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DXY Bearish Forecast for Quarter 2, 20251. Technical analysis The idea is based in ICT's PO3; AMD pattern. We have a rally above the open price of May 2025, to take out BSL above the highs. It also aligns with Daily tf premium arrays to short from. The lowest hanging fruit being the relative equal lows at equilibrium of the dealing range. 2. Fundamental analysis Investor's confidence in the Dollar is low due to POTUS' tariffs. ICT: Inner Circle Trader PO3: Power of 3 AMD: Accumulation, Manipulation & Distribution BSL: Buy side liquidity tf: Timeframe
TVC:DXYShort
by gabrielmike010
Dollar Outlook Ahead of Jobs ReportThe dollar index is attempting a comeback, but the 100.20–100.50 zone has so far formed a strong resistance. Today’s jobs report will be key for determining the short-term direction. Nonfarm payrolls are expected to rise by 138k. This could be the last relatively strong report before the effects of tariffs begin to weigh on the labor market. Leading indicators already show significant pressure on trade and transportation employment, though the full impact is likely to emerge in future reports. Still, we may see early signs of softness today. As the economy comes out of winter, there could be some temporary strength in weather-sensitive sectors. Overall, I expect a slight beat in today’s nonfarm payrolls data. If unemployment also holds at 4.2%, the dollar could respond positively. Positive reaction to the payrolls data usually do not pass around 1% gains. An interesting detail: TVC:DXY has risen after each of the last eight jobs reports, regardless of whether the data was strong or weak. That trend might end today, though, as the dollar is no longer in an established uptrend. If the 100.20–100.50 resistance zone breaks, the dollar could climb toward 101.50 in the coming days. However, the broader outlook remains negative. Please check our longer-term analysis here:
TVC:DXY
by ftdsystem
$VARA - VERY BULLISH SCENARIOS!!! ON $MOBILE $HELIUM ALSO!!!$VARA Update! This is not meant to be financial advice and I am not your financial advisor. These are my views and my opinions. Today I mostly go over $VARA levels and both bullish and bearish scenarios. $VARA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Tokenomic!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! -Staking rate on NOVA Wallet 34% anual -Review Tokenomics 4.13 Billion Staked up from 4.12 2.799 Billion Circulating Supply up from 2.77 -Etherium Bridge Still on Test Net -Guardian Liquid Staking on Test but making headway -VARA live on BANXA for buys only no swaps. -Not on BrainDex (yet)
TVC:DXYLong
by fritbjorn
Gold, Nasdaq & USDI am comparing the relationship between Gold, the Nasdaq and the US Dollar. Since 2000, here are approximate returns for each; Gold up 550% S&P up 254% DOW up 364% Since 2020: In the past 5 years, this shifted slightly with Gold up about twice as much as the Nasdaq. Since 2024: In the past year, Gold has outpaced the Nasdaq 5:1 on gains. __________________________________________________ The dollar had three notable high gain/peak years in; 1985 2002 2022 Those peak dollar years occurred when the market was in a correction phase, selling off before the next rally, and followed a bull market rally. After each of those peak dollar years, a market rally occurred that lasted from a few months to a few quarters with substantial gains. Typically when the dollar is strong, gold prices have been suppressed. If the dollar weakens, it may allow Gold to continue a rally. We may have already seen that market rally, which just peaked in December 2024 after the dollar peaked in 2022. If the dollar continues to lose strength, Gold prices will likely continue to rise. from Bloomberg 4 days ago: "A dollar gauge is on track for its worst performance during the first 100 days of a United States presidency in data going back to the Nixon era, when America abandoned the gold standard and switched to a free-floating exchange rate." The correlation between Gold and Equities lacks any data to support, especially considering the past 20 years of market data. Gold's relationship with the markets is an algorithm that includes the US Dollar. If the dollar is strong, we see Gold prices suppressed. When the dollar is weak, we see Gold prices unlocked and free to make gains. That's where Gold is now. Forecast: The only information available to base a forecast for Gold pricing would be the US Dollar based on the economic relationship of the USD and Gold. Since the dollar has pulled back slightly and appears to be in a slightly downward trajectory, it is expected that Gold prices will continue to gain, although likely at a slower rate. Since the Dollar peaked in 2022, followed by a bull market for several quarters after that event, the Nasdaq is likely headed further into correction territory followed by a consolidation phase before beginning another bull market. The Nasdaq is currently in the second annual financial quarter of a pullback that will likely last several more quarters. This market correction began in December 2024.
TVC:DXY
by Tradadada
DXY Bullish move| 🔹 Pair / TF | DXY, 1 h → Lower Timeframes | | 🔹 Bias | Bullish (buying potential support) | 📊 Key Levels Level: ~99.117 (orange shaded zone) Role: Recent Swing Low / Potential Support Zone Level: ~98.744 Role: Lower boundary of the potential support zone Level: ~99.727 Role: Potential Resistance (previous swing high) Level: ~100.116 Role: Higher Potential Resistance 🚨 Trigger Price has recently touched the ~99.117 - ~98.744 orange shaded zone, which appears to be acting as a potential support area. There are signs of potential rejection from this zone, indicated by the recent upward price action. Look for bullish confirmation signals on lower timeframes within this zone. ✅ Confirmation Observe lower timeframes (e.g., 15m, 5m) for bullish reversal patterns such as double bottoms, bullish engulfing candles, or pin bars forming within the support zone. The volume indicator at the bottom shows increasing buying volume within the support zone, suggesting potential accumulation. Look for the Stochastic or RSI on lower timeframes to show oversold conditions followed by a bullish crossover or break above a downward trendline. No significant bearish momentum or strong selling volume evident as price tests the support zone. 🎯 Entry & Stops | 🔶 Entry Zone | ~99.117 – ~98.800 (within the potential support zone) | | 🔴 Stop-Loss | Below the lower boundary of the support zone, potentially around ~98.600 - ~98.500 to allow for some buffer | Place a Buy Limit or Buy Stop order within the entry zone, depending on your preferred entry style and confirmation. Risk: Determine your position size based on your risk tolerance and the calculated stop-loss in pips. 🎯 Profit Targets | Target | Level | Pips (approximate) | RRR | | :----- | :--------- | :----------------- | :--------- | | T1 | ~99.727 | ~60-70 | 1 : 1 or better | | T2 | ~100.116 | ~100-120 | 1 : 1.5 or better | Scale out: Consider taking partial profits at T1. Let the remaining position run towards T2, potentially adjusting your stop-loss to breakeven or in profit. ⚙️ Trade Management Once the trade is in profit (e.g., reaching a certain pip gain or T1), consider moving your stop-loss to breakeven to protect your capital. Monitor price action around T1. If there are strong signs of selling pressure, consider closing the remaining position. Pay attention to any potential resistance levels or significant selling volume as price approaches your target levels. 🔑 Rationale Price is testing a recent swing low area, which has the potential to act as support. Increasing buying volume within the support zone suggests that buyers are stepping in. Bullish reversal patterns on lower timeframes would confirm the rejection of the support zone. Aiming for the previous swing high (~99.727) and the higher potential resistance (~100.116) provides logical profit targets. ⚡ Highlight: This is a bank-order-flow style fade, looking to buy at a potential support zone after a recent pullback, anticipating a reversal and continuation of potential upward momentum. The increasing buying volume within the support zone is a key observation.
TVC:DXYLong
by Delast2
DXY Will Go Higher! Buy! Please, check our technical outlook for DXY. Time Frame: 9h Current Trend: Bullish Sentiment: Oversold (based on 7-period RSI) Forecast: Bullish The market is approaching a key horizontal level 99.288. Considering the today's price action, probabilities will be high to see a movement to 100.788. P.S We determine oversold/overbought condition with RSI indicator. When it drops below 30 - the market is considered to be oversold. When it bounces above 70 - the market is considered to be overbought. Disclosure: I am part of Trade Nation's Influencer program and receive a monthly fee for using their TradingView charts in my analysis. Like and subscribe and comment my ideas if you enjoy them!
TVC:DXYLong
by SignalProvider
1
DXY Bears in Control ,Will 99.000 Hold or Will 97.600 Be Tested?The US Dollar Index (DXY) remains under strong bearish pressure after failing to reclaim the 100.000 🔼 resistance zone. Price is currently consolidating below 100.000, maintaining a clear bearish structure of lower highs and lower lows. Currently trading at 99.175, with Support at: 97.600 🔽 Resistance at: 100.000 🔼, 101.500 🔼, 102.812 🔼 Bias: 🔼 Bullish: A breakout and retest above 100.000 could open room for a move toward 101.500 and 102.812. 🔽 Bearish: As long as price stays below 100.000, sellers remain in control. A breakdown below 97.600 could trigger further downside. 📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by SPOT_FX
can DXY change its trend after marking 3rd HLCurrently, the price is a bit away from touching the lower trendline, which is acting as a support level as it will be its latest HL. After that, it would be interesting to know how the dollar moves because, as technical analysis on the chart suggests, DXY should move upwards to maintain that parallel channel. Tariff event, war situation and couple of other major events will also play significant role in determining the next possible movement of dollar
ICEUS:DXYLong
by faisal-101
DXY April 27 Week AnalysisDXY April 27 Week Analysis I suspected for Price to seek higher prices early in the week, not reflecting how much a magnet those key lows could be for Sundays delivery. Let that be lesson on the greed of manipulation of Prices piercing short that took place. WOW. Notice how Price did seek inefficiencies from April 2022 to rebalance and how the bodies of the candles came right to my suspected key equal lows. WOW. Notice how the wicks did the damage and the bodies stoped right on the FVG respecting the top side with its delivery. Tuesdays range and energetic force to rally away from the .618 level and rebalance the NWOG. After taking the key sell side not surprise Price took buy side on Wednesdays delivery and Prices wick came to CE of Tuesdays candle. Thursday internal range taking minor sell side and rebalanced inefficiencies. Price creates equal lows. April 25 Delivery Price took buy side in Asia, expanded lower to create intermediate equal lows in London. In NY Price took those equal lows and closed in consolidation creating equal lows in a discount on previous range. Note that Price closed above Thursday’s opening gap. Note Price current range is delivering to a premium and Fridays closed in a discount previous range. Note Price created a lower low on Monday. Previously Sunday's deliveries have been met with manipulated volatility. I wait for Sundays delivery to occur and read what the chart gives me. Logic says that Price just took minor buy side tapped the .618 and it might seek those clean equal lows. And as I already stated until Sunday delivers I wont speculate until after that. I do like the equal highs for Asia and London though. Buckle up big week. Stay calm. Trade what the chart prints. Stick to your model.
TVC:DXY
by LeanLena
Dollar False-break or break down???? 1. **Entry:** - Wait for confirmed false break below weekly deviation channel ( Short) - Enter long after price reclaims support and shows bullish reversal (long) - Alternative: Short on confirmed breakdown below channel with follow-through 2. **Stop Loss:** - False break long: Below recent swing low - Confirmed breakdown short: Above broken support level 3. **Take Profit:** - False break long: Previous resistance or mean deviation line - Breakdown short: Next major support level or extension of channel height 4. **Key Confirmations:** - Candle patterns daily and weekly - Weekly close position relative to deviation channel - Follow-through in subsequent weekly candle - Correlation check with major pairs (EUR/USD, GBP/USD) 5. **Management:** - Give trade room to develop (weekly timeframe requires patience) - Scale in to reduce risk - Scale out at significant levels
CAPITALCOM:DXY
by aryoTraderX
DXY (U.S. Dollar Index) AnalysisDXY, or the U.S. Dollar Index, is an index that measures the value of the American dollar against major currencies such as the Euro (EUR), Japanese Yen (JPY), British Pound (GBP), Canadian Dollar (CAD), Swedish Krona (SEK), and Swiss Franc (CHF). An increase in the DXY indicates that the dollar has strengthened against these currencies; a decrease signifies that it has weakened. This index is susceptible to global economic outlook, interest rates, and geopolitical developments. In the past, with Donald Trump's rise to the presidency, expectations of rising inflation in the markets had strengthened. This had caused the DXY to rise from the 100 level to 109. However, the tariffs implemented by Trump and the trade wars he initiated weakened the dollar in the long run, leading to a downward trend in the DXY. As of today, the DXY has technically reached an important support level. At the same time, major currencies forming the index, such as GBP, EUR, and JPY, are trading at resistance points. This situation increases the likelihood of the dollar reacting from this level. If the support level is maintained, we may see an upward movement in the DXY. Conversely, if the support is broken, a deeper downward movement in the dollar index may begin.
TVC:DXY
by celilADIGUZEL
DXY Long to 100 off bullish news from Trump 1. Current Data and research Macro Regime Business cycle - moving into recession territory. S&P is down from 6125 to 4842 at its lowest. That's a 21% drop - this crosses the 20% drop threshold. Inflation - Headline 2.4%. Slightly above 2% target. Core PCE is at 0.4%. This is higher than expected. Monetary Policy - Still at high interest rate levels of 4.5%. There's more room for cuts than hike in general. However, Tariffs is a spanner in this logic as it introduces inflation that needs to be controlled, and limits the cuts. Growth - Consumer sentiments - 50.8. This is a drop from 57. Not a good sign for confidence in the US markets Central Bank Outlook - Forward Guidance & Policy Path - "Wait and see" approach to see the full effects of the tariffs and will tackle. Unlikely to cut rates quickly due to inflation risks from tariffs. Flow & Positioning Factors - LDN and NY opens List of upcoming data German PMI - today US PMI - today Expectations German PMI - 47.5/50.3 - Unsure, but doubt there will be a huge surprise to the upside US PMI - 49.3/52.9 - Expect a downtrend here and close to the 49.3. It will invalidate longer-term trades if there's a huge surprise to the downside US Unemployment claims -NA -Expecting higher Bullish arguments - More pumping by Trump to prop the market up while the fundamentals are still likely to bad as tariffs are still there Bear arguments - The tariff is still the biggest elephant in the room and nothing has changed there. If anything, China has taken steps to prepare for a worse response in the future if US does not reach a negotiation. 2. Trade Thesis Directional Thesis I am expecting DXY to go back up to 100 due to a temporary strength in the USD from the good news for Fed Powell and Trump backing down in tariffs. Supporting Logic - Structural -- The DXY was holding 100 level before the Powell news. -- If the current news stays status quo, I expect prices to rise back up to that fundamental level after a brief pullback from 99.4 to 99.2 -Tactical A significant lower-high pivot point set on H1 chart. I need prices to remain above that 99 level. If it drops below, then the tactical levels do not work. - Flows Look for entry at either LDN or NY session open Expected Path - Pull back to 99.0 and now slow ascend back to 100 - There's a resistance level at 99.6. That would be TP1, and 100 would be TP2 Invalidation Logic - Fundamental Invalidation -- Trump tweets another fire Fed -- China escalates the trade war -- US PMI has a huge downside surprise (unlikely) - Price-Based Invalidation -- Price breaking below 99 Asymmetric Setup If I enter at 99.1X, this is a potential 1:4R trade with high confidence Trade Setup Entry level - 99.1 to 99.2 Scale-in plan (if any) - I can enter full size here Position sizing - 1% of account TP zones - TP1 - 99.6 - TP2 - 100 - TP3 - 101 (significant psychological level) Time stop Kill trade if a) Prices drop below 99 b) Prices do not bounce to the upside within 2 hours of LDN and NY open
TVC:DXYLong
by yuhaocooper