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DOLLAR INDEX The higher-than-expected US Unemployment Claims (247K actual vs. 236K forecast) suggest emerging softness in the labor market, increasing the likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2025. Here’s how this data impacts the Fed’s policy outlook: Key Implications for the Fed Labor Market Cooling: The uptick in claims aligns with recent trends of slowing payroll growth (Q1 2025 average: 152K jobs/month vs. Q4 2024: 209K) and a stagnant unemployment rate near 4.2%. Fed projections already anticipate unemployment stabilizing around 4.3% in 2025, but persistent claims increases could signal risks to their "maximum employment" mandate. Rate Cut Probability: The Fed has maintained rates at 4.25–4.50% since May 2025 but emphasized data dependence. Weak labor data strengthens the case for cuts, with markets now pricing in a ~60% chance of a September rate cut (up from ~50% pre-data). The Fed’s March 2025 projections flagged rising unemployment as a risk, with some participants favoring earlier easing if labor conditions deteriorate. Inflation Trade-Off: While unemployment claims rose, wage growth remains elevated (ADP reported 4.5% YoY pay gains in May). The Fed will weigh labor softness against sticky inflation, particularly in services (ISM Prices Paid index at 68.7). A cooling labor market could ease wage pressures, aiding the Fed’s inflation fight and enabling cuts without reigniting price spikes. Market Impact DXY (Dollar Index): Likely to weaken further as rate cut expectations rise. Immediate support at 98.40, with a break targeting 97.00 Equities/Gold: Potential gains as lower rates boost risk assets and non-yielding gold. Bond Yields: 10-year Treasury yields may retreat below 4.40% if markets price in dovish Fed action. What’s Next? June 6 NFP Report: A weak jobs number (<150K) would solidify rate cut bets. June 11 CPI Data: Lower inflation could give the Fed confidence to cut sooner. Fed Decision (July 31): Odds of a cut rise if labor data continues to soften. Conclusion The Fed is likely to prioritize labor market stability over inflation concerns if unemployment claims persist above 240K. While a July cut remains possible, September is the most probable start date for easing, contingent on confirming data. #DOLLAR #GOLD #DXY
TVC:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
DXY: Local Bearish Bias! Short! My dear friends, Today we will analyse DXY together☺️ The market is at an inflection zone and price has now reached an area around 98.335 where previous reversals or breakouts have occurred.And a price reaction that we are seeing on multiple timeframes here could signal the next move down so we can enter on confirmation, and target the next key level of 98.090..Stop-loss is recommended beyond the inflection zone. ❤️Sending you lots of Love and Hugs❤️
CAPITALCOM:DXYShort
by FreeXauusdSignals
1
USDollar Is Making An Intraday Pullback Within DowntrendGood morning traders! Stocks keep pushing higher along with yields, so it looks like 10Y US Notes could still see lower support levels, and that’s why USdollar is in a bigger intraday correction. What we want to say is that while the 10Y US Notes are still searching for support, the DXY can stay in recovery mode or at least sideways. In the meantime, stocks can easily see even higher levels after NVIDIA surpassed earnings. Looking at the intraday USDollar Index – DXY chart, we see a leading diagonal formation, so we are tracking now an intraday abc correction before a bearish continuation, thus keep an eye on GAP from May 18 around 101 level that can be filled and may act as a resistance before a bearish continuation.
TVC:DXYShort
by ew-forecast
DOLLAR INDEXRelationship Between the Dollar Index (DXY), 10-Year Bond Yield, Interest Rates, and Carry Trade 1. Dollar Index (DXY) and 10-Year Bond Yield The DXY and the US 10-year Treasury yield generally have a direct (positive) relationship: When the 10-year yield rises, the dollar tends to strengthen. When yields fall, the dollar usually weakens. This is because higher yields attract foreign capital seeking better returns, increasing demand for the US dollar and pushing up its value. However, this relationship is not perfect and can be influenced by other factors like economic data, geopolitical risks, and monetary policy expectations. 2. Interest Rates and Their Impact Interest rates set by central banks (e.g., Fed funds rate) influence bond yields and currency values. Higher interest rates generally lead to higher bond yields, attracting capital inflows and strengthening the currency (USD). Conversely, lower rates tend to weaken the currency as investors seek higher yields elsewhere. The interest rate differential between countries is crucial: it reflects the relative attractiveness of holding one currency over another, driving capital flows and currency movements. 3. Carry Trade and Its Role The carry trade involves borrowing in a currency with low interest rates and investing in a currency with higher yields to earn the interest rate differential. For example, investors may borrow in Japanese yen (low rates) and invest in US dollars (higher rates), buying US bonds or assets. This strategy increases demand for the higher-yielding currency (USD), pushing up its value and often correlating with rising bond yields in that country. Carry trades are typically based on short-term interest rate differentials, but recent research indicates that the entire yield curve (including long-term yields) also affects currency returns and carry trade profitability. The uncovered interest rate parity (UIP) theory suggests carry trade returns should be zero after adjusting for exchange rate changes, but empirically, carry trades have yielded excess returns, partly due to risk premia and market inefficiencies. what is UIP??? Uncovered Interest Rate Parity (UIP) is a fundamental economic theory that relates the difference in nominal interest rates between two countries to the expected change in their currency exchange rates over the same period. It asserts that the expected depreciation or appreciation of a currency will offset the interest rate differential, eliminating the possibility of arbitrage profits from borrowing in one currency and investing in another without hedging exchange rate risk. Key Points about UIP: Interest Rate Differential Equals Expected Exchange Rate Change: The difference between the interest rates of two countries should equal the expected percentage change in the exchange rate between their currencies. For example, if Country A has a higher interest rate than Country B, its currency is expected to depreciate relative to Country B’s currency by approximately the interest rate difference. No Arbitrage Condition Without Hedging: Unlike covered interest rate parity (which uses forward contracts to hedge exchange rate risk), UIP assumes investors do not hedge their currency exposure. Therefore, the expected spot exchange rate at the end of the investment horizon adjusts to offset potential gains from interest rate differences. Implication: If a country offers higher interest rates, its currency is expected to depreciate to prevent riskless profit opportunities. This reflects foreign exchange market equilibrium. Relation to Law of One Price and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP): UIP is connected to the law of one price, which states that identical goods should cost the same globally when prices are expressed in a common currency. Similarly, UIP ensures that returns on investments in different currencies are equalized once exchange rate changes are considered. Practical Use: UIP helps explain and forecast currency movements based on interest rate differentials but is often violated in the short term due to market imperfections, risk premiums, and investor behavior. In summary, Uncovered Interest Rate Parity states that the expected change in exchange rates between two currencies offsets the interest rate differential, so investors earn the same return regardless of the currency in which they invest, assuming no hedging of currency risk. 4. Bond Prices and Interest Rates Bond prices and interest rates have an inverse relationship: When interest rates rise, bond prices fall. When interest rates fall, bond prices rise. This dynamic affects currency values indirectly, as falling bond prices (rising yields) attract capital inflows, strengthening the currency and the DXY. Summary Table Factor Relationship with USD / DXY Explanation 10-Year Bond Yield Positive correlation Higher yields attract foreign capital, boosting USD Interest Rates Positive correlation Higher rates increase returns on USD assets Interest Rate Differential Drives carry trade and currency flows Larger spread favors higher-yielding currency Carry Trade Supports USD when borrowing low-rate currency and investing in USD Increases demand for USD and US bonds Bond Prices Inverse to yields; indirectly affects USD Falling bond prices (rising yields) strengthen USD Conclusion The US Dollar Index (DXY) generally moves in tandem with the 10-year Treasury yield and interest rates because higher yields and rates attract capital inflows, strengthening the dollar. The carry trade exploits interest rate differentials, further supporting the dollar when investors borrow in low-rate currencies to invest in higher-yielding US assets. Bond prices inversely relate to yields, and their fluctuations indirectly influence the dollar through these mechanisms. #DOLLAR #GOLD #
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by Shavyfxhub
Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) is risng towards the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support. Pivot: 99.10 1st Support: 98.01 1st Resistance: 99.94 Risk Warning: Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary. Disclaimer: The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
TVC:DXYShort
by ICmarkets
U.S. Dollar Index . 1MLong-term DXY (Dollar Index) Analysis Greetings to all valued followers, This is a long-term analysis and macroeconomic outlook based on Smart Money Concepts (SMC), carefully charted with key reactive zones highlighted. Within this analysis, significant support levels, imbalance zones, and liquidity pools are outlined, which can guide your market decisions as the price reaches these areas. Key Zones Based on the Monthly Timeframe Support (Monthly): 97.441 This level is considered the primary support. It’s expected that, should the price reach this zone, a reaction or corrective rally might unfold. Support (Monthly): 94.629 This is the secondary support, which acts as the next target if the previous support is broken. Typically, these supports indicate potential reversal points or short-term retracements. Imbalance Zone (Unfinished Business): Range: 91.782 – 91.436 This zone represents an Imbalance, signalling a strong disequilibrium in the market. The market will likely revisit this area to restore balance (rebalancing). Significance: It acts as a Liquidity Magnet — if the Federal Reserve fails to provide sufficient liquidity and the support line is broken, the price will tend to continue downward into this zone to gather the required liquidity for economic rebuilding and confirmation of a bearish trend. Liquidity Pool: Liquidity (M): 89.209 This is a liquidity pool where, should the bearish momentum persist, the price is expected to test or reach this level. A significant volume of buy and sell orders are accumulated here, making it a crucial target for further downside. Charting Summary and Outlook: The monthly supports at 97.441 and 94.629 are key areas to watch, with market reactions to be evaluated via Order Blocks and Break of Structure (BOS) signals. The imbalance zone between 91.782 and 91.436 may trigger a retracement within the ongoing downtrend — traders should look for confirmation signals in price action. If the market fails to gather enough liquidity in these zones, the next downside target would be around 89.209, indicating a continuation of the bearish trend.
TVC:DXYShort
by fereydoon1199
Persistent concerns about the US economy are weighing on the DXY US-China tensions deepened as President Trump criticized China’s rare earth exports and threatened broader tech restrictions and visa cancellations for Chinese students. He also vowed to double tariffs on foreign steel to 50% to strengthen the US steel industry. April headline PCE inflation eased to 2.1% (prev. 2.3%, cons. 2.2%), partly soothing tariff-related inflation concerns. DXY broke below the 99.00 threshold and dropped to a 6-week low. EMA21 is widening its gap with EMA78, suggesting a potential extension of the bearish structure. If DXY breaks below the support at 98.00, the index may decline further to 97.00. Conversely, if DXY reclaims the resistance at 99.00 and breaches above EMA21, the index could advance to 99.50.
TVC:DXY
by inkicho_exness
DXY Short-Term Reversal Zone in SightUS Dollar Index (DXY) is approaching a strong support zone at 98.90–98.00, which has historically acted as a base for bullish reversals. The price is now testing the lower bound of this zone after a steady downtrend from the 101.94 high. Key Technical Structure: Support Zone: 98.90–98.00 (tested 3+ times) Double Bottom Potential forming if bulls hold the zone Upside Targets: 101.94: Key horizontal resistance 103.50: Swing high from early April Scenarios to Watch: 🔹 Bullish Rebound: Price bounces off 98.90–98.00 support Confirmation: Break and close above 100.50 near-term resistance Could fuel move back to 101.94, possibly 103.50 🔹 Bearish Breakdown: Daily close below 98.00 would invalidate bullish setup Opens downside to 97.00 and even 95.50 Macro Drivers to Watch: FOMC speakers and interest rate guidance US jobless claims or inflation surprise Risk-off sentiment (benefits USD) vs. continued global risk appetite Conclusion: DXY is trading at a make-or-break support zone. Watch for clear bullish reaction or bearish breakdown before committing. The setup favors a bounce unless 98.00 fails.
TVC:DXYLong
by ultreosforex
3
DXY Update..PWL takenGood day traders I’m back yet again with another update but this this it’s DXY(dollarindex)). Price has taken previous week’s low, and for me that’s the manipulation phase in the power of 3 because my bias is bullish on the dollar and bearish on foreign currencies. Price has taken the PWL in a zone/area where we saw price react higher in that BPR zone/area. For the rest of the week I personally believe we can expect higher prices on DXY, Atleast till the midpoint of that gap above price. ICT teaches more on the importance of that halfway/midpoint of gaps and other PD arrays. Since we are in a discount zone we can expect price to move higher into the premium range of the daily TF dealing range and our first liquidity (internal) is also inside the premium zone.
TVC:DXYLong
by FxPipMaster_TebohoMatla
Will the Dollar’s Drop Fuel More Gold Upside After Weak PCE DXY OUTLOOK – Will the Dollar’s Drop Fuel More Gold Upside After Weak PCE and Trade Tensions? 📉 TECHNICAL STRUCTURE – DXY CONTINUES TO WEAKEN The US Dollar Index (DXY) has failed to hold the 99.20–99.30 support zone and continues to respect its bearish structure on the H2 chart. The sharp sell-off at the end of May was a direct response to weaker-than-expected PCE inflation data, combined with growing political uncertainty surrounding US–China and US–EU trade negotiations. 🔻 Key Resistance Levels: 99.234 – 99.618 🔻 Key Support Zone: 98.030 – A clean break below this may open the door toward 97.50 🌍 MACRO CONTEXT – USD UNDER PRESSURE ON MULTIPLE FRONTS Trump’s tariff decisions remain unclear. While some deadlines were delayed (e.g., steel tariffs on the EU), no substantial agreements have been reached. Core PCE inflation – the Fed’s preferred gauge – continues to ease, reducing expectations of further rate hikes in the short term. Institutional flows are shifting toward safe havens like gold, especially as uncertainty clouds the outlook for both US fiscal and trade policy. 📊 IMPACT ON XAUUSD – DOLLAR DROP GIVES GOLD ROOM TO RALLY Gold remains supported by: A weakening DXY trend A bullish structure on H1 with EMA 13–34–89–200 alignment in favor of upside Strong safe-haven demand heading into a new month with fresh capital inflows If DXY breaks below 98.70 and slides toward 98.030, gold could extend its rally toward key resistance zones at 3348 – 3361. 🎯 TRADING STRATEGY (Based on DXY Bearish Continuation): Prioritize buy setups on XAUUSD if DXY fails to reclaim the 99.23 resistance Watch for a potential DXY pullback to resistance – if rejected, this would confirm momentum for gold to climb further 📌 NOTE: Traders should stay alert to any major news from the Fed or new developments in US–China–EU trade talks. While the current DXY structure favors continued downside, short-term pullbacks can provide gold with consolidation before another leg higher.
TVC:DXYShort
by MMFlowTrading