Bearish drop?US Dollar Index (DXY) is reacting off the pivot and could reverse to the 1st support.
Pivot: 102.05
1st Support: 100.41
1st Resistance: 103.28
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
USDX trade ideas
DXY Dual Perspective: Smart Money OB Short vs. Mid-Term LongThis chart presents two perspectives:
My Perspective (Dipanshu - GreenFireForex):
Expecting a bearish reversal from the current Order Block (OB) between 101.9 – 103.2, possibly due to inefficiency and early liquidity sweep.
ChatGPT’s Refined Perspective:
OB refined to 102.4 – 103.0 zone, aligning with imbalance and previous H4 structure break. A rejection from there is more probable.
Target:
Both views expect a drop toward the Demand Zone at 96.4 – 96.3, with bullish reversal expected from that key support.
Let’s observe whether the DXY respects early inefficiency or reaches full OB.
Comment your bias below!
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DXY Rebound or Reversal? All Eyes on the Bearish OB Zone! Analysis:
As anticipated, DXY has now swept the major weekly/monthly sell-side liquidity (SSL) at 99.58, tapping deep into a high-probability reversal zone. This aggressive liquidity raid was followed by a sharp bullish reaction—marking the first signs of potential re-accumulation or a relief rally.
Currently, price is pushing back toward a bearish order block (OB) that aligns with a dense cluster of confluences:
A weekly FVG (Fair Value Gap)
A monthly FVG that’s been previously respected
Major supply resistance from previous highs around 108.40–109.39
This confluence zone is critical.
📍 Two Likely Scenarios:
Rejection from OB Zone: If price respects the OB, expect continuation to the downside—possibly targeting a deeper structural shift and breaking below the recent SSL.
Breakthrough & Reclaim: If price breaks and closes strongly above the OB zone, it opens the door for a move toward 114.60, the next major daily buy-side liquidity.
🧠 Either outcome offers a significant macro play, especially for risk-sensitive pairs (i.e., AUD, NZD, Gold, or equities inversely correlated to USD strength). Keep in mind, DXY's movement is heavily influenced by macroeconomic events, so dollar strength or weakness can cascade across global markets.
Key Levels to Watch:
Support: 100.215 / 99.58
Resistance: 108.40 → 109.39 OB zone
Upper Target if invalidated: 114.60
⚠️ DYOR. Let price confirm before bias is committed.
DXY Ready to Pop – Watch That 100 Break!After breaking below the key psychological level at 100 and making a low just under 98, the Dollar Index ( TVC:DXY ) has entered a consolidation phase.
Over the past three weeks, price has developed an inverted head and shoulders pattern, with the neckline perfectly aligning with the horizontal resistance at 100 — a strong zone of confluence from both a technical and psychological standpoint.
Despite the current hesitation under resistance, the structure suggests bullish potential. I believe we are approaching a breakout above 100, and once that happens, an acceleration to the upside is likely to follow.
🎯 Target: 102
🔒 Invalidation: A break below 98 would cancel the bullish bias.
As long as the price stays above the 98 area, I remain bullish and expect the dollar to strengthen.
🚀 The breakout hasn’t happened yet — but the pressure is building.
DXY Update – Bullish Correction in PlayAt the beginning of the month, I mentioned that the USD Index (DXY) could start a corrective move to the upside, with the 100 level being the critical line in the sand.
Indeed, the index managed to break and hold above this psychological and technical level, currently trading around 100.70, well above the former resistance now turned support.
My bullish outlook remains intact, and I expect the upside continuation to target the 102 zone in the coming sessions.
Conclusion: For pairs like EURUSD and GBPUSD, rallies should be sold as long as this bullish momentum holds. 🚀
USDX-BUY straegy Daily chart Regression channelThe USDX shows clearly we should be cautious in selling USD, and this applies across the board. Based on channel and the extreme case we are in, we can bounced back ttowards 101.20-101.70 area in the near term.
Strategy BUY @ 97.80 - 98.20 and take proft in stages 1. @ 100.37 and 2. 101.57.
Check the trend It is expected that a trend change will form at the current resistance level and we will witness the beginning of a downtrend. If the index breaks through the resistance level, the upward trend will continue to the specified resistance levels. Then, there is a possibility of a trend change at this level.
Bullish bounce off overlap resistance?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is falling towards the pivot and could bounce to the 1st resistance.
Pivot: 97.78
1st Support: 95.22
1st Resistance: 101.81
Risk Warning:
Trading Forex and CFDs carries a high level of risk to your capital and you should only trade with money you can afford to lose. Trading Forex and CFDs may not be suitable for all investors, so please ensure that you fully understand the risks involved and seek independent advice if necessary.
Disclaimer:
The above opinions given constitute general market commentary, and do not constitute the opinion or advice of IC Markets or any form of personal or investment advice.
Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, are intended only to be informative, is not an advice nor a recommendation, nor research, or a record of our trading prices, or an offer of, or solicitation for a transaction in any financial instrument and thus should not be treated as such. The information provided does not involve any specific investment objectives, financial situation and needs of any specific person who may receive it. Please be aware, that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance and/or results. Past Performance or Forward-looking scenarios based upon the reasonable beliefs of the third-party provider are not a guarantee of future performance. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. IC Markets makes no representation or warranty and assumes no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of the information provided, nor any loss arising from any investment based on a recommendation, forecast or any information supplied by any third-party.
Dollar Index Dips – All Eyes on 97.600?The US Dollar Index (DXY) is currently trading just below the 100.000 🔼 resistance area, following a series of lower highs and lower lows that reflect a clear bearish trend. Price is now approaching the 97.600 🔽 level, which has previously acted as a key turning point and could influence the next directional move.
Support at: 97.600 🔽
Resistance at: 100.000 🔼, 101.500 🔼, 102.812 🔼, 104.223 🔼
🔎 Bias:
🔽 Bearish: The trend remains bearish while price stays below 100.000. A break below 97.600 may lead to further downside continuation.
🔼 Bullish: A bounce from 97.600 followed by a move back above 100.000 could open the door for a recovery toward 101.500.
📛 Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Trade at your own risk.
$DXYThe U.S. dollar might face downward pressure as capital shifts into safer or high-demand assets:
💰 Stocks – High quality U.S. products still attract global demand.
🪙 Bitcoin – Emerging as digital reserves.
🥇 Gold – Classic portfolio leverage in times of uncertainty.
🇺🇸 U.S. Strategy – Dollar devaluation could be a smart move to attract foreign capital. Big market = big opportunity.
👉 The U.S. needs capital to grow. A weaker dollar might be the setup.
#Forex #DXY #Bitcoin #Gold #USMarkets #SmartMoneyMoves #TheMoneyAssociation
Bond Market Breakdown: Why Yields Are Surging and What It Means 🚨 Market Recap – May 2025 Edition
This week, markets sent a clear message: rising yields are shaking the foundation. In this video, I break down the key events driving the spike in U.S.
Treasury yields — the highest in nearly two decades — and what that means for major assets like:
💵 DXY (U.S. Dollar)
📉 XAU/USD (Gold)
🟠 BTC/USD (Bitcoin)
We unpack:
Why the dollar is showing strength despite long-term fiscal concerns
How bond market stress is impacting investor sentiment across all asset classes
What rising yields mean for your portfolio — in plain language
Why this might be the most important macro signal traders are missing right now
If you’re a trader, investor, or just trying to understand what’s really moving the markets, this recap connects the dots.
📊 Watch now to stay ahead.
🔁 Feel free to share or comment with your thoughts!
#MarketRecap #BondYields #DXY #Gold #Bitcoin #MacroAnalysis #TradingView #InvestorInsights #FX #Crypto #TradingStrategy
DXY demonstrates the USD is in troubleThis week's selloff has a chance of validating last week's Shooting Star candle.
It's only Tuesday, so there's still much time left, but if the DXY does fall here, the next stop is 97.50, and then 94.75.
I don't consider 97.50 a strong level, so somewhere near 95 is more likely.
Thursday's PMI numbers could push the USD in either direction. The last print was 50.6, and anything below 50 is considered a contraction, so little room for downside is available.
This report will be more carefully watched I believe than usual.
USDX-NEUTRAL SEL strategy 3 hourly chartThe market is still showing tug-of-war attitude, and the index is under selling pressure. The 100.00 area is key to survival short term.
The indicators show negativity right now, and it feels we may see low 99.00s.
Strategy SELL @ 100.10-100.40 area and take profit near 99.17 for now.
DOLLARThe relationship between the U.S. dollar and U.S. Treasury bond yields in May 2025 reflects a complex and evolving dynamic influenced by fiscal concerns, trade policies, and investor sentiment:
Recent Trends:
U.S. Treasury yields have risen, with the 30-year yield briefly touching 5%, and the 10-year yield climbing above 4.5%, driven by concerns over rising U.S. debt and fiscal deficits following Moody’s downgrade of the U.S. sovereign credit rating. Despite this rise in yields, the U.S. Dollar Index has weakened, dropping about 4% year-over-year, reflecting reduced confidence in the dollar as the world’s reserve currency.
Typical Relationship:
Normally, higher Treasury yields attract foreign capital seeking better returns, which supports a stronger dollar. The dollar and bond yields often move in tandem, showing a positive correlation (around 0.5 over recent months). This was evident recently as the dollar strengthened alongside rising yields following a preliminary U.S.-China trade truce.
Current Anomalies:
However, in early 2025, this relationship weakened significantly. The dollar declined even as Treasury yields rose, signaling a loss of confidence in U.S. assets amid escalating trade tensions and concerns about the sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy. This decoupling suggests investors are reconsidering the dollar’s role and are diversifying away from U.S. assets.
Market Sentiment and Risks:
The downgrade and rising deficits have increased fears about U.S. fiscal health, prompting some investors to sell U.S. assets, which pressures the dollar despite higher yields. Meanwhile, tariff policies and geopolitical risks contribute to volatility in both yields and the dollar.
Outlook:
The dollar and Treasury yields have recently realigned, moving more in sync again as trade optimism returned and the Fed maintained a steady policy stance. However, ongoing fiscal challenges and geopolitical uncertainties mean this relationship remains fragile.
Summary
Aspect Current Observation (May 2025)
Treasury Yields Rising (10-year ~4.5%, 30-year ~5%)
U.S. Dollar Index Weakened (~4% decline YTD)
Typical Correlation Positive (~0.5 correlation between dollar and yields)
Recent Anomaly Dollar fell while yields rose (early 2025)
Drivers of Anomaly Fiscal concerns, Moody’s downgrade, trade tensions
Market Sentiment Reduced confidence in U.S. assets and dollar
Outlook Re-alignment underway but fragile due to fiscal risks
In essence:
While U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar usually move together—higher yields supporting a stronger dollar—recent fiscal concerns and geopolitical tensions have caused periods of divergence. Rising yields amid a weakening dollar reflect investor worries about U.S. debt sustainability and a potential shift away from the dollar’s reserve currency status. However, improving trade relations and Fed communication have recently brought the two back into closer alignment, though the relationship remains sensitive to evolving economic and political developments.
DXY Support at $100? (61.8 Fib) The USD touched down on the all-important $100 price level after a strong rally in the stock market.
This level coincides with a 61.8 fib retracement level.
Slight bounce, but what happens next is everything.
See the trend line below for possible next support if we break below the 61.8.
DXY May 20 IdeaDXY
May 20
Parent range discount
Previous range discount
Parent sentiment Bullish
May 19 Delivery
*Sunday's delivery we gap open sending price lower from premium to a discount.
*Asia opened and expanded lower and then consolidated
*London price rallied to take equal lows, inefficient delivered prices, stopping within pips of May 8 lows.
*NY retraced 50% of the run closing in a consolidation.
Did we make the low of the week?
Was this a run on sell stops cause this pair is bull bias?
May 20 Idea
Logic says price cleared out sell side liquidity, it should gravitate to inefficient delivered price from yesterdays delivery, it is in a double discount, I suspect today could be a buy day.
Considerations
1 huge range could see price in consolidation day, choppy price action, yuck
2 no news can sometimes be days where you can get chopped up too
Stay sharp read what the chart is giving to me
NO NEWS M/T/W