DXY Ready to Pop – Watch That 100 Break!After breaking below the key psychological level at 100 and making a low just under 98, the Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ) has entered a consolidation phase.
Over the past three weeks, price has developed an inverted head and shoulders pattern, with the neckline perfectly aligning with the horizontal resistance at 100 — a strong zone of confluence from both a technical and psychological standpoint.
Despite the current hesitation under resistance, the structure suggests bullish potential. I believe we are approaching a breakout above 100, and once that happens, an acceleration to the upside is likely to follow.
🎯 Target: 102
🔒 Invalidation: A break below 98 would cancel the bullish bias.
As long as the price stays above the 98 area, I remain bullish and expect the dollar to strengthen.
🚀 The breakout hasn’t happened yet — but the pressure is building.
USDX trade ideas
USD overstretched to the downside as traders eye US retail salesApril retail sales data is scheduled to be released at 12:30 pm GMT tomorrow and will be a closely watched report as investors seek signs of any impact derived from tariffs, as well as potential future rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve (Fed).
According to LSEG Data and Analytics, economists expect retail sales to have stagnated, following a 1.5% gain in March – the largest one-month surge since the start of 2023; the estimate range is between a high of 0.4% and a low of -0.6%. Excluding autos, retail sales are anticipated to have cooled to 0.3%, down from March’s reading of 0.5%; however, estimates range from a high of 0.7% to a low of -0.5%.
Hard data is yet to follow soft data
Heading into the event, we are aware that soft data demonstrate a soft economy, which includes consumer and business sentiment surveys. In contrast, hard data has yet to follow suit and remains reasonably robust.
You will recall that CPI inflation data (Consumer Price Index) came in lower-than-expected in April, providing a modest shot in the arm for risk assets. Should retail sales come in stronger-than-anticipated, this could fan the fire and fuel the risk rally.
The April jobs report revealed that the US economy added 177,000 new payrolls according to the establishment survey. Consisting of 167,000 new private jobs and 10,000 government roles, this defied the market’s median estimate of 130,000, though it was lower than March’s downwardly revised reading of 185,000. According to the household survey, the population increased by 174,000, and the labour force grew by 518,000, resulting in a 0.1 percentage point increase in the labour force participation rate to 62.6%. As expected, the unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%, while average hourly earnings rose by less-than-expected on both a month-on-month and year-on-year basis, increasing by 0.2% (down from the 0.3% estimate) and 3.8% (down from 3.9% expected), respectively.
On the growth side, real GDP (Gross Domestic Product) – that is, economic activity adjusted for inflation – fell to an annualised rate of 0.3% in Q1 25. However, to clarify, this is the first estimate; there are three monthly estimates to complete the quarter, with the next being the preliminary and then the final print. According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis, the slowdown in growth was largely due to increased demand for imports. Nevertheless, according to the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow latest estimate (May 8), real GDP is now expected to grow at an annualised pace of 2.3% in Q2 2025.
USD Unwind?
According to the Commitment of Traders report (COT), the US dollar (USD) is overstretched to the downside, and the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index has been largely subdued, indicating that hard data has yet to be impacted by global trade tensions. This, coupled with the Fed in ‘wait-and-see’ mode and positive sentiment fuelling USD bids following the temporary US-China trade truce announced earlier this week, leads me to remain of the view that there is a solid backdrop for a higher USD. Consequently, my preference heading into the event would be to look for a beat in the data and possible long opportunities.
The USD index remains at monthly support at 99.67, but is struggling to overthrow the 50-month simple moving average (SMA) at 102.05, as well as daily resistance from 101.92/50-day SMA. As you can see from the charts below, daily support is now in play at 100.54, and, ultimately, I am looking for this level, along with the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement ratio at 100.45, to hold ground.
Written by FP Markets Chief Market Analyst Aaron Hill
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DXY Bullish Rebound Expected! Buy!
Hello,Traders!
DXY is making a local
Bearish correction towards
The horizontal support level
Around 100.200 but we are
Locally bullish biased so
After the retest we will be
Expecting a local bullish rebound
Buy!
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Dxy 1Hr Analysis 15-May-2025The US Dollar Index (DXY) showed signs of recovery following its sharp decline in April 2025. This rebound appeared to coincide with easing concerns around trade tensions between the US and other countries, particularly China. The index climbed toward the 102 level before retreating, likely influenced by lower-than-expected CPI (inflation) data.
Looking ahead, potential scenarios for DXY include:
• A sustained move above the 101 level may open the door for a test of the 102 area. If momentum continues, market participants may observe whether the index approaches the 103–103.2 range.
• Alternatively, if DXY struggles to stay above the 101 level and a downward pressure persists, attention may shift to the 100, and even lower to the 99 level — a zone that has previously attracted buying interest.
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US Dollar Index (DXY) – Bullish Setup in PlayThe market has spoken and it’s whispering a potential bullish breakout .
As seen in the chart, the US Dollar Index (DXY) recently broke out from a short-term consolidation zone after forming a solid base near the 99.00 region. Currently, it's retesting a minor support level (highlighted by the yellow horizontal line).
Key Observation:
Price is holding above this support zone with strength. If this level holds, I anticipate a continuation to the upside as marked by the white arrow.
Target: The next major resistance zone lies near the 103.00 area, where price previously reversed. This becomes the logical next stop if the bullish momentum continues.
What I’m Watching:
Reaction from the current support zone
Strength of buyers stepping in
Any fundamental catalysts from USD-related news/events
In trading, it's not about predicting, it's about preparing. This chart reflects a classic "break-and-retest" scenario often seen before major moves.
Let’s see how this plays out over the coming days.
DXY retest of the gap and ready for bullishness
DXY retested the gap formed at the beginning of the week. The area of demand had efficiency underneath it - price swept the efficient zone, and closed in the identified zone. Price is currently bullish, but I would like to see price close above the 100.53 mark before looking for a buy trade.
USD Holds Key Res at 102 but Bulls Show Up at Higher-LowUSD came into the week with a full head of steam as price broke out to the 102.00 level on Monday. This was pushed by a strong move in USD/JPY testing 148 and EUR/USD testing 1.1100 - but then the Tuesday CPI report came out soft and that gave bulls reason to take profits on the USD.
That pullback ran vividly into early-Wednesday trade but at that point, support appeared at an important spot of prior resistance of 100.28, which was the neckline for the inverse head and shoulders pattern that led into last week's FOMC-fueled breakout.
That support has so far held and that keeps bulls in control of the trend on daily and four-hour charts. The key test now is a big batch of drivers for tomorrow morning with retail sales, PPI and a speech from FOMC Chair Jerome Powell.
At this point, EUR/USD retains bearish potential and USD/JPY bullish potential, which I'll touch on in a following post, and the door is open for Dollar bulls to make a move into the end of the week. On the other side of DXY, USD/CAD remains of interest as the pair has re-tested the psychological level of 1.4000. - js
Bullish bounce?US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 100.37
1st Support: 99.93
1st Resistance: 102.02
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Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
DXY: Absolute Price Collapse Ahead! Short!
My dear friends,
Today we will analyse DXY together☺️
The in-trend continuation seems likely as the current long-term trend appears to be strong, and price is holding below a key level of 100.450 So a bearish continuation seems plausible, targeting the next low. We should enter on confirmation, and place a stop-loss beyond the recent swing level.
❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
Slower Inflation Growth, Takes DXY lower.Overnight, the DXY traded lower, driven by 2 main factors.
1) The release of lower-than-expected CPI data at 2.3%
2) Rejection of the long-term bearish trendline and the area of confluence formed by the 61.8% and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement levels from the longer term.
If the DXY breaks below the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the shorter term, we could expect to see further downside, toward the target level of 100.
This round-number level would align with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the short-term bullish trendline.
UXY suggesting a medium-term bullish structure.riggering bullisH Awais Ali: 1. Structure & Market Context
Trend Channel: The price action is contained within a clearly defined ascending channel, suggesting a medium-term bullish structure.
Support Zone: A horizontal support area is marked around the 99.00 level, which previously served as a strong demand zone, triggering bullish momentum.
Break of Structure (BOS): A previous significant support level was broken to the downside (noted as “BOS”), indicating a change in market structure at that point. However, the current structure has resumed an upward trend.
2. Trade Setup
Current Price Level: Around 101.39.
Entry Zone: Near the midline of the channel, marked by a slight retracement after a recent high.
Target Zone: Projected at 103.009, suggesting a bullish continuation toward the upper boundary of the ascending channel.
Stop Loss Zone: Below the blue entry box, near 100.481–100.231, indicating a well-defined risk zone.
Risk-Reward: Favorable, with a substantial upside potential relative to the defined stop level.
3. Technical Indicators & Tools
Channel Lines: Used to map the upper and lower bounds of the trend.
Box Zones: Highlight entry and exit zones for trade planning.
Arrow Projection: Suggests a potential price retracement followed by continuation to the upside.
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Professional Interpretation
The chart reflects a bullish outlook on the U.S. Dollar Index, supported by a well-established ascending channel, strong support structure, and a potential correction before continuation. The trader is likely anticipating a bullish reversal from the current retracement area, targeting a new high around 103.00, which aligns with the previous swing level.
This analysis is methodical and uses sound price action principles—ideal for swing traders or short-term position traders seeking directional bias and clear trade execution zones.
Awais Ali: bullish reversal from the current re