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DXY: WILL WE GO LOWER.What's next from this point. The month of June signals the start of quarter three based on the quarterly theory.Q3 is also referred to as the distribution phase or expansion.Given that information we expect to see expansion in majority of the market charts. Our main focus is on DXY( Dollar index) which we pair against a basket of other currencies to get more insight on the foreign exchange market.We have witnessed a weak dollar in recent times. Weak is not an understatement as this is the poorest it has performed in recent years. The current prices were last seen during the covid era and has been used as baseline support for the pair in recent times.There have been a number of reasons for this and some carry more impact than others. Trade wars between the US and China have had the most impact and have been shaping up Trump's first year of his second term as president. Then lately we have witnessed the rising tensions in the middle east and feud between Islamic states and Israel. We cannot foretell how lower we will go but we can keenly follow through the structures being broken and major price points being respected which will serve as indicators to the direction taken by the dxy. With a calmer economic environment and support of strong economic data then we expect the dollar to rebound and propel higher. Not a full rebound but a play in the range between current lows and 102 which serves as the high for the previous two months.But if the current political turmoil persists and involvement of the US government in the middle eastern conflict then this will lead to an economic shakedown and an unpredictable dollar. I hope this information will serve as a guide through this quarter. # SAFE TRADING EVERYONE.
TVC:DXY
by Muchangi
Tariff uncertainty keeps weighing on the dollar. Geopolitical risks in the Middle East have eased slightly amid signs of potential negotiations, prompting markets to shift their focus back to the upcoming FOMC and tariffs. Following talks with Canadian Prime Minister Carney, President Trump stated that a trade deal with Canada could be reached within weeks, and also confirmed that a trade agreement with the UK has been signed. Meanwhile, markets are almost certain that the Fed will keep rates unchanged at the upcoming FOMC, with the probability priced at 99.8%. Wells Fargo expects the inflation outlook to rise due to the delayed impact of higher tariffs, projecting that the year-end median federal funds rate will climb by 25bps to 4.125%. DXY is consolidating within the 97.50–98.50 range, remaining below both EMAs, which suggests a potential continuation of bearish momentum. If DXY breaks below the support at 98.00, the index may retreat to 97.50. Conversely, if DXY breaches above the resistance at 98.50 and the descending trendline, the index could gain upward momentum toward 99.00.
TVC:DXY
by inkicho_exness
DXY OVERVIEW AND ANALYSIS - SELLOFF AT FOMC PRESS CONFERENCE 🟣DXY🟣 H4 CHART As we witness the unfolding of a conflict in the Middle East this week I expect the commodities of OIL and GOLD to raise more after a pullback that will offer buy entries. On my view the DXY index will pullback to the previous broken support now resistance in the 99.200 - 99.340 area and selloff to the weekly targets 97.500 and 96.800. FOMC on Wednesday should catalyse this move and I expect the pullback to take place between the first days of the week
TVC:DXYShort
by SalvoVaccaro
Central banks dominate calendar this week: Will Fed surprise?A pack of central bank decisions is set to drive market direction this week, with the Bank of Japan (Tuesday), Federal Reserve (Wednesday), Swiss National Bank (Thursday), and Bank of England (Thursday) all scheduled to announce their latest interest rate decisions. The Federal Reserve will, of course, take center stage. Despite President Trump’s continued call for a 100-basis point rate cut, Fed officials are widely expected to keep rates unchanged. However, softer-than-expected CPI and PPI data from last week may provide scope for a surprise. The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) is trading just above the key support zone at 98.00, a level not seen since early 2022. A decisive break below this area could open the door to further downside, potentially targeting the 96.00 region. However, a surprise from the Fed could trigger a rebound toward the 100.50–101.00 resistance band.
TVC:DXY
by BlackBull_Markets
$DXY Repeating 2016 Post-Election I have highlighted the 2016 to 2020 Presidential Elections time period and then pasted that timeframe onto the 2024 election and found that the pattern is going along very similarly to Trump 1.0. If we assume that the future unfolds the same as last time, which is low probability, of course, then the future will unfold as shown in the yellow bars going into the future, as shown. Initially in 2016 post election there was a 7% rally in the U.S. Dollar Index and then a 15% retreat for the following year. So far in 2025 we have seen the same rally and a similar decline, but only faster this time. It would appear as thought the bulk majority of the declines in the TVC:DXY are over at this time with perhaps 4% further downside over the balance of the year. The Dollar Index has been useful for predicting changes in the earnings estimates for the S&P500 in the USA due to the high percentage of earnings coming back to the US for quarterly reporting. I have posted a few charts in the past which have been helpful at determining the risk in the stock market. The behavior of the global central banks has certainly had its impact on monetary aggregates and inflation. The policy response since the Covid Pandemic has been for maximum liquidity and maximum Government spending to keep the global economy afloat. The post-Covid response is now coming to a head along with new policy directives to cut wasteful Government spending and to reduce inflation (caused the Gov't spending). Global investors have flocked to the US for access to high technology stocks and have driven up the value of US assets to extreme levels compared to other markets. This adjustment phase where investors remove money from overvalued, or highly valued, US assets back to other markets has created a wave of selling in the US Dollar and US listed equities. What does the future hold? We never know but we sure can learn from what happened in the past by looking at charts just like this one to see what may happen. Looks like a bounce in the TVC:DXY from here, followed by a new low and then a rebound into the next few years. All the best, Tim April 22, 2025 1:16PM EST TVC:DXY 98.78 last
TVC:DXYShort
by timwest
5
DXY H4 – Dollar Weakens Ahead of PPI Release DXY H4 – Dollar Weakens Ahead of PPI Release | Is the Market Pricing in a Fed Pivot? 🌐 Macro & Fundamental Context As we head into the New York session on June 12, the market’s attention shifts to one critical data point: the US PPI (Producer Price Index). Following the softer-than-expected CPI reading of 2.4% YoY (vs. 2.5% forecast), the Dollar Index (DXY) dropped sharply—signaling fading inflation pressure and reigniting rate cut expectations. ✅ Bearish Fundamentals Building for the USD: CPI miss fuels Fed rate cut bets (currently ~65% chance for September per FedWatch Tool). US Treasury yields are easing, reflecting the market’s pricing of a less aggressive Fed. Risk assets rallying as capital flows rotate away from USD into gold, equities, and long-duration bonds. If today’s PPI also comes in below forecast, it could confirm a deeper correction in DXY. Conversely, a surprise PPI upside might trigger a short-term pullback. 📉 Technical Analysis – H4 Timeframe 🔹 Overall Trend: DXY is locked within a clearly defined descending channel, with a consistent Lower High – Lower Low structure holding since late May. 🔹 Key Technical Zones: Short-term resistance: 98.548 – likely to act as a ceiling unless PPI surprises to the upside. Immediate support: 97.966 – a break below opens the door toward the key support zone at 97.191, which aligns with previous FVG imbalance and multi-timeframe demand. 🔹 EMA Structure: Price remains below all major EMAs (13 – 34 – 89 – 200), confirming persistent bearish pressure. EMA13 is currently acting as dynamic resistance on H4, pressing down on price. 🧠 Market Sentiment & Flow Insight Investors are rotating out of USD as inflation fears fade and Fed easing expectations increase. Risk-on sentiment is returning, benefiting gold and stocks while weighing on DXY. However, a hot PPI print could spook the market briefly, leading to a corrective bounce in the Dollar before the trend resumes. 🔍 Scenarios to Watch: PPI comes in lower than expected: DXY may retest 98.548 resistance and reject lower. Next targets: 97.966 → 97.191 PPI surprises to the upside: Technical bounce toward 98.5–98.8 possible. But trend remains bearish unless price reclaims 99.2+ zone. ✅ Conclusion DXY remains under pressure from both macro and technical angles. The PPI report will be the next catalyst that determines whether this is a short-term dip or the continuation of a broader USD downtrend. 🎯 Tactical view: Favour short positions on DXY if price bounces into resistance and PPI supports the disinflation narrative. Target: 97.1 and below.
TVC:DXYShort
by MMFlowTrading
DXY. Midterm Analysis of the US Dollar IndexHey traders and investors! 📍 Context On the monthly timeframe, the market was in a range. The price broke above the upper boundary and was long supported around the 101.080 level. This level was repeatedly tested by sellers and now appears to have been broken. 📊 Monthly targets: 89.20 and 88.300. 🔎 Analysis Why might the downward movement continue? Daily TF On the daily chart, we can see that on the day buyers returned to the 101.080 level, the main volume was accumulated in a buyer candle right at and slightly above the level. This suggests the level was defended by sellers. This indicates they are currently in control, and the decline may continue. Let’s look at the nearest potential buyer activity levels. 11-day TF The price has once again broken downward out of the range. Below, there is a small consolidation area formed during the previous upward movement. Its boundaries are: upper boundary — 97.385, lower boundary — 94.589. 🎯 Trade Idea: Rebounds from the upper boundary at 97.385 are possible, but overall the priority remains with a move into this range and towards the 95.00–94.589 zone. This analysis is based on the Initiative Analysis concept (IA). Wishing you profitable trades!
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by AlexeyWolf
DXY Asia delivery to London Delivery Analysis DXY Asia delivery to London Delivery Analysis JUNE 10 FRAMEWORK *Monday was a sell off *Current range is premium *Previous range is a discount *Minor buy side taken in dealer range *Sell side liquidity was taken at open of Asia Is today a raid the equal lows and a buy day? *Asia expanded rallied to equal highs *Retraced to the session .618 and consolidated *Previous session discount coming into London *I suspect that dxy might make a high of the week today and attack the major buy side Great analysis and great delivery. This is builds my confidence. Where I struggle to trust it when it comes time to react and make the trade I see rather than the noise I get stuck in. Very happy price played out to the Asia expansion and the highs I felt at 5 am I suspected for price to take. Celebrate what you can and keep going.
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena
DXY next trading set upHi traders I decided to share with you DXY n next possible move that can take place anytime as you can see we've been dropping and it's most about time for recovery in order to simple follow my set up don't play short games and be controlled by small move that's why you fail,you cant come with H1 N H4 analysis while am showing a big picture of the trend the reason why I don't loose trade easily is because I follow right trend not spikes or short move,that's why I laugh sometimes wen I see horrible graphs in short time frames but I've realized that they cant see what am seeing and I must just leave them in peace until they understand how market moves,I did 5 ninets n 25 minets all less than daily but they always wrong n just change meaning they are weak n fake, real shit daily n weekly you are following right trend the only way is to generate liquidity into position and they will give you right point of your entries,if you are addicted into gambling it might take you years to realize how easy it is to follow the trend,first identify the trend you want to trade know if it's uptrend or down trend or range check how it moves in bigger time frame,am not gonna entertain 5 minets trade while am using weekly n monthly time frame we are not seeing the samething,just start to position yourselfs from here until 96 if possible but is likely to gain in few days but that double buttom it looks nasty n not strong soo a bit manipulation n you'll see dxy raising again this is not a gambling my friends were you get money by mistakes you get it by knowing how to follow the system I wish you all profitable week,I will never give you entries soo that you can learn to generate liquidity into positions I do not control the market soo telling you straight point what if market won't reach those point it's useless,soo best is to shows point of interest you counter them n jump in why should I supposed to lie n talk many things that it won't even happen lols,traders I wishy you all the best n profitable week be blessed.
TVC:DXYLong
by mulaudzimpho
DXY NPF delivery and Week Ahead IdeasDXY NPF delivery and Week Ahead Ideas F DELIVERY RETRACE Sell side taken expected buy day to which price delivered *20:00 expands from equilibrium to minor buy side *22:40 judus swing fake to the down side *0:00 expands to session equal highs, previous session equal highs, and FVG *5:00 small retrace *7:30 expansion to take equal highs liquidity *8:30 ND sell side and buy side scoop *8:35 expansion to buy side *small retrace *9:00 expansion to buy side take buy side liquidity *10:00 silver bullet retraces to .70 taking session equal lows *10:30 reverses to buy side and rebalance a FVG consolidates *11:20 retraces to .618 bounces off consolidates on the 50 *1:00 expansion and then a back and forth as price moves narrowly into a consolidation to close NY JUNE 9 Ideas *Price takes key equal highs in NY *Parent bias is bear -this week bias is looking for higher prices over all *possible target for the week is the 50 at price 99.474 *Price is delivering to a premium previous session *I would expect an expansion to seek sell side liquidity in noted equal lows Monday’s delivering, if Sunday consolidates? I will watch for reactions at the session 50 just below the equal lows and go from there. Remember this can all change with Sundays delivery.
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena
US Dollar Analysis - by MMFX This is not a prediction, it never is. My bullish anticipation on the instrument is rooted from many catalyst of course, though the proof of the pudding is communicated on the charts itself. I zero in on the Weekly to Day bias on price action looking for: Market Structure, Inducement, CISD, Candle Stick Patterns, Voids/Gaps, SMT, Liquidity Sweeps, Bullish ChoCH, BOS, etc. On the 4H - 30M scope i look to refine and define the narrative. Monitoring fundamentals & lending rates on the global and domestic scale I pair this with barometers related to the index such as Treasury's, GOLD and other securities to identify if my Bullish suspicions are true.. Thank you.
TVC:DXYLong
by RickoMillenialMarkits