivotal in shaping the medium- to long-term outlook for the dollar. Key catalysts to watch include: March jobs report (NFP) – Signs of labour market cooling will intensify rate cut bets. Core PCE inflation – The Fed's preferred inflation gauge could confirm the disinflation trend. Geopolitical developments – Ongoing tensions in the Red Sea, Taiwan, and Ukraine could spark temporary safe-haven flows, but may not be enough to reverse the downtrend. Unless the DXY can close April above 104.46, it risks confirming a longer-term bearish reversal, which could open the door to sub-100 scenarios later in the year—especially if US macro data continues to soften and global rate differentials tighten further. 🔄 Scenarios to Watch: Bulls Need a Breakout 📈 Bullish Scenario: Price holds above 103.25, reclaims 104.00, and breaks 104.46 Momentum builds toward 105.96 April data surprises to the upside, delaying Fed cuts 📉 Bearish Scenario: Rejection at 104.00, breakdown below 102.84 Push into 102.00 support zone or lower April macro data reinforces dovish narrative, equity strength continues ⚠️ Final Thoughts: Cautious Tone, Technical Pressure The US dollar is ending Q1 under clear technical and fundamental pressure, with the DXY sitting at a critical inflection point. While the March low at 102.84 may hold in the short term, failure to break above 104.00–104.46 will leave the index vulnerable to further downside. With central bank divergence fading and risk appetite on the rise, the greenback's role as a defensive play is weakening. Unless April delivers a surprise upside catalyst, the path of least resistance appears to remain lower.
TVC:DXY
by Rotuma
US Dollar Weakens: Hedge Funds Shift to Short PositionsThe U.S. dollar, long considered a bastion of stability, is facing a significant shift in sentiment as hedge funds begin to adopt a bearish stance. This reversal, marking a notable change since the period following Donald Trump's election, is driven by a complex interplay of economic uncertainties and evolving market expectations. Factors Driving the Bearish Turn: • Shifting Federal Reserve Expectations: o A key driver of this bearish sentiment is the evolving outlook on the Federal Reserve's monetary policy. Initially, expectations of a strong dollar were bolstered by projections of limited Fed rate cuts. However, growing concerns about the fragility of the U.S. economy have led to increased expectations of multiple rate reductions. This shift in expectations weakens the dollar's appeal. • Economic Uncertainty and Trade Policies: o Concerns surrounding potential trade wars and the impact of certain economic policies are also weighing on the dollar. Uncertainty about future trade relations and their potential impact on U.S. economic growth is creating apprehension among hedge fund managers. o The impacts of possible public sector job cuts, and restrictive immigration policies, are also adding to the economic uncertainty. • Data from the CFTC: o Data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) reveals a clear trend. Speculative traders have moved from holding significant long-dollar positions to net short positions, indicating a substantial shift in market sentiment. • Global Economic Factors: o The relative strength of other global economies also plays a role. If other global economies are showing signs of stronger growth, that can also put downward pressure on the dollar. Implications of a Weaker Dollar: • Impact on Global Trade: o A weaker dollar can have significant implications for global trade, potentially making U.S. exports more competitive while increasing the cost of imports. • Inflationary Pressures: o A depreciating dollar can also contribute to inflationary pressures within the U.S. as import prices rise. • Investment Flows: o Changes in the dollar's value can influence international investment flows, as investors adjust their portfolios in response to currency fluctuations. Market Analysis: • Analysts are closely monitoring these developments, with some revising their dollar forecasts downward. The shift in hedge fund positioning underscores the growing uncertainty surrounding the U.S. economic outlook. • It is important to understand that the currency markets are very dynamic, and things can change rapidly. • The effects of political events, and world wide economic changes can have very large effects on the dollar. In essence, the shift in hedge fund sentiment reflects a growing recognition of the complex economic challenges facing the U.S. As these challenges unfold, the dollar's trajectory will remain a key focus for investors and policymakers alike.
TVC:DXY
by bryandowningqln
DXY March 23 Analysis and 24 IdeaDXY March 24 Price parent bias is bear Price is Discount M/W/D Previous session Premium and discount on the daily range No News March 23 Analysis I suspect that Price is gravitating to the buy stop target noted and the daily SIBI is search of higher prices at the beginning of the week, and celebrate Price did. Wicking to the March 6 buy stop. On the daily range Price is coming up to the 50 level. Price in a Premium took session buy stops, lowered to equal sell stops in a discount in London, then rallied to March 6 buy stops and up into the Daily BISI. Great delivery. Premium to discount to Premium. Expanded higher creating equal highs in Asia, to retrace, consolidate in London, to reverse in NY and close consolidating in a premium. *Note the event horizon is to the sell side March 24 Idea I would like to see Price come down in Asia and London to the 50 maybe take the equal sell stops at the .618 and could rally for higher prices in NY. I consider that until Asia delivers all above could change. I also consider that no news today or tomorrow could create high resistance days, stay sharp.
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena
DXY + Progressive Trend Tracker + VIDYA + GANN square of nineProgressive Trend Tracker (PTT) is a development combining Bollinger Bands with Highest Highs and Lowest Lows by K.Hasan Alpay & Anıl Özekşi. As observed on the charts the reading is well above the lower band and indicating the strength in the DXY. The three green soldiers bring message of strength from the world of candle stick patterns. The VIDYA ( Variable Dynamic Moving Average is the black line on the chart and is the VAR based moving average. The price above this line also signals strength in the index. The support and resistance lines is coming from the inbuilt indicator that display nearest support and resistance from GANN Square of 9 box. The RED line is the strongest resistance here and the blue line is the moderate support.
INDEX:DXY
by satyajbims
DXY March 23 week aheadDXY March 23 week ahead Price parent bias is bear Price is Discount M/W/D Previous session Premium and Premium on the daily range News Monday 9:45 When Price lowered into the Monthly SIBI from sept 2024 for the second week but and then rallied for higher prices, I suspect that Price is gravitating to the buy stop target noted and the daily SIBI. Wait and see what Sunday does. However if we see lower prices beginning of the week we could see Price rally to the buy side target and rebalance March 6 daily SIBI be the target for higher prices.
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena
DXY March 23 Weekly Analysis DXY March 23 Weekly Analysis In hindsight it gets easier to see. Reading from the 4 hour chart I can see from March 5 price sold off to then consolidate on the 50, sells off early the next week making the low on Tuesday then rallies to engineer equal highs and closes at the 50. This past week Price come just below the 50 off consolidation again sells off early in the week making the low on Tuesday and hit deep discount and rallies closing this week in a Premium. *Note the magnet that the event horizon played this past week-learning it value. *Note price came down to below .70 on the parent range and wicked into the Monthly BISI from oct 2024 *Note that Price came to the .70 of the daily range and came through to the .618 creating equal lows. Daily chart *Note price 3 week narrowed range I pointed out earlier this week *Note Price was in a discount until Thursday coming through to a premium on the hourly chart Beginning the week consolidating on the 50, taking sell stops and creating equal lows to close. Price lowers to take sell stops and creates equal lows on Tuesday in a deep discount. Wednesday Price launches to the 50 level taking Friday/Mondays equal highs. Sells off back into a discount. Thursday rallies to just take equal highs created from March 10. Retracement to the 50 level and upper quadrant of the FVG Thursday created. Friday rallies to barely take the buy side, then wicks down to the same FVG quadrant level creating equal lows and rallies higher again taking Thursdays buy stops and creates equal highs.
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena
DXYFundamental Drivers Affecting DXY Next Week Department Responsible: US PMIs: S&P Global. Fed Policy: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). Trade Policy: US Treasury Dept Key Events and Data Releases S&P Global Flash PMIs (March 24) Manufacturing PMI Forecast: 51.9 (Previous: 52.7). Services PMI Forecast: 51.2 (Previous: 51.0). Impact: Above Forecast: Supports USD (DXY↑) on resilient economic activity. Below Forecast: Weakens USD (DXY↓) as Fed rate-cut bets rise. Trump’s Tariff Implementation (April 2) Scope: Potential 25% tariffs on EU/China imports. Impact: Risk-Off Sentiment: Safe-haven demand for USD (DXY↑). Trade War Fears: Could hurt US growth prospects, pressuring USD (DXY↓). Fed Speeches FOMC Member Bostic (March 24): Hawkish rhetoric (delayed cuts) supports DXY↑; dovish hints weigh on DXY↓. DXY Technical Outlook Scenario Bias Key Levels Catalyst Bullish=Strong PMIs + Hawkish Fed + Tariff Escalation Bearish= Weak PMIs + Dovish Fed + Tariff De-escalation Neutral= Mixed Data + Geopolitical Calm Fed’s Data Dependency: The Fed remains "meeting-by-meeting," making incoming growth, inflation, and jobs data critical for USD volatility. Bearish Momentum: DXY holds below key technical indicators , signaling a bearish bias. A break below 103.30 could accelerate declines toward 102.84 Trump Policies: Tariffs and immigration policies amplify USD volatility, with risks skewed toward stagflation (weak growth + high inflation). Conclusion Bearish Bias Dominates despite 3days buying momentum Weak PMIs and dovish Fed rhetoric could push DXY toward 102.90. or 100 Tariff escalation risks and resilient US data are the only bullish catalysts. Volatility Triggers: April 2 Tariff Deadline: Monitor for trade war escalation. Fed Speeches: Bostic’s tone will set short-term USD direction. the fed member speech will be priced in terms of stance for clear directional bias .
TVC:DXY
by Shavyfxhub